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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 919465 times)
Miz4r
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July 15, 2015, 08:08:23 PM
 #3241

I think I prefer masterluc's count over that one. $120,000 here we come! Cheesy

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July 15, 2015, 08:10:27 PM
 #3242



I've seen other counts where the Bubble of 2011 is counted as it's own mini supercycle with a new one starting after bitcoin bottomed out in $2 range. What do you make of that?

Then we are in exactly the same position. Where wave-[III] is not yet complete and we just finished wave-(4) of that [III] (the red count).

Edit:
And maybe I was a little overboard with that last comment in my other post. It'll be 10-15 years and maybe more depending on how long it takes to complete the V of (5) of [V]. We all may not be dead, but it'll be a long effing time.

wait, are you saying we'll be in a 10-15 year long bearmarket?

Not at all. I'm saying that if this is (5) of [III], once we get finished with this and the [IV] and the [V] and the [[II]] that follows that, combined, will be 10-15 years and possibly longer depending on how long everything excluding the [[II]] takes.


This was all timed out approximately using typical lengths for the waves in question.

Edit;
As tzupy has said on numerous occasions, everything is beginning to "slow down". Not really on lower time frames, but the larger count is beginning to have more and more time between reversals.


I am not anywhere close to your level of understanding of EW but do you think it's really likely Bitcoin could survive going to 20k in the next 10 years then dropping down to double digits over the following 10 year period? It just doesn't seem to match up with adoption cycles and exponential growth trends.
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July 15, 2015, 08:11:10 PM
 #3243

I think I prefer masterluc's count over that one. $120,000 here we come! Cheesy

Lol +1
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July 15, 2015, 08:13:35 PM
 #3244



I've seen other counts where the Bubble of 2011 is counted as it's own mini supercycle with a new one starting after bitcoin bottomed out in $2 range. What do you make of that?

Then we are in exactly the same position. Where wave-[III] is not yet complete and we just finished wave-(4) of that [III] (the red count).

Edit:
And maybe I was a little overboard with that last comment in my other post. It'll be 10-15 years and maybe more depending on how long it takes to complete the V of (5) of [V]. We all may not be dead, but it'll be a long effing time.

wait, are you saying we'll be in a 10-15 year long bearmarket?

Not at all. I'm saying that if this is (5) of [III], once we get finished with this and the [IV] and the [V] and the [[II]] that follows that, combined, will be 10-15 years and possibly longer depending on how long everything excluding the [[II]] takes.


This was all timed out approximately using typical lengths for the waves in question.

Edit;
As tzupy has said on numerous occasions, everything is beginning to "slow down". Not really on lower time frames, but the larger count is beginning to have more and more time between reversals.


I am not anywhere close to your level of understanding of EW but do you think it's really likely Bitcoin could survive going to 20k in the next 10 years then dropping down to double digits over the following 10 year period? It just doesn't seem to match up with adoption cycles and exponential growth trends.

Maybe if the world shifts gradually to another coin(s). Bitcoin wouldn't have to crash completely because I think it is plausible (and even desirable) to have a handful of dominant blockchains and not just one superdominant one.

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RyNinDaCleM
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July 15, 2015, 08:20:28 PM
 #3245



I've seen other counts where the Bubble of 2011 is counted as it's own mini supercycle with a new one starting after bitcoin bottomed out in $2 range. What do you make of that?

Then we are in exactly the same position. Where wave-[III] is not yet complete and we just finished wave-(4) of that [III] (the red count).

Edit:
And maybe I was a little overboard with that last comment in my other post. It'll be 10-15 years and maybe more depending on how long it takes to complete the V of (5) of [V]. We all may not be dead, but it'll be a long effing time.

wait, are you saying we'll be in a 10-15 year long bearmarket?

Not at all. I'm saying that if this is (5) of [III], once we get finished with this and the [IV] and the [V] and the [[II]] that follows that, combined, will be 10-15 years and possibly longer depending on how long everything excluding the [[II]] takes.

This was all timed out approximately using typical lengths for the waves in question.

Edit;
As tzupy has said on numerous occasions, everything is beginning to "slow down". Not really on lower time frames, but the larger count is beginning to have more and more time between reversals.

....so 800$ or less in 2020.... yea ummmm no.

Just like <$enter the number of the week over the last 18 months wasn't possible, right? Ok... Smiley

I know this won't be approved by many here so no worries. Also, I didn't use Fibonacci to find the price levels. Those are only guesstimates and since you can expect the correction of a complete impulse to hit the level of the 4th of one smaller degree, it should be around 152-1163. This assuming the bear market is over.


