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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 940424 times)
oda.krell
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December 08, 2013, 08:15:44 PM
 #681

From my side, much respect to waveaddict and masterluc.

It's really amazing how big greed is on human nature, lots of people are expecting to see +1100 prices by next week after droping from 1200 to 550. Sorry guys but is not going to happend in a short time, not a single good inversor/trader is going to panic buy or going long right now until waters calms down, in a few weeks at least.

This is time to take profits, but much people are still in denial phase.

Yeah... This is kind of bullshit. I would suggest not to throw around big words like "denial" and "greed", because exactly the same arguments were thrown around each step along the way to 1200 from the April low. Sometimes they were appropriate, most of the time, they weren't, as evidenced by the 1200 ATH.

Note: I'm not saying I think we're back on track immediately to a new ATH. But we just saw a halving of the ATH, and some (moderate) signs for support above 600. So another halving event like the one masterluc expects is dubios in my opinion. Not impossible, but not the most likely scenario either.

Sorry but english is not my natural language, how should i call those emotions then? I was not saying this in a unrespectful way, and i don't want to offense anyone, of course not, i'm only calling names to emotions.

We are in a downtren, indicators says we are going down, this is not a normal correction don't you think?

(Sorry if I came across too aggressive)

It's clear we saw major correction, true. To be followed by another major correction (which is what lucif expects)? That would confirm we're probably going to see a longer lasting downtrend. But I'm not sure that'll happen... Come Monday, we're going down to 300? Are you sure about that? Because to me the market right now mainly looks the same way I feel: undecided. We're hovering precariously close to the 30d average (on all exchanges), the bottoms of the smaller waves since 576 are slowly rising, volume paints a pretty uncertain picture, order books across all 3 major exchanges are holding up quite nicely actually,... like I said, to me it looks like it could swing either way.

By the way, I wasn't against profit taking at all. I sold at 1000, and don't regret it for obvious reasons. the question is, have we seen the major part of this correction, or are we in for a long bear market.

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December 08, 2013, 08:23:06 PM
 #682

From my side, much respect to waveaddict and masterluc.

It's really amazing how big greed is on human nature, lots of people are expecting to see +1100 prices by next week after droping from 1200 to 550. Sorry guys but is not going to happend in a short time, not a single good inversor/trader is going to panic buy or going long right now until waters calms down, in a few weeks at least.

This is time to take profits, but much people are still in denial phase.

Yeah... This is kind of bullshit. I would suggest not to throw around big words like "denial" and "greed", because exactly the same arguments were thrown around each step along the way to 1200 from the April low. Sometimes they were appropriate, most of the time, they weren't, as evidenced by the 1200 ATH.

Note: I'm not saying I think we're back on track immediately to a new ATH. But we just saw a halving of the ATH, and some (moderate) signs for support above 600. So another halving event like the one masterluc expects is dubios in my opinion. Not impossible, but not the most likely scenario either.

Sorry but english is not my natural language, how should i call those emotions then? I was not saying this in a unrespectful way, and i don't want to offense anyone, of course not, i'm only calling names to emotions.

We are in a downtren, indicators says we are going down, this is not a normal correction don't you think?

(Sorry if I came across too aggressive)

It's clear we saw major correction, true. To be followed by another major correction (which is what lucif expects)? That would confirm we're probably going to see a longer lasting downtrend. But I'm not sure that'll happen... Come Monday, we're going down to 300? Are you sure about that? Because to me the market right now mainly looks the same way I feel: undecided. We're hovering precariously close to the 30d average (on all exchanges), the bottoms of the smaller waves since 576 are slowly rising, volume paints a pretty uncertain picture, order books across all 3 major exchanges are holding up quite nicely actually,... like I said, to me it looks like it could swing either way.

By the way, I wasn't against profit taking at all. I sold at 1000, and don't regret it for obvious reasons. the question is, have we seen the major part of this correction, or are we in for a long bear market.

I feel exactly the same way as you. Short term going down makes sense. But a prolonged bear market does not.

I think sometime traders feel like the market is driven by traders. Just like investors think the market is driven by purists that will follow bitcoin to the end. I think it falls somewhere in the middle. But I just do not see how, barring worldwide economic collapse, that the prospects for bitcoin are not very bullish over the next 12 months. We are just now seeing the budding of a true eco-system. Up until now, bitcoin WAS a truly speculative vehicle.  So this rally/crash/depression scenario that has played out twice before - I am a little skeptical of now.

