Analysis

[Morecoin Freeman]

I had sold every last coin I owned at 500. After masterluc announced that analysis ended I was finally convinced that this is the next bubble and bought back in at 470.
Panic sold at 415. Bought back in at 420. Then panic sold 392.  All in all a horrible way to end the day lol

I was in a similar situation while trading alt coins back in 2013-2014.
Immediately following up my best trades with multiple terrible ones, wasting my profit.

I really liked this advice:

When you finished great or (especially) bad trade you should go rest/beer/friends/whores/family. Anything but not trade. Stay away from trade. When emotions will calm, start to think what next.

Because in the end that is what I did to improve. I would turn off my computer and go read a book in the sun.
Really starting to appreciate my profits instead of being in such a hurry to make more all the time.

Realizing there will be plenty of great opportunities down the road brought me happy times.

[1713891554]

1713891554

[pontikis13]

I had sold every last coin I owned at 500. After masterluc announced that analysis ended I was finally convinced that this is the next bubble and bought back in at 470.
Panic sold at 415. Bought back in at 420. Then panic sold 392.  All in all a horrible way to end the day lol

I was in a similar situation while trading alt coins back in 2013-2014.
Immediately following up my best trades with multiple terrible ones, wasting my profit.

I really liked this advice:

When you finished great or (especially) bad trade you should go rest/beer/friends/whores/family. Anything but not trade. Stay away from trade. When emotions will calm, start to think what next.

Because in the end that is what I did to improve. I would turn off my computer and go read a book in the sun.
Really starting to appreciate my profits instead of being in such a hurry to make more all the time.

Realizing there will be plenty of great opportunities down the road brought me happy times.

Thats great advice. Thanks. The past is the past. I'm going to learn from it and move forward.

[DieJohnny]

I had sold every last coin I owned at 500. After masterluc announced that analysis ended I was finally convinced that this is the next bubble and bought back in at 470.
Panic sold at 415. Bought back in at 420. Then panic sold 392.  All in all a horrible way to end the day lol

I was in a similar situation while trading alt coins back in 2013-2014.
Immediately following up my best trades with multiple terrible ones, wasting my profit.

I really liked this advice:

When you finished great or (especially) bad trade you should go rest/beer/friends/whores/family. Anything but not trade. Stay away from trade. When emotions will calm, start to think what next.

Because in the end that is what I did to improve. I would turn off my computer and go read a book in the sun.
Really starting to appreciate my profits instead of being in such a hurry to make more all the time.

Realizing there will be plenty of great opportunities down the road brought me happy times.

I suck at trading these posts help me remember why I don't do it anymore... i am certain there is a frame of mind perfectly suited for trading, just not mine.

[gentlemand]

I suck at trading these posts help me remember why I don't do it anymore... i am certain there is a frame of mind perfectly suited for trading, just not mine.

The most successful traders are those who are not quite of this world. And I wonder how much the outrageous successes have burnt through before they became financial ice men or women. As one Hollywood exec said, if they'd greenlit all the films they'd said no to and blew off the ones they said yes to they'd probably have ended up in the exact same position.

[Tmdz]

It requires a strong gut to put up with the trading market, the worst thing to do is panic trade.  BTC Will always go up and receive boom and busts, make a plan and do some smart trades.  Make a solid trade or 2 but if after that trade some losses follow don't worry about it, relax and things might bounce the next day.  I experienced today was a sharp decline to 404 then it started trading up quickly, got some at 417 as I thought it will probably raise to higher levels later.  Then it dropped to 370 or so and everyone started going nuts losing their minds like this was it btc was doomed.  Meh I held and now prices are at 430 something, likely to rise to some nicer levels later on.  The big thing is don't panic and.. don't trade if your emotions start messing with you.

[molecular]

I decline to analze this. The multi year Great 3 has been started.

Thanks for everything!

[hdbuck]

...

When you finished great or (especially) bad trade you should go rest/beer/friends/whores/family. Anything but not trade. Stay away from trade. When emotions will calm, start to think what next.

Because in the end that is what I did to improve. I would turn off my computer and go read a book in the sun.
Really starting to appreciate my profits instead of being in such a hurry to make more all the time.

Realizing there will be plenty of great opportunities down the road brought me happy times.

nothing like profit "down" the road.

