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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 923398 times)
mymenace
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December 23, 2017, 11:47:00 PM
 #5601

The predictions paint 3 EXTREMELY positive scenarios and everyone is shitting their pants.  Lol.

Such impatience.

Much learning opportunity.

Memory of the 2014-2015 bear market has left us seared with scars, wounds only recently healed.

I lived through the 2014 and 2015 bear market, and I continued to hold and buy BTC all the way down from $1200 to $200-ish, and even ran out of money a few times, so yeah, I used to feel a little burnt and skeptical because of that particular bear market and the severity of it - but surely the events of the past 2 years have brought more and more confidence to me, and especially the past 4 months have demonstrated over and over that we are in a bull market and has also provided considerable equity including BTC price performance that exceeds 3-4 times the more bullish of my earlier contemplations for this same time period.  

Surely, currently we remain in a bull market, and merely because we are suffering in a bit of a correction in the 45% territory from $19,666 to $11,060, we would need to have a whole hell-of-a-lot more BTC price correction - say perhaps in the below $5k territory within the coming weeks to perhaps begin to discuss the possibility that we could, perhaps, be transitioning from a bull market to a bear market.  Otherwise, until shown otherwise, we remain in a bull market, which means that the odds of up are greater than the odds of down...

Sure, we can continue to watch price and the status might change, but there is no reason to get scaredy pants off because of a simple fucking and more or less normal correction.  If you recall we have had about 3 corrections 40%, 30% and 27% in the past 4 months, prior to our current correction, and if we look at the whole calendar year, we could put together a list of additional corrections, and we can even go back another year to see that we had at least one decent correction in 2016 too (in August following the Bitfinex "hack" situation).. that did not cause a transition out of our current, ongoing and seemingly persistent bull market.. .. in other words way too early to call.. or even to become scared about the possibility of transition into such bear market... which seems to remain on the less than 50% side of the probabilities ledger.

seems to me everyone waiting for the doubling in a week, if it occurs, this indicator has preceded every top



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JayJuanGee
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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December 23, 2017, 11:58:33 PM
 #5602

The predictions paint 3 EXTREMELY positive scenarios and everyone is shitting their pants.  Lol.

Such impatience.

Much learning opportunity.

Memory of the 2014-2015 bear market has left us seared with scars, wounds only recently healed.

I lived through the 2014 and 2015 bear market, and I continued to hold and buy BTC all the way down from $1200 to $200-ish, and even ran out of money a few times, so yeah, I used to feel a little burnt and skeptical because of that particular bear market and the severity of it - but surely the events of the past 2 years have brought more and more confidence to me, and especially the past 4 months have demonstrated over and over that we are in a bull market and has also provided considerable equity including BTC price performance that exceeds 3-4 times the more bullish of my earlier contemplations for this same time period.  

Surely, currently we remain in a bull market, and merely because we are suffering in a bit of a correction in the 45% territory from $19,666 to $11,060, we would need to have a whole hell-of-a-lot more BTC price correction - say perhaps in the below $5k territory within the coming weeks to perhaps begin to discuss the possibility that we could, perhaps, be transitioning from a bull market to a bear market.  Otherwise, until shown otherwise, we remain in a bull market, which means that the odds of up are greater than the odds of down...

Sure, we can continue to watch price and the status might change, but there is no reason to get scaredy pants off because of a simple fucking and more or less normal correction.  If you recall we have had about 3 corrections 40%, 30% and 27% in the past 4 months, prior to our current correction, and if we look at the whole calendar year, we could put together a list of additional corrections, and we can even go back another year to see that we had at least one decent correction in 2016 too (in August following the Bitfinex "hack" situation).. that did not cause a transition out of our current, ongoing and seemingly persistent bull market.. .. in other words way too early to call.. or even to become scared about the possibility of transition into such bear market... which seems to remain on the less than 50% side of the probabilities ledger.

seems to me everyone waiting for the doubling in a week, if it occurs, this indicator has preceded every top

Certainly, I am not saying that.  I am saying that BTC performance is 3x to 4x beyond my earlier relatively bullish expectations, and I said that there is still decently high probabilities for up.

I am personally prepared for either price direction, but I just think that the odds are a bit against down, at this time, but no way am I putting any kind of "expected" quantity on the up, because I consider any up or additional UP to be icing on a very tasty cake that we already have and a very likely scenario that not only the cake is going to continue to be tasty, but could become even more tasty - and that is no way expecting any kind of 2x or whatever.. even though I certainly would not be complaining if another 2x were to occur, which also has decent odds, so it seems at the current moment...

