Analysis

[RyNinDaCleM]

I think I prefer masterluc's count over that one. $120,000 here we come!

Miz4r, with all due respect, I like you now because I feel this bear market really humbled you. But you can prefer what ever you want, the market doesn't care what any of us want.


As I said in the "questionable" post... That was all approximated using currently available data, so it can change a bit up or down, left or right. It all depends on how things play out.

Hey I was just joking a bit, I know the market does whatever it wants to. By the way was I ever not a humble person in here? I know I was still quite inexperienced at trading back in April 2013 and have made some stupid mistakes and said silly things at times perhaps, but the crash from $266 to $50 in 2013 already humbled me quite a bit I think. I was never a permabull, although I know I've been too bullish sometimes. The bear market since December 2013 actually taught me how to become profitable at trading in downtrends as well as uptrends, it was and still is a good learning experience for me. But inside I will always be more of a bull because I want Bitcoin to do well and not hurt and scare away new people joining the scene who buy their very first coins. This explains my bias. I don't let that bias get in the way of my personal trading though, I have to stay more objective there or it's going to hurt my own wallet.

I apologize that maybe I mistook how I remember you from your earlier days. I thought I remembered you ranking up there with the inca's and jimbo's of the forum in tunnel visioned bullishness.

I don't want any of you guys to take me wrong. I am long term bullish. But I simply cannot idly watch as my coins depreciate when there is something I can do about it. I don't trade to remove fiat liquidity from the market. I do it to acquire more coins. I have pulled some money out to buy a car and start a business, but unless I HAVE to, I try not to.

When has a financial market moving in an S-curve ever been reality? No matter how the technology progresses, there will be ups and downs in this market. It was unfathomable by most that we would ever see $200 Bitcoins again. Now we are struggling to capture $300 and hold it. The fact is, there isn't always money coming in to fuel rally after rally. There will be lulls in adoption and during those times, it will likely have more selling pressure than buying pressure which causes lower prices. People also have different ideas of what they want to sell at. Some big and some small will sell at every stop along the way.

Look I'm not putting in doubt your TA or market analysis but for Bitcoin to stall at a 3-6 B$ market cap 5 years from now spells utter failure IMO.

You are seemingly looking at this only from a speculative POV. This is not a regular financial market driven only by speculation. We haven't seen s-curve in a market before because there was never one coupled to an underlying technology generating user adoption strictly from its innovative use cases. I will not argue that speculation is not what has driven this market so far since I do believe this to be true but this will not always be the case. Technological use-cases, once the infrastructure is installed, as well as socio-economic and geopolitical events will eventually be a driving force in this market.

If we believe that new users are entering the Bitcoin ecosystem everyday strictly off the merits of the technology then there is no sense in believing that the underlying currency market cap would stall or fall to that level 5 years from now (barring any considerable technical issues)

That all falls in EW analysis. When the masses learn about and decide to make the switch (partially or fully) that will be the mark of the Wave-III. This could be in the next few years, or at the larger degree [[III]] that would start some time around 2030. Even the infrastructure built on top of the blockchain can go through EW-esque waves of progress which will directly affect the aggressiveness of speculation during the meteoric rise of the 3rd wave, but eventually, the tech plateaus and speculation will be all that's left as far as price discovery.

[1714011967]

1714011967

[megadeth]

I'm willing to wait 15 years. It'll be just in time for my mid-life crisis.

[Afrikoin]

Also worth pointing out adpption levels aren't as rosy as we like to believe/ as is touted on most permabull press stories.

For instance, this title made it to the top on /r/bitcoin page. http://www.coinfox.info/news/2408-bitsoko

I can tell you for a FACT, 95% of this article is BS! The only truth to it is the $100,000 grant figure.

These are some of the stories that go round and reinforce what we WOULD like to believe.  The reality is a whole lot different.

[Miz4r]

I think I prefer masterluc's count over that one. $120,000 here we come!

Miz4r, with all due respect, I like you now because I feel this bear market really humbled you. But you can prefer what ever you want, the market doesn't care what any of us want.


As I said in the "questionable" post... That was all approximated using currently available data, so it can change a bit up or down, left or right. It all depends on how things play out.

Hey I was just joking a bit, I know the market does whatever it wants to. By the way was I ever not a humble person in here? I know I was still quite inexperienced at trading back in April 2013 and have made some stupid mistakes and said silly things at times perhaps, but the crash from $266 to $50 in 2013 already humbled me quite a bit I think. I was never a permabull, although I know I've been too bullish sometimes. The bear market since December 2013 actually taught me how to become profitable at trading in downtrends as well as uptrends, it was and still is a good learning experience for me. But inside I will always be more of a bull because I want Bitcoin to do well and not hurt and scare away new people joining the scene who buy their very first coins. This explains my bias. I don't let that bias get in the way of my personal trading though, I have to stay more objective there or it's going to hurt my own wallet.

