Analysis

[Chef Ramsay]

This scenario could be confirmed (or not) within the next week.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/AHFOHXcM-Updated-Longterm-Downtrend-Cycles/

His charts are one of the better ones on tv

This is fine by me as most are probably figuring something big is going to happen this or next week. Either let's get this thing moving up or let's go deep down south and reverse this bitch on high volume once and for all. Even tho I'm a mid and long term bull, I'd like to get my hands on some coins at flea market prices. Like, back the truck up kind of prices.

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[bassclef]

This scenario could be confirmed (or not) within the next week.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/AHFOHXcM-Updated-Longterm-Downtrend-Cycles/

Interesting the psychology... at market tops everyone is blinded by greed and optimism and bears are laughed at; exactly the opposite is beginning to occur. Almost all charts are bearish and bulls are regularly jeered. Fear drives both sides of the market: fear of missing out during tops and fear of loss at bottoms. The market actually makes its turn once the fearful have either finished buying or finished selling.

The way I see it, we cannot expect the bear market to go on indefinitely just as bull markets eventually top out. This is what I do not understand about the numerous EW charts on Tradingview... Is there really a strong enough argument for sub $200 if the downside is so easy to predict? I mean, a monkey could be trained to trade a bear market; predicting trend continuations at Fib levels is not impressive to a serious chartist. What happens if we hit $100? More EW continuation charts showing single digits? Easy money, right? No, it is never that easy. What I want to see are chartists who can predict tops and bottoms, not simply follow the trend until everyone piles in, gets caught up in their own psychological web and gets spectacularly squeezed.

[8up]

This scenario could be confirmed (or not) within the next week.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/AHFOHXcM-Updated-Longterm-Downtrend-Cycles/

Interesting the psychology... at market tops everyone is blinded by greed and optimism and bears are laughed at; exactly the opposite is beginning to occur. Almost all charts are bearish and bulls are regularly jeered. Fear drives both sides of the market: fear of missing out during tops and fear of loss at bottoms. The market actually makes its turn once the fearful have either finished buying or finished selling.

The way I see it, we cannot expect the bear market to go on indefinitely just as bull markets eventually top out. This is what I do not understand about the numerous EW charts on Tradingview... Is there really a strong enough argument for sub $200 if the downside is so easy to predict? I mean, a monkey could be trained to trade a bear market; predicting trend continuations at Fib levels is not impressive to a serious chartist. What happens if we hit $100? More EW continuation charts showing single digits? Easy money, right? No, it is never that easy. What I want to see are chartists who can predict tops and bottoms, not simply follow the trend until everyone piles in, gets caught up in their own psychological web and gets spectacularly squeezed.

Appreciate your clear perspective. Not only will you find mostly bearish charts on tradingview and in this forum. But even better, you read these analyses from the most creditable people in the community with a big fellowship. At one point in time (I think we might be there already) everybody finished positioning on the "right" side. It is then up to you, finding out that the boat you are sitting in, is already full. I am suspecting a long stabilization period as a next move unsatisfying bears as well as bulls.

[lebing]

I am suspecting a long stabilization periode as a next move unsatisfying bears as well as bulls.

Indeed. The herd is right until they aren't.

Stabilization for another few months/ maybe even years lets people know that this is the floor and the psychology around bitcoin being "expensive" will gradually change. When that does... we go up again.

[Stargazer]

I am suspecting a long stabilization periode as a next move unsatisfying bears as well as bulls.

Indeed. The herd is right until they aren't.

Stabilization for another few months/ maybe even years lets people know that this is the floor and the psychology around bitcoin being "expensive" will gradually change. When that does... we go up again.

There's too much manipulation in Bitcoin. Those people we saw on BTC-E 2 days back won't let it stabilize, unless by that you mean constant trading in the 200-300 range.

[Fatman3001]

I am suspecting a long stabilization periode as a next move unsatisfying bears as well as bulls.

Indeed. The herd is right until they aren't.

Stabilization for another few months/ maybe even years lets people know that this is the floor and the psychology around bitcoin being "expensive" will gradually change. When that does... we go up again.

