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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 917126 times)
JustAnotherSheep
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January 16, 2015, 07:44:49 PM
 #2481

Latest bottom should be followed by triangle consolidation in a case of continuation.
How about a flag?



By my counts at least movements up (and down) have been of corrective structure ever since 152 bottom, which seems to support consolidation scenario here before resumption of bear trend.

Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
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bassclef
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January 16, 2015, 07:58:45 PM
 #2482

Latest bottom should be followed by triangle consolidation in a case of continuation.
How about a flag?



By my counts at least movements up (and down) have been of corrective structure ever since 152 bottom, which seems to support consolidation scenario here before resumption of bear trend.

Probably not as there's a pretty well defined top resistance area that we've been bouncing off of with lower lows since the big crash.
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January 18, 2015, 12:14:19 AM
 #2483

I am worry about price is under both daily and weekly bb, so it may accelerate down. Also I don't like latest bearish weekly macd hook.
Now this is official. Under bb for 2nd time + macd bearish hook




Next support could be found at around 120 (Sept 2013 consolidation)

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January 18, 2015, 12:35:05 AM
 #2484

Does this nullify your wedge throw-over possibility Luc?
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January 18, 2015, 01:05:07 AM
 #2485

I dont know ))

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January 18, 2015, 01:07:34 AM
 #2486

Interesting. So basically too soon to tell. Thanks for the reply!
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January 18, 2015, 01:30:22 AM
 #2487

Are you still long because of the Bitstamp thing luc?
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January 18, 2015, 02:32:26 AM
 #2488

Are you still long because of the Bitstamp thing luc?

Does his post looks like he is long, lol.

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January 18, 2015, 03:08:57 AM
 #2489

Are you still long because of the Bitstamp thing luc?

Does his post looks like he is long, lol.

He said he chose to go long a while ago because of the risk of using Bitstamp. I'm sure he would have traded otherwise. I was wondering if he is prepared to use another exchange because I'm in a similar position and don't really trust any of them. I'm pondering which one with decent liquidity is the least risky.

Went out mostly long due to bitstamp incident
Isn't this the opposite of what people usually do?

I'd prefer to wait for current levels for long, but yes, risk with bitstamp was high.
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January 18, 2015, 03:18:12 AM
 #2490

Are you still long because of the Bitstamp thing luc?

Does his post looks like he is long, lol.

He said he chose to go long a while ago because of the risk of using Bitstamp. I'm sure he would have traded otherwise. I was wondering if he is prepared to use another exchange because I'm in a similar position and don't really trust any of them. I'm pondering which one with decent liquidity is the least risky.

Went out mostly long due to bitstamp incident
Isn't this the opposite of what people usually do?

I'd prefer to wait for current levels for long, but yes, risk with bitstamp was high.

Last I knew, he trades on BTC-e, but the spill-over effect from the BS hack is probably what he was waiting for.
He may have moved to BS, but Not afaik. Now, with the price well below the Weekly BB and the Weekly MACD hooking down, is not the time to be long. So I doubt he's long more than a small percentage.

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January 18, 2015, 10:32:19 AM
 #2491

Are you still long because of the Bitstamp thing luc?

Does his post looks like he is long, lol.

He said he chose to go long a while ago because of the risk of using Bitstamp. I'm sure he would have traded otherwise. I was wondering if he is prepared to use another exchange because I'm in a similar position and don't really trust any of them. I'm pondering which one with decent liquidity is the least risky.

Went out mostly long due to bitstamp incident
Isn't this the opposite of what people usually do?

I'd prefer to wait for current levels for long, but yes, risk with bitstamp was high.

Last I knew, he trades on BTC-e, but the spill-over effect from the BS hack is probably what he was waiting for.
He may have moved to BS, but Not afaik. Now, with the price well below the Weekly BB and the Weekly MACD hooking down, is not the time to be long. So I doubt he's long more than a small percentage.

