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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 916602 times)
muhrohmat
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April 22, 2015, 09:50:44 AM
 #2761

well in the last chart i can see a detailed graphic of long term stable and rise to 500 dollars in 2 years the BTC but with some flocutations even in ending of years

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molecular
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April 22, 2015, 11:17:58 AM
 #2762

well in the last chart i can see a detailed graphic of long term stable and rise to 500 dollars in 2 years the BTC but with some flocutations even in ending of years

btc definitely flocutates too much, still.

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April 22, 2015, 12:25:03 PM
 #2763

How low do you reckon we could go?

Courtesy of myself (the user, not me)
img snipped...

Riiiiight. Such delusion at the end of a bear market.

See, you guys read it all wrong. That chart isn't targeting $.05 for this correction (though I know it looks like that with the box and the note), it means we are correcting the entire history of Bitcoin. Not just the 2013 euphoria phase.

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April 22, 2015, 12:48:11 PM
 #2764

See, you guys read it all wrong. That chart isn't targeting $.05 for this correction (though I know it looks like that with the box and the note), it means we are correcting the entire history of Bitcoin. Not just the 2013 euphoria phase.

Get it now, wasn't clear to me at first glance.

Besides "we won't retrace 100% of wave 1", is there any other price level prediction that can be derived from that parse?

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April 22, 2015, 01:06:47 PM
 #2765

See, you guys read it all wrong. That chart isn't targeting $.05 for this correction (though I know it looks like that with the box and the note), it means we are correcting the entire history of Bitcoin. Not just the 2013 euphoria phase.

aah! thanks for clearing that up. I read it wrong, too.

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Natalia_AnatolioPAMM
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April 22, 2015, 02:09:38 PM
 #2766

well in the last chart i can see a detailed graphic of long term stable and rise to 500 dollars in 2 years the BTC but with some flocutations even in ending of years
I don't see any rises possible. bitcoin's  not the one to survive
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April 22, 2015, 07:25:17 PM
 #2767

ITT people see what they want see...

I'm leaning towards 'more downside' as well (expecting to see sub-200 again, for example), but you'll note that luc didn't say "New lower low incoming", but rather "Further price collapse is possible, but not required".

Also, prices an order of magnitude lower than current price (i.e. ryn's myself chart) are pretty unlikely in my opinion, unless catastrophic protocol failure or "global crypto ban" happens. It took more than a year for price to deflate 75% (as measured by a 20 day average), and we're already showing signs of selling exhaustion, so I wouldn't bet much on pre-2013 prices.

Prediction in act.

On 208 hit next target 120.

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April 22, 2015, 08:39:09 PM
 #2768

Gold h&s


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April 22, 2015, 09:03:40 PM
 #2769

See, you guys read it all wrong. That chart isn't targeting $.05 for this correction (though I know it looks like that with the box and the note), it means we are correcting the entire history of Bitcoin. Not just the 2013 euphoria phase.

Get it now, wasn't clear to me at first glance.

Besides "we won't retrace 100% of wave 1", is there any other price level prediction that can be derived from that parse?


Higher than 32 USD/BTC (wave 1)
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April 23, 2015, 06:42:33 AM
 #2770

Gold h&s

sorry, can someone explain the implications should it play out? Is head and shoulders a continuation pattern or bearish or what?

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April 23, 2015, 06:47:20 AM
 #2771

Gold h&s

sorry, can someone explain the implications should it play out? Is head and shoulders a continuation pattern or bearish or what?


exactly what happened to bitcoin not even a month ago. how did it played out?
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April 23, 2015, 07:03:15 AM
Last edit: April 23, 2015, 07:21:05 AM by Wary
 #2772

Gold h&s

sorry, can someone explain the implications should it play out? Is head and shoulders a continuation pattern or bearish or what?

According to the picture - bearish. If price reaches black rectangle - short, when it reaches blue one - cover, but if it goes up instead and reaches red rectangle - cut your losses.

Fairplay medal of dnaleor's trading simulator. Smiley
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April 23, 2015, 11:10:54 AM
 #2773

Gold h&s

sorry, can someone explain the implications should it play out? Is head and shoulders a continuation pattern or bearish or what?


I sent this one for silver to my dad. Maybe it will explain better.


Those pink vertical lines are the same height but this is log scale. The point of neckline break is approximated so it may be sooner or later than I have drawn.

Edit:
The problem with H&S is they don't confirm until they complete. There could be a false break below the neckline and it could break back above on the retest.

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April 24, 2015, 10:57:39 AM
 #2774

ITT people see what they want see...

I'm leaning towards 'more downside' as well (expecting to see sub-200 again, for example), but you'll note that luc didn't say "New lower low incoming", but rather "Further price collapse is possible, but not required".

Also, prices an order of magnitude lower than current price (i.e. ryn's myself chart) are pretty unlikely in my opinion, unless catastrophic protocol failure or "global crypto ban" happens. It took more than a year for price to deflate 75% (as measured by a 20 day average), and we're already showing signs of selling exhaustion, so I wouldn't bet much on pre-2013 prices.

