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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 923617 times)
JayJuanGee
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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November 06, 2017, 09:21:52 PM
 #5301

Hamster shorts?

I was thinking it might be something like running in a hamster wheel/treadmill? or nibbling little nuts?   lol

Well, шopт xoмячьё means short hamster.  In fact, шopт is just a direct transliteration of the pronunciation "short" into cyrillic.  Like when Vanga or the people who comment on his blog transliterate "hai" for high instead of using a Russian word.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZ9UqGOFoOE
I really have too much time on my hands.

I am not working for whales yet to manipulate btc trading so
It is direct translation Under short hmster appears to be substituted.
That sentence need to be edited,but larger text is needed  otherwise sentence may be out of context
Bing is pretty good translator,fb and twitter are using bing translator

But if your financial wealth depends from translation of one russian service

I saw comments on VK,immediatly hype was created after his 9k estimation and further growth to 14k,he told as i have ,wrote,9k after that deep correct becouse of 2x what by his opinion will be hard ,than many,many months further growth to above 10k possibly 14k 15k
Personally i dont think btc price will be 9 k,need accumulation on 7500k

But i suppose fork will create problems,

Volume is lower ,7600k it was weekend hype

https://www.bing.com/translator


More accurately he is saying after this correction - there will be several months before going to 100k+

Check out Masterluc's replies to some of the comments.  He thinks it will take more than 12 months.

Marc Hohn
When do you expect BTC to reach 6 digits? During 2018, within 12 months from now? Do you think McAfee will not have to eat his balls, so 500.000 in 3 years is possible?

Marc , it depends on many things. Whether the top would be the terminal of the historical. I could answer this only after analyzing coming crash.
yesterday at 2:21 pm

Marc Hohn
OK, thanks. So, first we have to reach 6 digit, and that could happen in next 12 months?

Marc , 12? No. I dont think it will be so fast.



Thanks for pointing that out.   I think its probably more like 12-36 months. At either rate, Luc believes, as do I, we are in a long bull trend.  This could go on for a while.


Yes.... Getting to 6 digits ($100k) in 12 months or less would seem to be quite overinflated and in too quick of a timeframe, and on the other hand, we can recognize that we are in a longer term bull market, and as long as we do not get TOO overheated, then such longer bull trend could last up to 36 months as you suggest - but even that would be a lot because our current bull trend seems to be going on a bit more than 2 years - since about August/September 2015 (and I think that our current bull trend was confirmed in about May 2016 when BTC prices broke above $500 after that bit of a price stagnation period of largely $350 to $450 between about December 2015 and May 2016.

Put BTC here: 35EVP8EePt8dyvKHaB7bXaRmKLm22YgRCA

How much alt coin diversification is necessary? if you are investing in Bitcoin, then perhaps 0%?
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November 06, 2017, 09:24:56 PM
 #5302

I've always had the feeling that 2020 was going to be the year of years. My opinion on that hasn't changed one bit. That's when we start to get a glimpse of the true potential of the whole thing.

JayJuanGee
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November 06, 2017, 09:41:07 PM
 #5303

I've always had the feeling that 2020 was going to be the year of years. My opinion on that hasn't changed one bit. That's when we start to get a glimpse of the true potential of the whole thing.


I imagine that you are basing that on the next halvening and also merely that kind of time frame gives bitcoin enough time to develop, expand, and perhaps prove itself on a more "spreading to the populace" basis?

Put BTC here: 35EVP8EePt8dyvKHaB7bXaRmKLm22YgRCA

How much alt coin diversification is necessary? if you are investing in Bitcoin, then perhaps 0%?
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November 06, 2017, 09:45:45 PM
 #5304

I imagine that you are basing that on the next halvening and also merely that kind of time frame gives bitcoin enough time to develop, expand, and perhaps prove itself on a more "spreading to the populace" basis?

Halvening of course, but I expect most of the crap that's blighted Bitcoin over the last few years to be resolved, or ignored, by then.

That goes for proper regulatory clarity, decreased media stupidity, scaling to be on its way to being settled and the traditional agitators mad or broke by that point. The weight of normal people and deeper pockets will be enough to drown out the people on the fringes who currently are too loud.

No doubt there'll be other drama, but the current batch will largely be over.

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November 06, 2017, 10:03:37 PM
 #5305

I imagine that you are basing that on the next halvening and also merely that kind of time frame gives bitcoin enough time to develop, expand, and perhaps prove itself on a more "spreading to the populace" basis?

Halvening of course, but I expect most of the crap that's blighted Bitcoin over the last few years to be resolved, or ignored, by then.

That goes for proper regulatory clarity, decreased media stupidity, scaling to be on its way to being settled and the traditional agitators mad or broke by that point. The weight of normal people and deeper pockets will be enough to drown out the people on the fringes who currently are too loud.

No doubt there'll be other drama, but the current batch will largely be over.


