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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 941360 times)
wpalczynski
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March 01, 2015, 03:15:57 PM
 #2561

Large volume dumps don't seem to be able to bring the price down very far anymore.  Do you guys think the trend has reversed for good and we are in a slow Bull market?

4th break attempt. Very promising, watching day close. Target 360 on success.

Hello masterluc
Is this target confirmed ? or we need more clear break out? thanks

Not me!
I think the best you can hope for, right now, is something similar to the November '14 or May '14 rally.
The linear trend line is broken, but imo, the log trend line is the more important one and I don't think it's that important either. There were 3 or 4 trend lines that have been broken over the last 14 months that only resulted in a suckers rally. Then you have the rising trend line since early 2011 that broke in January, which probably trumps any declining TL over the last year.

You don't feel that the large volume we had during the drop in January signified a capitulation type of event?

It certainly looked like that to me.

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March 01, 2015, 04:40:02 PM
 #2562

Large volume dumps don't seem to be able to bring the price down very far anymore.  Do you guys think the trend has reversed for good and we are in a slow Bull market?

4th break attempt. Very promising, watching day close. Target 360 on success.

Hello masterluc
Is this target confirmed ? or we need more clear break out? thanks

Not me!
I think the best you can hope for, right now, is something similar to the November '14 or May '14 rally.
The linear trend line is broken, but imo, the log trend line is the more important one and I don't think it's that important either. There were 3 or 4 trend lines that have been broken over the last 14 months that only resulted in a suckers rally. Then you have the rising trend line since early 2011 that broke in January, which probably trumps any declining TL over the last year.


So what we are looking for to declare the final low? Impulse from the lows instead of zig-zag?

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March 02, 2015, 05:04:34 AM
 #2563

Large volume dumps don't seem to be able to bring the price down very far anymore.  Do you guys think the trend has reversed for good and we are in a slow Bull market?

4th break attempt. Very promising, watching day close. Target 360 on success.

Hello masterluc
Is this target confirmed ? or we need more clear break out? thanks

Not me!
I think the best you can hope for, right now, is something similar to the November '14 or May '14 rally.
The linear trend line is broken, but imo, the log trend line is the more important one and I don't think it's that important either. There were 3 or 4 trend lines that have been broken over the last 14 months that only resulted in a suckers rally. Then you have the rising trend line since early 2011 that broke in January, which probably trumps any declining TL over the last year.


So what we are looking for to declare the final low? Impulse from the lows instead of zig-zag?

If masterluc's TA & track record means anything (which to me it certainly does), when he appears to be cautiously bullish (hopefully I'm not misreading 'promising' or '360') after being so bearish since the ATH, he's certainly got my attention; especially at such a pivotal moment/point on the charts...

Great point though RyNinDaCleM; I too have concerns about that overshoot that not only broke through the bottom of the wedge, but through that lower long-term trendline support. I guess the important thing to remember is, don't fight the trend, once price action shows us which direction it wants to push the market. #RideTheWave
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March 02, 2015, 07:37:54 AM
 #2564

I am cautiously bullish becase time projection shows 1-4 years of correction, like I said in ATH.

As minimum time projection (1 year) has been passed - price may start slowly recover.

Here is some analysis.

Bullish wedge has been obviously broken up - I say after three days confirmation.



Price is slowly going above upper daily BB. Since close above it will accelerate.



Daily macd made a bullish hook and also crossed neutral line up. The near target besides in around ~360 territory, in previous consolidation level. Daily SMA 200 also is somewhere there.



Weekly macd made a bullish cross, also breaking sma10 which has been resistance for 12 weeks.



We have a nice bullish setup. But how far it may blow - I'll can say watching reaction to 360 resistance.

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March 02, 2015, 07:47:56 AM
 #2565

Plus MACD resistance levels defined by prev highs and inverse H&S figure.
Plus rising channel.

Note, 1st wave up in new channel and resistance level for 2nd wave - shows two waves up with almost equal lenght. So warning! It may be 3-3-3 (abc) correction!



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March 02, 2015, 07:56:51 AM
 #2566

Plus MACD resistance levels defined by prev highs and inverse H&S figure.
Plus rising channel.

Note, 1st wave up in new channel and resistance level for 2nd wave - shows two waves up with almost equal lenght. So warning! It may be 3-3-3 (abc) correction!




I was under the working assumption that even if we go to 360, this is all a corrective. Do you think its possible the bottom is in?
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March 02, 2015, 07:58:11 AM
 #2567

For the perfect reversal price should reach area above weekly upper BB.