That doesn't mean we couldn't go lower to the 400s and snap out of it fairly quickly though. Although that might violate a wave, I'm not sure. Wink
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December 08, 2013, 08:27:20 PM
 #683

From my side, much respect to waveaddict and masterluc.

It's really amazing how big greed is on human nature, lots of people are expecting to see +1100 prices by next week after droping from 1200 to 550. Sorry guys but is not going to happend in a short time, not a single good inversor/trader is going to panic buy or going long right now until waters calms down, in a few weeks at least.

This is time to take profits, but much people are still in denial phase.

Yeah... This is kind of bullshit. I would suggest not to throw around big words like "denial" and "greed", because exactly the same arguments were thrown around each step along the way to 1200 from the April low. Sometimes they were appropriate, most of the time, they weren't, as evidenced by the 1200 ATH.

Note: I'm not saying I think we're back on track immediately to a new ATH. But we just saw a halving of the ATH, and some (moderate) signs for support above 600. So another halving event like the one masterluc expects is dubios in my opinion. Not impossible, but not the most likely scenario either.

Sorry but english is not my natural language, how should i call those emotions then? I was not saying this in a unrespectful way, and i don't want to offense anyone, of course not, i'm only calling names to emotions.

We are in a downtren, indicators says we are going down, this is not a normal correction don't you think?

(Sorry if I came across too aggressive)

It's clear we saw major correction, true. To be followed by another major correction (which is what lucif expects)? That would confirm we're probably going to see a longer lasting downtrend. But I'm not sure that'll happen... Come Monday, we're going down to 300? Are you sure about that? Because to me the market right now mainly looks the same way I feel: undecided. We're hovering precariously close to the 30d average (on all exchanges), the bottoms of the smaller waves since 576 are slowly rising, volume paints a pretty uncertain picture, order books across all 3 major exchanges are holding up quite nicely actually,... like I said, to me it looks like it could swing either way.

By the way, I wasn't against profit taking at all. I sold at 1000, and don't regret it for obvious reasons. the question is, have we seen the major part of this correction, or are we in for a long bear market.

I feel exactly the same way as you. Short term going down makes sense. But a prolonged bear market does not.

I think sometime traders feel like the market is driven by traders. Just like investors think the market is driven by purists that will follow bitcoin to the end. I think it falls somewhere in the middle. But I just do not see how, barring worldwide economic collapse, that the prospects for bitcoin are not very bullish over the next 12 months. We are just now seeing the budding of a true eco-system. Up until now, bitcoin WAS a truly speculative vehicle.  So this rally/crash/depression scenario that has played out twice before - I am a little skeptical of now.

That doesn't mean we couldn't go lower to the 400s and snap out of it fairly quickly though. Although that might violate a wave, I'm not sure. Wink

Gold and silver have been in a bear market since their respective bubbles popped in 2011. Why should it be different for bitcoin?
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December 08, 2013, 08:33:21 PM
 #684

From my side, much respect to waveaddict and masterluc.

It's really amazing how big greed is on human nature, lots of people are expecting to see +1100 prices by next week after droping from 1200 to 550. Sorry guys but is not going to happend in a short time, not a single good inversor/trader is going to panic buy or going long right now until waters calms down, in a few weeks at least.

This is time to take profits, but much people are still in denial phase.

Yeah... This is kind of bullshit. I would suggest not to throw around big words like "denial" and "greed", because exactly the same arguments were thrown around each step along the way to 1200 from the April low. Sometimes they were appropriate, most of the time, they weren't, as evidenced by the 1200 ATH.

Note: I'm not saying I think we're back on track immediately to a new ATH. But we just saw a halving of the ATH, and some (moderate) signs for support above 600. So another halving event like the one masterluc expects is dubios in my opinion. Not impossible, but not the most likely scenario either.

Sorry but english is not my natural language, how should i call those emotions then? I was not saying this in a unrespectful way, and i don't want to offense anyone, of course not, i'm only calling names to emotions.

We are in a downtren, indicators says we are going down, this is not a normal correction don't you think?

