Analysis

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

in luc's option wave 2 is too short, bear market can not be wave 2, maybe wave 4, but imo ryn's option where 166 was wave A bottom and now we are having wave B is the most likely option, so 50-62% retrace from 1100 is the most likely target, or even just 38%, though it could make even smallish HH

http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-guide.htm

here is a chart from RyNinDaCleM

I haven't seen that chart from RyNinDaCleM until now, maybe he didn't show it in this forum so the permabulls don't call him names?
According to that chart, the bear market would last until July 2017, but the block reward halving is at the end of July 2016.
So the price could be around 250$ in July 2016 and only around 50$ one year after the block reward halving? I find this impossible,
unless there will be some major technical flaw with bitcoin, in which case double digits would be expensive, I hope such a disaster wont happen.

B is usually 50-100% of A so that can realize faster. This chart has been here before. I would not post it otherwise.

Yeah that ABC correction doesn't look possible given the block reward halving and increasing global financial instability. Is Wave 2 really so short as to make this ABC chart more plausible?

Wave 2? RyNinDaCleM wave count is that the 1163 high in November 2014 completed wave 5 of a five wave impulse and we are now in a three wave ABC corrective phase. Contrast his count to masterluc who believes we are still in wave 3 of the initial impulse.

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[RyNinDaCleM]

While I believe this count is very much possible, that particular chart isn't the best depiction of it. There are two different scenarios of how this count can unfold.
1) Since we have already broken the high off the 152 low, we could top very soon (or already have) rather than going up to the target shown. Then we would have a C that would complete around spring 2016, or 2-3 months before halving.

2) We fulfill a B wave to the target area and due to failure to make new ath's, the market panics and capitulates in a explosive and spectacular fashion making for a very fast and brutal C. The time of the over-all correction is more important than the time of C compared to A. 

This is a chart with time fibo and some embedded notes


And another showing the time for wave-(4)


The idea of the 1163 top being wave-(3) fits volume and duration profiles much better than a complete super cycle too. Wave-(5), although often longer than 3 in Bitcoin and other commodities, should have less volume. This was not the case in the move from 100-1200.

If the above chart wins out over the more bearish scenarios, then the true wave-II will be so long, some of us old timers may die before seeing the bottom. Yep,I know what I said.

[SmoothCurves]

While I believe this count is very much possible, that particular chart isn't the best depiction of it. There are two different scenarios of how this count can unfold.
1) Since we have already broken the high off the 152 low, we could top very soon (or already have) rather than going up to the target shown. Then we would have a C that would complete around spring 2016, or 2-3 months before halving.

2) We fulfill a B wave to the target area and due to failure to make new ath's, the market panics and capitulates in a explosive and spectacular fashion making for a very fast and brutal C. The time of the over-all correction is more important than the time of C compared to A. 

This is a chart with time fibo and some embedded notes


And another showing the time for wave-(4)


The idea of the 1163 top being wave-(3) fits volume and duration profiles much better than a complete super cycle too. Wave-(5), although often longer than 3 in Bitcoin and other commodities, should have less volume. This was not the case in the move from 100-1200.

If the above chart wins out over the more bearish scenarios, then the true wave-II will be so long, some of us old timers may die before seeing the bottom. Yep,I know what I said.

I've seen other counts where the Bubble of 2011 is counted as it's own mini supercycle with a new one starting after bitcoin bottomed out in $2 range. What do you make of that?

[RyNinDaCleM]

I've seen other counts where the Bubble of 2011 is counted as it's own mini supercycle with a new one starting after bitcoin bottomed out in $2 range. What do you make of that?

Then we are in exactly the same position. Where wave-[III] is not yet complete and we just finished wave-(4) of that [III] (the red count).

Edit:
And maybe I was a little overboard with that last comment in my other post. It'll be 10-15 years and maybe more depending on how long it takes to complete the V of (5) of [V]. We all may not be dead, but it'll be a long effing time.

[podyx]

I've seen other counts where the Bubble of 2011 is counted as it's own mini supercycle with a new one starting after bitcoin bottomed out in $2 range. What do you make of that?

Then we are in exactly the same position. Where wave-[III] is not yet complete and we just finished wave-(4) of that [III] (the red count).

Edit:
And maybe I was a little overboard with that last comment in my other post. It'll be 10-15 years and maybe more depending on how long it takes to complete the V of (5) of [V]. We all may not be dead, but it'll be a long effing time.

wait, are you saying we'll be in a 10-15 year long bearmarket?

