Analysis

[ssmc2]

Prediction in act.

On 208 hit next target 120.

Luc, if we see a high volume bounce back up off of 208-210 would that signal to you the end of bear?

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[masterluc]

I need picture of this virtual bounce along with indicators to answer )

[molecular]

Prediction in act.

On 208 hit next target 120.

when you called multi-year long bear market... I didn't believe it.

this prediction: I also don't believe it.

will I ever learn? we will see.

[lebing]

Prediction in act.

On 208 hit next target 120.

when you called multi-year long bear market... I didn't believe it.

this prediction: I also don't believe it.

will I ever learn? we will see.

Well we have been getting a huge amount of good news lately, so hey maybe Luc is right.

[btc4lifer]

Well we have been getting a huge amount of good news lately, so hey maybe Luc is right.

good news + bear market === DOWN

[birr]

Leverged longs are diverging from price
https://tradeblock.com/blog/bitcoin-leverage-and-price-diverge-for-the-first-time-in-2015
What is the significance of this?

[BTCtrader71]

Leverged longs are diverging from price
https://tradeblock.com/blog/bitcoin-leverage-and-price-diverge-for-the-first-time-in-2015
What is the significance of this?

Perhaps it means someone is loading up on longs in preparation for a sudden pump up in price? I seem to recall this happened on bfx when the price shot up briefly to ~ $450 several months ago. (I really have no idea; that's just the first guess that comes to mind. I'm not sure I believe in the whole manipulation-of-price-by-whales mentality.)

For some reason I had to go to their blog:
https://tradeblock.com/blog/
and click on the link to the blog entry; following the longer link above, it never loaded.

[dnaleor]

Every PoW fork uses limited resource - electrical power to enforce it's security. As long as power is limited, miners aim to mine more popular fork. More popular is more secure and visa versa.

So more popular and secure fork drain power, security and popularity from all others. One most popular PoW fork kills others by its existence.

This is long fork threat.

Bitcoin is like Saturn god eating his children.

So Bitcoin is eating shit?

[smoothie]

I'd like to share some thoughts about altcoins rise-fall-death cycle.

I noticed when Bitcoin enters some long bearish cycle - always appears some fork which starts to rise to btc. NMC, LTC and now DRK. After some time fork dies and next fork appears. So I'll try to analyze this phenomenon.

Let's call next fork "shit".

1. When Bitcoin enters some noticed bearish cycle, people start to be bored. They want permanent rally.
2. Bored people look around and here is a "shit". The same Proof Of Work  shit as Bitcoin, but has some special features.
3. "Oh my god, it's a new paradigm! " - people say and start to sell bitcoin and buy shit. Bitcoin bearish phase accelerates.
4. Meanwhile shit market saturates,  Bitcoin market passing capitulation phase and starts to recover. Bitcoin becomes bullish.
5. People keeping shit - watch for rise of Bitcoin. They move their funds back and create additional bullish acceleration to bitcoin. Shit drops.
6. Bitcoin market saturates and enters correction.
7. Back to point 1.

I call it "small shit cycle", when Bitcoin and shit go in antiphase.

Every alt fork makes few shit cycles and then slowly goes to a toilet pan. Because new alt with "new paradigm" appears and enters it's first shit cycle, it's first step to a pan.

I call it "big shit cycle" - when shit after few cycles goes to a pan and another shit appears.

Meanwhile, every altcoin place is a pan because of "Long fork theorem" which CJDNS founder told me in IRC in 2012.

This is only theoretical thoughts, based on multi year market observations. I hope in some time I'll make a science paper. Hehe.

Define the word "die".

Nmc and LTC are still alive as far as I can tell. 

[oda.krell]

Not sure I agree with luc on the shitcoin theory (long-term XMR/BBR/DRK shill here ^_^), but as always, a pleasure to read his views on the technical side of BTC. We're glad to have him here Tip sent.

[Xiaoxiao]

So Luc, what is your prognosis now?  Looks like it is stagnating around 240-255... doesn't want to go above 255 and doesn't want to go below 235... When this tends to happen, it's followed the long term downward trend, so it looks like your analysis will come to fruition.  However, do you think this time it might be different then the previous several waves?

[wpalczynski]

I am interested as well in what your thoughts Luc are about price movements.  From the charts it looks like it could go either way but somehow I just don't believe it will drop given the imminent release to the public of the Bitcoin ETF next week.

[Xiaoxiao]

I am interested as well in what your thoughts are about price movements.  From the charts it looks like it could go either way but somehow I just don't believe it will drop given the imminent release to the public of the Bitcoin ETF next week.