(Sorry if I came across too aggressive)

It's clear we saw major correction, true. To be followed by another major correction (which is what lucif expects)? That would confirm we're probably going to see a longer lasting downtrend. But I'm not sure that'll happen... Come Monday, we're going down to 300? Are you sure about that? Because to me the market right now mainly looks the same way I feel: undecided. We're hovering precariously close to the 30d average (on all exchanges), the bottoms of the smaller waves since 576 are slowly rising, volume paints a pretty uncertain picture, order books across all 3 major exchanges are holding up quite nicely actually,... like I said, to me it looks like it could swing either way.

By the way, I wasn't against profit taking at all. I sold at 1000, and don't regret it for obvious reasons. the question is, have we seen the major part of this correction, or are we in for a long bear market.

I feel exactly the same way as you. Short term going down makes sense. But a prolonged bear market does not.

I think sometime traders feel like the market is driven by traders. Just like investors think the market is driven by purists that will follow bitcoin to the end. I think it falls somewhere in the middle. But I just do not see how, barring worldwide economic collapse, that the prospects for bitcoin are not very bullish over the next 12 months. We are just now seeing the budding of a true eco-system. Up until now, bitcoin WAS a truly speculative vehicle.  So this rally/crash/depression scenario that has played out twice before - I am a little skeptical of now.

That doesn't mean we couldn't go lower to the 400s and snap out of it fairly quickly though. Although that might violate a wave, I'm not sure. Wink

Gold and silver have been in a bear market since their respective bubbles popped in 2011. Why should it be different for bitcoin?

I think your question is in a nutshell exactly why I think EW theory is not the be all and end all.

If you can't see the difference between Bitcoin and Gold/Silver then I do not know where to start. I don't mean to condescend, because we probably just fundamentally disagree, but the basic fact that bitcoin is a disruptive technology and the other two are established precious metals is only the beginning of their fundamental differences.

If bitcoin is in bear market for the next 2 years, I believe it will die.  For bitcoin to succeed it must follow more closely the growth curve of a new rising technology, not a commodity.
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December 08, 2013, 08:35:44 PM
 #685

edit: and what is it with all the defensiveness in this thread? how many times must someone complement the OP until they can avoid the condescension of EW theory traders? Jess. I bought low and sold high too guys. I basically made the important buys and trades that most here did without staring at charts 24/7. It wasn't rocket science.

As long as you stay away from trying to discredit TA, EW, or its practitioners, I'm pretty sure this whole fiasco will go down as a giant misunderstanding. Just try to keep an open mind, listen, and be respectful, especially when you are posting on someone else's thread. 

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December 08, 2013, 08:38:15 PM
 #686

edit: and what is it with all the defensiveness in this thread? how many times must someone complement the OP until they can avoid the condescension of EW theory traders? Jess. I bought low and sold high too guys. I basically made the important buys and trades that most here did without staring at charts 24/7. It wasn't rocket science.

As long as you stay away from trying to discredit TA, EW, or its practitioners, I'm pretty sure this whole fiasco will go down as a giant misunderstanding. Just try to keep an open mind, listen, and be respectful, especially when you are posting on someone else's thread. 

I hope it was a misunderstanding as I have no ill will. That is why I complement OP on his work.

I do think there is a healthy discussion to be had with EW traders about the fundamentals of bitcoin away from the charts themselves. As I think it is important to have a healthy discussion with "to the moon" purists about the benefits of TA.
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December 08, 2013, 08:48:12 PM
 #687

From my side, much respect to waveaddict and masterluc.

It's really amazing how big greed is on human nature, lots of people are expecting to see +1100 prices by next week after droping from 1200 to 550. Sorry guys but is not going to happend in a short time, not a single good inversor/trader is going to panic buy or going long right now until waters calms down, in a few weeks at least.

This is time to take profits, but much people are still in denial phase.

Yeah... This is kind of bullshit. I would suggest not to throw around big words like "denial" and "greed", because exactly the same arguments were thrown around each step along the way to 1200 from the April low. Sometimes they were appropriate, most of the time, they weren't, as evidenced by the 1200 ATH.

Note: I'm not saying I think we're back on track immediately to a new ATH. But we just saw a halving of the ATH, and some (moderate) signs for support above 600. So another halving event like the one masterluc expects is dubios in my opinion. Not impossible, but not the most likely scenario either.

Sorry but english is not my natural language, how should i call those emotions then? I was not saying this in a unrespectful way, and i don't want to offense anyone, of course not, i'm only calling names to emotions.

