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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 939292 times)
realdos
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June 02, 2015, 03:38:29 PM
Last edit: June 02, 2015, 04:13:32 PM by realdos
 #2921

200 (weekly lower bb). then 100 on break down.
If the price does reach to the $100 area, is the prediction that the correction is to be complete and bounce is followed still valid? (namely $100s is the bottom)
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June 02, 2015, 05:25:05 PM
 #2922

200 (weekly lower bb). then 100 on break down.
If the price does reach to the $100 area, is the prediction that the correction is to be complete and bounce is followed still valid? (namely $100s is the bottom)

DanV at TradingView feels that a drop to $100 area would finally complete an EW eight wave cycle. This completion could set the stage for a new bull rally next year.

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June 02, 2015, 05:44:44 PM
 #2923

200 (weekly lower bb). then 100 on break down.
If the price does reach to the $100 area, is the prediction that the correction is to be complete and bounce is followed still valid? (namely $100s is the bottom)
Odds higher with each bottom )

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June 02, 2015, 05:45:34 PM
 #2924

200 (weekly lower bb). then 100 on break down.
If the price does reach to the $100 area, is the prediction that the correction is to be complete and bounce is followed still valid? (namely $100s is the bottom)

DanV at TradingView feels that a drop to $100 area would finally complete an EW eight wave cycle. This completion could set the stage for a new bull rally next year.

I tend to agree. Momentum on the weekly has clearly fallen considerably over the past 6-12 months. But it seems we have another capitulation looming. Losing $230s is super bearish IMO. So many longs were accumulated there.
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June 11, 2015, 07:53:43 PM
 #2925

200 (weekly lower bb). then 100 on break down.
If the price does reach to the $100 area, is the prediction that the correction is to be complete and bounce is followed still valid? (namely $100s is the bottom)
Odds higher with each bottom )

Any new thoughts these days? Undecided
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June 11, 2015, 08:04:32 PM
 #2926

Daily sma20 retest. Nothing more so far. According to weekly adx, trend only initializing.

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June 11, 2015, 09:54:41 PM
 #2927

200 (weekly lower bb). then 100 on break down.
If the price does reach to the $100 area, is the prediction that the correction is to be complete and bounce is followed still valid? (namely $100s is the bottom)

DanV at TradingView feels that a drop to $100 area would finally complete an EW eight wave cycle. This completion could set the stage for a new bull rally next year.

not necessarily a bull rally to astronomical figures eg $ 1000, just a good base for 3X, 4X or 5X reversal.



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June 12, 2015, 10:47:13 PM
 #2928

not necessarily a bull rally to astronomical figures eg $ 1000, just a good base for 3X, 4X or 5X reversal.
5x reversal is > $1000. Smiley

Fairplay medal of dnaleor's trading simulator. Smiley
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June 12, 2015, 11:43:55 PM
 #2929

not necessarily a bull rally to astronomical figures eg $ 1000, just a good base for 3X, 4X or 5X reversal.
5x reversal is > $1000. Smiley

Meant 5X off the $100 base.



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June 13, 2015, 06:29:33 AM
 #2930

Well there's not much to analyse right here, apart from that fractal on 3D which could play out or could just be painted to trick you in buying. I think we're at a point when you can just leave a long and a short together and just leave them be. The move that will come out of this consolidation will be so big that you will end up making much profits anyway.
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June 13, 2015, 12:50:52 PM
 #2931

I think we're at a point when you can just leave a long and a short together and just leave them be.

*scratches head*

Can someone explain that to me? Wont the short make as much losses as the long makes gains, i.e. they cancel out?

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June 13, 2015, 12:59:27 PM
 #2932

I think we're at a point when you can just leave a long and a short together and just leave them be.

*scratches head*

Can someone explain that to me? Wont the short make as much losses as the long makes gains, i.e. they cancel out?


If you have a 10x long and a 10x short on 10BTC each, if the movement is 30% either way you would gain roughly 20BTC (30BTC-10BTC from the losing position). 50% = 40BTC. Minus fees etc. of course.  Please correct me if I'm wrong.

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June 13, 2015, 01:05:55 PM
 #2933

I think we're at a point when you can just leave a long and a short together and just leave them be.

*scratches head*

Can someone explain that to me? Wont the short make as much losses as the long makes gains, i.e. they cancel out?


If you have a 10x long or 10x short on 10BTC each, if the movement is 30% either way you would gain roughly 20BTC (30BTC-10BTC from the losing position). 50% = 40BTC. Minus fees etc. of course.  Please correct me if I'm wrong.
You would gain 30% from the winning positin but loss 30% from the losing one.
molecular
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June 13, 2015, 01:09:27 PM
 #2934

I think we're at a point when you can just leave a long and a short together and just leave them be.

*scratches head*

Can someone explain that to me? Wont the short make as much losses as the long makes gains, i.e. they cancel out?