I am not anywhere close to your level of understanding of EW but do you think it's really likely Bitcoin could survive going to 20k in the next 10 years then dropping down to double digits over the following 10 year period? It just doesn't seem to match up with adoption cycles and exponential growth trends.

Not to double digits, but triple is a possibility, yes.

I think I prefer masterluc's count over that one. $120,000 here we come! Cheesy

Miz4r, with all due respect, I like you now because I feel this bear market really humbled you. But you can prefer what ever you want, the market doesn't care what any of us want.


As I said in the "questionable" post... That was all approximated using currently available data, so it can change a bit up or down, left or right. It all depends on how things play out.

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July 15, 2015, 08:21:09 PM
 #3246



I've seen other counts where the Bubble of 2011 is counted as it's own mini supercycle with a new one starting after bitcoin bottomed out in $2 range. What do you make of that?

Then we are in exactly the same position. Where wave-[III] is not yet complete and we just finished wave-(4) of that [III] (the red count).

Edit:
And maybe I was a little overboard with that last comment in my other post. It'll be 10-15 years and maybe more depending on how long it takes to complete the V of (5) of [V]. We all may not be dead, but it'll be a long effing time.

wait, are you saying we'll be in a 10-15 year long bearmarket?

Not at all. I'm saying that if this is (5) of [III], once we get finished with this and the [IV] and the [V] and the [[II]] that follows that, combined, will be 10-15 years and possibly longer depending on how long everything excluding the [[II]] takes.


This was all timed out approximately using typical lengths for the waves in question.

Edit;
As tzupy has said on numerous occasions, everything is beginning to "slow down". Not really on lower time frames, but the larger count is beginning to have more and more time between reversals.


I am not anywhere close to your level of understanding of EW but do you think it's really likely Bitcoin could survive going to 20k in the next 10 years then dropping down to double digits over the following 10 year period? It just doesn't seem to match up with adoption cycles and exponential growth trends.

Maybe if the world shifts gradually to another coin(s). Bitcoin wouldn't have to crash completely because I think it is plausible (and even desirable) to have a handful of dominant blockchains and not just one superdominant one.

Absolutely not desirable and increasingly improbable. But this is a discussion for another thread

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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July 15, 2015, 08:25:39 PM
 #3247



I've seen other counts where the Bubble of 2011 is counted as it's own mini supercycle with a new one starting after bitcoin bottomed out in $2 range. What do you make of that?

Then we are in exactly the same position. Where wave-[III] is not yet complete and we just finished wave-(4) of that [III] (the red count).

Edit:
And maybe I was a little overboard with that last comment in my other post. It'll be 10-15 years and maybe more depending on how long it takes to complete the V of (5) of [V]. We all may not be dead, but it'll be a long effing time.

wait, are you saying we'll be in a 10-15 year long bearmarket?

Not at all. I'm saying that if this is (5) of [III], once we get finished with this and the [IV] and the [V] and the [[II]] that follows that, combined, will be 10-15 years and possibly longer depending on how long everything excluding the [[II]] takes.

This was all timed out approximately using typical lengths for the waves in question.

Edit;
As tzupy has said on numerous occasions, everything is beginning to "slow down". Not really on lower time frames, but the larger count is beginning to have more and more time between reversals.

....so 800$ or less in 2020.... yea ummmm no.

Just like <$enter the number of the week over the last 18 months wasn't possible, right? Ok... Smiley

I know this won't be approved by many here so no worries. Also, I didn't use Fibonacci to find the price levels. Those are only guesstimates and since you can expect the correction of a complete impulse to hit the level of the 4th of one smaller degree, it should be around 152-1163. This assuming the bear market is over.


I am not anywhere close to your level of understanding of EW but do you think it's really likely Bitcoin could survive going to 20k in the next 10 years then dropping down to double digits over the following 10 year period? It just doesn't seem to match up with adoption cycles and exponential growth trends.

Not to double digits, but triple is a possibility, yes.

I think I prefer masterluc's count over that one. $120,000 here we come! Cheesy

Miz4r, with all due respect, I like you now because I feel this bear market really humbled you. But you can prefer what ever you want, the market doesn't care what any of us want.


As I said in the "questionable" post... That was all approximated using currently available data, so it can change a bit up or down, left or right. It all depends on how things play out.

IMO it's more likely the price is 0 or low double digit (meaning failure or quasi-total collapse) by that time than triple digits.

These are scenarios where TA loses me, when, as sscm2 mentionned, it seemingly totally loses touch with reality.