We are in a downtren, indicators says we are going down, this is not a normal correction don't you think?

(Sorry if I came across too aggressive)

It's clear we saw major correction, true. To be followed by another major correction (which is what lucif expects)? That would confirm we're probably going to see a longer lasting downtrend. But I'm not sure that'll happen... Come Monday, we're going down to 300? Are you sure about that? Because to me the market right now mainly looks the same way I feel: undecided. We're hovering precariously close to the 30d average (on all exchanges), the bottoms of the smaller waves since 576 are slowly rising, volume paints a pretty uncertain picture, order books across all 3 major exchanges are holding up quite nicely actually,... like I said, to me it looks like it could swing either way.

By the way, I wasn't against profit taking at all. I sold at 1000, and don't regret it for obvious reasons. the question is, have we seen the major part of this correction, or are we in for a long bear market.

I feel exactly the same way as you. Short term going down makes sense. But a prolonged bear market does not.

I think sometime traders feel like the market is driven by traders. Just like investors think the market is driven by purists that will follow bitcoin to the end. I think it falls somewhere in the middle. But I just do not see how, barring worldwide economic collapse, that the prospects for bitcoin are not very bullish over the next 12 months. We are just now seeing the budding of a true eco-system. Up until now, bitcoin WAS a truly speculative vehicle.  So this rally/crash/depression scenario that has played out twice before - I am a little skeptical of now.

That doesn't mean we couldn't go lower to the 400s and snap out of it fairly quickly though. Although that might violate a wave, I'm not sure. Wink

Gold and silver have been in a bear market since their respective bubbles popped in 2011. Why should it be different for bitcoin?

I think your question is in a nutshell exactly why I think EW theory is not the be all and end all.

If you can't see the difference between Bitcoin and Gold/Silver then I do not know where to start. I don't mean to condescend, because we probably just fundamentally disagree, but the basic fact that bitcoin is a disruptive technology and the other two are established precious metals is only the beginning of their fundamental differences.

If bitcoin is in bear market for the next 2 years, I believe it will die.  For bitcoin to succeed it must follow more closely the growth curve of a new rising technology, not a commodity.

I'm sorry but all I see is the classic "but this time it's different" bubble pattern.
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December 08, 2013, 08:56:42 PM
 #688

Trend is down. It is possible to see a form of a wedge. For me, these two things combined mean danger.


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December 08, 2013, 08:56:49 PM
 #689

From my side, much respect to waveaddict and masterluc.

It's really amazing how big greed is on human nature, lots of people are expecting to see +1100 prices by next week after droping from 1200 to 550. Sorry guys but is not going to happend in a short time, not a single good inversor/trader is going to panic buy or going long right now until waters calms down, in a few weeks at least.

This is time to take profits, but much people are still in denial phase.

Yeah... This is kind of bullshit. I would suggest not to throw around big words like "denial" and "greed", because exactly the same arguments were thrown around each step along the way to 1200 from the April low. Sometimes they were appropriate, most of the time, they weren't, as evidenced by the 1200 ATH.

Note: I'm not saying I think we're back on track immediately to a new ATH. But we just saw a halving of the ATH, and some (moderate) signs for support above 600. So another halving event like the one masterluc expects is dubios in my opinion. Not impossible, but not the most likely scenario either.

Sorry but english is not my natural language, how should i call those emotions then? I was not saying this in a unrespectful way, and i don't want to offense anyone, of course not, i'm only calling names to emotions.

We are in a downtren, indicators says we are going down, this is not a normal correction don't you think?

(Sorry if I came across too aggressive)

It's clear we saw major correction, true. To be followed by another major correction (which is what lucif expects)? That would confirm we're probably going to see a longer lasting downtrend. But I'm not sure that'll happen... Come Monday, we're going down to 300? Are you sure about that? Because to me the market right now mainly looks the same way I feel: undecided. We're hovering precariously close to the 30d average (on all exchanges), the bottoms of the smaller waves since 576 are slowly rising, volume paints a pretty uncertain picture, order books across all 3 major exchanges are holding up quite nicely actually,... like I said, to me it looks like it could swing either way.

By the way, I wasn't against profit taking at all. I sold at 1000, and don't regret it for obvious reasons. the question is, have we seen the major part of this correction, or are we in for a long bear market.

