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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 935743 times)
tarmi
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June 30, 2015, 01:27:08 PM
 #3061


However, the breakout now has more potential of sustaining because we are nearing the next halving. Make no mistake about it. People will front run this event well in advance. Just look at what LTC is doing right now. Its because LTC halves in 60 days. Its not actually a "unreal altcoin run". Its pretty damn predictable.



I think this ltc bubble is the result of bitfinex credit expansion, not ltc halving. the trigger was the pending halving, yes.

I find it unreal simply because I have my doubts about money flowing at this pace into ltc, and not btc.

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Pruden
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June 30, 2015, 01:34:28 PM
 #3062

3 (Weekly sma20)
2 (Daily sma200)
1 (Log trendline)

... and lift off, Bitcoin the worlds first digital currency starts to its historical wave three to be in next comming years!

I am not really understand what does master mean due to my poor english reading.

3 (Weekly sma20)   breakout or not yet?
2 (Daily sma200)    breakout or not yet?
1 (Log trendline)     breakout or not yet?

Notice all of them have been broken already.
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June 30, 2015, 04:26:47 PM
 #3063

Wouldn't we be closer to this point?





No, its more about a quiet uncertain time after one or more waves that have tried and failed to pierce the downtrend. I think we are on the edge of going back up again in similar proportions to that time period in question.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
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June 30, 2015, 04:33:27 PM
 #3064

mostly it's fake volume from okcoin that appears to be leading the rally. it might just end up as the next mtgox we'll see...




However, the breakout now has more potential of sustaining because we are nearing the next halving. Make no mistake about it. People will front run this event well in advance. Just look at what LTC is doing right now. Its because LTC halves in 60 days. Its not actually a "unreal altcoin run". Its pretty damn predictable.



I think this ltc bubble is the result of bitfinex credit expansion, not ltc halving. the trigger was the pending halving, yes.

I find it unreal simply because I have my doubts about money flowing at this pace into ltc, and not btc.


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June 30, 2015, 06:06:20 PM
 #3065

3 (Weekly sma20)
2 (Daily sma200)
1 (Log trendline)

... and lift off, Bitcoin the worlds first digital currency starts to its historical wave three to be in next comming years!

masterluc, what do you think of DanV's alternate count that still calls for a lower low to complete the eight wave cycle properly?

Quote
No matter how high the price might reach, it is important to note that this will be only retracement bounce retracing the decline from Nov 2013 to recent 151 low not a new Bullish Cycle. Meaning that on completion we will drop to retest 151 zone or make new lower low.

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June 30, 2015, 07:19:51 PM
 #3066


masterluc, what do you think of DanV's alternate count that still calls for a lower low to complete the eight wave cycle properly?
Well I don't except, but think it has smaller odds because all my time projections had been passed.

His count will require 2-4 years of revisiting lows and trying to break out. That is too much time for wave two I think.

Additionally I have one more "iron" indicator now - weekly sma200, which is appeared not too much time ago. And I don't think it will surrender. If it will then we will see bear epoch.

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June 30, 2015, 10:08:15 PM
 #3067

Also the difficulty rises have slowed down since June 2014 when we were getting double digit percentage increases in difficulty twice a month : https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

The hash rate has been relatively stable now for the last four months which makes miners happy. This combined with the halving in the late spring/early summer of 2016 has the effect of tightening up coin supply.

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June 30, 2015, 10:13:14 PM
 #3068


masterluc, what do you think of DanV's alternate count that still calls for a lower low to complete the eight wave cycle properly?
Well I don't except, but think it has smaller odds because all my time projections had been passed.

His count will require 2-4 years of revisiting lows and trying to break out. That is too much time for wave two I think.

Additionally I have one more "iron" indicator now - weekly sma200, which is appeared not too much time ago. And I don't think it will surrender. If it will then we will see bear epoch.

