Bitcoin Forum
July 16, 2019, 09:31:11 AM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 0.18.0 [Torrent] (New!)
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Pages: « 1 ... 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 [219] 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 ... 317 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 919011 times)
hdbuck
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1274
Merit: 1000



View Profile
June 12, 2016, 03:51:28 PM
 #4361

from: https://btctrading.wordpress.com/2016/06/12/long-term-update-static-resistance/


Long Term update: Static Resistance



This is a simple monthly chart since Jan.2012, important facts are:

- Accumulation zone #2 is above previous one, #1 in the chart
- The static resistance at $680 is also the 50% of the price swing from the all time high down to the 2015 bottom at ~$150

As i explained in past updates the midpoint or 50% it is one of the strongest and most important resistance/support level. The main trend is obviously up (at least so far) because the low around point 2 in the chart is above point 1 thus is legit to expect a new all time high if this market can break above the $680 static resistance.

Furthermore the fact that the two accumulation zones highlighted in the chart never overlap tell us that the underline long term trend is very strong and because of this i expect a new all time high in case of a strong breakout above $680.


Forecasting resistances



This is a template i use for long term analysis with metatrader 4 platform, first i compute a price regression with 12 or 24 bars/months with a monthly chart then i compute supports and resistances. Dotted lines represents supports/resistances using the recent volatility of XBTUSD, non-dotted lines are levels computed using twice the value of recent bitcoin volatility.

We are exactly at the resistance and this is very interesting because in 1-2 months we will see if bitcoin long term trend is still up or not.

I have taken in account the log-normal distribution of price otherwise i’d have had very bad results in computing the levels, usually it is not required but when prices movements are so high you have to. What does it mean? It’s simple, before doing any calculation first compute the natural log of the price, do your stuff and last reexponentiate the data to have back the price chart with a linear scale.

This is why i do not recommend to use standard bollinger bands with bitcoin on a long term chart, you would have bad results, sometimes with the lower bollinger band going negative! clearly unrealistic.


~LUCIF I SUMMON YOU! COME AND HOLD OUR HANDS IN THE REKKAGE OF THE ATH!
1563269471
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1563269471

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1563269471
Reply with quote  #2

1563269471
Report to moderator
1563269471
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1563269471

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1563269471
Reply with quote  #2

1563269471
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1563269471
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1563269471

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1563269471
Reply with quote  #2

1563269471
Report to moderator
1563269471
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1563269471

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1563269471
Reply with quote  #2

1563269471
Report to moderator
1563269471
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1563269471

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1563269471
Reply with quote  #2

1563269471
Report to moderator
sandiman
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 560
Merit: 501



View Profile
June 12, 2016, 04:38:12 PM
 #4362

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1498855.0

here are some explanations about the last accumulation phase.
masterluc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 938
Merit: 1000



View Profile
June 14, 2016, 03:09:51 PM
 #4363

Hello. Some fractals and extrapolation. Good bye.


podyx
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1820
Merit: 1012



View Profile
June 14, 2016, 03:15:36 PM
 #4364

Looks good enough

In touch with my 7-8k prediction
Hunyadi
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1271
Merit: 1000


☑ ♟ ☐ ♚


View Profile
June 14, 2016, 03:31:01 PM
 #4365

Hello. Some fractals and extrapolation. Good bye.



Nice to see you here!

▂▃▅▇█▓▒░B**-Cultist░▒▓█▇▅▃▂
megadeth
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 283
Merit: 250

bagholder since 2013


View Profile
June 14, 2016, 03:32:48 PM
 #4366

Luc's back.

bagholder since 2013
My sig space is not for sale.
Fatman3001
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1274
Merit: 1003


Make Bitcoin glow with ENIAC


View Profile
June 14, 2016, 04:05:29 PM
 #4367

Hello. Some fractals and extrapolation. Good bye.



Hi Luc! Please tell me I'm gonna be rich.

Eh.. How does this work? Do I have to rub you or something?

"I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse." - Robert Metcalfe, 1995
600watt
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1932
Merit: 1281



View Profile
June 14, 2016, 04:39:33 PM
Last edit: June 14, 2016, 06:32:12 PM by 600watt
 #4368


Hi Luc! Please tell me I'm gonna be rich.

Eh.. How does this work? Do I have to rub you or something?


rub your local bircoin atm. it works.

edit: bitcoin  Tongue
klee
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1498
Merit: 1000



View Profile
June 14, 2016, 04:50:07 PM
 #4369


Hi Luc! Please tell me I'm gonna be rich.