I feel exactly the same way as you. Short term going down makes sense. But a prolonged bear market does not.

I think sometime traders feel like the market is driven by traders. Just like investors think the market is driven by purists that will follow bitcoin to the end. I think it falls somewhere in the middle. But I just do not see how, barring worldwide economic collapse, that the prospects for bitcoin are not very bullish over the next 12 months. We are just now seeing the budding of a true eco-system. Up until now, bitcoin WAS a truly speculative vehicle.  So this rally/crash/depression scenario that has played out twice before - I am a little skeptical of now.

That doesn't mean we couldn't go lower to the 400s and snap out of it fairly quickly though. Although that might violate a wave, I'm not sure. Wink

Gold and silver have been in a bear market since their respective bubbles popped in 2011. Why should it be different for bitcoin?

I think your question is in a nutshell exactly why I think EW theory is not the be all and end all.

If you can't see the difference between Bitcoin and Gold/Silver then I do not know where to start. I don't mean to condescend, because we probably just fundamentally disagree, but the basic fact that bitcoin is a disruptive technology and the other two are established precious metals is only the beginning of their fundamental differences.

If bitcoin is in bear market for the next 2 years, I believe it will die.  For bitcoin to succeed it must follow more closely the growth curve of a new rising technology, not a commodity.

I'm sorry but all I see is the classic "but this time it's different" bubble pattern.

If bitcoin goes into a 2 year bear market then "this time it's different."  That has never happened before. It was in a bear market for a 1 1/2 after the 2011 crash when bitcoin had zero eco-system, zero non-dark companies accepting it, zero endorsement from anyone in the VC or financial arenas, and the list goes on and on and on.  

With bitcoin's short history, every "bubble" HAS been different.  Where was the long term bear market after April? All the way until June? Not much of a bear market. Bitcoin went up 150% in 2012 and 7000% in 2013.  Where is the "this time its the same?"

Bitcoin hasnt behaved like gold ever. But this time its different?

I just disagree fundamentally. But the fun part is, we will get to find out soon enough.
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December 08, 2013, 09:06:43 PM
 #690

From my side, much respect to waveaddict and masterluc.

It's really amazing how big greed is on human nature, lots of people are expecting to see +1100 prices by next week after droping from 1200 to 550. Sorry guys but is not going to happend in a short time, not a single good inversor/trader is going to panic buy or going long right now until waters calms down, in a few weeks at least.

This is time to take profits, but much people are still in denial phase.

Yeah... This is kind of bullshit. I would suggest not to throw around big words like "denial" and "greed", because exactly the same arguments were thrown around each step along the way to 1200 from the April low. Sometimes they were appropriate, most of the time, they weren't, as evidenced by the 1200 ATH.

Note: I'm not saying I think we're back on track immediately to a new ATH. But we just saw a halving of the ATH, and some (moderate) signs for support above 600. So another halving event like the one masterluc expects is dubios in my opinion. Not impossible, but not the most likely scenario either.

Sorry but english is not my natural language, how should i call those emotions then? I was not saying this in a unrespectful way, and i don't want to offense anyone, of course not, i'm only calling names to emotions.

We are in a downtren, indicators says we are going down, this is not a normal correction don't you think?

(Sorry if I came across too aggressive)

It's clear we saw major correction, true. To be followed by another major correction (which is what lucif expects)? That would confirm we're probably going to see a longer lasting downtrend. But I'm not sure that'll happen... Come Monday, we're going down to 300? Are you sure about that? Because to me the market right now mainly looks the same way I feel: undecided. We're hovering precariously close to the 30d average (on all exchanges), the bottoms of the smaller waves since 576 are slowly rising, volume paints a pretty uncertain picture, order books across all 3 major exchanges are holding up quite nicely actually,... like I said, to me it looks like it could swing either way.

By the way, I wasn't against profit taking at all. I sold at 1000, and don't regret it for obvious reasons. the question is, have we seen the major part of this correction, or are we in for a long bear market.

I feel exactly the same way as you. Short term going down makes sense. But a prolonged bear market does not.

I think sometime traders feel like the market is driven by traders. Just like investors think the market is driven by purists that will follow bitcoin to the end. I think it falls somewhere in the middle. But I just do not see how, barring worldwide economic collapse, that the prospects for bitcoin are not very bullish over the next 12 months. We are just now seeing the budding of a true eco-system. Up until now, bitcoin WAS a truly speculative vehicle.  So this rally/crash/depression scenario that has played out twice before - I am a little skeptical of now.