DanV has been predicting 120 since September 2014 and it's gone nowhere near it. Those waiting for 120 in October 2014 got burned because they took his adbice. The closest it got was 150 on Bitstamp in January. Masterluc has made much more accurate counts than DanV and deserves recognition for it.
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June 30, 2015, 10:22:55 PM
 #3069

Wouldn't we be closer to this point?


<snip>


No, its more about a quiet uncertain time after one or more waves that have tried and failed to pierce the downtrend. I think we are on the edge of going back up again in similar proportions to that time period in question.

Makes sense, I see your point. And I hope we do.  Smiley
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July 01, 2015, 12:55:46 AM
 #3070

3 (Weekly sma20)
2 (Daily sma200)
1 (Log trendline)

... and lift off, Bitcoin the worlds first digital currency starts to its historical wave three to be in next comming years!

Master, for historical wave three it should also consist of five sub-waves. What price level do you think the first sub-wave should reach and when could we expect it?
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July 01, 2015, 01:00:29 AM
 #3071

I am following four bitcoin analysts who use Elliott Wave and as I read their posts here are their current positions:

masterluc - starting impulse wave 3 now
chessnut - Eight wave cycle complete
DanV - we are currently in corrective wave C experiencing a bounce but lower lows predicted
RyNinDaCleM - we are currently in corrective wave B and expects new lows

Did I misinterpret anyone's current count? Also if I missed an EW analyst you think is important link please. Thanks!

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July 01, 2015, 01:50:17 AM
 #3072

I am following four bitcoin analysts who use Elliott Wave and as I read their posts here are their current positions:

masterluc - starting impulse wave 3 now
chessnut - Eight wave cycle complete
DanV - we are currently in corrective wave C experiencing a bounce but lower lows predicted
RyNinDaCleM - we are currently in corrective wave B and expects new lows

Did I misinterpret anyone's current count? Also if I missed an EW analyst you think is important link please. Thanks!

That list is true.

I'd chime in and say that masterluc and Ry have been the most accurate. Although right now they very much disagree. (tiebreaker for champion EWer of the world?).

Chessnut has gotten much better after giving up his bullish bias several months ago.

DanV has made 1 or 2 signature calls, but overall is inaccurate as hell. Smiley Sorry Dan.
RyNinDaCleM
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July 01, 2015, 04:42:56 AM
 #3073

I am following four bitcoin analysts who use Elliott Wave and as I read their posts here are their current positions:

masterluc - starting impulse wave 3 now
chessnut - Eight wave cycle complete
DanV - we are currently in corrective wave C experiencing a bounce but lower lows predicted
RyNinDaCleM - we are currently in corrective wave B and expects new lows

Did I misinterpret anyone's current count? Also if I missed an EW analyst you think is important link please. Thanks!

No misinterpretation and thanks for the props, but my counts are as follows.

#1 The Leading diagonal scenario that I have boarder line spammed this and chessnut's threads with. It is a complete count from an EW standpoint. I did make mention about the log trend line break and how it can (depending on the market reaction) change my mind about this count and lean more toward #2.


#2 The large wave-B count. This count is still on track and is only invalidated with a fall below 219.71


#3 Which I believe is the same count chessnut has as his preferred count currently. However, imo, this can only be used as a 4th wave since it's not long enough to be a 2nd. This is the only count I have that leads to new ATH's before seeing LL's.


Fatman3001
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July 01, 2015, 07:06:19 AM
Last edit: July 01, 2015, 07:19:31 AM by Fatman3001
 #3074

I am following four bitcoin analysts who use Elliott Wave and as I read their posts here are their current positions:

masterluc - starting impulse wave 3 now
chessnut - Eight wave cycle complete
DanV - we are currently in corrective wave C experiencing a bounce but lower lows predicted
RyNinDaCleM - we are currently in corrective wave B and expects new lows

Did I misinterpret anyone's current count? Also if I missed an EW analyst you think is important link please. Thanks!

That list is true.

I'd chime in and say that masterluc and Ry have been the most accurate. Although right now they very much disagree. (tiebreaker for champion EWer of the world?).

Chessnut has gotten much better after giving up his bullish bias several months ago.