TLDR:  what I am saying having good odds of something happening is not the same as expecting that same thing to happen or some variant of that same thing.

Put BTC here: 35EVP8EePt8dyvKHaB7bXaRmKLm22YgRCA

How much alt coin diversification is necessary? if you are investing in Bitcoin, then perhaps 0%?
Bitcoinaire
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December 24, 2017, 12:11:19 AM
 #5603

His latest...




https://vk.com/bitcoin_vanga
Torque
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December 24, 2017, 12:14:46 AM
 #5604

Shit anyone thinking that after Bitcoin doing a 19X runup for the year, only to fall 50% and should it stay there for another year is somehow awful and a complete failure, really should rethink their lives.

Or at least their expectations around what they think Bitcoin should do for them. Lol.
birr
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December 24, 2017, 01:46:40 AM
 #5605

Nobody wrote any of those things.
cAPSLOCK
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December 24, 2017, 02:02:15 AM
 #5606

The predictions paint 3 EXTREMELY positive scenarios and everyone is shitting their pants.  Lol.

Such impatience.

Much learning opportunity.

Memory of the 2014-2015 bear market has left us seared with scars, wounds only recently healed.

Oh... I was here.  I remember that time. 

The good news is we will never have to live through THAT bear again.  Wink
Gab0
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December 24, 2017, 02:19:02 AM
 #5607

Nobody wrote any of those things.

Leave it, he lives in a strange parallel reality.
windjc
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December 24, 2017, 03:40:43 AM
 #5608

I have a hard time seeing a 2 year long bear market, there would have to be terrible news. I guess a crash from 70k and an exchange closing might do, time will tell.

There won't be a 2 year bear market. There will be a 6 year bear market.

But before that there will be one final push far above 20k.

Well, Id love to know how this bull market is 3x more powerful than the last 2. It certainly doesn't look that way on the log chart.

And its pretty vague to say we go "far above 20k" when predicting exact consequences of such "power".
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December 24, 2017, 07:38:16 AM
Last edit: December 24, 2017, 06:28:57 PM by Biodom
 #5609


Why would we be near the long term top when hype just started two-three mo ago or even at thanksgiving in earnest?
% of people with real wallets-not more than 5%, maybe even less.

To me this sounds like Internet circa 1996, maybe 1997.
I do consider the latest 'crash' to be an equivalent of the 1997 LTCM related "crash".
The internet "bubble" continued for 2-2.5 years afterwards.

We still have to have the mass participation here.
Once we get over 15% of the populace, then, maybe, we will be at the top with $2-4 tril or maybe even $8 tril market cap for all things crypto.
snowdropfore
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December 24, 2017, 10:46:21 AM
 #5610

what did masterluc mean in his post?? does that mean we are in bear market now?? going down to 2k-5k??  i think i need to holding my coins when the price going up to 70k .do not panic.

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itod
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December 24, 2017, 11:54:33 AM
 #5611

what did masterluc mean in his post?? does that mean we are in bear market now?? going down to 2k-5k??  i think i need to holding my coins when the price going up to 70k .do not panic.

As far as I've understood he said if we touch 10K again it's double bottom and right to 70K after that, and if we go now to 2-5K instead of 10K then right up to 100K after that.
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December 24, 2017, 02:46:42 PM
Last edit: December 24, 2017, 03:07:04 PM by Hope_Trader
 #5612

what did masterluc mean in his post?? does that mean we are in bear market now?? going down to 2k-5k??  i think i need to holding my coins when the price going up to 70k .do not panic.

As far as I've understood he said if we touch 10K again it's double bottom and right to 70K after that, and if we go now to 2-5K instead of 10K then right up to 100K after that.

To avoid confusion, the only "right up to" is "2. The classic output bitcoin from the bear trap is bluntly up. At 70k. Up to a month"

Other options he suggested were a long bear market, then upto 100k, or 2 month-ish ranging then continuation.

Personally I think 2 is the least probable at this stage. Let's see how the next price action unfolds...
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December 24, 2017, 03:50:07 PM
 #5613


1. The giant triangle from 20k to 10k (+/- maybe a little lower) - with a further exit under 70k. Well, or some kind of consolidation - a flag, a wedge, a pennant ... A month or two


flag wedge a pennant? whats this ?
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December 24, 2017, 04:00:12 PM
 #5614


1. The giant triangle from 20k to 10k (+/- maybe a little lower) - with a further exit under 70k. Well, or some kind of consolidation - a flag, a wedge, a pennant ... A month or two


flag wedge a pennant? whats this ?
Three words for the same thing.  It's a chart pattern where the price fluctuates in a range that gets narrower and narrower, like the triangular shape of a pennant.  When you finally get to the point of the triangle, the expectation is that the price will break out -- either up or down.
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December 24, 2017, 06:02:03 PM
 #5615

Quote
Three words for the same thing.  It's a chart pattern where the price fluctuates in a range that gets narrower and narrower, like the triangular shape of a pennant.  When you finally get to the point of the triangle, the expectation is that the price will break out -- either up or down.