[Afrikoin]

in luc's option wave 2 is too short, bear market can not be wave 2, maybe wave 4, but imo ryn's option where 166 was wave A bottom and now we are having wave B is the most likely option, so 50-62% retrace from 1100 is the most likely target, or even just 38%, though it could make even smallish HH

http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-guide.htm

here is a chart from RyNinDaCleM

 I hope such a disaster wont happen.

B is usually 50-100% of A so that can realize faster. This chart has been here before. I would not post it otherwise.

+ 1.
 Last year, we went up to $ 475 in october and back down to $ 166 in January. Perhaps it is possible we could do a B, head back down and still make it up to current levels by July (halving next year)?

I think we should try rule out as much as possible, and whatever we have left might be closer to the truth.

[molecular]

Without this thread I think I'd already was dead, because last bubble informational and emotional pressure put me in deep hypertensive crisis despite I earned a lot of money.

I'm happy to hear this thread has helped you. Keep it up!

I don't worship or blindly follow you, but I value the information from you very highly. Keep it coming, please.

[RyNinDaCleM]

I've seen other counts where the Bubble of 2011 is counted as it's own mini supercycle with a new one starting after bitcoin bottomed out in $2 range. What do you make of that?

Then we are in exactly the same position. Where wave-[III] is not yet complete and we just finished wave-(4) of that [III] (the red count).

Edit:
And maybe I was a little overboard with that last comment in my other post. It'll be 10-15 years and maybe more depending on how long it takes to complete the V of (5) of [V]. We all may not be dead, but it'll be a long effing time.

wait, are you saying we'll be in a 10-15 year long bearmarket?

Not at all. I'm saying that if this is (5) of [III], once we get finished with this and the [IV] and the [V] and the [[II]] that follows that, combined, will be 10-15 years and possibly longer depending on how long everything excluding the [[II]] takes.


This was all timed out approximately using typical lengths for the waves in question.

Edit;
As tzupy has said on numerous occasions, everything is beginning to "slow down". Not really on lower time frames, but the larger count is beginning to have more and more time between reversals.

Edit #2;
Sorry to luc for briefly commandeering your discussion. I am done for now. 

[brg444]

I've seen other counts where the Bubble of 2011 is counted as it's own mini supercycle with a new one starting after bitcoin bottomed out in $2 range. What do you make of that?

Then we are in exactly the same position. Where wave-[III] is not yet complete and we just finished wave-(4) of that [III] (the red count).

Edit:
And maybe I was a little overboard with that last comment in my other post. It'll be 10-15 years and maybe more depending on how long it takes to complete the V of (5) of [V]. We all may not be dead, but it'll be a long effing time.

wait, are you saying we'll be in a 10-15 year long bearmarket?

Not at all. I'm saying that if this is (5) of [III], once we get finished with this and the [IV] and the [V] and the [[II]] that follows that, combined, will be 10-15 years and possibly longer depending on how long everything excluding the [[II]] takes.

This was all timed out approximately using typical lengths for the waves in question.

Edit;
As tzupy has said on numerous occasions, everything is beginning to "slow down". Not really on lower time frames, but the larger count is beginning to have more and more time between reversals.

....so 800$ or less in 2020.... yea ummmm no.

[Miz4r]

I think I prefer masterluc's count over that one. $120,000 here we come!

[ssmc2]

I've seen other counts where the Bubble of 2011 is counted as it's own mini supercycle with a new one starting after bitcoin bottomed out in $2 range. What do you make of that?

Then we are in exactly the same position. Where wave-[III] is not yet complete and we just finished wave-(4) of that [III] (the red count).

Edit:
And maybe I was a little overboard with that last comment in my other post. It'll be 10-15 years and maybe more depending on how long it takes to complete the V of (5) of [V]. We all may not be dead, but it'll be a long effing time.

wait, are you saying we'll be in a 10-15 year long bearmarket?

Not at all. I'm saying that if this is (5) of [III], once we get finished with this and the [IV] and the [V] and the [[II]] that follows that, combined, will be 10-15 years and possibly longer depending on how long everything excluding the [[II]] takes.


This was all timed out approximately using typical lengths for the waves in question.

Edit;
As tzupy has said on numerous occasions, everything is beginning to "slow down". Not really on lower time frames, but the larger count is beginning to have more and more time between reversals.