Prediction in act.

On 208 hit next target 120.

a) 208 not hit (yet?). Keep the salivation reflex in control Smiley

b) Even then, still missing what luc's main point was. Relevant parts again:
1. Further price collapse is possible, but not required, and
2. Very fucking long "silence phase" (after final collapse)

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April 24, 2015, 12:13:57 PM
 #2775

ITT people see what they want see...

I'm leaning towards 'more downside' as well (expecting to see sub-200 again, for example), but you'll note that luc didn't say "New lower low incoming", but rather "Further price collapse is possible, but not required".

Also, prices an order of magnitude lower than current price (i.e. ryn's myself chart) are pretty unlikely in my opinion, unless catastrophic protocol failure or "global crypto ban" happens. It took more than a year for price to deflate 75% (as measured by a 20 day average), and we're already showing signs of selling exhaustion, so I wouldn't bet much on pre-2013 prices.

Prediction in act.

On 208 hit next target 120.

a) 208 not hit (yet?). Keep the salivation reflex in control Smiley

b) Even then, still missing what luc's main point was. Relevant parts again:
1. Further price collapse is possible, but not required, and
2. Very fucking long "silence phase" (after final collapse)

My reply was for the bolded parts of your reply.

Imo you read luc posts with a bit too strong bull classes. Luc could comment, but my interpretation from example H&S pattern that luc has showed also, is that luc thinks that new LL <166 is likely.

We could see capitulation <100 then upper weekly BB then "very fucking long silent phase" at middle weekly BB.

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Bassica
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April 24, 2015, 01:32:13 PM
 #2776

Luc, i'm wondering, since I've seen charts from gold as well, do you also analyze the major indices? DJX SPX?

If so, what are your thoughts on the current conditions?
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April 24, 2015, 02:23:02 PM
 #2777

ITT people see what they want see...

I'm leaning towards 'more downside' as well (expecting to see sub-200 again, for example), but you'll note that luc didn't say "New lower low incoming", but rather "Further price collapse is possible, but not required".

Also, prices an order of magnitude lower than current price (i.e. ryn's myself chart) are pretty unlikely in my opinion, unless catastrophic protocol failure or "global crypto ban" happens. It took more than a year for price to deflate 75% (as measured by a 20 day average), and we're already showing signs of selling exhaustion, so I wouldn't bet much on pre-2013 prices.

Prediction in act.

On 208 hit next target 120.

a) 208 not hit (yet?). Keep the salivation reflex in control Smiley

b) Even then, still missing what luc's main point was. Relevant parts again:
1. Further price collapse is possible, but not required, and
2. Very fucking long "silence phase" (after final collapse)

I'm not worried about the collapse, but the silence phase will be painful / depressing / boring.
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April 24, 2015, 02:55:50 PM
 #2778

I'm not worried about the collapse, but the silence phase will be painful / depressing / boring.

Too true. Alot of this is technical mumbo jumbo to me, but can someone explain why the Mid January capitulation to 150 followed by the last 3 months of silence is not exactly this, and that the bottom hasn't already been reached?
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April 24, 2015, 03:04:13 PM
Last edit: April 24, 2015, 03:15:11 PM by Wandererfromthenorth
 #2779

I'm not worried about the collapse, but the silence phase will be painful / depressing / boring.

Too true. Alot of this is technical mumbo jumbo to me, but can someone explain why the Mid January capitulation to 150 followed by the last 3 months of silence is not exactly this, and that the bottom hasn't already been reached?


It's bid sum still being ridiculously low (and still decreasing, while at the end of the 2013 bear market bid sum went nuts, and price clearly followed for example), it's decreasing volume on all exchanges since January (again, after a real capitulation like in 2013 or 2011, the recovery should be panic buying on progressively increasing volume for the following months), the fact that the actual volume on the $150 bottom wasn't all that amazing (on chinese exchanges they are almost a standard volume bar), the fact that overall volume measured in USD is lower than in the $300-$400 area especially on chinese exchanges, EW analysis, value of daily mined coins, short term (and also long term) support trend lines broken, recent weak price action etc.


I'm not an expert on Elliott Wave Theory (I don't know anything about it actually), but all the EW chartists on this forum are bearish right now. They probably can give you a more specific answer regarding EW.


As a summary I would say:
-Bearish current price structure (and weak price action)
-Decreasing Bid Sum
-Decreasing volume (since the January bottom)
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April 24, 2015, 03:06:46 PM
Last edit: April 24, 2015, 03:24:06 PM by Wandererfromthenorth
 #2780

Volume:

2011: Increasing Volume





2013: Increasing volume
2015: Decreasing volume





Bid Sum:


2013: Increasing Bid Sum




2015: Decreasing Bid Sum:







Unfortunately I can't find info on the increasing/decreasing Bid Sum in 2011 on gox  Undecided
The depth charts I found don't show data before 2012




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