That doesn't mean we couldn't go lower to the 400s and snap out of it fairly quickly though. Although that might violate a wave, I'm not sure. Wink

Gold and silver have been in a bear market since their respective bubbles popped in 2011. Why should it be different for bitcoin?

I think your question is in a nutshell exactly why I think EW theory is not the be all and end all.

If you can't see the difference between Bitcoin and Gold/Silver then I do not know where to start. I don't mean to condescend, because we probably just fundamentally disagree, but the basic fact that bitcoin is a disruptive technology and the other two are established precious metals is only the beginning of their fundamental differences.

If bitcoin is in bear market for the next 2 years, I believe it will die.  For bitcoin to succeed it must follow more closely the growth curve of a new rising technology, not a commodity.

I'm sorry but all I see is the classic "but this time it's different" bubble pattern.

If bitcoin goes into a 2 year bear market then "this time it's different."  That has never happened before. It was in a bear market for a 1 1/2 after the 2011 crash when bitcoin had zero eco-system, zero non-dark companies accepting it, zero endorsement from anyone in the VC or financial arenas, and the list goes on and on and on.  

With bitcoin's short history, every "bubble" HAS been different.  Where was the long term bear market after April? All the way until June? Not much of a bear market. Bitcoin went up 150% in 2012 and 7000% in 2013.  Where is the "this time its the same?"

Bitcoin hasnt behaved like gold ever. But this time its different?

I just disagree fundamentally. But the fun part is, we will get to find out soon enough.

Whilst I see the benefit in technical analysis, I don't think it's right to expect bitcoin to behave in the same way as gold. I think fundamentals make a big difference here; one is a new technology which more and more people are discovering everyday, the other is something that has been around for thousands of years. I would be very surprised if bitcoin goes into a prolonged bear market like gold, I think that will be almost impossible unless bitcoin dies.
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December 08, 2013, 09:11:19 PM
 #691

From my side, much respect to waveaddict and masterluc.

It's really amazing how big greed is on human nature, lots of people are expecting to see +1100 prices by next week after droping from 1200 to 550. Sorry guys but is not going to happend in a short time, not a single good inversor/trader is going to panic buy or going long right now until waters calms down, in a few weeks at least.

This is time to take profits, but much people are still in denial phase.

Yeah... This is kind of bullshit. I would suggest not to throw around big words like "denial" and "greed", because exactly the same arguments were thrown around each step along the way to 1200 from the April low. Sometimes they were appropriate, most of the time, they weren't, as evidenced by the 1200 ATH.

Note: I'm not saying I think we're back on track immediately to a new ATH. But we just saw a halving of the ATH, and some (moderate) signs for support above 600. So another halving event like the one masterluc expects is dubios in my opinion. Not impossible, but not the most likely scenario either.

Sorry but english is not my natural language, how should i call those emotions then? I was not saying this in a unrespectful way, and i don't want to offense anyone, of course not, i'm only calling names to emotions.

We are in a downtren, indicators says we are going down, this is not a normal correction don't you think?

(Sorry if I came across too aggressive)

It's clear we saw major correction, true. To be followed by another major correction (which is what lucif expects)? That would confirm we're probably going to see a longer lasting downtrend. But I'm not sure that'll happen... Come Monday, we're going down to 300? Are you sure about that? Because to me the market right now mainly looks the same way I feel: undecided. We're hovering precariously close to the 30d average (on all exchanges), the bottoms of the smaller waves since 576 are slowly rising, volume paints a pretty uncertain picture, order books across all 3 major exchanges are holding up quite nicely actually,... like I said, to me it looks like it could swing either way.

By the way, I wasn't against profit taking at all. I sold at 1000, and don't regret it for obvious reasons. the question is, have we seen the major part of this correction, or are we in for a long bear market.

I feel exactly the same way as you. Short term going down makes sense. But a prolonged bear market does not.

I think sometime traders feel like the market is driven by traders. Just like investors think the market is driven by purists that will follow bitcoin to the end. I think it falls somewhere in the middle. But I just do not see how, barring worldwide economic collapse, that the prospects for bitcoin are not very bullish over the next 12 months. We are just now seeing the budding of a true eco-system. Up until now, bitcoin WAS a truly speculative vehicle.  So this rally/crash/depression scenario that has played out twice before - I am a little skeptical of now.