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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July 15, 2015, 08:36:33 PM
 #3248



I've seen other counts where the Bubble of 2011 is counted as it's own mini supercycle with a new one starting after bitcoin bottomed out in $2 range. What do you make of that?

Then we are in exactly the same position. Where wave-[III] is not yet complete and we just finished wave-(4) of that [III] (the red count).

Edit:
And maybe I was a little overboard with that last comment in my other post. It'll be 10-15 years and maybe more depending on how long it takes to complete the V of (5) of [V]. We all may not be dead, but it'll be a long effing time.

wait, are you saying we'll be in a 10-15 year long bearmarket?

Not at all. I'm saying that if this is (5) of [III], once we get finished with this and the [IV] and the [V] and the [[II]] that follows that, combined, will be 10-15 years and possibly longer depending on how long everything excluding the [[II]] takes.

This was all timed out approximately using typical lengths for the waves in question.

Edit;
As tzupy has said on numerous occasions, everything is beginning to "slow down". Not really on lower time frames, but the larger count is beginning to have more and more time between reversals.

....so 800$ or less in 2020.... yea ummmm no.

Just like <$enter the number of the week over the last 18 months wasn't possible, right? Ok... Smiley

I know this won't be approved by many here so no worries. Also, I didn't use Fibonacci to find the price levels. Those are only guesstimates and since you can expect the correction of a complete impulse to hit the level of the 4th of one smaller degree, it should be around 152-1163. This assuming the bear market is over.


I am not anywhere close to your level of understanding of EW but do you think it's really likely Bitcoin could survive going to 20k in the next 10 years then dropping down to double digits over the following 10 year period? It just doesn't seem to match up with adoption cycles and exponential growth trends.

Not to double digits, but triple is a possibility, yes.

I think I prefer masterluc's count over that one. $120,000 here we come! Cheesy

Miz4r, with all due respect, I like you now because I feel this bear market really humbled you. But you can prefer what ever you want, the market doesn't care what any of us want.


As I said in the "questionable" post... That was all approximated using currently available data, so it can change a bit up or down, left or right. It all depends on how things play out.

IMO it's more likely the price is 0 or low double digit (meaning failure or quasi-total collapse) by that time than triple digits.

These are scenarios where TA loses me, when, as sscm2 mentionned, it seemingly totally loses touch with reality.

When has a financial market moving in an S-curve ever been reality? No matter how the technology progresses, there will be ups and downs in this market. It was unfathomable by most that we would ever see $200 Bitcoins again. Now we are struggling to capture $300 and hold it. The fact is, there isn't always money coming in to fuel rally after rally. There will be lulls in adoption and during those times, it will likely have more selling pressure than buying pressure which causes lower prices. People also have different ideas of what they want to sell at. Some big and some small will sell at every stop along the way.

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July 15, 2015, 08:50:08 PM
 #3249

I think I prefer masterluc's count over that one. $120,000 here we come! Cheesy

Miz4r, with all due respect, I like you now because I feel this bear market really humbled you. But you can prefer what ever you want, the market doesn't care what any of us want.


As I said in the "questionable" post... That was all approximated using currently available data, so it can change a bit up or down, left or right. It all depends on how things play out.

Hey I was just joking a bit, I know the market does whatever it wants to. Smiley By the way was I ever not a humble person in here? Tongue I know I was still quite inexperienced at trading back in April 2013 and have made some stupid mistakes and said silly things at times perhaps, but the crash from $266 to $50 in 2013 already humbled me quite a bit I think. I was never a permabull, although I know I've been too bullish sometimes. The bear market since December 2013 actually taught me how to become profitable at trading in downtrends as well as uptrends, it was and still is a good learning experience for me. But inside I will always be more of a bull because I want Bitcoin to do well and not hurt and scare away new people joining the scene who buy their very first coins. This explains my bias. I don't let that bias get in the way of my personal trading though, I have to stay more objective there or it's going to hurt my own wallet. Wink

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July 15, 2015, 08:53:27 PM
 #3250

When has a financial market moving in an S-curve ever been reality? No matter how the technology progresses, there will be ups and downs in this market. It was unfathomable by most that we would ever see $200 Bitcoins again. Now we are struggling to capture $300 and hold it. The fact is, there isn't always money coming in to fuel rally after rally. There will be lulls in adoption and during those times, it will likely have more selling pressure than buying pressure which causes lower prices. People also have different ideas of what they want to sell at. Some big and some small will sell at every stop along the way.

Look I'm not putting in doubt your TA or market analysis but for Bitcoin to stall at a 3-6 B$ market cap 5 years from now spells utter failure IMO.

