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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 939292 times)
masterluc
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June 16, 2015, 09:39:30 PM
 #2961

So here is another field full of resistances - fighting for breakout.

If the breakout of log downtrend is confirmed, could it become one possible scenario that the price reach the upper weekly BB and back to weekly sma20 for a long silence period?

Weekly bands are tiny and flat enough for price to expand them (in either way). They are neither falling or rising - they are flat.

Falling upper band usually very strong resistance (or rising bottom band is support) for price and it bounces back to sma20. It was those days, but today's picture is different.

It doesn't mean band is not resistance at all. It is more ready to expand than earlier.

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June 16, 2015, 09:47:38 PM
 #2962

So here is another field full of resistances - fighting for breakout.

If the breakout of log downtrend is confirmed, could it become one possible scenario that the price reach the upper weekly BB and back to weekly sma20 for a long silence period?

Weekly bands are tiny and flat enough for price to expand them (in either way). They are neither falling or rising - they are flat.

Falling upper band usually very strong resistance (or rising bottom band is support) for price and it bounces back to sma20. It was those days, but today's picture is different.

It doesn't mean band is not resistance at all. It is more ready to expand than earlier.

The undertones here sound bullish.
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June 16, 2015, 09:52:23 PM
 #2963

So here is another field full of resistances - fighting for breakout.

If the breakout of log downtrend is confirmed, could it become one possible scenario that the price reach the upper weekly BB and back to weekly sma20 for a long silence period?

Weekly bands are tiny and flat enough for price to expand them (in either way). They are neither falling or rising - they are flat.

Falling upper band usually very strong resistance (or rising bottom band is support) for price and it bounces back to sma20. It was those days, but today's picture is different.

It doesn't mean band is not resistance at all. It is more ready to expand than earlier.

The undertones here sound bullish.
Indeed, the rumblings are indicating something quite special is in the mix. I don't know about you guys but I sure am set up quite nicely atm. Good times ahead for a change.
txbtc
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June 16, 2015, 09:58:43 PM
 #2964

I've  been watching BTC during that time we have had longer periods of stability and so Value has increased 8% in 2 weeks, that's definitely something to be pleased about.
masterluc
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June 16, 2015, 10:01:43 PM
 #2965

The undertones here sound bullish.

Undertones are confusing. From one side I see great harm for further bearish development with this impulse. From other I don't believe it will just blow up daily 200 sma (and log downtrend somewhere there) from 1st strike, while sma is near.

Okurkabinladin
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June 16, 2015, 10:08:22 PM
 #2966

Then I guess the best bet right now is still sitting and waiting. With fiat ready once market makes move.
masterluc
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June 17, 2015, 12:20:39 PM
 #2967

ma200 is here, correction overdue. And if it is, there are new hidden divergences.



bank of bits
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June 17, 2015, 01:35:05 PM
 #2968

I'm expecting some nice long-term gains - wouldn't be surprised at all to see $300 before the end of the month.
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June 19, 2015, 04:39:06 AM
 #2969

If we make it to the Upper Weekly BB - and if we close above the middle band this week it looks like that is where we are headed - then things will get interesting. Historically, bitcoin price has ridden the Upper Weekly BB during growth periods.

klee
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June 19, 2015, 08:12:18 AM
 #2970

If we make it to the Upper Weekly BB - and if we close above the middle band this week it looks like that is where we are headed - then things will get interesting. Historically, bitcoin price has ridden the Upper Weekly BB during growth periods.


Can you post a chart?
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June 19, 2015, 09:12:23 AM
 #2971

I'm expecting some nice long-term gains - wouldn't be surprised at all to see $300 before the end of the month.

I actually would be very surprised if that happens. A lot of bookies give btc almost 0% chance to pass 350$ before July 1st, and i would think that chances of 300% are just a little bit higher, but still in a very low single digits
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June 25, 2015, 06:52:45 AM
 #2972

This thread just got awfully abandoned in the past week. Do we have any updates on recent price developments?
masterluc
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June 25, 2015, 07:28:16 PM
 #2973

SMA200 not broken, long term log trend not broken.

Just got emergency alert from my FX broker. 29 June greece will likely to default, extreme EURUSD and other pairs volatility and lack of liquidity expected.

I seat and think what it may mean to bitcoin. It is on verge of trendline. Will it break it up or will it collapse?

SmoothCurves
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June 25, 2015, 08:26:24 PM
 #2974

SMA200 not broken, long term log trend not broken.

Just got emergency alert from my FX broker. 29 June greece will likely to default, extreme EURUSD and other pairs volatility and lack of liquidity expected.

I seat and think what it may mean to bitcoin. It is on verge of trendline. Will it break it up or will it collapse?

Maybe we get something like this: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/TbsOOXfx-BTCUSD-IN-POTENTIAL-INTERIM-TREND-CHANGE-RETRACEMENT-BOUNCE/
BitcoinNewsMagazine
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June 25, 2015, 08:43:00 PM
 #2975

SMA200 not broken, long term log trend not broken.

Just got emergency alert from my FX broker. 29 June greece will likely to default, extreme EURUSD and other pairs volatility and lack of liquidity expected.

I seat and think what it may mean to bitcoin. It is on verge of trendline. Will it break it up or will it collapse?

Maybe we get something like this: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/TbsOOXfx-BTCUSD-IN-POTENTIAL-INTERIM-TREND-CHANGE-RETRACEMENT-BOUNCE/

This is what often irritates me about EW. There is always an alternate count. What would it take for everyone to agree that the 13 January low of $152 on Bitstamp completed the ABC correction and we are set now for a fresh cycle to begin: five waves up making new highs perhaps in 2016?

