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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 939884 times)
maxll
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August 19, 2015, 10:16:57 AM
 #3401

I remember your mistaken bear position about bitcoin masterluc, just before the btcusd pushoff on winter 2013...
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August 19, 2015, 11:20:08 AM
 #3402

This really does look ugly. I don't see how anyone could expect higher prices right now. COnsidering all that is going on in bitcoinland, i'd say we have enough to say that lower prices are more probable than higher prices at this point. If i had to give a figure, say 65%.

I am a regular reader of forums here (bitcointalk) and bitcoinmarkets on reddit and can comfortably say, sentiment has turned since the times of Greece when everyone was yelling moon. Now, i would characterize it as ambivalence with uncertainty on what will happen next. The kind of ambivalence that required a breach of maajor support level to shift to full mode bearish. That level, i suspect is $200. That is the level to watch now as we drag gradually towards it.

Even ranges never last long (200 -300) and at some point a decision will have to be made. It is my opinion that we are drawing nearer to that decision point.



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podyx
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August 19, 2015, 11:28:49 AM
 #3403

This really does look ugly. I don't see how anyone could expect higher prices right now. COnsidering all that is going on in bitcoinland, i'd say we have enough to say that lower prices are more probable than higher prices at this point. If i had to give a figure, say 65%.

I am a regular reader of forums here (bitcointalk) and bitcoinmarkets on reddit and can comfortably say, sentiment has turned since the times of Greece when everyone was yelling moon. Now, i would characterize it as ambivalence with uncertainty on what will happen next. The kind of ambivalence that required a breach of maajor support level to shift to full mode bearish. That level, i suspect is $200. That is the level to watch now as we drag gradually towards it.

Even ranges never last long (200 -300) and at some point a decision will have to be made. It is my opinion that we are drawing nearer to that decision point.

You're missing a key factor surrounding the overall sentiment.

People don't yell "THE SKY IS FALLING" and mean it before they first sold.

"Be greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett
Afrikoin
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August 19, 2015, 11:34:11 AM
 #3404

This really does look ugly. I don't see how anyone could expect higher prices right now. COnsidering all that is going on in bitcoinland, i'd say we have enough to say that lower prices are more probable than higher prices at this point. If i had to give a figure, say 65%.

I am a regular reader of forums here (bitcointalk) and bitcoinmarkets on reddit and can comfortably say, sentiment has turned since the times of Greece when everyone was yelling moon. Now, i would characterize it as ambivalence with uncertainty on what will happen next. The kind of ambivalence that required a breach of maajor support level to shift to full mode bearish. That level, i suspect is $200. That is the level to watch now as we drag gradually towards it.

Even ranges never last long (200 -300) and at some point a decision will have to be made. It is my opinion that we are drawing nearer to that decision point.

You're missing a key factor surrounding the overall sentiment.

People don't yell "THE SKY IS FALLING" and mean it before they first sold.

"Be greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett

That is what i'm saying, fear has yet to kick in. Looking round, there are still enough traders who are hopeful, so panic hasn't set in proper. Meaning, the price isn't right as yet.




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grv
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August 19, 2015, 11:48:57 AM
 #3405

This really does look ugly. I don't see how anyone could expect higher prices right now. COnsidering all that is going on in bitcoinland, i'd say we have enough to say that lower prices are more probable than higher prices at this point. If i had to give a figure, say 65%.

I am a regular reader of forums here (bitcointalk) and bitcoinmarkets on reddit and can comfortably say, sentiment has turned since the times of Greece when everyone was yelling moon. Now, i would characterize it as ambivalence with uncertainty on what will happen next. The kind of ambivalence that required a breach of maajor support level to shift to full mode bearish. That level, i suspect is $200. That is the level to watch now as we drag gradually towards it.

Even ranges never last long (200 -300) and at some point a decision will have to be made. It is my opinion that we are drawing nearer to that decision point.

You're missing a key factor surrounding the overall sentiment.

People don't yell "THE SKY IS FALLING" and mean it before they first sold.

"Be greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett

That is what i'm saying, fear has yet to kick in. Looking round, there are still enough traders who are hopeful, so panic hasn't set in proper. Meaning, the price isn't right as yet.


please Roll Eyes

same shit like in 2013 with silk road "crash"
manipulation before major bullrun

  tips will be spent on ale and ladies of questionable character Grin
bassclef
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August 19, 2015, 02:39:12 PM
 #3406

This really does look ugly. I don't see how anyone could expect higher prices right now. COnsidering all that is going on in bitcoinland, i'd say we have enough to say that lower prices are more probable than higher prices at this point. If i had to give a figure, say 65%.