You are seemingly looking at this only from a speculative POV. This is not a regular financial market driven only by speculation. We haven't seen s-curve in a market before because there was never one coupled to an underlying technology generating user adoption strictly from its innovative use cases. I will not argue that speculation is not what has driven this market so far since I do believe this to be true but this will not always be the case. Technological use-cases, once the infrastructure is installed, as well as socio-economic and geopolitical events will eventually be a driving force in this market.

If we believe that new users are entering the Bitcoin ecosystem everyday strictly off the merits of the technology then there is no sense in believing that the underlying currency market cap would stall or fall to that level 5 years from now (barring any considerable technical issues)

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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July 15, 2015, 09:10:25 PM
 #3251

Look I'm not putting in doubt your TA or market analysis but for Bitcoin to stall at a 3-6 B$ market cap 5 years from now spells utter failure IMO.

You are seemingly looking at this only from a speculative POV. This is not a regular financial market driven only by speculation. We haven't seen s-curve in a market before because there was never one coupled to an underlying technology generating user adoption strictly from its innovative use cases. I will not argue that speculation is not what has driven this market so far since I do believe this to be true but this will not always be the case. Technological use-cases, once the infrastructure is installed, as well as socio-economic and geopolitical events will eventually be a driving force in this market.

Agreed.  Wink
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July 15, 2015, 09:31:46 PM
 #3252

I think I prefer masterluc's count over that one. $120,000 here we come! Cheesy

Miz4r, with all due respect, I like you now because I feel this bear market really humbled you. But you can prefer what ever you want, the market doesn't care what any of us want.


As I said in the "questionable" post... That was all approximated using currently available data, so it can change a bit up or down, left or right. It all depends on how things play out.

Hey I was just joking a bit, I know the market does whatever it wants to. Smiley By the way was I ever not a humble person in here? Tongue I know I was still quite inexperienced at trading back in April 2013 and have made some stupid mistakes and said silly things at times perhaps, but the crash from $266 to $50 in 2013 already humbled me quite a bit I think. I was never a permabull, although I know I've been too bullish sometimes. The bear market since December 2013 actually taught me how to become profitable at trading in downtrends as well as uptrends, it was and still is a good learning experience for me. But inside I will always be more of a bull because I want Bitcoin to do well and not hurt and scare away new people joining the scene who buy their very first coins. This explains my bias. I don't let that bias get in the way of my personal trading though, I have to stay more objective there or it's going to hurt my own wallet. Wink

I apologize that maybe I mistook how I remember you from your earlier days. I thought I remembered you ranking up there with the inca's and jimbo's of the forum in tunnel visioned bullishness. Smiley

I don't want any of you guys to take me wrong. I am long term bullish. But I simply cannot idly watch as my coins depreciate when there is something I can do about it. I don't trade to remove fiat liquidity from the market. I do it to acquire more coins. I have pulled some money out to buy a car and start a business, but unless I HAVE to, I try not to.

When has a financial market moving in an S-curve ever been reality? No matter how the technology progresses, there will be ups and downs in this market. It was unfathomable by most that we would ever see $200 Bitcoins again. Now we are struggling to capture $300 and hold it. The fact is, there isn't always money coming in to fuel rally after rally. There will be lulls in adoption and during those times, it will likely have more selling pressure than buying pressure which causes lower prices. People also have different ideas of what they want to sell at. Some big and some small will sell at every stop along the way.

Look I'm not putting in doubt your TA or market analysis but for Bitcoin to stall at a 3-6 B$ market cap 5 years from now spells utter failure IMO.

You are seemingly looking at this only from a speculative POV. This is not a regular financial market driven only by speculation. We haven't seen s-curve in a market before because there was never one coupled to an underlying technology generating user adoption strictly from its innovative use cases. I will not argue that speculation is not what has driven this market so far since I do believe this to be true but this will not always be the case. Technological use-cases, once the infrastructure is installed, as well as socio-economic and geopolitical events will eventually be a driving force in this market.

If we believe that new users are entering the Bitcoin ecosystem everyday strictly off the merits of the technology then there is no sense in believing that the underlying currency market cap would stall or fall to that level 5 years from now (barring any considerable technical issues)

That all falls in EW analysis. When the masses learn about and decide to make the switch (partially or fully) that will be the mark of the Wave-III. This could be in the next few years, or at the larger degree [[III]] that would start some time around 2030. Even the infrastructure built on top of the blockchain can go through EW-esque waves of progress which will directly affect the aggressiveness of speculation during the meteoric rise of the 3rd wave, but eventually, the tech plateaus and speculation will be all that's left as far as price discovery.