I am not anywhere close to your level of understanding of EW but do you think it's really likely Bitcoin could survive going to 20k in the next 10 years then dropping down to double digits over the following 10 year period? It just doesn't seem to match up with adoption cycles and exponential growth trends.

[ssmc2]

I think I prefer masterluc's count over that one. $120,000 here we come!

Lol +1

[BTCtrader71]

I've seen other counts where the Bubble of 2011 is counted as it's own mini supercycle with a new one starting after bitcoin bottomed out in $2 range. What do you make of that?

Then we are in exactly the same position. Where wave-[III] is not yet complete and we just finished wave-(4) of that [III] (the red count).

Edit:
And maybe I was a little overboard with that last comment in my other post. It'll be 10-15 years and maybe more depending on how long it takes to complete the V of (5) of [V]. We all may not be dead, but it'll be a long effing time.

wait, are you saying we'll be in a 10-15 year long bearmarket?

Not at all. I'm saying that if this is (5) of [III], once we get finished with this and the [IV] and the [V] and the [[II]] that follows that, combined, will be 10-15 years and possibly longer depending on how long everything excluding the [[II]] takes.


This was all timed out approximately using typical lengths for the waves in question.

Edit;
As tzupy has said on numerous occasions, everything is beginning to "slow down". Not really on lower time frames, but the larger count is beginning to have more and more time between reversals.

I am not anywhere close to your level of understanding of EW but do you think it's really likely Bitcoin could survive going to 20k in the next 10 years then dropping down to double digits over the following 10 year period? It just doesn't seem to match up with adoption cycles and exponential growth trends.

Maybe if the world shifts gradually to another coin(s). Bitcoin wouldn't have to crash completely because I think it is plausible (and even desirable) to have a handful of dominant blockchains and not just one superdominant one.

[RyNinDaCleM]

I've seen other counts where the Bubble of 2011 is counted as it's own mini supercycle with a new one starting after bitcoin bottomed out in $2 range. What do you make of that?

Then we are in exactly the same position. Where wave-[III] is not yet complete and we just finished wave-(4) of that [III] (the red count).

Edit:
And maybe I was a little overboard with that last comment in my other post. It'll be 10-15 years and maybe more depending on how long it takes to complete the V of (5) of [V]. We all may not be dead, but it'll be a long effing time.

wait, are you saying we'll be in a 10-15 year long bearmarket?

Not at all. I'm saying that if this is (5) of [III], once we get finished with this and the [IV] and the [V] and the [[II]] that follows that, combined, will be 10-15 years and possibly longer depending on how long everything excluding the [[II]] takes.

This was all timed out approximately using typical lengths for the waves in question.

Edit;
As tzupy has said on numerous occasions, everything is beginning to "slow down". Not really on lower time frames, but the larger count is beginning to have more and more time between reversals.

....so 800$ or less in 2020.... yea ummmm no.

Just like <$enter the number of the week over the last 18 months wasn't possible, right? Ok...

I know this won't be approved by many here so no worries. Also, I didn't use Fibonacci to find the price levels. Those are only guesstimates and since you can expect the correction of a complete impulse to hit the level of the 4th of one smaller degree, it should be around 152-1163. This assuming the bear market is over.

I am not anywhere close to your level of understanding of EW but do you think it's really likely Bitcoin could survive going to 20k in the next 10 years then dropping down to double digits over the following 10 year period? It just doesn't seem to match up with adoption cycles and exponential growth trends.

Not to double digits, but triple is a possibility, yes.

I think I prefer masterluc's count over that one. $120,000 here we come!

Miz4r, with all due respect, I like you now because I feel this bear market really humbled you. But you can prefer what ever you want, the market doesn't care what any of us want.


As I said in the "questionable" post... That was all approximated using currently available data, so it can change a bit up or down, left or right. It all depends on how things play out.

[brg444]

I've seen other counts where the Bubble of 2011 is counted as it's own mini supercycle with a new one starting after bitcoin bottomed out in $2 range. What do you make of that?

Then we are in exactly the same position. Where wave-[III] is not yet complete and we just finished wave-(4) of that [III] (the red count).

Edit:
And maybe I was a little overboard with that last comment in my other post. It'll be 10-15 years and maybe more depending on how long it takes to complete the V of (5) of [V]. We all may not be dead, but it'll be a long effing time.

wait, are you saying we'll be in a 10-15 year long bearmarket?

