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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 919569 times)
pontikis13
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October 31, 2015, 06:51:08 PM
 #3981

so what do you think comes next masterluc? How far down?
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klee
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October 31, 2015, 06:57:24 PM
 #3982

Very cool stuff as always!

I agree with 270s and I also see a top (if really bullish) around 330 as you depict in the main near-horizontal trend line.

After that, no clue from me...
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October 31, 2015, 08:27:47 PM
 #3983

Does someone know what means that volume on huobi on bitcoinwisdom? It shows unreal data like trade 1000s btc per minute and millions per week.

Found answer. Volume obviously includes "bitcoin futures".

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October 31, 2015, 08:28:57 PM
 #3984

so what do you think comes next masterluc? How far down?

Following this trend imho. However I need to see next couple of days for reaction for last rally.

I don't see fuel except volume to escape from this trend now with current daily overbought conditions. Even weekly are close to overbought.

If price will escape I'll be much surprised.



masterluc
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October 31, 2015, 08:53:01 PM
 #3985

Gold on daily draws same shit, but with outrunning 1-2 weeks. Same near horizontal escape trend. Bitcoin just reached top trend line, but gold already collapsed to bottom one.

Who is expirenced may provide pics? I'm tired and went sleep.

idee2013
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October 31, 2015, 11:24:02 PM
 #3986

Does someone know what means that volume on huobi on bitcoinwisdom? It shows unreal data like trade 1000s btc per minute and millions per week.

Found answer. Volume obviously includes "bitcoin futures".

nope, that are only washtrades.
futures have other charts see it there

https://cryptowat.ch/okcoin/btcusd-quarterly-futures
https://cryptowat.ch/okcoin/btcusd-weekly-futures
zby
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November 01, 2015, 08:34:31 AM
 #3987

I don't see fuel except volume to escape from this trend now with current daily overbought conditions. Even weekly are close to overbought.

If price will escape I'll be much surprised.



What would break this channel for you? 350?

I have the feeling that this is again China that is leading. There with that crazy wick of previous rally we have not yet reached the trend channel and China can continue with these slow price pushing after corrections. In fact look at the correction right now - China did not go as deep as Bitfinex or Bitstamp and the price premium there only increased.
masterluc
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November 01, 2015, 01:31:55 PM
 #3988

China seems doesn't give a fuck and has a triangle on hourly so far


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November 01, 2015, 01:39:50 PM
 #3989


Need to say that china didn't outperformed previous higher high while others did

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November 01, 2015, 04:13:12 PM
 #3990

Yea but can you really count that flash peak? China's been higher than the rest of the other currency exchanges this go around by $30
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November 01, 2015, 07:52:37 PM
 #3991

Forgot to say, closed another 30% longs @331. Summary close at 321. Was Opened @240.

Master, I have two questions, out of pure curiosity. As far as I remember, you don't use margin. Closing then means that you sold your coins, right?
Also, did you sell all, or around 80% of the total?

Thank you for your analysis and answers.
masterluc
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November 02, 2015, 03:45:26 PM
 #3992

I am confused. From one side this weekly pic is obviously bullish.




From other side horror divergence with gold and eur






oda.krell
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November 02, 2015, 03:58:14 PM
 #3993

If I'm allowed to add my 2 cents:

There are now wide divergences on daily and below on the (MACD derived) indicators I use, plus on most scales it's overbought. I'd normally say that's the end of the run.

Problem is, I haven't found any 'hard' line of resistance yet, and most importantly: the (averaged) bid/ask totals on stamp+finex+btc-e are still looking very impressive, quite different than in July '15. In that sense, I suspect there's some fuel left.

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8up
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November 02, 2015, 04:06:57 PM
 #3994

Great to see you openly talking about your confusion. It took me quite a while, to refresh my picture, too. I came to the conclusion, that we see gravity at work. (If not, it's orchestrated as such very well)

@gold - I remember some talks about the (anti-)correlating behaviour of BTC and gold. It stated there was either good correlation or anti-correlation - but nothing in between.


Always wrong until not.
masterluc
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November 02, 2015, 04:23:27 PM
 #3995

Correlation is obvious, but underruns 1-2 weeks as I noticed. I.e. gold starts a noticeable drop/rise and bitcoin does the same after 1-2 weeks.

The correlation is stronger if there is eurusd does the same. It means dollar value rises (bitcoin's falling correspondendtly).

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November 02, 2015, 04:26:56 PM
 #3996

Correlation is obvious, but underruns 1-2 weeks as I noticed. I.e. gold starts to drop/rise and bitcoin does the same after 1-2 weeks.

The correlation is stronger if there is eurusd does the same. It means dollar value rises (bitcoin's falling correspondendtly).

Luc, what do think the chances are of continuing divergence with gold, where BTC- on it's way up- passes gold on it's way down?
dmwardjr
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November 02, 2015, 04:27:17 PM
 #3997


Follow me on Trading View for excellent signals in Bitcoin/US dollar - Bitstamp - https://www.tradingview.com/u/ProwdClown/.  Will be on a paid subscription website soon with trading signals and technical education using Wyckoff Method in conjunction with Godmode and Stochastic RSI indicators for many more crypto currency pairs besides BTCUSD.
masterluc
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November 02, 2015, 04:28:18 PM
 #3998

Hourly noticable divergence with china




masterluc
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November 02, 2015, 04:40:37 PM
 #3999

Luc, what do think the chances are of continuing divergence with gold, where BTC- on it's way up- passes gold on it's way down?

Will be surprised much.

Picture is "dangerously bullish".

Dangerously as dump threat and dangerously as rocket moon threat at same time.

Weekly is bullish, very bullish.

But divergence with gold and eur and convergence with LTCUSD makes me skeptic. Litecoin rises before big dump. Add new divergence with china here and I'd say "fuck it".

lebing
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November 02, 2015, 05:23:23 PM
 #4000



Very nice graphic thanks. I wonder however what effect the latest "loosening" of capital controls will have

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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