[birr]

We can continue to build on the base of sober analysis established by masterluc.  For me, it has been a real pleasure following the level-headed commentary in this high quality thread.
I am going to throw out an idea that I am developing for my own use that can help bring discipline to one's trades and perhaps take some of the emotion out of things.  I am pursuing a Shannon balancing strategy, modified slightly to accommodate my financial position, and take into consideration some of the things I (think) I have learned about the bitcoin market in more than two years of trading experience.
At its most basic, the strategy entails maintaining a position half btc and half fiat through periodic rebalancing.
Consider entering a volatile market at time t(0) and price x(0).  You pursue a Shannon rebalancing strategy until time t(1).  If the market has returned to price x(0) at time t(1), you will have made a profit, unless trading fees are high and you made too many trades.  You avoid this problem by rebalancing only after significant price moves.
Let's say you enter a market by purchasing some commodity with 50% of your liquid assets.  Price drops by half.  You rebalance to 50% commodity, 50% fiat.  Then the price doubles, you rebalance to 50% again.  Your will have made a profit of 12.5% -- despite the fact that the commodity's price is the same as when you entered the market. This is disregarding trading fees.
By the same token, if the price doubles, and then halves, you would make a profit by rebalancing.
So Shannon beats holding, with the caveat that in a long term uptrend, holding beats Shannon, particularly if the market has low volatility. With bitcoin, we have both: long term uptrend and high volatility.
The Shannon strategy can be modified to take into account bitcoin's long term uptrend, profiting from short term fluctuations and long term appreciation, both.  It's surprisingly simple to do so.  But it requires careful thought and judgment to set the parameters.

[Hunyadi]

Thanks Master for the great thread! I hope, you don't quit.

[Check-0]

Of course it may pop at some point, then recover, but there wasn't even 4rd wave since 240. All this is the local 3rd.

Anyway, this is above my skillz. I waited this great 3, it comes suddenly. I quit. Bye guys. Analysis ended.

But family wanna eat ?!
Maybe some other type of analysis will fit BTC' moves better ?

[bigtimespaghetti]

Missed the last few pages, but this has been a great thread. Very insightful. We all look forward to your re-emergence masterluc.

[p2pbucks]

   Analysis ended ? No , it's just the beginning 

[sinner]

analysis never ends. 

master...... we're almost back to the price you sold at.. you havent missed the rocket launch. come back!

[dmwardjr]

Yes, come on back, Masterluc!!!  

What did Winston Churchill say?  Never, Never, Never give up!!!  

Now's the time you have to get fighting mad and chew the charts a new arss.

[odin.dillinger]

Thanks for all the insights Master.
Best thread on btctalk ever(linguistic puzzles and riddles included).
We eagerly await your resurrection!
All hail Luc

[oda.krell]

Looks like we're living in interesting times again. Volatility beats stagnation, even if extreme volatility like now is difficult to trade precisely. Agreed?

Given the latest run up that broke (for a brief moment) all short to mid term trend deviations I track, I would say the market bias has changed (compared to, say, November last year), and the mid-to-long term bearish scenarios favored by some in here are becoming less likely, i.e. printing a new LL by crash or decay back to 1xx, or even briefly double digits (you know who you are, hehe). I considered these scenarios relatively unlikely already for the past few months due to the January volume, but even less so now.

That said, given how brutal (and frankly, ridiculous) this run-up was, I think an (almost) equally brutal reverse move is possible, if not likely. In (subjective) numbers, I'd put a re-test of 300 in the range of 0.3 to 0.5 likelihood, based on the enormous amplitude of this swing so far, and a breakdown and "secondary" capitulation into the 200s not much lower than these numbers.

Aside: I don't practice EW (although I can see its merits), but instead I tend to look at the market mostly from a momentum perspective ("momentum" in the traders' jargon sense of 'positive autocorrelation', not the finance sense of 'cross-sectional correlation')

[JustAnotherSheep]

Just wanted to chip in with the rest and say thank you for this (and your previous) thread lucif. Your continuous prophetic wisdom among this cesspit of "HODL"s and rocket pictures is what got me interested in TA to begin with, and has led to some nice profit over the years.

Although something tells me you (hopefully) won't be away for good. Analysis never ends!

[keystroke]

We'll miss you lucif. This has been one of the best threads on the forum. Although maybe we can get out and explore the world now rather than constantly hitting refresh.  Come back soon.

[thefiniteidea]

TECHNICALS! Alright, here's what I'm seeing guys...

Well I was wrong.

I have no idea how high this is going. To be fair, I don't think anyone does at this point.

I'm wondering though, we didn't have leveraged buying back 2013 right? At least not to the extent we have today... I wonder how large of a role that is playing here.

OK. So after reality decided to come back, this ended up just being a huge wick on my charts... albeit, enough to have briefly lost faith in my own TA.

Faith *slightly* restored.... but I agree with Luc, that was insane.

[rich93]

Looks like we're living in interesting times again. Volatility beats stagnation, even if extreme volatility like now is difficult to trade precisely. Agreed?

Agreed, Masterluc warmed us not to trade it but I ignored him and lost a pile of cash by panicking. I'll leave it to the professionals and bots to trade this chaos until things calm down and there's a clear direction.

Thanks for your advice Masterluc, and sharing your knowledge with us.