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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 916522 times)
Tzupy
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January 18, 2015, 07:59:29 PM
 #2501

Today's price action resembles the one of November 4th to 7th 2014, but looks artificial - could be because the market moves about 5 - 6 times faster.
To confirm this scenario we should see a double bottom in price and maybe in market indicators, followed by at least another round of pumps.
And 30min MACD should stay positive. Also, 30min PSAR should flip back to bullish.

Do you mean a double bottom at ~150 or a different double bottom?

30 min MACD wouldn't stay positive with a large drop to 150$. I mean a double bottom in this price range. Problem is, I don't know the time scale for it.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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Tzupy
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January 19, 2015, 01:01:39 AM
 #2502

Today's price action resembles the one of November 4th to 7th 2014, but looks artificial - could be because the market moves about 5 - 6 times faster.
To confirm this scenario we should see a double bottom in price and maybe in market indicators, followed by at least another round of pumps.
And 30min MACD should stay positive. Also, 30min PSAR should flip back to bullish.

So far, 30 min MACD divergence flipped to green and 30 min PSAR flipped to bullish, the pumps might follow soon, but I'm too tired, good night.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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January 19, 2015, 11:03:25 AM
 #2503

No pumps as expected, they are still possible if the market recovers, but the 30 min MACD looks bearish now.
I am staying in fiat and waiting for the signs of a new pump, maybe this time I'll catch it.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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January 19, 2015, 11:11:08 AM
 #2504

No pumps as expected, they are still possible if the market recovers, but the 30 min MACD looks bearish now.
I am staying in fiat and waiting for the signs of a new pump, maybe this time I'll catch it.

i sit in fiat as well, put orders in the 160-120 range. how's that as a strategy? safe? ^^
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January 19, 2015, 01:58:58 PM
 #2505

^^^^^^
Safe but not safe enough. If price collapses all the way down to $120, it will COLLAPSE even further, like to $60 and below for certain.
itod
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January 19, 2015, 02:12:13 PM
 #2506

^^^^^^
Safe but not safe enough. If price collapses all the way down to $120, it will COLLAPSE even further, like to $60 and below for certain.

Agree that $120 is possible, but don't see why would it lead to $60. That's a gigantic collapse, why would that be inevitable?
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January 20, 2015, 12:17:12 AM
 #2507

All good things must come to an end. And all bad things as well. Big, fat bullish divergence on weekly VWMACD (= MACD based on volume-weighted close).





Doesn't mean we're at the end of the bear market for sure. For one, weekly (green) candle not closed yet, so the latest divergence isn't locked in yet. Also, on such a big time scale (weekly), there's plenty of room for smaller moves down (daily, hourly, etc). Finally, while divergences are useful tools, they're just a way to lay bare signs of trend exhaustion, but they're not always accurate in predicting a reversal.

All that said, the above is an indication that the correction is losing steam, in the form of weakening downside momentum/volume, while price plows ahead to new lows. Which could be a sign that we're getting nearer to the end of the (2013)-2014-(2015) bear market.

Comments?

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January 20, 2015, 12:37:12 AM
 #2508


Comments?

voodooo :-)
no one knows
RyNinDaCleM
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January 20, 2015, 02:49:30 AM
 #2509

All good things must come to an end. And all bad things as well. Big, fat bullish divergence on weekly VWMACD (= MACD based on volume-weighted close).





Doesn't mean we're at the end of the bear market for sure. For one, weekly (green) candle not closed yet, so the latest divergence isn't locked in yet. Also, on such a big time scale (weekly), there's plenty of room for smaller moves down (daily, hourly, etc). Finally, while divergences are useful tools, they're just a way to lay bare signs of trend exhaustion, but they're not always accurate in predicting a reversal.

All that said, the above is an indication that the correction is losing steam, in the form of weakening downside momentum/volume, while price plows ahead to new lows. Which could be a sign that we're getting nearer to the end of the (2013)-2014-(2015) bear market.

Comments?

What does the actual MACD and signal lines look like? Personally, I've never really liked histogram divergence. It can work but it produces a lot of false signals.
I do agree it is very close, but I do not think the bull is upon us, yet. I have been watching the standard MACD on the Daily chart since October, and while we do have divergence locked in right now (narrowly), I am looking for one more larger divergence before we are done. This gives the lower time frames a chance to finish their respective cycles, producing their own divergences. Then it's off we go.

Of course, as with the first rally off the $1.994 bottom, this will start off a little slow (after the initial bounce). There will be a lot of indecision and uncertainty about what is next. People will think it's just another pull-back and will sell. This is normal and expected. We will eventually power through the selling and pull away in the new trend toward ATH's. All that is needed now is a little patience. We will get there. It will come, and it will be glorious. Cool

oda.krell
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January 20, 2015, 10:45:32 AM
 #2510

All good things must come to an end. And all bad things as well. Big, fat bullish divergence on weekly VWMACD (= MACD based on volume-weighted close).





