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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 919177 times)
Rampion
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August 14, 2014, 09:56:05 AM
 #1721

Bitcoin is on one step from long dramatic selloff imho.

Global stocks are about to crash. This monopoly game is almost over and all money and property will be returned back to the box.

Doom and gloom, baby. Doom and gloom.

The problem with predictions like that is they're almost impossible to falsify... "dramatic selloff" implies a real crash. A new capitulation low. Say, going back to $300, maybe even lower.

Or maybe not. Let's say price is going down another leg, hitting $500, maybe even high $400s. The prediction will "sound" right as well afterwards, or at least some will claim it does (while I would hardly call it "dramatic").

Same for the stock markets. "About to crash", or "entering a longer bear market"? The two are not the same, but a vague enough statement can afterwards be claimed to have "predicted" it.


That's pretty much it. $400s is hardly dramatic, it's just the usual up&down bitcoin volatility. Real drama starts in the low $300s and lower.... Real euphoria starts above $900, irrational exhuberance after ATM is broken.

If we break $450 I will start buying more coins Wink


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oda.krell
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August 14, 2014, 01:12:52 PM
 #1722

As a result of Bitfinex margin call cascade, ~$450 reached. Whether we go down further or not, I consider that deep enough to qualify as a "dramatic selloff" as predicted by masterluc.

Another plus point added to his already excellent record.

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odin.dillinger
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August 14, 2014, 01:16:34 PM
 #1723

As a result of Bitfinex margin call cascade, ~$450 reached. Whether we go down further or not, I consider that deep enough to qualify as a "dramatic selloff" as predicted by masterluc.

Another plus point added to his already excellent record.

+1

Now, if I would start to listen, and not follow my gut/greed, i might have made something of this selloff. hodling is booring!
BrightAnarchist
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August 14, 2014, 01:18:06 PM
Last edit: August 14, 2014, 01:29:15 PM by BrightAnarchist
 #1724

Bitcoin is on one step from long dramatic selloff imho.

Global stocks are about to crash. This monopoly game is almost over and all money and property will be returned back to the box.

Agreed that we're on a cusp of a big sell off.

As for a 1929/1987-style crash, however, we're not there yet. Wait for a 3-of-3, which will take some time to get to.
thefiniteidea
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August 14, 2014, 01:21:05 PM
 #1725

As a result of Bitfinex margin call cascade, ~$450 reached. Whether we go down further or not, I consider that deep enough to qualify as a "dramatic selloff" as predicted by masterluc.

Another plus point added to his already excellent record.

No no, we haven't seen the worst of it yet.

We may hang around these levels for a bit and bounce up a little even, but the worst is yet to come in the next few months...

https://twitter.com/thefiniteidea

14jNCND1PemxxHD17m2gGjScrPHWcVmduP
pinky
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August 14, 2014, 01:42:22 PM
 #1726

As a result of Bitfinex margin call cascade, ~$450 reached. Whether we go down further or not, I consider that deep enough to qualify as a "dramatic selloff" as predicted by masterluc.

Another plus point added to his already excellent record.

No no, we haven't seen the worst of it yet.

We may hang around these levels for a bit and bounce up a little even, but the worst is yet to come in the next few months...

Ok, crashing and pain, but what happens after this ends?



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Beliathon
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August 14, 2014, 01:48:09 PM
 #1727

"When others are greedy, be fearful.
When others are fearful, be greedy."
-Warren Buffet



All of this has happened before, all of it will happen again.

Remember Aaron Swartz, a 26 year old computer scientist who died defending the free flow of information.
masterluc
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August 14, 2014, 01:54:09 PM
 #1728

I feel 400 will be start of something not good


Tzupy
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August 14, 2014, 01:59:15 PM
 #1729

What do you mean? That 400$ won't hold in the near future?
IMO bids will pile up above the 420$ which held in May and provide support and then a small rally to 540$,
which once broken became major resistance. Breaking 420$ soon would be very bearish.
Breaking 420$ for good in a month or so would be normal for capitulation.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
devphp
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August 14, 2014, 02:06:24 PM
 #1730

$400 should be able to hold. However, the pessimistic scenario seems to be unfolding, which means we probably won't see $1000 for another 12 months.
Schickeria
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August 14, 2014, 02:15:18 PM
 #1731

I feel 400 will be start of something not good

My personal Maya doomster (jailed in my basement) is saying something similar. When begging him to precise his prophesy he's only muttering something inarticulately. Maybe you could precise yourself. Give us some scenarios, some numbers, something that is not so murky.

thefiniteidea
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August 15, 2014, 06:53:20 PM
 #1732

I would buy here at the bottom $480-$490 for the short term.

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JustAnotherSheep
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August 15, 2014, 09:06:34 PM
 #1733

I would buy here at the bottom $480-$490 for the short term.
Indeed, if this level holds a while longer and MACD is allowed to cross we'll have confirmed bullish div on the hourly, which would most likely signal a spike, at least short term as you say.



But of course this is not yet certain and for all I know we could still have a last minute massive drop Smiley

Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
thefiniteidea
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August 15, 2014, 09:22:04 PM
 #1734

A massive drop here would in fact be a very massive drop to sub $300...

Here's the support I am referring to:


https://twitter.com/thefiniteidea

14jNCND1PemxxHD17m2gGjScrPHWcVmduP
elebit
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August 16, 2014, 10:47:33 PM
 #1735

Here's the support I am referring to:

How are we supposed to see any support in that picture?
RyNinDaCleM
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August 16, 2014, 10:55:30 PM
 #1736

Here's the support I am referring to:

How are we supposed to see any support in that picture?

Perhaps a better question would be; What is the significance of the horizontal support at ~$275? Where did it come from?

lebing
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August 16, 2014, 11:23:59 PM
 #1737

Here's the support I am referring to:

How are we supposed to see any support in that picture?

I think he is referring to the MA that the candle is bouncing off of in that pic.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
thefiniteidea
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August 17, 2014, 12:09:24 AM
 #1738

Here's the support I am referring to:

How are we supposed to see any support in that picture?

I think he is referring to the MA that the candle is bouncing off of in that pic.

Lebing's got it.

Here's an updated pic with just the support I was referring to...


https://twitter.com/thefiniteidea

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masterluc
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August 17, 2014, 05:12:07 AM
 #1739

Although ma365 showed great support in April - this was the first time this ma was useful. So i'd not trust this curve until price reacts with it  several times in a row.

FattyMcButterpants
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August 17, 2014, 05:44:31 AM
 #1740

Although ma365 showed great support in April - this was the first time this ma was useful. So i'd not trust this curve until price reacts with it  several times in a row.

i'd agree -- doesn't seem like enough data yet to draw much conclusion from it. are you still bearish, masterluc? it looks like there is a chance that reversal off $480 could be, but seems to lack strength to the upside now.

leaning bearish myself for now.
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