DanV has made 1 or 2 signature calls, but overall is inaccurate as hell. Smiley Sorry Dan.

Total noob question: Is this amount and scope of hit&miss/disagreement normal with TA, or is it due to bitcoins diverse nature or perhaps its maturity?

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SmoothCurves
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July 01, 2015, 07:15:00 AM
 #3075

I am following four bitcoin analysts who use Elliott Wave and as I read their posts here are their current positions:

masterluc - starting impulse wave 3 now
chessnut - Eight wave cycle complete
DanV - we are currently in corrective wave C experiencing a bounce but lower lows predicted
RyNinDaCleM - we are currently in corrective wave B and expects new lows

Did I misinterpret anyone's current count? Also if I missed an EW analyst you think is important link please. Thanks!

No misinterpretation and thanks for the props, but my counts are as follows.

#1 The Leading diagonal scenario that I have boarder line spammed this and chessnut's threads with. It is a complete count from an EW standpoint. I did make mention about the log trend line break and how it can (depending on the market reaction) change my mind about this count and lean more toward #2.


#2 The large wave-B count. This count is still on track and is only invalidated with a fall below 219.71


#3 Which I believe is the same count chessnut has as his preferred count currently. However, imo, this can only be used as a 4th wave since it's not long enough to be a 2nd. This is the only count I have that leads to new ATH's before seeing LL's.



A price of $260/BTC in 2017 sounds unrealistic given the block reward halving in mid 2016, the VC money that keeps pouring into the ecosystem and a probably stock market correction, a new ATH seems more likely to me than a revisit to the $200's
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July 01, 2015, 07:27:23 AM
 #3076

I am following four bitcoin analysts who use Elliott Wave and as I read their posts here are their current positions:



No misinterpretation and thanks for the props, but my counts are as follows.

#1 The Leading diagonal scenario that I have boarder line spammed this and chessnut's threads with. It is a complete count from an EW standpoint. I did make mention about the log trend line break and how it can (depending on the market reaction) change my mind about this count and lean more toward #2.


#2 The large wave-B count. This count is still on track and is only invalidated with a fall below 219.71

#3 Which I believe is the same count chessnut has as his preferred count currently. However, imo, this can only be used as a 4th wave since it's not long enough to be a 2nd. This is the only count I have that leads to new ATH's before seeing LL's.



Hi Ryan,

Is #2 similar to the chart you posted yesterday? That had a longer deeper II? after the B correction?



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July 01, 2015, 10:48:08 AM
 #3077

...
#2 The large wave-B count. This count is still on track and is only invalidated with a fall below 219.71
...


Hi Ryan,

Is #2 similar to the chart you posted yesterday? That had a longer deeper II? after the B correction?

Yes, it's pretty much the same. The lines drawn are just a path and no fibo was applied so the actual levels can change a lot depending on where the B were to get

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July 01, 2015, 10:58:41 AM
 #3078


#2 The large wave-B count. This count is still on track and is only invalidated with a fall below 219.71
https://i.imgur.com/FEZW3cG.png

#3 Which I believe is the same count chessnut has as his preferred count currently. However, imo, this can only be used as a 4th wave since it's not long enough to be a 2nd. This is the only count I have that leads to new ATH's before seeing LL's.
https://i.imgur.com/ggU8k7m.png


A price of $260/BTC in 2017 sounds unrealistic given the block reward halving in mid 2016, the VC money that keeps pouring into the ecosystem and a probably stock market correction, a new ATH seems more likely to me than a revisit to the $200's

I'm guessing you are referring to #2 and/or #3?
In #3, there would be a new ATH, but it would be the III top and the following IV would be as long or longer than this bear market and would enter the price territory of this correction. Usually close (but not a must) to the low of the previous 4 which was the $152 low from January.

In #2, there are a lot of variables that can change the bottoming date. Don't just assume that what I have drawn is indicative of where it will actually be. The note in that chart is just a guide line and may or may not be fully adhered to in actuality.

