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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 921630 times)
sana54210
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September 24, 2015, 05:25:27 AM
 #3821

If i have understood correctly now:

The ABC correction up from 198 retraced only 38.2% of the entire wave. Its totally allowed to retrace to 61.8% (and more) (Around 270).

So basically the market is in a nice juncture where the bulls and the bears are fighting it out.

If the price breaks the trend line upwards you are going to see a massive short position unwind.
If the price breaks the trend line downwards you are going to see a massive long position unwind.

There is a lot of future contracts bought to bet on that pivot, expecting a violent move which ever way it goes.



Always amazes me to see people risking so much with the market direction so unclear.

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oda.krell
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September 24, 2015, 10:04:29 AM
 #3822

[...]

Always amazes me to see people risking so much with the market direction so unclear.

Don't think that's entirely true. What's the worst, still likely scenarios for your leveraged position after a breakout/down in the current market? A rapid move in the opposite direction is unlikely if you entered on a volume supported breakout (and you have stops for the worst worst case anyway). So the worst likely case would be... that nothing much happens. As in, no decent move in any direction, but just more sideways (which, right now, I think is the most likely scenario anyway). Sure, if you don't time it right that could hurt your position, but not hugely so. If you compare it against the potential payoff in case the move doesn't fizzle, it might be worth it.

tl;dr Leveraged position, after a breakout, in a sideways market doesn't seem to be such a huge risk.


Disclaimer: I don't use leverage in my regular trading. Take the above with a large grain of salt ^_^

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rebuilder
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September 24, 2015, 10:20:35 AM
 #3823

Oda.krell: worst case would be the same as always: a market move in the wrong direction, fast enough to either mess up the trading engine on whatever rinky-dink service you trade on, leaving your stops unexecuted or at least exexcuted well beyond their set price.

That's the thing about betting on fast big moves - when those happen,  the exchanges have a tendency to become unreliable.

Selling out to advertisers shows you respect neither yourself nor the rest of us.
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oda.krell
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September 24, 2015, 10:53:38 AM
 #3824

Oda.krell: worst case would be the same as always: a market move in the wrong direction, fast enough to either mess up the trading engine on whatever rinky-dink service you trade on, leaving your stops unexecuted or at least exexcuted well beyond their set price.

That's the thing about betting on fast big moves - when those happen,  the exchanges have a tendency to become unreliable.

You're completely skipping over the distinction I wanted to make, between 'worst case, in general' and 'worst case that is likely after breakout, in a sideways market', but okay...

Agreed that somewhere around [yellow box] or [orange box] was, approximately, the last time many traders would have concluded we have a breakdown?




That's more or less the scenario I'm describing above. Breakdown, on decent volume, followed by a bit of a disappointing 'fizzle'. And the difference between exiting with a profit or exiting with a loss is kind of narrow, but there's not much of a wipe out risk either.

If your point is that, in principle, you can always be wiped out in margin trading, the answer is: sure. Always a possible. But my point was, under the current (comparably docile) market conditions, a big swing in the opposite direction of a breakout seems less likely, reducing the risk to be wiped out.

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rebuilder
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September 26, 2015, 07:27:05 AM
 #3825

Oda.krell: I seem to have misunderstood your post. You were talking about taking a position after a breakout? I was talking about taking a position in anticipation of a breakou or breakdown, no knowing which way it will go. That was what the post you first replied to seemed to be about.

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oda.krell
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September 26, 2015, 09:45:34 AM
 #3826

^ Yes, that was my idea. Guess I interpreted the post I replied to a bit loosely... Sorry for the misunderstanding :)

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davidorentol
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September 27, 2015, 04:49:08 PM
 #3827

wow  Shocked SPAM mode is again ON on this tread
please open your own treads and post stupid post & graphics there ......not here
masterluc
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September 30, 2015, 11:16:34 AM
 #3828

Silence phase goes well so far

Fakhoury
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September 30, 2015, 11:42:41 AM
 #3829

Silence phase goes well so far

What do you expect next brother ?