I don't want to be insulting to you or your position, but really?  That seems so pie in the sky to believe that drama is going to end any time soon, whether it be from the incumbent drama makers or new ones. 

Don't get me wrong, I do kind of agree with your overall assessment that 2020 could be a decent time frame for bitcoin to really prove itself - but not for the seemingly "no more drama from incumbent drama-makers" that you seem to ascribe.

I don't want to go on and on about this point, but let's just say hypothetically that Ver and Wu and Wright and some of the other BIG blocker attack on bitcoin nutjobs are completely discredited and broken financially and psychologically (which is pie in the sky in and of itself), there are plenty of other potential deep pocket players who can move in and out of those attack on bitcoin positions, causing drama, disinformation and attempts at instability... so yeah, maybe bitcoin is going to surge and move on beyond the bullshit drama and attacks, but I doubt that such moving on is going to be a product of no more attacks and fairly land living happily ever after, but instead likely to be a demonstration that bitcoin remains resilient inspite of the various attacks and the ongoing creativity of attacks and the ongoing increased persistency of such attacks - and peeps gonna largely see through this (whether broad base of regular population peeps but also smart money is also gonna likely see past the attacks, too... but such seeing past does not just happen, it takes time and a process and we are going to have to suffer through ongoing volatility, drama, uncertainty and disinformation.. that is the part and parcel of a disruptive technology, such as bitcoin)

Put BTC here: 35EVP8EePt8dyvKHaB7bXaRmKLm22YgRCA

How much alt coin diversification is necessary? if you are investing in Bitcoin, then perhaps 0%?
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November 06, 2017, 10:06:03 PM
 #5306

I imagine that you are basing that on the next halvening and also merely that kind of time frame gives bitcoin enough time to develop, expand, and perhaps prove itself on a more "spreading to the populace" basis?

Halvening of course, but I expect most of the crap that's blighted Bitcoin over the last few years to be resolved, or ignored, by then.

That goes for proper regulatory clarity, decreased media stupidity, scaling to be on its way to being settled and the traditional agitators mad or broke by that point. The weight of normal people and deeper pockets will be enough to drown out the people on the fringes who currently are too loud.

No doubt there'll be other drama, but the current batch will largely be over.


I don't want to be insulting to you or your position, but really?  That seems so pie in the sky to believe that drama is going to end any time soon, whether it be from the incumbent drama makers or new ones. 

Don't get me wrong, I do kind of agree with your overall assessment that 2020 could be a decent time frame for bitcoin to really prove itself - but not for the seemingly "no more drama from incumbent drama-makers" that you seem to ascribe.

I don't want to go on and on about this point, but let's just say hypothetically that Ver and Wu and Wright and some of the other BIG blocker attack on bitcoin nutjobs are completely discredited and broken financially and psychologically (which is pie in the sky in and of itself), there are plenty of other potential deep pocket players who can move in and out of those attack on bitcoin positions, causing drama, disinformation and attempts at instability... so yeah, maybe bitcoin is going to surge and move on beyond the bullshit drama and attacks, but I doubt that such moving on is going to be a product of no more attacks and fairly land living happily ever after, but instead likely to be a demonstration that bitcoin remains resilient inspite of the various attacks and the ongoing creativity of attacks and the ongoing increased persistency of such attacks - and peeps gonna largely see through this (whether broad base of regular population peeps but also smart money is also gonna likely see past the attacks, too... but such seeing past does not just happen, it takes time and a process and we are going to have to suffer through ongoing volatility, drama, uncertainty and disinformation.. that is the part and parcel of a disruptive technology, such as bitcoin)

Fundamentals aside, if we are in a historic 3, then the timeframes can be quite long and up to another 1100 days or so.

I agree, I doubt that bitcoin will cease to be the center of drama anytime soon. However, the more regulations that allow retirement and traditional investment money to flow into bitcoin, could certainly be a main catalyst for a rise to six figures.
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November 06, 2017, 10:11:29 PM
 #5307

Don't get me wrong, I do kind of agree with your overall assessment that 2020 could be a decent time frame for bitcoin to really prove itself - but not for the seemingly "no more drama from incumbent drama-makers" that you seem to ascribe.

Of course there'll still be drama, but the drama that's worked up until this point has been Bitcoin's imminent demise. People STILL believe that now despite everything.

That seemed more than possible at a $200 doldrum. It's still just about small enough for things like ETH and BCH to convince enough people that they're going to eat BTC's lunch.

If it's 5-10-20x bigger by then for starters there's no way a pretender can get anywhere close to flippening, there'll be that many more people involved and invested. China is done and dusted for now at least. Places like the US will be compelled to clarify where it all stands.

Bitcoin will be entrenched deeper in every possible way. You'll still be able to scare people but not in the full drama queen mode that works now.

It might be like comparing Apple in the late 90s to today. Back then it could've gone either way which gave certain fears to play on. These days the same fears are inconceivable.

