Analysis

[RyNinDaCleM]

Gold h&s

sorry, can someone explain the implications should it play out? Is head and shoulders a continuation pattern or bearish or what?

I sent this one for silver to my dad. Maybe it will explain better.


Those pink vertical lines are the same height but this is log scale. The point of neckline break is approximated so it may be sooner or later than I have drawn.

Edit:
The problem with H&S is they don't confirm until they complete. There could be a false break below the neckline and it could break back above on the retest.

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[oda.krell]

ITT people see what they want see...

I'm leaning towards 'more downside' as well (expecting to see sub-200 again, for example), but you'll note that luc didn't say "New lower low incoming", but rather "Further price collapse is possible, but not required".

Also, prices an order of magnitude lower than current price (i.e. ryn's myself chart) are pretty unlikely in my opinion, unless catastrophic protocol failure or "global crypto ban" happens. It took more than a year for price to deflate 75% (as measured by a 20 day average), and we're already showing signs of selling exhaustion, so I wouldn't bet much on pre-2013 prices.

Prediction in act.

On 208 hit next target 120.

a) 208 not hit (yet?). Keep the salivation reflex in control

b) Even then, still missing what luc's main point was. Relevant parts again:
1. Further price collapse is possible, but not required, and
2. Very fucking long "silence phase" (after final collapse)

[h3speros]

ITT people see what they want see...

I'm leaning towards 'more downside' as well (expecting to see sub-200 again, for example), but you'll note that luc didn't say "New lower low incoming", but rather "Further price collapse is possible, but not required".

Also, prices an order of magnitude lower than current price (i.e. ryn's myself chart) are pretty unlikely in my opinion, unless catastrophic protocol failure or "global crypto ban" happens. It took more than a year for price to deflate 75% (as measured by a 20 day average), and we're already showing signs of selling exhaustion, so I wouldn't bet much on pre-2013 prices.

Prediction in act.

On 208 hit next target 120.

a) 208 not hit (yet?). Keep the salivation reflex in control

b) Even then, still missing what luc's main point was. Relevant parts again:
1. Further price collapse is possible, but not required, and
2. Very fucking long "silence phase" (after final collapse)

My reply was for the bolded parts of your reply.

Imo you read luc posts with a bit too strong bull classes. Luc could comment, but my interpretation from example H&S pattern that luc has showed also, is that luc thinks that new LL <166 is likely.

We could see capitulation <100 then upper weekly BB then "very fucking long silent phase" at middle weekly BB.

[Bassica]

Luc, i'm wondering, since I've seen charts from gold as well, do you also analyze the major indices? DJX SPX?

If so, what are your thoughts on the current conditions?

[damiano]

ITT people see what they want see...

I'm leaning towards 'more downside' as well (expecting to see sub-200 again, for example), but you'll note that luc didn't say "New lower low incoming", but rather "Further price collapse is possible, but not required".

Also, prices an order of magnitude lower than current price (i.e. ryn's myself chart) are pretty unlikely in my opinion, unless catastrophic protocol failure or "global crypto ban" happens. It took more than a year for price to deflate 75% (as measured by a 20 day average), and we're already showing signs of selling exhaustion, so I wouldn't bet much on pre-2013 prices.

Prediction in act.

On 208 hit next target 120.

a) 208 not hit (yet?). Keep the salivation reflex in control

b) Even then, still missing what luc's main point was. Relevant parts again:
1. Further price collapse is possible, but not required, and
2. Very fucking long "silence phase" (after final collapse)

I'm not worried about the collapse, but the silence phase will be painful / depressing / boring.

[lunarboy]

I'm not worried about the collapse, but the silence phase will be painful / depressing / boring.

Too true. Alot of this is technical mumbo jumbo to me, but can someone explain why the Mid January capitulation to 150 followed by the last 3 months of silence is not exactly this, and that the bottom hasn't already been reached?

[Wandererfromthenorth]

I'm not worried about the collapse, but the silence phase will be painful / depressing / boring.

Too true. Alot of this is technical mumbo jumbo to me, but can someone explain why the Mid January capitulation to 150 followed by the last 3 months of silence is not exactly this, and that the bottom hasn't already been reached?