Doesn't mean we're at the end of the bear market for sure. For one, weekly (green) candle not closed yet, so the latest divergence isn't locked in yet. Also, on such a big time scale (weekly), there's plenty of room for smaller moves down (daily, hourly, etc). Finally, while divergences are useful tools, they're just a way to lay bare signs of trend exhaustion, but they're not always accurate in predicting a reversal.

All that said, the above is an indication that the correction is losing steam, in the form of weakening downside momentum/volume, while price plows ahead to new lows. Which could be a sign that we're getting nearer to the end of the (2013)-2014-(2015) bear market.

Comments?

What does the actual MACD and signal lines look like? Personally, I've never really liked histogram divergence. It can work but it produces a lot of false signals.
I do agree it is very close, but I do not think the bull is upon us, yet. I have been watching the standard MACD on the Daily chart since October, and while we do have divergence locked in right now (narrowly), I am looking for one more larger divergence before we are done. This gives the lower time frames a chance to finish their respective cycles, producing their own divergences. Then it's off we go.

Of course, as with the first rally off the $1.994 bottom, this will start off a little slow (after the initial bounce). There will be a lot of indecision and uncertainty about what is next. People will think it's just another pull-back and will sell. This is normal and expected. We will eventually power through the selling and pull away in the new trend toward ATH's. All that is needed now is a little patience. We will get there. It will come, and it will be glorious. Cool


Jup, absolutely valid objection: MACD hist/bar graph divergences seem less reliable (in my limited experience) than divergences on MACD proper. Probably because the bar graph is an estimate of the second derivative, so the divergence being picked up might be a bit too subtle to have much influence.  Anyway, to answer your question: no comparable divergence on MACD itself.

About the rest: no disagreement there. Didn't want to imply I expect a big bull run anytime soon. Just that the divergence above is one way that there's evidence that selling pressure is waning, even though price action is still extremely bearish - hence, a divergence, and often/sometimes/occasionally an early warning that the existing trend is about to come to an end.



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Altcoin Agent
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January 23, 2015, 08:07:30 AM
 #2511

It seemed lke we were going to break out but... today there was a little breakdown, seems like the resistance held. Downtrend resuming ?
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January 23, 2015, 09:43:03 AM
 #2512

It seemed lke we were going to break out but... today there was a little breakdown, seems like the resistance held. Downtrend resuming ?
Well by my counts we have approximately hit the target for an abc since 190 level and I think should be going down at least for now. Although my a could be interpreted as a i, and c as an either underextended or (more likely) unfinished iii (invalidated at breach of 222 and 218 respectively), which could mean we're in C of a larger ABC since bottom levels with a possible target of >260. Also c itself could be unfinished, meaning we have one more small wave up to go (again invalidated at 218 cross).

Bearish divergence between 234 and 239 peaks on 1h MACD (and 222-239 on lower timescales) seems to indicate the uptrend is losing strength, though it is slight so there could be room for yet more up with stacking divs, or they could be invalidated completely. Chessnut at least seems to believe the rise is impulsive altogether and we have reached final bottom, however personally I'm doubtful and think it's wishful thinking heh.

But I am just a noobish sheep, so you'll have to ask someone more well-versed in EW if these counts/interpretations are even valid to begin with Smiley

Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
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January 25, 2015, 06:06:08 AM
 #2513

Situation so far (bear pennant). But... wedges in bitcoin love to break opposite ))


RyNinDaCleM
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January 25, 2015, 06:16:23 AM
 #2514

Situation so far (bear pennant). But... wedges in bitcoin love to break opposite ))



Bitstamp SC chart isn't updating for you either, eh?
I don't know what the deal is, when other services still have connection. It must be on the SC end in which case, what are we paying for?

masterluc
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January 25, 2015, 06:20:55 AM
 #2515

Yes, it frozen

JustAnotherSheep
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January 25, 2015, 07:08:18 AM
Last edit: January 25, 2015, 07:18:45 AM by JustAnotherSheep
 #2516

Same problem. Sent a support ticket last night, to which they replied;

Quote from: Sierra Chart Engineering
We are looking into this problem. There is a problem establishing the secure connection to the Bitstamp server from our server.

:/ hopefully they'll fix it soon

Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
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January 25, 2015, 08:20:31 AM
 #2517

Looks like we passed through the SMA20 for the first time since November. Upper bound on bollinger here is 300, so I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit that or exceed before correcting.


Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
masterluc
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January 26, 2015, 08:06:34 AM
 #2518

At hard resistance











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January 26, 2015, 08:08:40 AM
 #2519

At hard resistance





I don't think it even pauses

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masterluc
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January 26, 2015, 08:13:23 AM
 #2520

If this wedge will blow up it will be epic



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