Eh.. How does this work? Do I have to rub you or something?


rub your local bircoin atm. it works.
Beercoin?
oda.krell
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007



View Profile
June 14, 2016, 05:22:39 PM
 #4370

Happy to see you again, luc. Glad to see you're enthusiastic! To me it looks like a correction is in place first however.

Looks like price could hit $650 to $640 over the next days. As long as it finds support there, that would still allow for a continuation of the rally afterwards (so it's not necessarily incompatible with your prediction).

Anyway, since I don't use EW, the only thing I do is (haphazardly) extrapolate from simple patterns over some low-pass filters I like and track, which is more reactive than predictive usually. In other words: I know precious little about the bigger picture :D

Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!
Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure.
Download the source or executables for Windows/OSX/Linux/Android from, and only from, the official Electrum homepage.
wlefever
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1164
Merit: 1000



View Profile
June 14, 2016, 05:32:21 PM
 #4371

Welp, that about settles it. Strap in from here boys! New ATH ahead. BTC

600watt
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1932
Merit: 1281



View Profile
June 14, 2016, 06:33:38 PM
 #4372


Beercoin?
[/quote]

proof of booze algo.
jaredboice
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 546
Merit: 500



View Profile
June 15, 2016, 01:50:54 AM
 #4373

The bad analisis and the Reality......








Dave... Dave... Dave...
Don't you pay attention? Of course not... You are a troll! The context is right there in the post you quoted but managed to snip out to make your case seem more justified. This post https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.msg12462173#msg12462173 contains a quote from this post https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.msg11887151#msg11887151 which was posted earlier in July and has a target of what's that? Around 600 or so? No shit!
Since you bulls were weak little sissy girls (still are, really), I made that white chart as a sort of "Right now" outlook if the larger B never came to fruition and that $315 high was all you could muster. Now it is FINALLY materializing, and my outlook still isn't changing. My view remains that this is still the same suckers rally in a larger bear market. Now, it may not get to $73, but it will go down again. When it does, do I get to scour your post history for "great" calls? Nah, I wouldn't do that. I'm bigger than that and have more productive things to do with my time.

We'll see who has the last laugh though.
Don't claim victory in a battle you haven't yet won. Wink

Shorting since June 3rd (and probably far prior according to his Bearish Sentiment Signature) has done a lot of good for RyNinDaCleM   Cheesy
marcus_of_augustus
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2926
Merit: 1165



View Profile
June 15, 2016, 06:39:32 AM
Last edit: June 15, 2016, 06:53:46 AM by marcus_of_augustus
 #4374

Does this have the marking of a "super bubble," taking us into low 6 digit territory by 2017? Or, just a one-off event?

I'm interpretting that masterluc thinks we are at a similar place as early in the April 2013 run which went  from ~$15 to $266 ... i.e. x17. So beginning at $420 x17 ~ $7k ... and maybe another mega run  (x5 ~ $32k) after that as per Nov. '13 sometime later, say Jan. '17??

ft73
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 559
Merit: 504


View Profile
June 16, 2016, 03:52:41 PM
 #4375

742$ now. Feeling healthy correction towards (at least) 650$ is incoming.
I was wrong MANY times though Smiley
sandiman
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 560
Merit: 501



View Profile
June 16, 2016, 04:16:58 PM
 #4376

742$ now. Feeling healthy correction towards (at least) 650$ is incoming.
I was wrong MANY times though Smiley


I think we may try 800$ before that.
masterluc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 938
Merit: 1000



View Profile
June 21, 2016, 01:09:49 PM
 #4377

Daily sma20 hit (650) - good point to get into.

Hunyadi
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1271
Merit: 1000


☑ ♟ ☐ ♚


View Profile
June 21, 2016, 01:25:47 PM
 #4378

Daily sma20 hit (650) - good point to get into.

It's not "ended" anymore! Welcome back Master!

▂▃▅▇█▓▒░B**-Cultist░▒▓█▇▅▃▂
BldSwtTrs
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 963
Merit: 1002


View Profile
June 21, 2016, 01:35:53 PM
 #4379

Yeah analysis is back Smiley
sandiman
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 560
Merit: 501



View Profile
June 21, 2016, 01:41:03 PM
 #4380

what do you think of that chart from a community member masterluc?



Pages: « 1 ... 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 [219] 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 ... 317 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!