Not at all. I'm saying that if this is (5) of [III], once we get finished with this and the [IV] and the [V] and the [[II]] that follows that, combined, will be 10-15 years and possibly longer depending on how long everything excluding the [[II]] takes.


This was all timed out approximately using typical lengths for the waves in question.

Edit;
As tzupy has said on numerous occasions, everything is beginning to "slow down". Not really on lower time frames, but the larger count is beginning to have more and more time between reversals.

I am not anywhere close to your level of understanding of EW but do you think it's really likely Bitcoin could survive going to 20k in the next 10 years then dropping down to double digits over the following 10 year period? It just doesn't seem to match up with adoption cycles and exponential growth trends.

Maybe if the world shifts gradually to another coin(s). Bitcoin wouldn't have to crash completely because I think it is plausible (and even desirable) to have a handful of dominant blockchains and not just one superdominant one.

Absolutely not desirable and increasingly improbable. But this is a discussion for another thread

[brg444]

I've seen other counts where the Bubble of 2011 is counted as it's own mini supercycle with a new one starting after bitcoin bottomed out in $2 range. What do you make of that?

Then we are in exactly the same position. Where wave-[III] is not yet complete and we just finished wave-(4) of that [III] (the red count).

Edit:
And maybe I was a little overboard with that last comment in my other post. It'll be 10-15 years and maybe more depending on how long it takes to complete the V of (5) of [V]. We all may not be dead, but it'll be a long effing time.

wait, are you saying we'll be in a 10-15 year long bearmarket?

Not at all. I'm saying that if this is (5) of [III], once we get finished with this and the [IV] and the [V] and the [[II]] that follows that, combined, will be 10-15 years and possibly longer depending on how long everything excluding the [[II]] takes.

This was all timed out approximately using typical lengths for the waves in question.

Edit;
As tzupy has said on numerous occasions, everything is beginning to "slow down". Not really on lower time frames, but the larger count is beginning to have more and more time between reversals.

....so 800$ or less in 2020.... yea ummmm no.

Just like <$enter the number of the week over the last 18 months wasn't possible, right? Ok...

I know this won't be approved by many here so no worries. Also, I didn't use Fibonacci to find the price levels. Those are only guesstimates and since you can expect the correction of a complete impulse to hit the level of the 4th of one smaller degree, it should be around 152-1163. This assuming the bear market is over.

I am not anywhere close to your level of understanding of EW but do you think it's really likely Bitcoin could survive going to 20k in the next 10 years then dropping down to double digits over the following 10 year period? It just doesn't seem to match up with adoption cycles and exponential growth trends.

Not to double digits, but triple is a possibility, yes.

I think I prefer masterluc's count over that one. $120,000 here we come!

Miz4r, with all due respect, I like you now because I feel this bear market really humbled you. But you can prefer what ever you want, the market doesn't care what any of us want.


As I said in the "questionable" post... That was all approximated using currently available data, so it can change a bit up or down, left or right. It all depends on how things play out.

IMO it's more likely the price is 0 or low double digit (meaning failure or quasi-total collapse) by that time than triple digits.

These are scenarios where TA loses me, when, as sscm2 mentionned, it seemingly totally loses touch with reality.

[RyNinDaCleM]

I've seen other counts where the Bubble of 2011 is counted as it's own mini supercycle with a new one starting after bitcoin bottomed out in $2 range. What do you make of that?

Then we are in exactly the same position. Where wave-[III] is not yet complete and we just finished wave-(4) of that [III] (the red count).

Edit:
And maybe I was a little overboard with that last comment in my other post. It'll be 10-15 years and maybe more depending on how long it takes to complete the V of (5) of [V]. We all may not be dead, but it'll be a long effing time.

wait, are you saying we'll be in a 10-15 year long bearmarket?

Not at all. I'm saying that if this is (5) of [III], once we get finished with this and the [IV] and the [V] and the [[II]] that follows that, combined, will be 10-15 years and possibly longer depending on how long everything excluding the [[II]] takes.

This was all timed out approximately using typical lengths for the waves in question.

Edit;
As tzupy has said on numerous occasions, everything is beginning to "slow down". Not really on lower time frames, but the larger count is beginning to have more and more time between reversals.

....so 800$ or less in 2020.... yea ummmm no.

Just like <$enter the number of the week over the last 18 months wasn't possible, right? Ok...