I am a regular reader of forums here (bitcointalk) and bitcoinmarkets on reddit and can comfortably say, sentiment has turned since the times of Greece when everyone was yelling moon. Now, i would characterize it as ambivalence with uncertainty on what will happen next. The kind of ambivalence that required a breach of maajor support level to shift to full mode bearish. That level, i suspect is $200. That is the level to watch now as we drag gradually towards it.

Even ranges never last long (200 -300) and at some point a decision will have to be made. It is my opinion that we are drawing nearer to that decision point.

You registered at the top of the November 2013 bubble. I think you've seen despair after that unraveling.  

Also, there's no rule that says there has to be x amount of palpable weeping and wailing for capitulation. If the selling climax is of big enough volume, supply and demand take care of the rest.
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August 19, 2015, 02:40:45 PM
 #3407


You're missing a key factor surrounding the overall sentiment.

People don't yell "THE SKY IS FALLING" and mean it before they first sold.

"Be greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett
Warren Buffett also doesnt speculate, and we all know Bitcoin is a speculative investment at this point in time.

biglettuce
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August 19, 2015, 02:49:13 PM
 #3408


You're missing a key factor surrounding the overall sentiment.

People don't yell "THE SKY IS FALLING" and mean it before they first sold.

"Be greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett
Warren Buffett also doesnt speculate, and we all know Bitcoin is a speculative investment at this point in time.

Isn't Warren Buffett the guy who specifically told us to stay away from Bitcoin?  Because "it's a mirage"?
smoothie
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August 19, 2015, 03:00:51 PM
 #3409


You're missing a key factor surrounding the overall sentiment.

People don't yell "THE SKY IS FALLING" and mean it before they first sold.

"Be greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett
Warren Buffett also doesnt speculate, and we all know Bitcoin is a speculative investment at this point in time.

Isn't Warren Buffett the guy who specifically told us to stay away from Bitcoin?  Because "it's a mirage"?

Since when is warren buffet's best interests your best interests?

I don't believe warren gives a damn about warning people about bad or good investments.

Warren buffet is the guy who sold millions of ounces of silver in the $5-$7 range before it went to $50 an ounce.

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Tzupy
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August 19, 2015, 03:01:51 PM
 #3410

This really does look ugly. I don't see how anyone could expect higher prices right now. COnsidering all that is going on in bitcoinland, i'd say we have enough to say that lower prices are more probable than higher prices at this point. If i had to give a figure, say 65%.

I am a regular reader of forums here (bitcointalk) and bitcoinmarkets on reddit and can comfortably say, sentiment has turned since the times of Greece when everyone was yelling moon. Now, i would characterize it as ambivalence with uncertainty on what will happen next. The kind of ambivalence that required a breach of maajor support level to shift to full mode bearish. That level, i suspect is $200. That is the level to watch now as we drag gradually towards it.

Even ranges never last long (200 -300) and at some point a decision will have to be made. It is my opinion that we are drawing nearer to that decision point.

You're missing a key factor surrounding the overall sentiment.

People don't yell "THE SKY IS FALLING" and mean it before they first sold.

"Be greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett

Being greedy when others just start being fearful is going to get you bull trapped, or even rekt if you try to catch a falling knife with a leveraged limit.
That's why I moved my funds from trading to exchange, so I can buy this local bottom (should test again in 3-4 days) without such risk.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
thefiniteidea
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August 19, 2015, 03:52:28 PM
 #3411

Bitcoin has been fairly cycle-ish and range-bound since the beginning of the year.  



IMHO we are at an inflection point.  The above is more likely in my opinion.  However, these two crash fractals look eerily similar:



The fork fears are overblown IMO.  I predict we will see >1mb blocks quietly begin to appear in January.  If the currently month-long+ downtrend breaks over the next week or so, we could head higher.  

+1 really liked this analysis, mate!

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August 19, 2015, 03:53:17 PM
 #3412

Due to this flash crash, what I am certain of is that the price will be bouncing up and down for at least three times. I will wait for the top of the wave so that I can begin the short.
bassclef
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August 19, 2015, 04:09:51 PM
 #3413

This really does look ugly. I don't see how anyone could expect higher prices right now. COnsidering all that is going on in bitcoinland, i'd say we have enough to say that lower prices are more probable than higher prices at this point. If i had to give a figure, say 65%.

I am a regular reader of forums here (bitcointalk) and bitcoinmarkets on reddit and can comfortably say, sentiment has turned since the times of Greece when everyone was yelling moon. Now, i would characterize it as ambivalence with uncertainty on what will happen next. The kind of ambivalence that required a breach of maajor support level to shift to full mode bearish. That level, i suspect is $200. That is the level to watch now as we drag gradually towards it.

