Analysis

[masterluc]

Some status reports.

The main near-horizontal trend line. Not even in middle.



Yearly wvap and deviations. Price dancing around wvap




Weekly picture. Healthy enough - bullish reversal candle + return to positive BB + MACD bullish hook.



Major bearish log trend. Broken. Retested. Escaped.



PnF - nothing interesting, except the whole YTD fits into this small eclipse lol (low volatility)

[1713427594]

1713427594

[klee]

Very cool stuff as always!

I agree with 270s and I also see a top (if really bullish) around 330 as you depict in the main near-horizontal trend line.

After that, no clue from me...

[gotmilk_]

I'm a bit worried because RSI is in highly in overbought area. It is close to overbought even on daily. So maybe a small correction could be in place?

[BTCtrader71]

Could we be on the upswing of the second shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern spanning most of 2015?

First shoulder peaked at about $300 in early March 2015.

Head peaked at about $312 in July 2015.

Expectation of peak of second shoulder at around $300 in November.


(I posted this same comment just now in chessnut's thread - these are the two threads that I find the most useful in terms of learning EW. My apologies if this is considered bad etiquette  .)

[Dilla]

3rd time's the charm?
Let's hope we break the cycle and push through $300

[BTCtrader71]

Could we be on the upswing of the second shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern spanning most of 2015?

First shoulder peaked at about $300 in early March 2015.

Head peaked at about $312 in July 2015.

Expectation of peak of second shoulder at around $300 in November.

[reading investopedia ...]

Or perhaps an inverse head and shoulders marking the reversal of the downtrend from $1200.

Shoulder #1 trough either $170 in january 2015, or $212 in February.

Head trough around $220 somewhere in april-may-june.

Shoulder #2 trough in the 190s in august.

Either way we would be on target for about $300 in another month or so. If an inverse head and shoulders, then we begin the trip to da moon.

EDIT: By the above inverse head and shoulders interpretation, the head would be smaller than the shoulders which I know is not how it's supposed to be. But not every pattern is a perfect pattern, right?

[Afrikoin]

Could we be on the upswing of the second shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern spanning most of 2015?

First shoulder peaked at about $300 in early March 2015.

Head peaked at about $312 in July 2015.

Expectation of peak of second shoulder at around $300 in November.

[reading investopedia ...]

Or perhaps an inverse head and shoulders marking the reversal of the downtrend from $1200.

Shoulder #1 trough either $170 in january 2015, or $212 in February.

Head trough around $220 somewhere in april-may-june.

Shoulder #2 trough in the 190s in august.

Either way we would be on target for about $300 in another month or so. If an inverse head and shoulders, then we begin the trip to da moon.

EDIT: By the above inverse head and shoulders interpretation, the head would be smaller than the shoulders which I know is not how it's supposed to be. But not every pattern is a perfect pattern, right?

Explain using charts.

[masterluc]

This? H&S? No.

[Joerii]

But not every pattern is a perfect pattern, right?

The funny thing about TA is you can find a pattern to match any idea, if you just look for imperfect patterns And to make matters worse, you can find multiple patterns that conflict each other. I find that the only patterns that are worth a LOT are the ones everyone agrees on. Because then they become self fulfilling prophecies.

[Afrikoin]

But not every pattern is a perfect pattern, right?

The funny thing about TA is you can find a pattern to match any idea, if you just look for imperfect patterns And to make matters worse, you can find multiple patterns that conflict each other. I find that the only patterns that are worth a LOT are the ones everyone agrees on. Because then they become self fulfilling prophecies.

not always.

Recall the cup and handle pattern from couple of months ago.

[masterluc]

Figures may trigger and may fail, but triangle is not a circle anyway.

[Tzupy]

I tried to find out more about the MMM ponzi that is supposed to fuel the current uptrend (and I count as a fundamental).
It has been running for years, including accepting bitcoin for over 3 years, so I'm not convinced it is so important.
Supposedly in South Africa it has been running wild lately, but Google trends don't show a large rise for bitcoin in SA.
And it doesn't explain the huge buys in China, if bitcoins would be bought in SA, I would expect to be sold in other countries.
So, if someone has a better explanation for the renewed Chinese appetite, please post it.
The question is how long will this ponzi / renewed Chinese demand go on, with major medium term consequences on the price.

[ElectricMucus]

I tried to find out more about the MMM ponzi that is supposed to fuel the current uptrend (and I count as a fundamental).
It has been running for years, including accepting bitcoin for over 3 years, so I'm not convinced it is so important.
Supposedly in South Africa it has been running wild lately, but Google trends don't show a large rise for bitcoin in SA.
And it doesn't explain the huge buys in China, if bitcoins would be bought in SA, I would expect to be sold in other countries.
So, if someone has a better explanation for the renewed Chinese appetite, please post it.
The question is how long will this ponzi / renewed Chinese demand go on, with major medium term consequences on the price.

occams razor
What's wrong with this simply being a pump, and this on Huoubi has the advantage that it can be made look huge by buying and selling the same coins several times without additional costs. Volume on exchanges with trading fees hasn't spiked, soo.

Also the run-up looks natural, albeit a little smooth (not enough oscillations). My guess this is a genuine spike, just the volume has been artificially inflated by people who want to make it look like it counts.

[masterluc]

I'm a bit worried because RSI is in highly in overbought area. It is close to overbought even on daily. So maybe a small correction could be in place?

I'd better worry about daily adx at 60. ADX > 50 usually hints about coming local top or bottom. However adx may rise much more than 50.

[lebing]

starting to look bubbly.

[molecular]

starting to look bubbly.

you ain't seen nothing yet

I'm waiting for a sizable correction in the meantime, though (since ~ 2 days ago, actually). 200 hour MA (blue in my chart) could be a target (~$252). Incidentally that's pretty close to the lower uptrend line (gray in my chart, currently at ~$248).



On the other hand: who knows what's up in China... this thing might have more legs.

[BTCtrader71]

Here's what I mean by inverse head and shoulders:



I'm not disagreeing with the master, just wanted a better visualization of what I was thinking.

[masterluc]

This is also not a duck

[ElectricMucus]

Here's what I mean by inverse head and shoulders:



I'm not disagreeing with the master, just wanted a better visualization of what I was thinking.

If that is a reverse h&s the person it shows must have some sort of physical condition. (or is wearing a padded suit)

[BTCtrader71]

If that is a reverse h&s the person it shows must have some sort of physical condition. (or is wearing a padded suit)

If you were hanging upside down you might be happy to be wearing a padded suit! lol