If you have a 10x long and a 10x short on 10BTC each, if the movement is 30% either way you would gain roughly 20BTC (30BTC-10BTC from the losing position). 50% = 40BTC. Minus fees etc. of course.  Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Let's say at price $100 you go long buying 100 BTC using $10,000

Now price rallies to $130 (+30%), so your position (+100 BTC) is worth 13,000. If you close it, you made a gain of $3,000. In BTC-equivalent that'd be 23 BTC.

Let's say at price $100 you go short selling 100 BTC for $10,000

Now price rallies to $130 (+30%), so to close your position and buy back the 100 BTC you'd have to put up an additonal $3,000 (you already have $10,000 from the sell). So that's a loss of $3,000. In BTC-equivalent that'd be 23 BTC.

So nothing is accomplished when opening and closing 2 equal-sized positions at the same times. Closing the long first and then waiting for price to drop is the same as not opening the pair at all and just opening a short at $130, no?

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June 13, 2015, 01:12:04 PM
 #2935

I think we're at a point when you can just leave a long and a short together and just leave them be.

*scratches head*

Can someone explain that to me? Wont the short make as much losses as the long makes gains, i.e. they cancel out?


If you have a 10x long or 10x short on 10BTC each, if the movement is 30% either way you would gain roughly 20BTC (30BTC-10BTC from the losing position). 50% = 40BTC. Minus fees etc. of course.  Please correct me if I'm wrong.
You would gain 30% from the winning positin but loss 30% from the losing one.


?

I would think your losing position would be force closed between the 7%-10% mark. Wouldn't it? With 10x I mean 10x leverage.

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molecular
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June 13, 2015, 01:20:42 PM
 #2936

I think we're at a point when you can just leave a long and a short together and just leave them be.

*scratches head*

Can someone explain that to me? Wont the short make as much losses as the long makes gains, i.e. they cancel out?


If you have a 10x long or 10x short on 10BTC each, if the movement is 30% either way you would gain roughly 20BTC (30BTC-10BTC from the losing position). 50% = 40BTC. Minus fees etc. of course.  Please correct me if I'm wrong.
You would gain 30% from the winning positin but loss 30% from the losing one.


?

I would think your losing position would be force closed between the 7%-10% mark. Wouldn't it? With 10x I mean 10x leverage.

That's using forced liquidation as a stop order, right?

In that case I could just put 2 stop orders: a short 10% below market and a long 10% above.

If that's the essence of what fabrizio suggest (which I doubt), I agree: that could work in current conditions. Both a drop below $207 and a rise above $253 would probably result in a larger move.

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June 13, 2015, 01:24:10 PM
 #2937

I think we're at a point when you can just leave a long and a short together and just leave them be.

*scratches head*

Can someone explain that to me? Wont the short make as much losses as the long makes gains, i.e. they cancel out?


If you have a 10x long or 10x short on 10BTC each, if the movement is 30% either way you would gain roughly 20BTC (30BTC-10BTC from the losing position). 50% = 40BTC. Minus fees etc. of course.  Please correct me if I'm wrong.
You would gain 30% from the winning positin but loss 30% from the losing one.


?

I would think your losing position would be force closed between the 7%-10% mark. Wouldn't it? With 10x I mean 10x leverage.
Oh if you take stop into account, then yes.
 
But if the path of the price is something else than a straight 30% up or a straight 30% down, the payoff can be very negative (price go 10% up then 30% down, as an example).
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June 13, 2015, 01:26:09 PM
Last edit: June 13, 2015, 01:48:05 PM by Fatman3001
 #2938



That's using forced liquidation as a stop order, right?

In that case I could just put 2 stop orders: a short 10% below market and a long 10% above.

If that's the essence of what fabrizio suggest (which I doubt), I agree: that could work in current conditions. Both a drop below $207 and a rise above $253 would probably result in a larger move.


I read it that way. So basically the bet is on the momentum rather than the direction. But maybe I should just butt out and let fabrizio explain it.


Oh if you take stop into account, then yes.
 
But if the path of the price is something else than a straight 30% up or a straight 30% down, the payoff can be very negative (price go 10% up then 30% down, as an example).

Yes, when the move is in you'd better watch that mofo like a hawk. But until the alarm rings you can lower your shoulders. Just don't get totally plastered.

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June 13, 2015, 01:35:02 PM
 #2939

@molecular

You're right of course, if taken at face value, any gain will be offset by an equal loss, and vice versa.

What was presumably implicit in Fabrizio's comment is some notion of 'stop loss' (or equivalently, being margin called). As in: you don't let the losing position ride out as long as the winning position.

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molecular
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June 13, 2015, 01:50:05 PM
 #2940

@molecular

You're right of course, if taken at face value, any gain will be offset by an equal loss, and vice versa.

What was presumably implicit in Fabrizio's comment is some notion of 'stop loss' (or equivalently, being margin called). As in: you don't let the losing position ride out as long as the winning position.

I see. So that's basically a bet on the size of the next move (either way).

It's all about where to set the stops of course. I would fathom anything less than 10% away from market is too risky.

Also: I'm not convinced there will be a big move soonishtm. We could well trade around in a tight range for a long while.

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