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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 941360 times)
jillkelly
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June 13, 2015, 06:29:56 PM
 #2921

To me this feels pretty similar to the time when it was hovering between 4-5 after the 32 bubble. I think the waves are becoming longer in time frame as time goes on however which would account for the length of time we are seeing in this range vs 2012.

it does feel that way. long boring sideways. but enough of the $100 talk already. Cheesy
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June 13, 2015, 09:01:07 PM
 #2922

snip

Some smart trader said that you have to smell the technicals and taste the fundamentals. My sentiment a balance of the fundamental situation as I think the feeling is the same as 2012 because while the structure is not the same, the sentiment is very similar and the wave structure is close enough.

The sentiment in 2012 was a true split between whether it will succeed or not which caused a price gridlock for a few months.
The sentiment now is a similar in that there are quite some unknowns around which shape bitcoin will take in the future. Until those are ironed out (i.e. the cap drama is settled), we will continue to see a flatline in price. I am not ruling out further capitulation, but going by price action alone I doubt it. The weak hands left quite a few months ago already.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
realdos
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June 15, 2015, 02:04:09 AM
 #2923

Daily sma20 retest. Nothing more so far. According to weekly adx, trend only initializing.

And now sma20 has been broken and sma50 retested.  Huh
oda.krell
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June 15, 2015, 08:04:56 AM
 #2924

I can see this one taking us to 246/247 (+3 BB on ~20 day VWMA). Wouldn't be surprised though if it kind of fizzles out around there.

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June 15, 2015, 09:11:03 PM
Last edit: June 15, 2015, 09:22:42 PM by hdbuck
 #2925

snip

Some smart trader said that you have to smell the technicals and taste the fundamentals.


We are still in exciting times.. and Greeks could spark things off.
From a macro view, this situation is unseen/unreal.
The whole banking system is at a ATH of deceit and theft. And it's hitching.

So what if a greek bail in (vs bank runs vs end of cash) results in people seeking ways to just secure their wealth - not even making transactions.

What would the smart money (Grin not even the smart traders Grin) do when the dominos irremediably rolls over?

I know I would highly consider inscribing my wealth in the digital worldTM, for when things settles down.  Cool Cool Cool


ps: not saying me smart tho


I can see this one taking us to 246/247 (+3 BB on ~20 day VWMA). Wouldn't be surprised though if it kind of fizzles out around there.


fizzlinnnn ^^
phoenix1
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June 15, 2015, 10:23:27 PM
 #2926


We are still in exciting times.. and Greeks could spark things off.
From a macro view, this situation is unseen/unreal.
The whole banking system is at a ATH of deceit and theft. And it's hitching.

So what if a greek bail in (vs bank runs vs end of cash) results in people seeking ways to just secure their wealth - not even making transactions.

What would the smart money (Grin not even the smart traders Grin) do when the dominos irremediably rolls over?



From what I have been reading, Greeks have been buying luxury (ironically German) cars for months now in anticipation of capital controls - drive across border, sell for Euros as needed. I am not sure how much capital is left to flee from Greece TBH.

That said, the contagion potential is very real ... BUY AUDI AND BMW !!!

"Before you embark on a journey of revenge, dig two graves"  - Confucius (China 551BC-479 BC)
realdos
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June 16, 2015, 01:20:15 PM
 #2927

Daily sma20 retest. Nothing more so far. According to weekly adx, trend only initializing.

Now sma20 & sma50 has been broken through. Any interesting change ongoing?
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June 16, 2015, 02:01:29 PM
 #2928


We are still in exciting times.. and Greeks could spark things off.
From a macro view, this situation is unseen/unreal.
The whole banking system is at a ATH of deceit and theft. And it's hitching.

So what if a greek bail in (vs bank runs vs end of cash) results in people seeking ways to just secure their wealth - not even making transactions.

What would the smart money (Grin not even the smart traders Grin) do when the dominos irremediably rolls over?



From what I have been reading, Greeks have been buying luxury (ironically German) cars for months now in anticipation of capital controls - drive across border, sell for Euros as needed. I am not sure how much capital is left to flee from Greece TBH.

That said, the contagion potential is very real ... BUY AUDI AND BMW !!!

Are you aware how much a new car depreciates in the first month of ownership? If yes, then your post was sarcastic.
Greeks may turn to precious metals instead. Or gems, or whatever can be bought in Greece and sold for euros later.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
phoenix1
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June 16, 2015, 02:16:01 PM
 #2929


We are still in exciting times.. and Greeks could spark things off.
From a macro view, this situation is unseen/unreal.
The whole banking system is at a ATH of deceit and theft. And it's hitching.

So what if a greek bail in (vs bank runs vs end of cash) results in people seeking ways to just secure their wealth - not even making transactions.

What would the smart money (Grin not even the smart traders Grin) do when the dominos irremediably rolls over?



