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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 916522 times)
thefiniteidea
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August 20, 2015, 09:54:44 PM
 #3461



I do believe the larger markets influence Bitcoin's price. Keep an eye out.



Do you believe its an inverse correlation or they generally move in the same direction?

Funny thing is, we haven't seen Bitcoin in a bear market yet. Bitcoin was developed right at the start of our current bull market. So if we're about to enter a bear market, I guess we'll see what happens... IMO, I can't imagine it will be an inverse correlation. Large capital likes to flow together like a large river; wealth managers all have the same ideas usually.

Flow into what though, US Dollar, Gold?  It would be so explosive if even some of that capital considered Bitcoin a safe heaven.

The usual: Cash (US Dollar), Gov Bonds, Corporate Bonds, Buyouts, Real Estate, Commodities, etc... a lot of the wealth has already moved over in the past year, take a look at a DXY chart or the cost of real estate... partly why I think Bitcoin has done so poorly in the past year and a half, and why I think there will be a bit more shifting to come.

I think most of them consider Bitcoin to be a high-risk investment still so... probably not. I think a lot of people will convert their Bitcoin to USD actually... just makes the most sense to me risk-wise in that sort of environment.

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August 20, 2015, 10:01:12 PM
 #3462

Funny thing is, we haven't seen Bitcoin in a bear market yet.

I beg to disagree, unless you're talking about the monthly chart and very long timeframes. One could argue that the 2013 $266-$60 action was reaccumulation, but there is little doubt that heavy distribution occurred in Nov/Dec 2013 which unraveled nearly 100% of that bubble. I would call that a bear market Wink

I don't think many fund managers even own Bitcoin nor is it on many institutional radars yet. If they don't have bitcoins to sell they probably won't all rush in to sell short during a bear market, especially after a year long downtrend and a weekly double bottom. For that reason digital currencies seem to me a bit detached from existing markets. On the other hand, worldwide economic fear is what has "driven" many of the past price increases in Bitcoin so a worldwide slump could bump up demand... and in a market dried up of selling after a year of it, that could launch a big trend.
thefiniteidea
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August 20, 2015, 10:06:44 PM
 #3463

I actually meant Bitcoin existing in a global bear market environment (2000-2003, 2008-2009), as opposed to Bitcoin itself having a bear market.

Sorry about that.

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August 20, 2015, 10:09:34 PM
 #3464

Funny thing is, we haven't seen Bitcoin in a bear market yet.

I beg to disagree, unless you're talking about the monthly chart and very long timeframes. One could argue that the 2013 $266-$60 action was reaccumulation, but there is little doubt that heavy distribution occurred in Nov/Dec 2013 which unraveled nearly 100% of that bubble.

I don't think many fund managers even own Bitcoin nor is it on many institutional radars yet. If they don't have bitcoins to sell they probably won't all rush in to sell short during a bear market, especially after a year long downtrend and a weekly double bottom. For that reason digital currencies seem to me a bit detached from existing markets. On the other hand, worldwide economic fear is what has "driven" many of the past price increases in Bitcoin so a worldwide slump could bump up demand... and in a market dried up from selling after a year of it, that could launch a big trend.

I had the same immediate reaction but I believe what he means to say is we haven't seen Bitcoin during a financial bear market

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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August 20, 2015, 10:12:13 PM
 #3465

Funny thing is, we haven't seen Bitcoin in a bear market yet.

I beg to disagree, unless you're talking about the monthly chart and very long timeframes. One could argue that the 2013 $266-$60 action was reaccumulation, but there is little doubt that heavy distribution occurred in Nov/Dec 2013 which unraveled nearly 100% of that bubble. I would call that a bear market Wink

I don't think many fund managers even own Bitcoin nor is it on many institutional radars yet. If they don't have bitcoins to sell they probably won't all rush in to sell short during a bear market, especially after a year long downtrend and a weekly double bottom. For that reason digital currencies seem to me a bit detached from existing markets. On the other hand, worldwide economic fear is what has "driven" many of the past price increases in Bitcoin so a worldwide slump could bump up demand... and in a market dried up of selling after a year of it, that could launch a big trend.

If USG steps in with some additional massive QE to prop up the failing markets this could lead to USD losing strength which in turn could lead to people looking for alternative safe heavens.

thefiniteidea
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August 20, 2015, 10:16:21 PM
 #3466

Funny thing is, we haven't seen Bitcoin in a bear market yet.

I beg to disagree, unless you're talking about the monthly chart and very long timeframes. One could argue that the 2013 $266-$60 action was reaccumulation, but there is little doubt that heavy distribution occurred in Nov/Dec 2013 which unraveled nearly 100% of that bubble. I would call that a bear market Wink

I don't think many fund managers even own Bitcoin nor is it on many institutional radars yet. If they don't have bitcoins to sell they probably won't all rush in to sell short during a bear market, especially after a year long downtrend and a weekly double bottom. For that reason digital currencies seem to me a bit detached from existing markets. On the other hand, worldwide economic fear is what has "driven" many of the past price increases in Bitcoin so a worldwide slump could bump up demand... and in a market dried up of selling after a year of it, that could launch a big trend.