In this case it will almost completely damage bearish picture. But it will need 5+ months (20+ weeks) for cosolidation for next step forward. So stay tuned for a long way back.



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March 02, 2015, 08:31:49 AM
 #2568

A long way back is fine  by me. Thanks for excellent analysis, masterluc. I highly doubted your call of > 1 year bear trend back at the ATH. Now that it is confirmed, I am very impressed.



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March 02, 2015, 11:36:14 AM
 #2569

A long way back is fine  by me. Thanks for excellent analysis, masterluc. I highly doubted your call of > 1 year bear trend back at the ATH. Now that it is confirmed, I am very impressed.

Same here. I doubted your call yet it has turned out to be correct. I don't even daytrade yet I enjoy your analysis immensely. Respect!

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March 02, 2015, 12:27:27 PM
 #2570

@masterluc, I am curious why you use a linear chart to determine a break out of the falling wedge. Wouldn't a log chart be better? I have to admit I learned a lot from your analysis, like others I never could have imagined the bear market to last this long but you correctly predicted it. You deserve respect for that. It helped me understand market cycles better and see things in a larger perspective. Also I agree there is a chance that we could still be in an abc correction in which case we will still see lower lows after hitting 350-450 area. I am definitely hedging myself against that possibility but my main bet is on that we're seeing the start of a new bullish cycle right now. Cool

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March 02, 2015, 01:24:07 PM
 #2571

Log chart scale works buggy in SierraChart under Linux lol  Grin

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March 02, 2015, 02:05:03 PM
 #2572

One of the strangest moments I had on this forum was when luc posted something like "Here's my analysis. Maybe not the best one, artillery shelling not that far away messes up my concentration."  o_O

(EDIT) Also: your latest detailed posts are much appreciated. Interesting especially because of the widespread uncertainty if the bottom is in or not (which I guess you technically leave open as a question, depending on how we react to the expected 300s resistance - assuming we get there Tongue)

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masterluc (OP)
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March 02, 2015, 03:56:23 PM
 #2573

"Here's my analysis. Maybe not the best one, artillery shelling not that far away messes up my concentration."  o_O

Fuck the Ukraine nazi ::angry:: Around 20-30k dead of them for now. hehe

wpalczynski
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March 02, 2015, 04:08:25 PM
 #2574

Damn Americans stirring up shit all over the world.

"Here's my analysis. Maybe not the best one, artillery shelling not that far away messes up my concentration."  o_O

Fuck the Ukraine nazi ::angry:: Around 20-30k dead of them for now. hehe

masterluc (OP)
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March 02, 2015, 04:11:49 PM
 #2575

small family quarrel - nothing special  Cool

watching bitcoin price. it accelerates

Wandererfromthenorth
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March 02, 2015, 04:20:07 PM
Last edit: March 03, 2015, 12:36:59 AM by Wandererfromthenorth
 #2576

Personally I think that TA in linear scale should be avoided completely, but maybe it's just me.


Bid sum increased a little on chinese exchanges.  Ask sum decreased on all exchanges.
It it breaks the current resistance could go to around $330-$320 (where the log trend line from the ATH is currently at).




That doesn't change my long term outlook though, which is still bearish.
masterluc (OP)
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March 02, 2015, 04:26:48 PM
 #2577

Personally I think that TA in linear scale should be avoided completely, but maybe it's just me.


Bid sum increasing increased a little on chinese exchanges.  Ask sum decreased on all exchanges.
It it breaks the current resistance could go to around $330-$320 (where the log trend line from the ATH is currently at).




That doesn't change my long term outlook though, which is still bearish.

Okay, here is a downtrend channel in log scale

https://www.tradingview.com/x/pSX0nTFa/

You can see upper bound is at my 360 magick number.

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March 02, 2015, 04:41:05 PM
 #2578

Personally I think that TA in linear scale should be avoided completely, but maybe it's just me.


Bid sum increasing increased a little on chinese exchanges.  Ask sum decreased on all exchanges.
It it breaks the current resistance could go to around $330-$320 (where the log trend line from the ATH is currently at).




That doesn't change my long term outlook though, which is still bearish.

Okay, here is a downtrend channel in log scale

https://www.tradingview.com/x/pSX0nTFa/

You can see upper bound is at my 360 magick number.
The trend line I use starts from the ATH, so it touches the $450 pump:



Sitting at $330 now, $310 in a month.

But yes I guess yours is valid too.
masterluc (OP)
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March 02, 2015, 04:48:01 PM
 #2579

UPD sorry didn't read correctly your post

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March 09, 2015, 06:59:24 PM
 #2580

Looks like we're breaking out... over $300 is a big deal right ?

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