It's bid sum still being ridiculously low (and still decreasing, while at the end of the 2013 bear market bid sum went nuts, and price clearly followed for example), it's decreasing volume on all exchanges since January (again, after a real capitulation like in 2013 or 2011, the recovery should be panic buying on progressively increasing volume for the following months), the fact that the actual volume on the $150 bottom wasn't all that amazing (on chinese exchanges they are almost a standard volume bar), the fact that overall volume measured in USD is lower than in the $300-$400 area especially on chinese exchanges, EW analysis, value of daily mined coins, short term (and also long term) support trend lines broken, recent weak price action etc.

I'm not an expert on Elliott Wave Theory (I don't know anything about it actually), but all the EW chartists on this forum are bearish right now. They probably can give you a more specific answer regarding EW.


As a summary I would say:
-Bearish current price structure (and weak price action)
-Decreasing Bid Sum
-Decreasing volume (since the January bottom)

[Wandererfromthenorth]

Volume:

2011: Increasing Volume





2013: Increasing volume
2015: Decreasing volume





Bid Sum:


2013: Increasing Bid Sum




2015: Decreasing Bid Sum:







Unfortunately I can't find info on the increasing/decreasing Bid Sum in 2011 on gox  
The depth charts I found don't show data before 2012

[lunarboy]

In short, If it was the actual bottom EW predicts an subsequent increase in trading volume, which hasn't transpired.

Thanks.

[oda.krell]

Solid analysis of volume+bid/ask, Wandererfromthenorth.

My reply was for the bolded parts of your reply.

Imo you read luc posts with a bit too strong bull classes. Luc could comment, but my interpretation from example H&S pattern that luc has showed also, is that luc thinks that new LL <166 is likely.

We could see capitulation <100 then upper weekly BB then "very fucking long silent phase" at middle weekly BB.

Hehe, I'm hardly bullish at the moment. The point I was trying to make was simply that luc's "big picture" analysis was first and foremost about saying "prepare yourself for a long period of stagnation", and less about another crash (so: not ruling that one out, but not stressing it either) - but maybe I misunderstood luc. Anyway, I see it the way like damiano said above: the really painful part could be the stagnation to come, not further sharp price decline. /shrug

[hdbuck]

Solid analysis of volume+bid/ask, Wandererfromthenorth.

My reply was for the bolded parts of your reply.

Imo you read luc posts with a bit too strong bull classes. Luc could comment, but my interpretation from example H&S pattern that luc has showed also, is that luc thinks that new LL <166 is likely.

We could see capitulation <100 then upper weekly BB then "very fucking long silent phase" at middle weekly BB.

Hehe, I'm hardly bullish at the moment. The point I was trying to make was simply that luc's "big picture" analysis was first and foremost about saying "prepare yourself for a long period of stagnation", and less about another crash (so: not ruling that one out, but not stressing it either) - but maybe I misunderstood luc. Anyway, I see it the way like damiano said above: the really painful part could be the stagnation to come, not further sharp price decline. /shrug

medium term stagnation would mechanically imply more dumps tho. patience is not market compatible. especially this one.

[lebing]

Unfortunately those graphs are not really very useful anymore due to the increasing fragmentation of exchanges as well as the fact that bitstamp was hacked and is continually losing market share. The only way to draw a meaningful conclusion based on volume would be to aggregate the data from all available sources (and somehow be sure that the chinese data is accurate).

[afbitcoins]

Looks to me like a bullish divergence between price and momentum at the moment..

[masterluc]

I have to show you a very dangerous channel with bottom now around $30 and falling



The longer term log channel has higher bottom, now is around $110

[masterluc]

Looks to me like a bullish divergence between price and momentum at the moment..

did you discover price reactions in past on such divs? Need confirmation from another oscillator.

[masterluc]

I cancel my bids at 170-190 hehe   some shit probably comming

[hdbuck]

I cancel my bids at 170-190 hehe  some shit probably comming

yeay! so did I!  thx lucif!

[masterluc]

That level must show some resistance, but when I look at the empty space below in chanel - I shit my pants to leave bids there.

[Odalv]

I have to show you a very dangerous channel with bottom now around $30 and falling

Profesor bitcorn ?   :-)  $30 is simply impossible. It can go to zero (if protocol fails) but not to $30.

[masterluc]

I didn't say it goes to 30, just showed the chanel. Bottom could be anywhere from here down to 110 or even 30. And risk/reward ratio very bad on my 180 bids.