That doesn't mean we couldn't go lower to the 400s and snap out of it fairly quickly though. Although that might violate a wave, I'm not sure. Wink

Gold and silver have been in a bear market since their respective bubbles popped in 2011. Why should it be different for bitcoin?

I think your question is in a nutshell exactly why I think EW theory is not the be all and end all.

If you can't see the difference between Bitcoin and Gold/Silver then I do not know where to start. I don't mean to condescend, because we probably just fundamentally disagree, but the basic fact that bitcoin is a disruptive technology and the other two are established precious metals is only the beginning of their fundamental differences.

If bitcoin is in bear market for the next 2 years, I believe it will die.  For bitcoin to succeed it must follow more closely the growth curve of a new rising technology, not a commodity.

I'm sorry but all I see is the classic "but this time it's different" bubble pattern.

If bitcoin goes into a 2 year bear market then "this time it's different."  That has never happened before. It was in a bear market for a 1 1/2 after the 2011 crash when bitcoin had zero eco-system, zero non-dark companies accepting it, zero endorsement from anyone in the VC or financial arenas, and the list goes on and on and on.  

With bitcoin's short history, every "bubble" HAS been different.  Where was the long term bear market after April? All the way until June? Not much of a bear market. Bitcoin went up 150% in 2012 and 7000% in 2013.  Where is the "this time its the same?"

Bitcoin hasnt behaved like gold ever. But this time its different?

I just disagree fundamentally. But the fun part is, we will get to find out soon enough.

I took gold and silver as examples but you could take also the nasdaq post internet bubble and so on. I don't know how long the bear market will be but we won't skyrocket to new ATH anytime soon after we find a bottom. Just my opinion.
Wekkel
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December 08, 2013, 10:39:06 PM
 #692

We are breaking upside from the triangle. Balls of steel and all in  Roll Eyes

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December 08, 2013, 10:53:54 PM
 #693

silly bears ... EW says  $400 :-) ... more than 260k btc dumped at gox, only 12k can be re-bought till $1200 ... who panic buy the first panic buy the best !!! :-)
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December 08, 2013, 11:08:28 PM
 #694

I also see a pennant forming right now, which from what I've learned of traditional TA should mean we go down more. But then again for all I know it could mean trend reversal in the world of bitcoin Cheesy


This bolded part was just a joke, but was it actually correct, or is this just a false breakout? Huh


Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
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December 08, 2013, 11:09:43 PM
 #695

Its just a bitcoin sale.
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December 08, 2013, 11:12:04 PM
 #696

I also see a pennant forming right now, which from what I've learned of traditional TA should mean we go down more. But then again for all I know it could mean trend reversal in the world of bitcoin Cheesy


This bolded part was just a joke, but was it actually correct, or is this just a false breakout? Huh

Well, Wekkel 2 posts back capitulated. I say we wait for some more time to see if its a false breakout or not. Masterluc posted saying its a bearish pennant.

Anyways, if the doom and gloom sceneraio plays out we would all be laughing that we sold Grin

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December 08, 2013, 11:40:18 PM
Last edit: December 09, 2013, 06:42:02 AM by samurai1200
 #697

edit: wrongo!

Price goes past $830-850 gox, look at triple bottom.
Price doesn't, look at triple top/wedge/weird head-n-shoulders.

The spirit of this (and the previous) thread used to be at longer term candles. But anyway...



so triangle + overbought RSI + low volume + china waking up paints a potential downtrend for next 24-48 hours for me. i'm sure i'll be eating my words later, because bitcoin.

Hodl for the longest tiem.

Use it or lose it: http://coinmap.org/
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December 08, 2013, 11:53:59 PM
 #698

Stop it with the triangle B.S.
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December 09, 2013, 12:00:27 AM
 #699

Stop it with the triangle B.S.

I find triangles useful in short term charts.
You may ignore me if you wish.

Hodl for the longest tiem.

Use it or lose it: http://coinmap.org/
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December 09, 2013, 12:01:40 AM
 #700

Stop it with the triangle B.S.

+1

You can see dozens of triangles/wedges in the last 6 weeks on many different scales, and in many different "trends" but there is no consistency on which way they will "break".

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