It doesn't really change anything imo because people who knew about bitcoin had the chance to buy bitcoin way before the ETF, and people who don't know about bitcoin won't know about bitcoin because there is an ETF in their brokerage account out of the millions of other funds.  I mean, someone eager to buy bitcoin isn't counting down to the day the ETF will launch so he can buy BTC's.  He would have bought already via circle, coinbase, lbc, stamp, etc a lot earlier.  The big money could buy at anytime via 2nd trust or I believe there is another fund that has huge minimums.

And for us speculators, well we already knew about the ETF a long time ago.

[wpalczynski]

I am interested as well in what your thoughts are about price movements.  From the charts it looks like it could go either way but somehow I just don't believe it will drop given the imminent release to the public of the Bitcoin ETF next week.

It doesn't really change anything imo because people who knew about bitcoin had the chance to buy bitcoin way before the ETF, and people who don't know about bitcoin won't know about bitcoin because there is an ETF in their brokerage account out of the millions of other funds.  I mean, someone eager to buy bitcoin isn't counting down to the day the ETF will launch so he can buy BTC's.  He would have bought already via circle, coinbase, lbc, stamp, etc a lot earlier.  The big money could buy at anytime via 2nd trust or I believe there is another fund that has huge minimums.

And for us speculators, well we already knew about the ETF a long time ago.

I concur with most of what you wrote however I think there is a very large class of potential investors who would not consider buying anything unless they can do so through their brokerage accounts.  Those same people have been hearing about Bitcoin for a long time now but had no channel to invest, a channel which is acceptable to them.

[hdbuck]

I am interested as well in what your thoughts are about price movements.  From the charts it looks like it could go either way but somehow I just don't believe it will drop given the imminent release to the public of the Bitcoin ETF next week.

It doesn't really change anything imo because people who knew about bitcoin had the chance to buy bitcoin way before the ETF, and people who don't know about bitcoin won't know about bitcoin because there is an ETF in their brokerage account out of the millions of other funds.  I mean, someone eager to buy bitcoin isn't counting down to the day the ETF will launch so he can buy BTC's.  He would have bought already via circle, coinbase, lbc, stamp, etc a lot earlier.  The big money could buy at anytime via 2nd trust or I believe there is another fund that has huge minimums.

And for us speculators, well we already knew about the ETF a long time ago.

I concur with most of what you wrote however I think there is a very large class of potential investors who would not consider buying anything unless they can do so through their brokerage accounts.  Those same people have been hearing about Bitcoin for a long time now but had no channel to invest, a channel which is acceptable to them.

meh this no analysis. more like gossip.

[windjc]

I am interested as well in what your thoughts are about price movements.  From the charts it looks like it could go either way but somehow I just don't believe it will drop given the imminent release to the public of the Bitcoin ETF next week.

What imminent release?

[wpalczynski]

I am interested as well in what your thoughts are about price movements.  From the charts it looks like it could go either way but somehow I just don't believe it will drop given the imminent release to the public of the Bitcoin ETF next week.

What imminent release?

Read this: http://www.cnbc.com/id/102549768

[Xiaoxiao]

I am interested as well in what your thoughts are about price movements.  From the charts it looks like it could go either way but somehow I just don't believe it will drop given the imminent release to the public of the Bitcoin ETF next week.

What imminent release?

Read this: http://www.cnbc.com/id/102549768

No where does it say that in the article.

[seleme]

I am interested as well in what your thoughts are about price movements.  From the charts it looks like it could go either way but somehow I just don't believe it will drop given the imminent release to the public of the Bitcoin ETF next week.

It doesn't really change anything imo because people who knew about bitcoin had the chance to buy bitcoin way before the ETF, and people who don't know about bitcoin won't know about bitcoin because there is an ETF in their brokerage account out of the millions of other funds.  I mean, someone eager to buy bitcoin isn't counting down to the day the ETF will launch so he can buy BTC's.  He would have bought already via circle, coinbase, lbc, stamp, etc a lot earlier.  The big money could buy at anytime via 2nd trust or I believe there is another fund that has huge minimums.

And for us speculators, well we already knew about the ETF a long time ago.

I concur with most of what you wrote however I think there is a very large class of potential investors who would not consider buying anything unless they can do so through their brokerage accounts.  Those same people have been hearing about Bitcoin for a long time now but had no channel to invest, a channel which is acceptable to them.

That ETF could eventually cause some short term rise but overall it's bearish as fuck as it finally gives a chance for all those investors who bought at 600-800 to cut their loses which they were not able to do so far.

[RyNinDaCleM]

I am interested as well in what your thoughts are about price movements.  From the charts it looks like it could go either way but somehow I just don't believe it will drop given the imminent release to the public of the Bitcoin ETF next week.

What imminent release?

Read this: http://www.cnbc.com/id/102549768

No where does it say that in the article.

The first line of the article

"Investors soon could begin trading shares of the first investment vehicle tied to bitcoin..."