I apologize that maybe I mistook how I remember you from your earlier days. I thought I remembered you ranking up there with the inca's and jimbo's of the forum in tunnel visioned bullishness.

I don't want any of you guys to take me wrong. I am long term bullish. But I simply cannot idly watch as my coins depreciate when there is something I can do about it. I don't trade to remove fiat liquidity from the market. I do it to acquire more coins. I have pulled some money out to buy a car and start a business, but unless I HAVE to, I try not to.

I understand your point of view and I respect your charts and analysis a lot. I always like to look at many different perspectives and then distill my own perspective from that. I've learned a lot from you as well as from masterluc and many other people here and other places. If we're going to make a lower low like you think I will go short and try to make a profit from that, but I hope it won't come to that. I would also never cheer on my own shorts, I just feel bad for the new people in BTC even if I profit from it. I don't feel bad for those who take out loans and then go all-in though thinking they're gonna be rich, just for the honest people who are genuinely interested in Bitcoin and have decided after some thinking to put some money in. I'm just not a cutthroat trader who laughs at people who lose money while I profit from their mistakes. I wish we all just could be happy and make money trading except the trolls and assholes lol.

[realdos]

Wow, here is a some sort of holy war about me.

Guys, I don't  have any communications with any professional traders and trading gamblers. I didn't studied at any financial lessons, except I was long term subscriber at s3052 and waveaddict and now learning more heavy elliottwave.com subscription.

I don't understand any trader I meet as well as them don't understand me.

I am a "sofa" trader and lonely wolf and counter-social element. The only reason I post this thread - is to throw out bulk information out of my head, read it and feedbacks and then systematize it back. And repeat.

This thread helps me to keep chaos in my head under control because I read megabytes a day. I don't need power, glory, prophecy or whatever. I just want to keep clear with lots of information. I share it with you along with my fear and my greed.

Without this thread I think I'd already was dead, because last bubble informational and emotional pressure put me in deep hypertensive crisis despite I earned a lot of money.

While questing once in noble wood of gray,
medieval pine,
I came upon a tomb,
rain-slick'd,
rubbed-cool,
ethereal,
its inscription long-vanished,
yet still within its melancholy fissures.

[sinner]

Rynin, you are long term bearish?

[ssmc2]

He gets bullish around 2040.

[Wary]

That all falls in EW analysis. ... Even the infrastructure built on top of the blockchain can go through EW-esque waves

If you have a hammer, everything looks like a nail

[lebing]

Where did you get these time frames from Ryn? EW is never good with timeframes...

[RyNinDaCleM]

Where did you get these time frames from Ryn? EW is never good with timeframes...

http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-guide.htm

[masterluc]

The uptrend is healthy so far. Goes up on increasing volume and down on decreasing.



Oscillators are healthy with no bearish and little bullish divergence on macd.



As said before there is a resistance of yearly vwap



I don't start EW count until I'll see triangle (wave 4). Until this I watch for volume, divergences and trend lines. This gives me more realistic picture and don't let me go by invalid EW subcounts.

[Han]

But Master, the hourly sma200, the "holy grail" of all bubbles has been decisively broken on all exchanges and the price remains below it still. This does not concern you?

Edit: Thanks for the explanation. It makes sense that the hourly sma200 would only matter at the end of a bubble.

[masterluc]

May be its a false bubble start, but trend still healthy. Price shows resistance at 320-340, where daily ma360 and yearly vwap located. It may take some time to show its strength.

Price is on positive daily and weekly BB territory, above daily 200 ma, above log downtrend line, Weekly ADX shows start of trending, while Daily ADX shows correction. No bearish divergences.

Hourly 200 ma matters on strong bubble trend. But current trend only starts and very infant. Uptrend was recently born.

I'll notify if I'll see warning/reversal signs.

[masterluc]

Here are most important resistances by geometry after breaking log downtrend (most-most important is red)

[masterluc]

Hourly pennant

[zby]

Hourly pennant

wedge

[hodlmybtc]

Always like your analysis luc! Think it's the first time I post here tho

Hourly divs:

[masterluc]

Is that cup and hadle here 4 months long?

[impulse]

Is that cup and hadle here 4 months long?

Wow, that's the most textbook cup and handle I've ever seen in a bitcoin chart. How long to resolve the handle?

[Cconvert2G36]

two weeks ™