Even ranges never last long (200 -300) and at some point a decision will have to be made. It is my opinion that we are drawing nearer to that decision point.

You're missing a key factor surrounding the overall sentiment.

People don't yell "THE SKY IS FALLING" and mean it before they first sold.

"Be greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett

Being greedy when others just start being fearful is going to get you bull trapped, or even rekt if you try to catch a falling knife with a leveraged limit.
That's why I moved my funds from trading to exchange, so I can buy this local bottom (should test again in 3-4 days) without such risk.

After the Silk Road panic there was no secondary test, just a brief higher low. Consider at which  point of the price cycle this is happening.

The volume signature of this crash is low when compared to January. That would indicate there's not much more supply below $200 to be had--a classic shakeout/bear trap to end accumulation.
Afrikoin
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August 19, 2015, 04:16:34 PM
 #3414

This really does look ugly. I don't see how anyone could expect higher prices right now. COnsidering all that is going on in bitcoinland, i'd say we have enough to say that lower prices are more probable than higher prices at this point. If i had to give a figure, say 65%.

I am a regular reader of forums here (bitcointalk) and bitcoinmarkets on reddit and can comfortably say, sentiment has turned since the times of Greece when everyone was yelling moon. Now, i would characterize it as ambivalence with uncertainty on what will happen next. The kind of ambivalence that required a breach of maajor support level to shift to full mode bearish. That level, i suspect is $200. That is the level to watch now as we drag gradually towards it.

Even ranges never last long (200 -300) and at some point a decision will have to be made. It is my opinion that we are drawing nearer to that decision point.

You're missing a key factor surrounding the overall sentiment.

People don't yell "THE SKY IS FALLING" and mean it before they first sold.

"Be greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett

Being greedy when others just start being fearful is going to get you bull trapped, or even rekt if you try to catch a falling knife with a leveraged limit.
That's why I moved my funds from trading to exchange, so I can buy this local bottom (should test again in 3-4 days) without such risk.

After the Silk Road panic there was no secondary test, just a brief higher low. Consider at which  point of the price cycle this is happening.

The volume signature of this crash is low when compared to January. That would indicate there's not much more supply below $200 to be had--a classic shakeout/bear trap to end accumulation.

History doesn't repeat itself. This would not happen again exactly for this reason. Can we stop comparing what happened previously and expect the same/similar to happen? It is a different market with different variables now.

"The volume signature of this crash is low when compared to January. That would indicate there's not much more supply below $200 to be had--a classic shakeout/bear trap to end accumulation."

debatable. crash happened too fast ie flash. A gradual grind to sub- 200 would exhibit different market behaviour IMO



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bassclef
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August 19, 2015, 04:49:28 PM
 #3415

This really does look ugly. I don't see how anyone could expect higher prices right now. COnsidering all that is going on in bitcoinland, i'd say we have enough to say that lower prices are more probable than higher prices at this point. If i had to give a figure, say 65%.

I am a regular reader of forums here (bitcointalk) and bitcoinmarkets on reddit and can comfortably say, sentiment has turned since the times of Greece when everyone was yelling moon. Now, i would characterize it as ambivalence with uncertainty on what will happen next. The kind of ambivalence that required a breach of maajor support level to shift to full mode bearish. That level, i suspect is $200. That is the level to watch now as we drag gradually towards it.

Even ranges never last long (200 -300) and at some point a decision will have to be made. It is my opinion that we are drawing nearer to that decision point.

You're missing a key factor surrounding the overall sentiment.

People don't yell "THE SKY IS FALLING" and mean it before they first sold.

"Be greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett

Being greedy when others just start being fearful is going to get you bull trapped, or even rekt if you try to catch a falling knife with a leveraged limit.
That's why I moved my funds from trading to exchange, so I can buy this local bottom (should test again in 3-4 days) without such risk.

After the Silk Road panic there was no secondary test, just a brief higher low. Consider at which  point of the price cycle this is happening.

The volume signature of this crash is low when compared to January. That would indicate there's not much more supply below $200 to be had--a classic shakeout/bear trap to end accumulation.

History doesn't repeat itself. This would not happen again exactly for this reason. Can we stop comparing what happened previously and expect the same/similar to happen? It is a different market with different variables now.

"The volume signature of this crash is low when compared to January. That would indicate there's not much more supply below $200 to be had--a classic shakeout/bear trap to end accumulation."

debatable. crash happened too fast ie flash. A gradual grind to sub- 200 would exhibit different market behaviour IMO

A lot of people will disagree with you.

