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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 939293 times)
gotmilk_
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April 30, 2015, 08:43:24 AM
 #2801

If we break 240$ today with nice volume...  Smiley
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The Bitcoin software, network, and concept is called "Bitcoin" with a capitalized "B". Bitcoin currency units are called "bitcoins" with a lowercase "b" -- this is often abbreviated BTC.
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tokeweed
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April 30, 2015, 09:04:40 AM
 #2802

Well...  At least we can relax a bit and get all our BTC away from the exchanges, that's for sure.

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Fabrizio89
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April 30, 2015, 09:22:21 AM
 #2803

DXY looks corrective, will see how low it goes. Everything else going up, commodities reacting too. Stockpile btc while it's still lagging Smiley
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April 30, 2015, 04:22:12 PM
 #2804

DXY looks corrective, will see how low it goes. Everything else going up, commodities reacting too. Stockpile btc while it's still lagging Smiley

Yeah, gold reacted well, from 2105 to 1180 Tongue

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realdos
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April 30, 2015, 07:15:31 PM
 #2805

I have to show you a very dangerous channel with bottom now around $30 and falling



This downtrend is going to break




When and how this break could be confirmed as effective break? Re-test the downtrend line after breaking through it?
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April 30, 2015, 07:36:00 PM
 #2806

When and how this break could be confirmed as effective break? Re-test the downtrend line after breaking through it?

I look for a completed weekly bar above the upper trendline (open, high, low, close) to confirm.  That pattern is more or less on a weekly timeframe but you could also use a 3-day I suppose.

Counterfeit:  made in imitation of something else with intent to deceive:  merriam-webster
oblox
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April 30, 2015, 08:41:43 PM
 #2807

Your trendline should really be drawn on a logarithmic scale... that, coupled with the swing high around $300 and 200-dma, a close above $305 on the daily should mark the end of the downtrend if there is follow-through.
masterluc
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April 30, 2015, 10:10:40 PM
 #2808

Your trendline should really be drawn on a logarithmic scale... that, coupled with the swing high around $300 and 200-dma, a close above $305 on the daily should mark the end of the downtrend if there is follow-through.

Log long term downtrend (330-350) is next target on breaking this one. However no. Daily  Sma200 is next (290).

Sma200 and log downtrend form a significant resistance levels. Market will need a lot of momentum and time to break them I suppose.

I turned a bit optimistic because of:

1. Daily BB collapsed suggesting start of significant short term move.
2. Price went to its positive territory.
3. Daily adx also collapsed pointing to start of something point.
4. Weekly Bb collapses suggesting start of significant midterm move. Yet price is still in negative zone.
5. Daily and weekly macd show some sort of bullish hook last days.

So both short and mid term indicators shows some development in final stage, while macd hints it may be bullish. And then price tries to break not a small downtrend line. Another hint? Let's see.

In a bullish scenario there are a lot of resistances in 250-350 area:
* daily sma200
* weekly sma 10,20
* weekly upper bb
* long term log downtrend line

And I recognize them as hard. First and last are most hard. Trend may easily reverse on them.

So here is my small brainstorm on this situation.

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May 01, 2015, 06:38:18 AM
 #2809

Your trendline should really be drawn on a logarithmic scale... that, coupled with the swing high around $300 and 200-dma, a close above $305 on the daily should mark the end of the downtrend if there is follow-through.

Log long term downtrend (330-350) is next target on breaking this one. However no. Daily  Sma200 is next (290).

Sma200 and log downtrend form a significant resistance levels. Market will need a lot of momentum and time to break them I suppose.

I turned a bit optimistic because of:

1. Daily BB collapsed suggesting start of significant short term move.
2. Price went to its positive territory.
3. Daily adx also collapsed pointing to start of something point.
4. Weekly Bb collapses suggesting start of significant midterm move. Yet price is still in negative zone.
5. Daily and weekly macd show some sort of bullish hook last days.

So both short and mid term indicators shows some development in final stage, while macd hints it may be bullish. And then price tries to break not a small downtrend line. Another hint? Let's see.

In a bullish scenario there are a lot of resistances in 250-350 area:
* daily sma200
* weekly sma 10,20
* weekly upper bb
* long term log downtrend line

And I recognize them as hard. First and last are most hard. Trend may easily reverse on them.

So here is my small brainstorm on this situation.

much appreciated as always  Wink

Bro, do you even blockchain?
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May 01, 2015, 07:46:31 AM
 #2810

This scenario could be confirmed (or not) within the next week.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/AHFOHXcM-Updated-Longterm-Downtrend-Cycles/

"Good short oportunity in this range with SL in the 233-237 area and target in the low 100s"

Failed.
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May 01, 2015, 10:17:47 AM
 #2811

Looks broken. Escape from bear jail trendline. green ma200 resistance.



Yet still in longterm downtrend (not actually accurate lines due to sierra bugs)



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May 01, 2015, 10:27:01 AM
 #2812


"Good short oportunity in this range with SL in the 233-237 area and target in the low 100s"

Failed.

another opportunity - long target 290 with s/l 220. risk/reward 1:3

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May 01, 2015, 12:11:32 PM
 #2813

I don't know luc, I don't think we're out of the woods yet. I see resistance due to the 50 day MA... lower still looks more likely to me than $300+


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May 01, 2015, 12:17:13 PM
 #2814

China leads, not Bitstamp. If the pandas decide to crash and burn, it will be so. Decision should be clear within 2 - 3 days.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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May 03, 2015, 04:24:46 PM
Last edit: May 03, 2015, 04:49:29 PM by hhthinh
 #2815

is your btc addy still ok Luc?If yes pls confirm,i want to give you a gift

i sent straight,check your addy !
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May 03, 2015, 04:51:37 PM
 #2816

I reconize current activity as long term counter trend corrective move.

I said earlier, there are a lot of resistances at 250-350 area.

This rally isn't safe enough, I see a potential to 290-320 so far. And it is risky.

i sent straight,check your addy !

Thanks.

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May 03, 2015, 04:54:29 PM
 #2817

I reconize current activity as long term counter trend corrective move.

I said earlier, there are a lot of resistances at 250-350 area.

This rally isn't safe enough, I see a potential to 290-320 so far. And it is risky.

200 has proven to be a strong resistance line. Little risk with potential 50-60 dollars gain per coin if played right.
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May 05, 2015, 05:48:08 AM
 #2818

When and how this break could be confirmed as effective break? Re-test the downtrend line after breaking through it?

I look for a completed weekly bar above the upper trendline (open, high, low, close) to confirm.  That pattern is more or less on a weekly timeframe but you could also use a 3-day I suppose.

Is it confirmed now as the 3-day bar is totally above the upper trendline?
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May 05, 2015, 06:08:03 AM
 #2819

another H&S forming?
realdos
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May 05, 2015, 07:34:20 PM
 #2820

another H&S forming?

How about the last H&S? Failed?
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