If USG steps in with some additional massive QE to prop up the failing markets this could lead to USD losing strength which in turn could lead to people looking for alternative safe heavens.

I agree. I am waiting for another bout of QE (or something) as well. But I don't think that will happen for at least a year or two as the market needs to first -- massively fail.

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bassclef
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August 20, 2015, 10:23:29 PM
 #3467

I actually meant Bitcoin existing in a global bear market environment (2000-2003, 2008-2009), as opposed to Bitcoin itself having a bear market.

Sorry about that.

Oops! My mistake!

DOW slid below 17,000 today, a critical support level. Dollar index is on its way down too. Could be an interesting few weeks coming up.
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August 20, 2015, 10:28:25 PM
 #3468

This really does look ugly. I don't see how anyone could expect higher prices right now. COnsidering all that is going on in bitcoinland, i'd say we have enough to say that lower prices are more probable than higher prices at this point. If i had to give a figure, say 65%.

I am a regular reader of forums here (bitcointalk) and bitcoinmarkets on reddit and can comfortably say, sentiment has turned since the times of Greece when everyone was yelling moon. Now, i would characterize it as ambivalence with uncertainty on what will happen next. The kind of ambivalence that required a breach of maajor support level to shift to full mode bearish. That level, i suspect is $200. That is the level to watch now as we drag gradually towards it.

Even ranges never last long (200 -300) and at some point a decision will have to be made. It is my opinion that we are drawing nearer to that decision point.

You're missing a key factor surrounding the overall sentiment.

People don't yell "THE SKY IS FALLING" and mean it before they first sold.

"Be greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett

Being greedy when others just start being fearful is going to get you bull trapped, or even rekt if you try to catch a falling knife with a leveraged limit.
That's why I moved my funds from trading to exchange, so I can buy this local bottom (should test again in 3-4 days) without such risk.

After the Silk Road panic there was no secondary test, just a brief higher low. Consider at which  point of the price cycle this is happening.

The volume signature of this crash is low when compared to January. That would indicate there's not much more supply below $200 to be had--a classic shakeout/bear trap to end accumulation.

History doesn't repeat itself. This would not happen again exactly for this reason. Can we stop comparing what happened previously and expect the same/similar to happen? It is a different market with different variables now.

"The volume signature of this crash is low when compared to January. That would indicate there's not much more supply below $200 to be had--a classic shakeout/bear trap to end accumulation."

debatable. crash happened too fast ie flash. A gradual grind to sub- 200 would exhibit different market behaviour IMO

A lot of people will disagree with you.

If you study historical charts of stocks, bonds and commodities they exhibit randomness, yes, but the structures do repeat and are always from the same playbook--a playbook of how humans react to price action. The fact that this doesn't change is why markets peak and crash similarly over and over again throughout history. The names and players may change, but the principles of speculation do not.


I do not deny that history repeats itself. It does in the sense that panic = panic, fear = fear and greed = greed and so forth. So, by that measure, markets are cycles of greedd, fear, excitement, panic, indecision and whatever else is in between.

However, these are relative degrees in that, 2007 fear is not necessary 2015 fear in absolute terms. Sure, both are instances of fear, but if a number were to be assigned to each, they would be varying degrees of fear. This was my point.

So, looking at charts and saying,  ""After the Silk Road panic there was no secondary test, just a brief higher low"" a secondary test? a higher lower? This is a different time and the market is 'different'. If it took 2 higher lowers to capitulate last time, it might take 3 of 4 this time. That's not to say there is no fear this time, just that it takes more to attain the level of fear required to call a bottom , A BOTTOM.




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August 20, 2015, 10:35:28 PM
 #3469

So, looking at charts and saying,  ""After the Silk Road panic there was no secondary test, just a brief higher low"" a secondary test? a higher lower? This is a different time and the market is 'different'. If it took 2 higher lowers to capitulate last time, it might take 3 of 4 this time. That's not to say there is no fear this time, just that it takes more to attain the level of fear required to call a bottom , A BOTTOM.

There is usually a retest of large climactic lows (and highs) on larger timeframes (6/12/daily charts) no matter what. Sometimes they are lower lows/higher highs but still indicative of how strong/weak the market is.

I think we'll just have to agree to disagree about the amount of fear required for capitulation. There was plenty and in abundance at $166. Plus the downtrend really started accelerating around Christmas--very ugly! The market doesn't know fear, it knows supply and demand, but when there's enough fear (fear of loss or fear of missing out) to cause a large transfer of share ownership (at a buying or selling climax) it is enough to turn the trend of the market. Remember capitulation works in reverse at market tops, too.
RyNinDaCleM
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August 20, 2015, 11:16:21 PM
 #3470


Would you go long here? (It's the weekly chart in reverse that someone posted on reddit.)



