Analysis

[masterluc]

Shooting star with top right at serious resistance level tells about further price behavior quite alot.

[1713887779]

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[hhthinh]

take a look at this,i'm amazing at the line from 8000 CNY !!!!

http://s22.postimg.org/quw4zdvld/image.jpg

so at which price will it go down tommorrow?

[HarmonLi]

take a look at this,i'm amazing at the line from 8000 CNY !!!!

so at which price will it go down tommorrow?

Even if we don't break out upwards, do we really have to go down tomorrow? Why not wait for a couple of weeks? I don't think that tomorrow will be the day that decides about the way we'll be going.

[Miz4r]

take a look at this,i'm amazing at the line from 8000 CNY !!!!



so at which price will it go down tommorrow?

You should use log scale, this is linear scale.

[HarmonLi]

You should use log scale, this is linear scale.

Nah, well I think the biggest problem is with him using the candlesticks to draw the lines. Those are just outliers that don't tell us much in my opinion. Things will get interesting as soon we've crossed most people's resistance lines!

[hhthinh]

we wait then,market's full of surprised

[seleme]

I know longterm (4+ years) long position from current levels down to zero is safe enough.

I am usually pretty good at deciphering the Lucif code, but today I am at a loss.
 

What's not clear there? He said this price or any below it is good entry for long term (4+ years)

[JustAnotherSheep]

Looks like there is kinda h&s pattern since Jan 21 with a target around $170. Somebody illustrate pls

Like this?



or this?



(or are both wrong lol)

Either case would also mean overlap with Jan 15 234 top soon confirming the spike was C rather than III. Although I think 170 bottom is too high in that case, ~130 (or lower) seems more plausible from EW fib ratios.

[davidorentol]

Looks like there is kinda h&s pattern since Jan 21 with a target around $170. Somebody illustrate pls

confirmed?

[Wekkel]

Looks like there is kinda h&s pattern since Jan 21 with a target around $170. Somebody illustrate pls

confirmed?

We would want to see a bounce from 230 to 250 and head lower again.

[thefiniteidea]

You should use log scale, this is linear scale.

Nah, well I think the biggest problem is with him using the candlesticks to draw the lines. Those are just outliers that don't tell us much in my opinion. Things will get interesting as soon we've crossed most people's resistance lines!

They're not outliers.

[podyx]

I'd say this bearmarket is officialy worse then 2011 bearmarket when we go sub 130 with no signs of recovery or sub 100

[jaredboice]

Actually we won't be in uncharted waters unless we fall under $69.  The fall from $32 to about $2 was approximately a 94% drop in value.  To do the same since the 2013 November peak, we'd have to drop under $69.  If Bitcoin were to drop that low, I would imagine it would be bought back up with the same/or greater force and speed.  IMHO, prices that low are a fantasy with all the venture capital and infrastructure being built.  However, this IS bitcoin.  Anything can happen.  With that said, we are probably just as likely to hit $400 next week as we are to hit $69. 

[sethminer14]

Actually we won't be in uncharted waters unless we fall under $69.  The fall from $32 to about $2 was approximately a 94% drop in value.  To do the same since the 2013 November peak, we'd have to drop under $69.  If Bitcoin drops that low, I would imagine it would be bought back up with the same/or greater force and speed.

You're in that regard, I was thinking about the length of this bear market. In July 2011, bubble popped and then found its bottom in 6 months. Another 6 months later there was a decent recovery from the lows. Its been over a year and we still dont know if we have found the bottom.

No kidding. These are hard times. Nobody knows what will happen next.

[jaredboice]

Actually we won't be in uncharted waters unless we fall under $69.  The fall from $32 to about $2 was approximately a 94% drop in value.  To do the same since the 2013 November peak, we'd have to drop under $69.  If Bitcoin drops that low, I would imagine it would be bought back up with the same/or greater force and speed.

You're in that regard, I was thinking about the length of this bear market. In July 2011, bubble popped and then found its bottom in 6 months. Another 6 months later there was a decent recovery from the lows. Its been over a year and we still dont know if we have found the bottom.

It could also mean that the next bull market could be that much more spectacular with the spring coiling so tight for so long

[Okurkabinladin]

Could this be valid count? Too soon?



EDIT: Upper line is not random, its based on MasterLuc bearish trendline, that was unbroken since december 2013.

[Okurkabinladin]

Bulkowski on the 'shooting star':

Day traders that I know depend on the shooting star more often than I think they should, but my statistics are based on the daily charts, not intra day ones. I found that the shooting star candle acts as a bearish reversal 59% of the time. I consider that "near random" performance.

http://thepatternsite.com/ShootingStar.html

But that's his result for traditional markets. Possible that in BTC, shooting star is a better predictor.

This is not bearish reversal, though, as we didnt leave bear market in the first place. It could be merely continuation signal for existing trend.

[windjc]

So when do we acknowledge that this bear market is worse than 2011?

We're in uncharted waters.

 

I'd say this bearmarket is officialy worse then 2011 bearmarket when we go sub 130 with no signs of recovery or sub 100

So $1200 ---> to $100 or 91% drop is worse than $32 ---> 2 or a 94% drop?

Or $100 value is < $2 value?

Is this what you are saying?

[podyx]

So when do we acknowledge that this bear market is worse than 2011?

We're in uncharted waters.

 

I'd say this bearmarket is officialy worse then 2011 bearmarket when we go sub 130 with no signs of recovery or sub 100

So $1200 ---> to $100 or 91% drop is worse than $32 ---> 2 or a 94% drop?

Or $100 value is < $2 value?

Is this what you are saying?

The 2011 bear market only lasted like 6 months though, this has lasted 14-15 months, thats why.

[ssmc2]

Awaiting current thoughts from the Master...