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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 940424 times)
Rampion
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December 09, 2013, 12:43:43 AM
 #701

waveaddict, thanks for observations. Actually main trading decisions were on patterns you pointed to.

No problem. I'll always defend a fellow talented TA & EWer Wink
It's truly amazing how often I have to explain basic market concepts and recall basic information in the speculation forum. Trying to educate people of the practicality of EW is the hardest because so many people misunderstand and misuse it. It's one of those ideas/theories that takes weeks to somewhat understand but years to fully appreciate and profit from. Most just quickly learn about it, without fully understanding it, and then fail at it and subsequently blame the idea instead of their own shortcomings. Anything that is worth doing/learning isn't easy! Moreover, it's insulting to have some of these same people argue with and insult you on something they haven't taken the time to understand, especially when you are trying to help them out.

If everybody understood and followed EW it just wouldn't work. I'm sorry to state the obvious Sad

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December 09, 2013, 12:53:43 AM
 #702

Love how when Lucif was predicting the bubble rise, nobody said a word. Now, when he was correct again at selling at the top while predicting a long bear market, everyone gets mad  Cheesy

keep up the good work and ignore the haters.
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December 09, 2013, 12:56:36 AM
 #703

From my side, much respect to waveaddict and masterluc.

It's really amazing how big greed is on human nature, lots of people are expecting to see +1100 prices by next week after droping from 1200 to 550. Sorry guys but is not going to happend in a short time, not a single good inversor/trader is going to panic buy or going long right now until waters calms down, in a few weeks at least.

This is time to take profits, but much people are still in denial phase.

Yeah... This is kind of bullshit. I would suggest not to throw around big words like "denial" and "greed", because exactly the same arguments were thrown around each step along the way to 1200 from the April low. Sometimes they were appropriate, most of the time, they weren't, as evidenced by the 1200 ATH.

Note: I'm not saying I think we're back on track immediately to a new ATH. But we just saw a halving of the ATH, and some (moderate) signs for support above 600. So another halving event like the one masterluc expects is dubios in my opinion. Not impossible, but not the most likely scenario either.

Sorry but english is not my natural language, how should i call those emotions then? I was not saying this in a unrespectful way, and i don't want to offense anyone, of course not, i'm only calling names to emotions.

We are in a downtren, indicators says we are going down, this is not a normal correction don't you think?

(Sorry if I came across too aggressive)

It's clear we saw major correction, true. To be followed by another major correction (which is what lucif expects)? That would confirm we're probably going to see a longer lasting downtrend. But I'm not sure that'll happen... Come Monday, we're going down to 300? Are you sure about that? Because to me the market right now mainly looks the same way I feel: undecided. We're hovering precariously close to the 30d average (on all exchanges), the bottoms of the smaller waves since 576 are slowly rising, volume paints a pretty uncertain picture, order books across all 3 major exchanges are holding up quite nicely actually,... like I said, to me it looks like it could swing either way.

By the way, I wasn't against profit taking at all. I sold at 1000, and don't regret it for obvious reasons. the question is, have we seen the major part of this correction, or are we in for a long bear market.

No problem  Smiley

I'm not saying we are goint to 300 by monday. Same as you i see the market undecided. So as i see things, under in doubt better be sitting on fiat than BTC until one clearly sees market's direction.

I don't mind if i 'loss' a few BTCs on the way and have to repurchase at $1500 at a 'loss', but if i purchase now and there is another dip i will regret later lossing thousans of euros, and euros are valuable to me, not the bitcoins, and i think most traders think the same way.

This is why i was talking about greed and denial, trend is always your friend, and trend now is down. If you are now all in BTC is a high risk you take, maybe you can be good or it can turn against you.

Better be safe and follow the trend, don't you think? Buying now is quite risky, i want to play safe leaving emotions alone.



For some being all fiat is much riskier than being all BTC. Difficult to argue when BTC appreciated 7,000% in the last twelve months - we can't say the same thing on fiat. The "trend" is pretty clear especially if you zoom out.

That said, we all need fiat for most of our needs, thus taking profits is sensible and it needs to be done following a rational plan based on personal circumstances and personal needs. I wouldn't advise being "full fiat" though - or wouldn't you hold at least 10% of your stash for the very long term, no matter what?Even luc wrote he is holding 20% of his coins. I'm not surprised, 100% in or out is pure gambling and poor risk management.


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December 09, 2013, 04:18:03 AM
 #704


Ozymandias
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December 09, 2013, 05:41:49 AM
 #705

Looks like bitcoin continues to not give a shit about pennants
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December 09, 2013, 06:27:49 AM
 #706

Looks like bitcoin continues to not give a shit about pennants

I'll be right there with you if BTC can do this with any volume...  that's what I am waiting to see.
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December 09, 2013, 06:29:47 AM
 #707

Looks like bitcoin continues to not give a shit about pennants

I'll be right there with you if BTC can do this with any volume...  that's what I am waiting to see.

What kind of volume do you want to see? Buying volume is almost always lower than selling volume.

Unless there is a buying volume timeframe you are using for comparison.
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December 09, 2013, 06:46:15 AM
 #708

Looks like i was wrong! That's why i don't act on my own TA Grin

Also looks like the mini rally was started by gox folks.

Hodl for the longest tiem.