Regarding the situation in Greece: when the banking crisis in Cyprus happened March 2013 bitcoin price surged from $40 to $260 before settling back at $120. What are the odds history will repeat itself? 

RyNinDaCleM
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June 25, 2015, 08:56:43 PM
 #2976

SMA200 not broken, long term log trend not broken.

Just got emergency alert from my FX broker. 29 June greece will likely to default, extreme EURUSD and other pairs volatility and lack of liquidity expected.

I seat and think what it may mean to bitcoin. It is on verge of trendline. Will it break it up or will it collapse?

Maybe we get something like this: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/TbsOOXfx-BTCUSD-IN-POTENTIAL-INTERIM-TREND-CHANGE-RETRACEMENT-BOUNCE/

This is what often irritates me about EW. There is always an alternate count. What would it take for everyone to agree that the 13 January low of $152 on Bitstamp completed the ABC correction and we are set now for a fresh cycle to begin: five waves up making new highs perhaps in 2016?

Regarding the situation in Greece: when the banking crisis in Cyprus happened March 2013 bitcoin price surged from $40 to $260 before settling back at $120. What are the odds history will repeat itself? 

The move up from $152 is not impulsive, so it would not be agreed upon by ew'ers at all that the bottom is in. In fact, the only one that I know of who believes the bottom is in is that one guy who really doesn't know how to count (or pretends like he can't). I think his name is user1trillion or some shit

The Greece 2013 thing was a coincidence. I have yet to see proof that the bubble was in any significant way driven by Greek Euros.

BitcoinNewsMagazine
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June 25, 2015, 09:34:17 PM
 #2977

SMA200 not broken, long term log trend not broken.

Just got emergency alert from my FX broker. 29 June greece will likely to default, extreme EURUSD and other pairs volatility and lack of liquidity expected.

I seat and think what it may mean to bitcoin. It is on verge of trendline. Will it break it up or will it collapse?

Maybe we get something like this: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/TbsOOXfx-BTCUSD-IN-POTENTIAL-INTERIM-TREND-CHANGE-RETRACEMENT-BOUNCE/

This is what often irritates me about EW. There is always an alternate count. What would it take for everyone to agree that the 13 January low of $152 on Bitstamp completed the ABC correction and we are set now for a fresh cycle to begin: five waves up making new highs perhaps in 2016?

Regarding the situation in Greece: when the banking crisis in Cyprus happened March 2013 bitcoin price surged from $40 to $260 before settling back at $120. What are the odds history will repeat itself? 

The move up from $152 is not impulsive, so it would not be agreed upon by ew'ers at all that the bottom is in. In fact, the only one that I know of who believes the bottom is in is that one guy who really doesn't know how to count (or pretends like he can't). I think his name is user1trillion or some shit

The Greece 2013 thing was a coincidence. I have yet to see proof that the bubble was in any significant way driven by Greek Euros.

Thanks! Got it now, thanks for the explanation, much appreciated.

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June 25, 2015, 09:39:01 PM
 #2978

...
The move up from $152 is not impulsive, so it would not be agreed upon by ew'ers at all that the bottom is in. In fact, the only one that I know of who believes the bottom is in is that one guy who really doesn't know how to count (or pretends like he can't). I think his name is user1trillion or some shit
...

I'll try to explain why I find it not impulsive: the first pump of January to 315$ looked somewhat impulsive initially, but it didn't hold, it deflated very quickly.
In an incipient bull market, it should have lasted close to it's top for around 10 days. The second pump of March failed to reach higher levels and while it lasted
longer close to it's top, it deflated too deep to allow a third pump, that would break 315$ resistance and make a decent case for an incipient bull market.

If the fundamentals would change, some new demand for bitcoin would appear, then breaking 315$ would be possible, and after a correction, we would see a new ascending trend.
But recently the market failed to reach my target of ~270$ while being seriously overbought, so now I'm only expecting sideways (which may include a 15$ pump) then down a lot.
I am not sure how much the last capitulation will take, I hope not much longer than 6 months.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
saturn643
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June 25, 2015, 10:07:04 PM
 #2979

Plenty of traders are still salivating at the possibility of sub $200 prices that I'm not sure will materialize without some sort of event that causes a real panic.
inca
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June 25, 2015, 10:27:38 PM
 #2980

...
The move up from $152 is not impulsive, so it would not be agreed upon by ew'ers at all that the bottom is in. In fact, the only one that I know of who believes the bottom is in is that one guy who really doesn't know how to count (or pretends like he can't). I think his name is user1trillion or some shit
...

I'll try to explain why I find it not impulsive: the first pump of January to 315$ looked somewhat impulsive initially, but it didn't hold, it deflated very quickly.
In an incipient bull market, it should have lasted close to it's top for around 10 days. The second pump of March failed to reach higher levels and while it lasted
longer close to it's top, it deflated too deep to allow a third pump, that would break 315$ resistance and make a decent case for an incipient bull market.

If the fundamentals would change, some new demand for bitcoin would appear, then breaking 315$ would be possible, and after a correction, we would see a new ascending trend.
But recently the market failed to reach my target of ~270$ while being seriously overbought, so now I'm only expecting sideways (which may include a 15$ pump) then down a lot.
I am not sure how much the last capitulation will take, I hope not much longer than 6 months.

The problem with that Tzupy is a single 20 dollar pump tomorrow negates everything you said. Sure the price could drop down into oblivion, but it is far closer technically to breaking out.

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