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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 935840 times)
h3speros
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July 01, 2015, 12:38:06 PM
 #3081

risk management allows you to fish good opportunities, it doesn't make you bad trader if you lose in most of your trades IF you have solid risk management, winning trades can be so big that it is profitable in the long run, requires nerves of steel

only crypto market predictions, no bullshit https://twitter.com/h3speros
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Fatman3001
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July 01, 2015, 04:19:22 PM
 #3082

@oda.krell

Thx for a very thorough and insightful answer.

"I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse." - Robert Metcalfe, 1995
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July 02, 2015, 09:46:56 PM
 #3083

I'll chime in on this one, if you don't mind...

oda.krell,

You come off as a seasoned trader and additionally a person who has wonderfully fine intuition about markets. So good that you have come to conclusions that I have only come across after much mathematics!

I would also like to chime in. I do not mean to seem like oda.krell's biggest fan, but their posts are some of the few substantive enough to revert out of lurker-mode!

Markets, like weather and other complex dynamic systems, are computed locally. The stochastic nature does not come from any inherent probabilistic mechanism - there is no man behind the curtain flipping coins - but rather from the emergence of many computations of individual players at any given time.

Most traders here would agree that profits are possible, that the E.M.H. is not strictly correct. That said, there are times when the market seems more predictable than others. 'Decision points', as you call them, are the times when the market is least predictable, when the equilibrium valuation requires calculated input from the maximum number of traders, and the least number of traders are 'cheating' < -- see the brief evolutionary game theory analogy in oda.krell's other thread.

Malus pro bono surrepat, et bonus pro malo displiceat; fallaces enim sunt rerum species, quibus credidimus.
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July 04, 2015, 02:21:49 PM
 #3084

Luc, what do you predict the next ATH to be ?

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July 05, 2015, 02:24:43 PM
 #3085

I have to wonder, if the bulls werent little premature, this growth is taking quite long. I am thankful for any updates from TA educated members.
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July 05, 2015, 02:33:42 PM
 #3086

@OP, people are talking about $1000-$1200 levels, what would you say on this?
Is it profitable to buy in at these rates & wait and watch?

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Joerii
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July 05, 2015, 04:14:41 PM
 #3087

I don't know much about technical analysis but I remember from a book I've read that one charts that look like Bitcoin's, new bubbles will always reach ATH that are at least 3x as high as the previous one. So 3k usd seems like a modest target.

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July 05, 2015, 08:16:20 PM
 #3088

Luc, what do you predict the next ATH to be ?
Big. 1200 may be compared to final ATH in final wave like 31.2 compared to 1200. But it should be in up to 7-10 years.

wpalczynski
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July 05, 2015, 08:22:43 PM
 #3089

What conditions have to be met for the uptrend to be confirmed? (bear market over)

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July 05, 2015, 08:23:35 PM
 #3090

Luc, what do you predict the next ATH to be ?
Big. 1200 may be compared to final ATH in final wave like 31.2 compared to 1200. But it should be in up to 7-10 years.

So around $45,000.  Got it.
gotmilk_
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July 05, 2015, 08:24:09 PM
 #3091

Luc, what do you predict the next ATH to be ?
Big. 1200 may be compared to final ATH in final wave like 31.2 compared to 1200. But it should be in up to 7-10 years.

Now we're talking!  Cool
realdos
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July 05, 2015, 09:11:15 PM
 #3092

Luc, what do you predict the next ATH to be ?
Big. 1200 may be compared to final ATH in final wave like 31.2 compared to 1200. But it should be in up to 7-10 years.
Luc, when do you think the last ATH will be reached again?
co5hike
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July 05, 2015, 09:57:56 PM
 #3093

Luc, should I get married or wait?
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July 06, 2015, 01:52:22 AM
 #3094

Luc, should I get married or wait?

...well done, co5hike, well done.
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July 06, 2015, 01:53:34 AM
 #3095

 
Luc, should I get married or wait?



 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
baseke
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July 06, 2015, 02:00:21 AM
 #3096

Luc, should I get married or wait?

Tell Luc your age and he will answer you according to fibonacci Wink
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July 06, 2015, 02:02:17 AM
 #3097

Luc, should I get married or wait?

no,you are so ugly
RyNinDaCleM
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July 06, 2015, 02:11:14 AM
 #3098

Luc, should I get married or wait?

Only if all your assets are in Bitcoin. Then she can't get them when the marriage goes to shit. Not sure elsewhere, but in the US, 50% end in divorce and 50% of what's left divorce within 10 years. Yep, we're all a bunch of bastards running around, living in gross excess.

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July 06, 2015, 07:16:31 PM
 #3099

Luc, should I get married or wait?

Only if all your assets are in Bitcoin. Then she can't get them when the marriage goes to shit. Not sure elsewhere, but in the US, 50% end in divorce and 50% of what's left divorce within 10 years. Yep, we're all a bunch of bastards running around, living in gross excess.
Divorces come mainly from women.
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July 07, 2015, 08:40:18 PM
 #3100

What are the odds of this?

It doesn't rule out calls for higher prices - could go up to $350, $ 400, but what follows after?




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