Use it or lose it: http://coinmap.org/
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December 09, 2013, 06:54:54 AM
Last edit: December 09, 2013, 07:10:54 AM by Ozymandias
 #709

Looks like bitcoin continues to not give a shit about pennants

I'll be right there with you if BTC can do this with any volume...  that's what I am waiting to see.

What would you consider enough volume (with all seriousness)? Would the 1k wall that was eaten in a couple bites over the course of the last couple of minutes do it for you?

EDIT: And another 1k wall eaten in a single bite
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December 09, 2013, 07:05:23 AM
 #710

Trend is down. It is possible to see a form of a wedge. For me, these two things combined mean danger.



That's what I thought yesterday (about when you posted). I was afraid it would drop, because that triangle seemed to say so.

And yet I went long (on leverage, even) with a little play money. Closed position 20% in the green.

I'm not saying TA/EW/etc don't apply to Bitcoin. In fact I think they clearly do. But these methods don't claim accuracy to begin with. They are probabilistic in nature.

Both people who completely dismiss and people who stubbornly believe in the "correctness" (in the sense of predictive power) of any type of analytical method towards a market are being ignorant and simple-minded. I don't think anyone here falls into these "radical" categories, so I don't quite understand the anger I sense sometimes.

A finite number of observations of a market not playing out in some certain way cannot be proof that some probabilistic method doesn't have predictive power.

On a side-note: that issue of the "news following the waves" got me thinking. I think there's quite some truth to it.

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December 09, 2013, 07:14:54 AM
 #711

It is quite interesting how events materialize at expected timeframes, esp on longer timeframe cycles, kondratief cycle for ex.

Still unsure what to make of masterluc's predicted bear run for these next couple years.

Don't want to just be blinded, but I mean, at this point it just seems absurd.  Anything could happen obv, I'm certainly not betting on it.  Still interesting to read the varied perspectives.

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December 09, 2013, 07:17:59 AM
 #712


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December 09, 2013, 07:55:47 AM
 #713

It is quite interesting how events materialize at expected timeframes, esp on longer timeframe cycles, kondratief cycle for ex.

Still unsure what to make of masterluc's predicted bear run for these next couple years.

Don't want to just be blinded, but I mean, at this point it just seems absurd.  Anything could happen obv, I'm certainly not betting on it.  Still interesting to read the varied perspectives.


just a small detail for u http://www.calpers.ca.gov/ is the 5th /6th word wide pension fund and they got 1% (LOL) since all the funds like this do relay allot on compounding few more years like this and u have a good scenario for a long time bear market

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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December 09, 2013, 07:58:37 AM
 #714

It is quite interesting how events materialize at expected timeframes, esp on longer timeframe cycles, kondratief cycle for ex.

Still unsure what to make of masterluc's predicted bear run for these next couple years.

Don't want to just be blinded, but I mean, at this point it just seems absurd.  Anything could happen obv, I'm certainly not betting on it.  Still interesting to read the varied perspectives.


just a small detail for u http://www.calpers.ca.gov/ is the 5th /6th word wide pension fund and they got 1% (LOL) since all the funds like this do relay allot on compounding few more years like this and u have a good scenario for a long time bear market

might be misunderstanding you but I meant his prescribed bear run for bitcoin.

quite clear the markets are going to crash yes.
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December 09, 2013, 07:59:46 AM
 #715

Trend is down. It is possible to see a form of a wedge. For me, these two things combined mean danger.



That's what I thought yesterday (about when you posted). I was afraid it would drop, because that triangle seemed to say so.

And yet I went long

I went long as well, but got out way too early. Anyway, new cards have been dealt. Lets see how she goes attacking $1,000.

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December 09, 2013, 09:43:56 AM
Last edit: December 09, 2013, 09:57:33 AM by ft73
 #716

Trend is down. It is possible to see a form of a wedge. For me, these two things combined mean danger.



That's what I thought yesterday (about when you posted). I was afraid it would drop, because that triangle seemed to say so.

And yet I went long

I went long as well, but got out way too early. Anyway, new cards have been dealt. Lets see how she goes attacking $1,000.
i dont think well see $1000.... this has all been low volume, built on a few single players market buys. im almost done selling, hope im not wrong.  Smiley

We recovered both SMA100 and monthly VWAP.
In-between SMA100 and SMA200 now.
Lucif, will we break SMA200?

Does not look impossible.

EDIT: i mean hourly SMA
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December 09, 2013, 09:57:35 AM
 #717

Didn't Lucif mention a final wave 5 euphoric push to the moon before the bear market starts?
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December 09, 2013, 10:05:01 AM
 #718

Didn't Lucif mention a final wave 5 euphoric push to the moon before the bear market starts?
price movement in China appeared to have ended that possibility
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December 09, 2013, 10:28:10 AM
 #719

On a side-note: that issue of the "news following the waves" got me thinking. I think there's quite some truth to it.

I guess our favorite perma-bear Blitz made a very good example. Price action does indeed "unlock" events.

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December 09, 2013, 10:32:58 AM
 #720

From another thread:

Another insight:

Above a certain volume, TA is absolutely worthless. Large holders can and do draw whatever pattern they want on the charts, sometimes to push the masses into buying or selling.

Something to keep in mind.

I'd say that is the opposite. Below a certain volume TA loses effectiveness because large holders can move the market at their will. The bigger the overall volume is, the more difficult for a single entity to significantly move the market.

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