Quote from:  Satoshi Nakamoto
Feb. 14, 2010: I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.
Miss Fortune
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September 30, 2015, 12:59:50 PM
 #3830

Old topic closed. lucif nickname rebranded. Analysis reloaded.

Determining trend.... Mid term trend is undefined. Market makes decision, and if you are looking for trading advise - here is it: Stay away from trading now, keep your funds in most comfortable position for you - fiat or btc.

The last figure I drew was this potential triangle.



Should never end many people have put there hopes in it.
mordekaiser
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September 30, 2015, 01:16:25 PM
 #3831

Old topic closed. lucif nickname rebranded. Analysis reloaded.

Determining trend.... Mid term trend is undefined. Market makes decision, and if you are looking for trading advise - here is it: Stay away from trading now, keep your funds in most comfortable position for you - fiat or btc.

The last figure I drew was this potential triangle.



It wont end because it is needed by the the investors and also to the ones who is not yet investing.
lebing
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October 02, 2015, 08:40:05 AM
 #3832

bitcoin.com has a forum now. Can we pls move this thread over there? This thread is the only reason I visit this site now.
https://forum.bitcoin.com/speculation-f43/

Bro, do you even blockchain?
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October 02, 2015, 08:59:31 AM
 #3833

bitcoin.com has a forum now. Can we pls move this thread over there? This thread is the only reason I visit this site now.
https://forum.bitcoin.com/speculation-f43/

I can't believe Roger "liquidity doesn't imply solvency" Ver still has this of a dedicated flock.

Have you guys no self awareness?
BldSwtTrs
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October 02, 2015, 09:09:59 AM
Last edit: October 02, 2015, 09:25:57 AM by BldSwtTrs
 #3834

bitcoin.com has a forum now. Can we pls move this thread over there? This thread is the only reason I visit this site now.
https://forum.bitcoin.com/speculation-f43/

I can't believe Roger "liquidity doesn't imply solvency" Ver still has this of a dedicated flock.

Have you guys no self awareness?

And one of the first thing those little XT whiners do is doxing theymos:

https://forum.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-discussion/dox-of-theymos-michael-marquardt-blockchain-db-com-t572.html#p1502

Classy.
Lol. You trying to frame theymos as a victim is hilarious.
BldSwtTrs
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October 02, 2015, 09:13:20 AM
 #3835

bitcoin.com has a forum now. Can we pls move this thread over there? This thread is the only reason I visit this site now.
https://forum.bitcoin.com/speculation-f43/

I can't believe Roger "liquidity doesn't imply solvency" Ver still has this of a dedicated flock.

Have you guys no self awareness?

And one of the first thing those little XT whiners do is doxing theymos:

https://forum.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-discussion/dox-of-theymos-michael-marquardt-blockchain-db-com-t572.html#p1502

Lol. You trying to frame theymos as a victim is hilarious.

butthurt sheeps.
Dude it's you who is bringing that subject.

Quote
Classy.
Quote
butthurt sheeps.
Cheesy

Can you be more of a clown than that? More etiquette lessons from you please!
wpalczynski
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October 04, 2015, 04:39:12 PM
 #3836

Can you guys please refrain from spamming this thread with non-speculation related posts.

ft73
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October 05, 2015, 02:19:36 PM
 #3837

Can you guys please refrain from spamming this thread with non-speculation related posts.

+1
ssmc2
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October 06, 2015, 01:16:11 PM
 #3838

Thanks for all you do Luc. Question- At what price breakout would you consider us out of the sideways/silence phase?
masterluc
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October 06, 2015, 02:19:49 PM
 #3839

I will consider escape from range lock when price break up range lock  Grin I have no PC around, this is upper line of horizontal trend posted here many times. It's around $320

So until there I do yawn

ssmc2
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October 06, 2015, 02:56:42 PM
 #3840

That's what I figured, I was just hoping maybe something changed recently I hadn't noticed. I need to stop being impatient Cheesy
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