That's kind of funny, because it does actually give the appearance of a "buy" situation. Highest volume for the 3rd impulse and declining volume for the corrective 4th wave. It looks like it's missing one final "High" for a substantial top of a large motive. BFX was used for that chart. If it were any other exchange, it would look even better for a "reversed buy".

(For those that don't get the chart, That is a reversed chart. Flipped horizontally (Price * -1). The higher it goes, the lower the actual price is.)

masterluc
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August 20, 2015, 11:40:53 PM
 #3471



S&P 500 dipped under level 1 support today, futures currently at 2025. Last strong support at 1985-2000 (yearly EMA).

If (more like when) trading pushes past that support, things will be ugly.

I do believe the larger markets influence Bitcoin's price (if they haven't already). Keep an eye out.



Actually I put a fuck on stocks as Bitcoin stopped to correlate with them long ago. It does with gold in some meaning.

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August 20, 2015, 11:42:43 PM
 #3472

Apologies luc but I feel this might just be the most important article anyone can read on the block size issue:

http://shitco.in/2015/08/19/the-bitcoin-xt-trojan/

Enjoy your trading!

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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August 21, 2015, 09:10:59 AM
 #3473

Apologies luc but I feel this might just be the most important article anyone can read on the block size issue:

http://shitco.in/2015/08/19/the-bitcoin-xt-trojan/

Enjoy your trading!

I remember an old Chinese tale...

Two disputing men came to wizard with one witness to resolve their dispute. The first man starts to tell his point of view. Wizard listened to him and said:
- You are right
Then second man said
- Wait! You didn't even listen my point!
And told wizard his point of view.  Wizard said:
- You are right
Now was the order of witness to rebel:
- How is that possible both are right?!
Wizard said:
- And you are also right  Grin

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August 21, 2015, 09:38:58 AM
 #3474

Apologies luc but I feel this might just be the most important article anyone can read on the block size issue:

http://shitco.in/2015/08/19/the-bitcoin-xt-trojan/

Enjoy your trading!

I remember an old Chinese tale...

Two disputing men came to wizard with one witness to resolve their dispute. The first man starts to tell his point of view. Wizard listened to him and said:
- You are right
Then second man said
- Wait! You didn't even listen my point!
And told wizard his point of view.  Wizard said:
- You are right
Now was the order of witness to rebel:
- How is that possible both are right?!
Wizard said:
- And you are also right  Grin

+1

You are a true master. Wink

Always wrong until not.
Fatman3001
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Make Bitcoin glow with ENIAC


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August 21, 2015, 11:05:10 AM
 #3475

Apologies luc but I feel this might just be the most important article anyone can read on the block size issue:

http://shitco.in/2015/08/19/the-bitcoin-xt-trojan/

Enjoy your trading!

I remember an old Chinese tale...

Two disputing men came to wizard with one witness to resolve their dispute. The first man starts to tell his point of view. Wizard listened to him and said:
- You are right
Then second man said
- Wait! You didn't even listen my point!
And told wizard his point of view.  Wizard said:
- You are right
Now was the order of witness to rebel:
- How is that possible both are right?!
Wizard said:
- And you are also right  Grin

+1

You are a true master. Wink

+1

Smooth!

"I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse." - Robert Metcalfe, 1995
hdbuck
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August 21, 2015, 03:59:59 PM
 #3476

cup & handle still?


trinaldao
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Post your ann & bounty just contact me


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August 21, 2015, 04:03:00 PM
 #3477

cup & handle still?



so we will se pump after dump Huh

Im still hold my bitcoin and watch more speculation Thread, before i sell or buy bitcoin


INVALID BBCODE: close of unopened tag in table (1)
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August 21, 2015, 06:51:56 PM
 #3478

cup & handle still?


so we will se pump after dump Huh

Im still hold my bitcoin and watch more speculation Thread, before i sell or buy bitcoin


No. The handle dipped too low.
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August 21, 2015, 07:14:02 PM
 #3479

Im still hold my bitcoin and watch more speculation Thread, before i sell or buy bitcoin

If you are still holding a significant position, I would keep a trigger finger on a stop-loss. There is a lot of uncertainty going forward, but who knows, maybe we'll rally back up to $300.. In that case I'd be selling the last of my holdings. And waiting for some real indications of what lies ahead.




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August 21, 2015, 07:24:47 PM
 #3480

Im still hold my bitcoin and watch more speculation Thread, before i sell or buy bitcoin

If you are still holding a significant position, I would keep a trigger finger on a stop-loss. There is a lot of uncertainty going forward, but who knows, maybe we'll rally back up to $300.. In that case I'd be selling the last of my holdings. And waiting for some real indications of what lies ahead.

I guess a lot of people think like you hence i would not even consider a rally back up to 300 to be likely.

But then again, who knows.

(Except masterluc ^^)
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