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July 15, 2015, 09:44:05 PM
 #3253

I'm willing to wait 15 years. It'll be just in time for my mid-life crisis.

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July 15, 2015, 10:12:59 PM
 #3254

Also worth pointing out adpption levels aren't as rosy as we like to believe/ as is touted on most permabull press stories.

For instance, this title made it to the top on /r/bitcoin page. http://www.coinfox.info/news/2408-bitsoko

I can tell you for a FACT, 95% of this article is BS! The only truth to it is the $100,000 grant figure.

These are some of the stories that go round and reinforce what we WOULD like to believe.  The reality is a whole lot different.



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July 15, 2015, 11:06:41 PM
 #3255

I think I prefer masterluc's count over that one. $120,000 here we come! Cheesy

Miz4r, with all due respect, I like you now because I feel this bear market really humbled you. But you can prefer what ever you want, the market doesn't care what any of us want.


As I said in the "questionable" post... That was all approximated using currently available data, so it can change a bit up or down, left or right. It all depends on how things play out.

Hey I was just joking a bit, I know the market does whatever it wants to. Smiley By the way was I ever not a humble person in here? Tongue I know I was still quite inexperienced at trading back in April 2013 and have made some stupid mistakes and said silly things at times perhaps, but the crash from $266 to $50 in 2013 already humbled me quite a bit I think. I was never a permabull, although I know I've been too bullish sometimes. The bear market since December 2013 actually taught me how to become profitable at trading in downtrends as well as uptrends, it was and still is a good learning experience for me. But inside I will always be more of a bull because I want Bitcoin to do well and not hurt and scare away new people joining the scene who buy their very first coins. This explains my bias. I don't let that bias get in the way of my personal trading though, I have to stay more objective there or it's going to hurt my own wallet. Wink

I apologize that maybe I mistook how I remember you from your earlier days. I thought I remembered you ranking up there with the inca's and jimbo's of the forum in tunnel visioned bullishness. Smiley

I don't want any of you guys to take me wrong. I am long term bullish. But I simply cannot idly watch as my coins depreciate when there is something I can do about it. I don't trade to remove fiat liquidity from the market. I do it to acquire more coins. I have pulled some money out to buy a car and start a business, but unless I HAVE to, I try not to.

I understand your point of view and I respect your charts and analysis a lot. I always like to look at many different perspectives and then distill my own perspective from that. I've learned a lot from you as well as from masterluc and many other people here and other places. If we're going to make a lower low like you think I will go short and try to make a profit from that, but I hope it won't come to that. I would also never cheer on my own shorts, I just feel bad for the new people in BTC even if I profit from it. I don't feel bad for those who take out loans and then go all-in though thinking they're gonna be rich, just for the honest people who are genuinely interested in Bitcoin and have decided after some thinking to put some money in. I'm just not a cutthroat trader who laughs at people who lose money while I profit from their mistakes. I wish we all just could be happy and make money trading except the trolls and assholes lol.

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July 16, 2015, 12:00:00 AM
 #3256

Wow, here is a some sort of holy war about me.

Guys, I don't  have any communications with any professional traders and trading gamblers. I didn't studied at any financial lessons, except I was long term subscriber at s3052 and waveaddict and now learning more heavy elliottwave.com subscription.

I don't understand any trader I meet as well as them don't understand me.

I am a "sofa" trader and lonely wolf and counter-social element. The only reason I post this thread - is to throw out bulk information out of my head, read it and feedbacks and then systematize it back. And repeat.

This thread helps me to keep chaos in my head under control because I read megabytes a day. I don't need power, glory, prophecy or whatever. I just want to keep clear with lots of information. I share it with you along with my fear and my greed.

Without this thread I think I'd already was dead, because last bubble informational and emotional pressure put me in deep hypertensive crisis despite I earned a lot of money.

While questing once in noble wood of gray,
medieval pine,
I came upon a tomb,
rain-slick'd,
rubbed-cool,
ethereal,
its inscription long-vanished,
yet still within its melancholy fissures.
sinner
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July 16, 2015, 12:49:44 AM
 #3257





Rynin, you are long term bearish?
ssmc2
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July 16, 2015, 12:52:59 AM
 #3258

He gets bullish around 2040. Tongue
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July 16, 2015, 05:42:48 AM
 #3259

That all falls in EW analysis. ... Even the infrastructure built on top of the blockchain can go through EW-esque waves
If you have a hammer, everything looks like a nail Smiley

Fairplay medal of dnaleor's trading simulator. Smiley
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July 16, 2015, 06:47:51 AM
 #3260

Where did you get these time frames from Ryn? EW is never good with timeframes...

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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