There's too much manipulation in Bitcoin. Those people we saw on BTC-E 2 days back won't let it stabilize, unless by that you mean constant trading in the 200-300 range.

That's "Bitcoin Stable"

[lebing]

I am suspecting a long stabilization periode as a next move unsatisfying bears as well as bulls.

Indeed. The herd is right until they aren't.

Stabilization for another few months/ maybe even years lets people know that this is the floor and the psychology around bitcoin being "expensive" will gradually change. When that does... we go up again.

There's too much manipulation in Bitcoin. Those people we saw on BTC-E 2 days back won't let it stabilize, unless by that you mean constant trading in the 200-300 range.

That's "Bitcoin Stable"

^^

[mrhelpful]

I am suspecting a long stabilization periode as a next move unsatisfying bears as well as bulls.

Indeed. The herd is right until they aren't.

Stabilization for another few months/ maybe even years lets people know that this is the floor and the psychology around bitcoin being "expensive" will gradually change. When that does... we go up again.

There's too much manipulation in Bitcoin. Those people we saw on BTC-E 2 days back won't let it stabilize, unless by that you mean constant trading in the 200-300 range.

Yet, people still go out and buy the coin due to fear of missing out. 

Thats a constant cycle, since most believe the last 6 years since its launch will have a better year for each prior. But all the manipulation is out of anyones control, instead I`d worry about how to hedge my risk.

[lebing]

I am suspecting a long stabilization periode as a next move unsatisfying bears as well as bulls.

Indeed. The herd is right until they aren't.

Stabilization for another few months/ maybe even years lets people know that this is the floor and the psychology around bitcoin being "expensive" will gradually change. When that does... we go up again.

There's too much manipulation in Bitcoin. Those people we saw on BTC-E 2 days back won't let it stabilize, unless by that you mean constant trading in the 200-300 range.

Yet, people still go out and buy the coin due to fear of missing out. 

Thats a constant cycle, since most believe the last 6 years since its launch will have a better year for each prior. But all the manipulation is out of anyones control, instead I`d worry about how to hedge my risk.

hedging risk is so 2013.

If anything, 2015 is about getting risky.

[techgeek]

I am suspecting a long stabilization periode as a next move unsatisfying bears as well as bulls.

Indeed. The herd is right until they aren't.

Stabilization for another few months/ maybe even years lets people know that this is the floor and the psychology around bitcoin being "expensive" will gradually change. When that does... we go up again.

There's too much manipulation in Bitcoin. Those people we saw on BTC-E 2 days back won't let it stabilize, unless by that you mean constant trading in the 200-300 range.

When you talk about manipulation.

Where do you get your stats or insights instead of reddit. Cause sometimes its too late to take advantage. Is there a better source you guys use outside from reddit, cause coindesk is always debatable.

[masterluc]

I have to show you a very dangerous channel with bottom now around $30 and falling

This downtrend is going to break

[tokeweed]

Yup.  All bitcoins are back in my wallets now. 

[Morecoin Freeman]

Yea uptrend!

[gotmilk_]

If we break 240$ today with nice volume... 

[tokeweed]

Well...  At least we can relax a bit and get all our BTC away from the exchanges, that's for sure.

[Fabrizio89]

DXY looks corrective, will see how low it goes. Everything else going up, commodities reacting too. Stockpile btc while it's still lagging

[seleme]

DXY looks corrective, will see how low it goes. Everything else going up, commodities reacting too. Stockpile btc while it's still lagging

Yeah, gold reacted well, from 2105 to 1180

[realdos]

I have to show you a very dangerous channel with bottom now around $30 and falling

This downtrend is going to break

When and how this break could be confirmed as effective break? Re-test the downtrend line after breaking through it?

[HeliKopterBen]

When and how this break could be confirmed as effective break? Re-test the downtrend line after breaking through it?

I look for a completed weekly bar above the upper trendline (open, high, low, close) to confirm.  That pattern is more or less on a weekly timeframe but you could also use a 3-day I suppose.

[oblox]

Your trendline should really be drawn on a logarithmic scale... that, coupled with the swing high around $300 and 200-dma, a close above $305 on the daily should mark the end of the downtrend if there is follow-through.