I know this won't be approved by many here so no worries. Also, I didn't use Fibonacci to find the price levels. Those are only guesstimates and since you can expect the correction of a complete impulse to hit the level of the 4th of one smaller degree, it should be around 152-1163. This assuming the bear market is over.

I am not anywhere close to your level of understanding of EW but do you think it's really likely Bitcoin could survive going to 20k in the next 10 years then dropping down to double digits over the following 10 year period? It just doesn't seem to match up with adoption cycles and exponential growth trends.

Not to double digits, but triple is a possibility, yes.

I think I prefer masterluc's count over that one. $120,000 here we come!

Miz4r, with all due respect, I like you now because I feel this bear market really humbled you. But you can prefer what ever you want, the market doesn't care what any of us want.


As I said in the "questionable" post... That was all approximated using currently available data, so it can change a bit up or down, left or right. It all depends on how things play out.

IMO it's more likely the price is 0 or low double digit (meaning failure or quasi-total collapse) by that time than triple digits.

These are scenarios where TA loses me, when, as sscm2 mentionned, it seemingly totally loses touch with reality.

When has a financial market moving in an S-curve ever been reality? No matter how the technology progresses, there will be ups and downs in this market. It was unfathomable by most that we would ever see $200 Bitcoins again. Now we are struggling to capture $300 and hold it. The fact is, there isn't always money coming in to fuel rally after rally. There will be lulls in adoption and during those times, it will likely have more selling pressure than buying pressure which causes lower prices. People also have different ideas of what they want to sell at. Some big and some small will sell at every stop along the way.

[Miz4r]

I think I prefer masterluc's count over that one. $120,000 here we come!

Miz4r, with all due respect, I like you now because I feel this bear market really humbled you. But you can prefer what ever you want, the market doesn't care what any of us want.


As I said in the "questionable" post... That was all approximated using currently available data, so it can change a bit up or down, left or right. It all depends on how things play out.

Hey I was just joking a bit, I know the market does whatever it wants to. By the way was I ever not a humble person in here? I know I was still quite inexperienced at trading back in April 2013 and have made some stupid mistakes and said silly things at times perhaps, but the crash from $266 to $50 in 2013 already humbled me quite a bit I think. I was never a permabull, although I know I've been too bullish sometimes. The bear market since December 2013 actually taught me how to become profitable at trading in downtrends as well as uptrends, it was and still is a good learning experience for me. But inside I will always be more of a bull because I want Bitcoin to do well and not hurt and scare away new people joining the scene who buy their very first coins. This explains my bias. I don't let that bias get in the way of my personal trading though, I have to stay more objective there or it's going to hurt my own wallet.

[brg444]

When has a financial market moving in an S-curve ever been reality? No matter how the technology progresses, there will be ups and downs in this market. It was unfathomable by most that we would ever see $200 Bitcoins again. Now we are struggling to capture $300 and hold it. The fact is, there isn't always money coming in to fuel rally after rally. There will be lulls in adoption and during those times, it will likely have more selling pressure than buying pressure which causes lower prices. People also have different ideas of what they want to sell at. Some big and some small will sell at every stop along the way.

Look I'm not putting in doubt your TA or market analysis but for Bitcoin to stall at a 3-6 B$ market cap 5 years from now spells utter failure IMO.

You are seemingly looking at this only from a speculative POV. This is not a regular financial market driven only by speculation. We haven't seen s-curve in a market before because there was never one coupled to an underlying technology generating user adoption strictly from its innovative use cases. I will not argue that speculation is not what has driven this market so far since I do believe this to be true but this will not always be the case. Technological use-cases, once the infrastructure is installed, as well as socio-economic and geopolitical events will eventually be a driving force in this market.

If we believe that new users are entering the Bitcoin ecosystem everyday strictly off the merits of the technology then there is no sense in believing that the underlying currency market cap would stall or fall to that level 5 years from now (barring any considerable technical issues)

[TaurusBit]

Look I'm not putting in doubt your TA or market analysis but for Bitcoin to stall at a 3-6 B$ market cap 5 years from now spells utter failure IMO.

You are seemingly looking at this only from a speculative POV. This is not a regular financial market driven only by speculation. We haven't seen s-curve in a market before because there was never one coupled to an underlying technology generating user adoption strictly from its innovative use cases. I will not argue that speculation is not what has driven this market so far since I do believe this to be true but this will not always be the case. Technological use-cases, once the infrastructure is installed, as well as socio-economic and geopolitical events will eventually be a driving force in this market.

Agreed.