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July 01, 2015, 11:34:59 AM
 #3079

[snip]

Total noob question: Is this amount and scope of hit&miss/disagreement normal with TA, or is it due to bitcoins diverse nature or perhaps its maturity?

I'll chime in on this one, if you don't mind...

There seems to be more disagreement than usual between competent traders / analysts at the moment, but I think it's mainly because the market itself is at a 'decision point', so - anthropomorphizing the market a bit - it is in the "process of making up its mind", and therefore, more difficult to predict as well.

If you look back instead to, say, November last year, there was pretty wide agreement where we were heading.


That said, some disagreement always remains. However, I'd like to point out, it is only "hit & miss" if you look at it from the perspective of creating a complete descriptive model, e.g. what a model in an empirical field aims for, say, meteorology or weather forecasting.

However, market predictions applied to trading are crucially different, in the following ways:

- In weather forecasting, you are expected to make a prediction *every day*, and be right every day. In trading on the other hand, you don't *have* to trade when you're not sure - otherwise, you will sit in a "neutral" position, i.e. the least volatile one. The general goal is to enter a position at a point at which your (subjective) probabilities suggest a certain direction of the market, and then exit it at a profit, either at a fixed profit target, or when your subj. probabilities say the direction changes.

- As a corollary of the above: the better you are at both predicting the market direction *and* judging the accuracy of your predictions, the more profitable your trading will likely by. So, in terms of subjective probabilities, you are looking for a Calibrated probability assessment.

- Last, and maybe most importantly: profits and losses can be kept asymmetric with sufficient trading discipline. Enter: target based trading, and stop losses. It's an old trading mantra: you can be wrong 9 out of 10 times, as long as you manage to strictly limit the losses in the cases where you're wrong, and you profit sufficiently the one time you are right.


That was a bit long maybe. So here's the tl;dr: Most non-traders don't realize that trading is only one half "direction prediction". The other half is risk management. And some traders would even argue, in terms of importance, risk management comes before predictions accuracy.

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July 01, 2015, 12:02:05 PM
 #3080

[snip]

Total noob question: Is this amount and scope of hit&miss/disagreement normal with TA, or is it due to bitcoins diverse nature or perhaps its maturity?

I'll chime in on this one, if you don't mind...

There seems to be more disagreement than usual between competent traders / analysts at the moment, but I think it's mainly because the market itself is at a 'decision point', so - anthropomorphizing the market a bit - it is in the "process of making up its mind", and therefore, more difficult to predict as well.

If you look back instead to, say, November last year, there was pretty wide agreement where we were heading.


That said, some disagreement always remains. However, I'd like to point out, it is only "hit & miss" if you look at it from the perspective of creating a complete descriptive model, e.g. what a model in an empirical field aims for, say, meteorology or weather forecasting.

However, market predictions applied to trading are crucially different, in the following ways:

- In weather forecasting, you are expected to make a prediction *every day*, and be right every day. In trading on the other hand, you don't *have* to trade when you're not sure - otherwise, you will sit in a "neutral" position, i.e. the least volatile one. The general goal is to enter a position at a point at which your (subjective) probabilities suggest a certain direction of the market, and then exit it at a profit, either at a fixed profit target, or when your subj. probabilities say the direction changes.

- As a corollary of the above: the better you are at both predicting the market direction *and* judging the accuracy of your predictions, the more profitable your trading will likely by. So, in terms of subjective probabilities, you are looking for a Calibrated probability assessment.

- Last, and maybe most importantly: profits and losses can be kept asymmetric with sufficient trading discipline. Enter: target based trading, and stop losses. It's an old trading mantra: you can be wrong 9 out of 10 times, as long as you manage to strictly limit the losses in the cases where you're wrong, and you profit sufficiently the one time you are right.


That was a bit long maybe. So here's the tl;dr: Most non-traders don't realize that trading is only one half "direction prediction". The other half is risk management. And some traders would even argue, in terms of importance, risk management comes before predictions accuracy.


+1, well said, imho it all boils down to macro environment now.

~ people making their minds whether or not leaving the euro etc...
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