Ok, seems thus like we are having a OR a positive outcome OR something between bad and good which can end both ways OR worst case scenario back to six months ago and several years of nothing interesting and then moon.
Looks like a mexican standoff now, everybody is looking at everybody, what just happened and what is gonna happen now.
Fascinating but also scary as hell
I'm thinking rather 1 or 2, 3 is actually doomsday scenario to me, but it sure could  Shocked
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December 24, 2017, 07:03:04 PM
 #5616

Quote
Three words for the same thing.  It's a chart pattern where the price fluctuates in a range that gets narrower and narrower, like the triangular shape of a pennant.  When you finally get to the point of the triangle, the expectation is that the price will break out -- either up or down.

Ok, seems thus like we are having a OR a positive outcome OR something between bad and good which can end both ways OR worst case scenario back to six months ago and several years of nothing interesting and then moon.
Looks like a mexican standoff now, everybody is looking at everybody, what just happened and what is gonna happen now.
Fascinating but also scary as hell
I'm thinking rather 1 or 2, 3 is actually doomsday scenario to me, but it sure could  Shocked

this is precisely why I think ranging similar to post April 2013 is on the cards. Traders will trade both sides, the range will get tighter, and eventually we'll continue upwards. Too many long term bulls for this to really drop IMO. Despite the propensity towards mass panic for all the newcomers, I'm sure enough have been indoctrinated into the hodl mentality by now, and also enough experienced bitcoin traders who've seen it all before ready to scoop up coins at key levels. 

Luc hasn't really given us much here, he's given us the classic "up, down or sideways" possibles that a market always has. All of them end in up though, ofc Wink
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December 24, 2017, 07:39:57 PM
 #5617

The latest weekly candle from bitstamp
https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg30zigWeeklyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

How does this relate to what Vanga said here

In any case, we must look at the weekly candle - as it closes. If 10k will stand on a week level, if it does not hit the previous week bottom - the price will soon recover and popret further.

B любoм cлyчae нaдo cмoтpeть нa нeдeльнyю cвeчy - кaк oнa зaкpoeтcя. Ecли 10к ycтoит нa нeдeльнoм ypoвнe, ecли нe yдapит в пpeдыдyщee нeдeльнoe днo - цeнa вcкope вoccтaнoвитcя и пoпpeт дaльшe.
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December 24, 2017, 10:20:00 PM
 #5618

The latest weekly candle from bitstamp
https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg30zigWeeklyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

How does this relate to what Vanga said here

In any case, we must look at the weekly candle - as it closes. If 10k will stand on a week level, if it does not hit the previous week bottom - the price will soon recover and popret further.

B любoм cлyчae нaдo cмoтpeть нa нeдeльнyю cвeчy - кaк oнa зaкpoeтcя. Ecли 10к ycтoит нa нeдeльнoм ypoвнe, ecли нe yдapит в пpeдыдyщee нeдeльнoe днo - цeнa вcкope вoccтaнoвитcя и пoпpeт дaльшe.


This is how I interpret it. 

a)  We must stay above 10k for the next few weeks.
b)  For this part, we need at least a second week to compare candles.  Week two candle's bottom should not hit the bottom of the previous week's candle.  The Investopedia term for this is a higher low.  The lowest of each week should be higher as we progress.  View picture of a higher low below.

Example here.
http://fxbinarypoint.com/attachments/ch-png.11/
Millionero
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December 24, 2017, 10:59:21 PM
 #5619

He said we must look at the closing of the weekly candle.  If it's above the previous week's bottom -- we recover.
But does previous week's bottom mean the previous week's closing or the previous week's low (the wick)?
Taken literally, the previous week's bottom is the lowest price of the week, in other words the candle wick.
Which would mean we still have breathing room.
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December 24, 2017, 11:48:29 PM
 #5620

He said we must look at the closing of the weekly candle.  If it's above the previous week's bottom -- we recover.
But does previous week's bottom mean the previous week's closing or the previous week's low (the wick)?
Taken literally, the previous week's bottom is the lowest price of the week, in other words the candle wick.
Which would mean we still have breathing room.
It's done. The week he was talking about is over. We closed above the previous week's low, which prevented an ugly reversal candle.
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