If you study historical charts of stocks, bonds and commodities they exhibit randomness, yes, but the structures do repeat and are always from the same playbook--a playbook of how humans react to price action. The fact that this doesn't change is why markets peak and crash similarly over and over again throughout history. The names and players may change, but the principles of speculation do not.

What happened a year or a month ago is absolutely critical in determining the future trend, because those trends set up a supply and demand imbalance. So on every timescale, each wave in the market sets up the next wave--ignoring the past is ridiculous.

A slow grind to $200 or below won't happen unless there are sellers to bring it there. That $3 million short on Finex won't happen again, and he may cover at some point. Scary, climactic action, even if a flash crash (and especially one near the end of a trough accumulation zone) has the effect of removing most of the sellers and remaining weak hands from the market. What kind of move do you think this sets up the market for?
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August 19, 2015, 05:29:53 PM
 #3416

I analyzed situation and made conclusion. I will not close my long and decide buy every bottom since here. As you remember, I advice it since price reached 270-230 for first timever since ATH. Price is in this range so far with some short deviations.

Of course, hard fork is very terrible, but eventually healthy event. Coins stored before fork (no fork yet!) are safe.

Update. Forgot to say, my advices not for leverage trading. I trade naturally 1:1.

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August 19, 2015, 05:33:58 PM
 #3417

This really does look ugly. I don't see how anyone could expect higher prices right now. COnsidering all that is going on in bitcoinland, i'd say we have enough to say that lower prices are more probable than higher prices at this point. If i had to give a figure, say 65%.

I am a regular reader of forums here (bitcointalk) and bitcoinmarkets on reddit and can comfortably say, sentiment has turned since the times of Greece when everyone was yelling moon. Now, i would characterize it as ambivalence with uncertainty on what will happen next. The kind of ambivalence that required a breach of maajor support level to shift to full mode bearish. That level, i suspect is $200. That is the level to watch now as we drag gradually towards it.

Even ranges never last long (200 -300) and at some point a decision will have to be made. It is my opinion that we are drawing nearer to that decision point.

You're missing a key factor surrounding the overall sentiment.

People don't yell "THE SKY IS FALLING" and mean it before they first sold.

"Be greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett

Being greedy when others just start being fearful is going to get you bull trapped, or even rekt if you try to catch a falling knife with a leveraged limit.
That's why I moved my funds from trading to exchange, so I can buy this local bottom (should test again in 3-4 days) without such risk.

After the Silk Road panic there was no secondary test, just a brief higher low. Consider at which  point of the price cycle this is happening.

The volume signature of this crash is low when compared to January. That would indicate there's not much more supply below $200 to be had--a classic shakeout/bear trap to end accumulation.

History doesn't repeat itself. This would not happen again exactly for this reason. Can we stop comparing what happened previously and expect the same/similar to happen? It is a different market with different variables now.

"The volume signature of this crash is low when compared to January. That would indicate there's not much more supply below $200 to be had--a classic shakeout/bear trap to end accumulation."

debatable. crash happened too fast ie flash. A gradual grind to sub- 200 would exhibit different market behaviour IMO

A lot of people will disagree with you.

If you study historical charts of stocks, bonds and commodities they exhibit randomness, yes, but the structures do repeat and are always from the same playbook--a playbook of how humans react to price action. The fact that this doesn't change is why markets peak and crash similarly over and over again throughout history. The names and players may change, but the principles of speculation do not.

What happened a year or a month ago is absolutely critical in determining the future trend, because those trends set up a supply and demand imbalance. So on every timescale, each wave in the market sets up the next wave--ignoring the past is ridiculous.

A slow grind to $200 or below won't happen unless there are sellers to bring it there. That $3 million short on Finex won't happen again, and he may cover at some point. Scary, climactic action, even if a flash crash (and especially one near the end of a trough accumulation zone) has the effect of removing most of the sellers and remaining weak hands from the market. What kind of move do you think this sets up the market for?

Looking at https://bfxdata.com/swaphistory/btc it seems like he has already covered.

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madjules007
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August 19, 2015, 05:41:09 PM
 #3418

I remember your mistaken bear position about bitcoin masterluc, just before the btcusd pushoff on winter 2013...

That's weird. Because I remember him saying that we were at the bottom of a new bubble going into end of October / early November 2013. And then I remember him saying the rally was over shortly before the major downturn in December 2013. So..... one of us is clearly remembering incorrectly. I'm a bit lazy to look, but I believe it's you.

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August 19, 2015, 05:44:47 PM
 #3419

Repeat half year old post ($230). Price is in safe multi year buy zone. From here to zero. Hehe.

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August 19, 2015, 05:45:01 PM
 #3420

My position is long 90% BTC and 10% LTC (hardfork was in my mind) since Bitcoin broke downtrend ($240).

Long to 300$ :-)

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