From what I have been reading, Greeks have been buying luxury (ironically German) cars for months now in anticipation of capital controls - drive across border, sell for Euros as needed. I am not sure how much capital is left to flee from Greece TBH.

That said, the contagion potential is very real ... BUY AUDI AND BMW !!!

Are you aware how much a new car depreciates in the first month of ownership? If yes, then your post was sarcastic.
Greeks may turn to precious metals instead. Or gems, or whatever can be bought in Greece and sold for euros later.

No, I am completely unaware how much cars depereciate  Roll Eyes

This has not been stopping Greeks from buying them, as hypothesised here, to evade upcoming capital controls. I am not talking about what they might do, I am talking about what they have already been doing for months.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11599513/The-real-sign-that-Greeces-financial-turmoil-is-getting-worse.html

As I said, I doubt there is very much capital left in Greece to actually flee. It's not current events are actually a surprise is it ... this has to be the slowest, most drawn out train-wreck in recent history.

"Before you embark on a journey of revenge, dig two graves"  - Confucius (China 551BC-479 BC)
masterluc (OP)
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June 16, 2015, 04:34:15 PM
 #2930

It is obvious that something happening, but log downtrend picture is confusing.

This is stamp



This is btcchina



And this is huobi



Somewhere price not reached upper line, somewhere it touches it, somewhere breaks.

masterluc (OP)
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June 16, 2015, 04:40:19 PM
 #2931

Price reminded to drop and tries to return to escape channel



Also it attempts to return to positive weekly bb range



Daily 200 sma is here



So here is another field full of resistances - fighting for breakout.

realdos
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June 16, 2015, 06:21:49 PM
 #2932

So here is another field full of resistances - fighting for breakout.

If the breakout of log downtrend is confirmed, could it become one possible scenario that the price reach the upper weekly BB and back to weekly sma20 for a long silence period?
lebing
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June 16, 2015, 09:20:50 PM
 #2933

So here is another field full of resistances - fighting for breakout.

If the breakout of log downtrend is confirmed, could it become one possible scenario that the price reach the upper weekly BB and back to weekly sma20 for a long silence period?

sure that is a scenario.

a likely one?

i doubt it. If we clear 300 for any meaningful period of time, we will never see these numbers again.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
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masterluc (OP)
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June 16, 2015, 09:39:30 PM
 #2934

So here is another field full of resistances - fighting for breakout.

If the breakout of log downtrend is confirmed, could it become one possible scenario that the price reach the upper weekly BB and back to weekly sma20 for a long silence period?

Weekly bands are tiny and flat enough for price to expand them (in either way). They are neither falling or rising - they are flat.

Falling upper band usually very strong resistance (or rising bottom band is support) for price and it bounces back to sma20. It was those days, but today's picture is different.

It doesn't mean band is not resistance at all. It is more ready to expand than earlier.

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June 16, 2015, 09:47:38 PM
 #2935

So here is another field full of resistances - fighting for breakout.

If the breakout of log downtrend is confirmed, could it become one possible scenario that the price reach the upper weekly BB and back to weekly sma20 for a long silence period?

Weekly bands are tiny and flat enough for price to expand them (in either way). They are neither falling or rising - they are flat.

Falling upper band usually very strong resistance (or rising bottom band is support) for price and it bounces back to sma20. It was those days, but today's picture is different.

It doesn't mean band is not resistance at all. It is more ready to expand than earlier.

The undertones here sound bullish.
Chef Ramsay
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June 16, 2015, 09:52:23 PM
 #2936

So here is another field full of resistances - fighting for breakout.

If the breakout of log downtrend is confirmed, could it become one possible scenario that the price reach the upper weekly BB and back to weekly sma20 for a long silence period?

Weekly bands are tiny and flat enough for price to expand them (in either way). They are neither falling or rising - they are flat.

Falling upper band usually very strong resistance (or rising bottom band is support) for price and it bounces back to sma20. It was those days, but today's picture is different.

It doesn't mean band is not resistance at all. It is more ready to expand than earlier.

The undertones here sound bullish.
Indeed, the rumblings are indicating something quite special is in the mix. I don't know about you guys but I sure am set up quite nicely atm. Good times ahead for a change.
txbtc
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June 16, 2015, 09:58:43 PM
 #2937

I've  been watching BTC during that time we have had longer periods of stability and so Value has increased 8% in 2 weeks, that's definitely something to be pleased about.
masterluc (OP)
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June 16, 2015, 10:01:43 PM
 #2938

The undertones here sound bullish.

Undertones are confusing. From one side I see great harm for further bearish development with this impulse. From other I don't believe it will just blow up daily 200 sma (and log downtrend somewhere there) from 1st strike, while sma is near.

Okurkabinladin
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June 16, 2015, 10:08:22 PM
 #2939

Then I guess the best bet right now is still sitting and waiting. With fiat ready once market makes move.
masterluc (OP)
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June 17, 2015, 12:20:39 PM
 #2940

ma200 is here, correction overdue. And if it is, there are new hidden divergences.



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