Considering the price just shot up by $20 it was a good time to be long last night. How come it went up with the Weekly BB and the Weekly MACD hooking down?
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January 18, 2015, 10:38:35 AM
 #2492

Because bulls are trying to push the price up to close inside weekly BB. That would form pretty bullish candle too.

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January 18, 2015, 02:36:46 PM
 #2493

Are you still long because of the Bitstamp thing luc?

Does his post looks like he is long, lol.

He said he chose to go long a while ago because of the risk of using Bitstamp. I'm sure he would have traded otherwise. I was wondering if he is prepared to use another exchange because I'm in a similar position and don't really trust any of them. I'm pondering which one with decent liquidity is the least risky.

Went out mostly long due to bitstamp incident
Isn't this the opposite of what people usually do?

I'd prefer to wait for current levels for long, but yes, risk with bitstamp was high.

Last I knew, he trades on BTC-e, but the spill-over effect from the BS hack is probably what he was waiting for.
He may have moved to BS, but Not afaik. Now, with the price well below the Weekly BB and the Weekly MACD hooking down, is not the time to be long. So I doubt he's long more than a small percentage.

Considering the price just shot up by $20 it was a good time to be long last night. How come it went up with the Weekly BB and the Weekly MACD hooking down?

Besides what seleme said, Weekly indicators take a lot of time to move. There will be many fluctuations until it moves back into bullish territory. I just know that luc trades more on the longer term (according to this thread anyway) rather than intraday swings, so this rise would not have even registered on the weekly indicators. Of course if he was a scalper, he would have seen the bull flag which has a target of around 240-250 and traded it, but that isn't his (public?) style.

So put that cork back in the bottle of Dom, because we are still below the spike off the bottom.

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January 18, 2015, 04:34:51 PM
 #2494

Normally I don't do EW, but this seems blatantly obvious to me.

Or can somebody invalidate that count?
RyNinDaCleM
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January 18, 2015, 04:53:58 PM
 #2495

Normally I don't do EW, but this seems blatantly obvious to me.

Or can somebody invalidate that count?


Nope! It is completely valid

molecular
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January 18, 2015, 04:57:54 PM
 #2496

Nicely done Swiss CB.

They just completely fucked over their export business. Whatever reason they had, it must be a good one. They next few weeks should be interesting to say the least.
Probably they got tired of buying billions of euros to enforce the cap. The current account surplus is too high and needs to balance itself.

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WaaatiB
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January 18, 2015, 06:05:06 PM
 #2497

Normally I don't do EW, but this seems blatantly obvious to me.

Or can somebody invalidate that count?
http://i.imgur.com/2Od0fn9.png

Nope! It is completely valid


Does that mean that we should expect at least 1~2years of bear-market ? That doesn't seem right to me.  Huh
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January 18, 2015, 06:27:51 PM
 #2498

Normally I don't do EW, but this seems blatantly obvious to me.

Or can somebody invalidate that count?


Nope! It is completely valid


Does that mean that we should expect at least 1~2years of bear-market ? That doesn't seem right to me.  Huh

Validity != correctness Wink

It is a possible scenario, but not necessarily THE scenario and it's definitely not the only possible scenario. The correction could be done in a few weeks. See that A on the right side of EM's pic? To build that A, there is an ABC within it, so that can be the extent of the whole correction.

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January 18, 2015, 07:19:44 PM
 #2499

Today's price action resembles the one of November 4th to 7th 2014, but looks artificial - could be because the market moves about 5 - 6 times faster.
To confirm this scenario we should see a double bottom in price and maybe in market indicators, followed by at least another round of pumps.
And 30min MACD should stay positive. Also, 30min PSAR should flip back to bullish.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
ronald98
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January 18, 2015, 07:43:12 PM
 #2500

Today's price action resembles the one of November 4th to 7th 2014, but looks artificial - could be because the market moves about 5 - 6 times faster.
To confirm this scenario we should see a double bottom in price and maybe in market indicators, followed by at least another round of pumps.
And 30min MACD should stay positive. Also, 30min PSAR should flip back to bullish.

Do you mean a double bottom at ~150 or a different double bottom?
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