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November 07, 2017, 02:05:54 AM
 #5308

Let's please stay focused on the subject of Masterluc's predictions.
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November 07, 2017, 03:48:31 AM
 #5309

Let's please stay focused on the subject of Masterluc's predictions.

Definitely being focused is good but not all situations tou can rely always on predictions. The good predictions is more advantage to always hear nowdays, and for sure bitcoin is very promising and progressive as it always generate good results due to demand that's highly arising. For now it's good to wait than to sell and all I can advise is patiencw rather than panic.

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November 07, 2017, 02:38:26 PM
 #5310

My current thoughts on BTCUSD:

Link to more details of what's pictured:  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/CCJdDKdE-BTCUSD-STAMP-Decided-to-Create-a-New-Publication-The-other/


Follow me on Trading View for excellent signals in Bitcoin/US dollar - Bitstamp - https://www.tradingview.com/u/ProwdClown/.  Will be on a paid subscription website soon with trading signals and technical education using Wyckoff Method in conjunction with Godmode and Stochastic RSI indicators for many more crypto currency pairs besides BTCUSD.
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November 07, 2017, 11:26:15 PM
 #5311

I'm sorry to inform you, than Lucif(Masterluc) was always bitcoin bear. And he extinct.
"BitcoinVanga" is allways bullish on Bitcoin. He(Vanga) is not your prophet(same person). You are wrong.
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November 08, 2017, 01:03:28 AM
 #5312

I find in interested that masterluc see's the exponential trend but can't express it with elliott wave theory.
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November 08, 2017, 09:14:48 AM
 #5313

By him btc will drive to 9000$ untill fork,than will be big correct,after correct btc may goes to 14 k but it will take months,long time period
I see from your history that you're Polish.  I guess you have some facility with Russian.
That thing about substituting under the hamster shorts:  I sounds like very slangy Russian.  Are you familiar with that saying?
 Пoд шopт xoмячьё видимo пoдcтaвляeтe.
It's incredibly funny when translated literally to English.  But what does it mean?

Xoмяк - hamster - inexperienced trader.
пoдcтaвлять - to set up - to trick someone in order to make them do something.

So, the translation is:
Quote
It seems like you are setting up hamsters to go short.

Whatever that means in the context.
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November 08, 2017, 09:23:47 AM
Last edit: November 08, 2017, 09:54:01 AM by dmwardjr
 #5314

Update on the 2 Day TF:

I'm only posting to stir up conversation.  This is only my opinion and I'm the type that when I give an opinion it's, "I'm Sticking To It."  Then, try to get others to offer their thoughts [While investing same or more effort as I've put into it -[not bragging; only encouragement].]

Thread:  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/CCJdDKdE-BTCUSD-STAMP-Decided-to-Create-a-New-Publication-The-other/




7 Day TF: With Indicators:


Follow me on Trading View for excellent signals in Bitcoin/US dollar - Bitstamp - https://www.tradingview.com/u/ProwdClown/.  Will be on a paid subscription website soon with trading signals and technical education using Wyckoff Method in conjunction with Godmode and Stochastic RSI indicators for many more crypto currency pairs besides BTCUSD.
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November 08, 2017, 09:41:04 AM
 #5315

4 - Day TF With Indicators:


Follow me on Trading View for excellent signals in Bitcoin/US dollar - Bitstamp - https://www.tradingview.com/u/ProwdClown/.  Will be on a paid subscription website soon with trading signals and technical education using Wyckoff Method in conjunction with Godmode and Stochastic RSI indicators for many more crypto currency pairs besides BTCUSD.
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November 08, 2017, 11:03:16 AM
 #5316

Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #1:



Link to "some" of his teachings:http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method

One section Per that article in the previous link:

PSY—preliminary supply, where large interests begin to unload shares in quantity after a pronounced up-move. Volume expands and price spread widens, signaling that a change in trend may be approaching.

BC—buying climax, during which there are often marked increases in volume and price spread. The force of buying reaches a climax, and heavy or urgent buying by the public is being filled by professional interests at prices near a top. A BC often occurs coincident with a great earnings report or other good news, since the large operators require huge demand from the public to sell their shares without depressing the stock price.

AR—automatic reaction. With intense buying substantially diminished after the BC and heavy supply continuing, an AR takes place. The low of this selloff helps define the lower boundary of the distribution TR.

ST—secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the BC to test the demand/supply balance at these price levels. If a top is to be confirmed, supply will outweigh demand, and volume and spread should decrease as price approaches the resistance area of the BC. A ST may take the form of an upthrust (UT), in which price moves above the resistance represented by the BC and possibly other STs, then quickly reverses to close below resistance. After a UT, price often tests the lower boundary of the TR.

SOW—sign of weakness, observable as a down-move to (or slightly past) the lower boundary of the TR, usually occurring on increased spread and volume. The AR and the initial SOW(s) indicate a change of character in the price action of the stock: supply is now dominant.

LPSY—last point of supply. After testing support on a SOW, a feeble rally on narrow spread shows that the market is having considerable difficulty advancing. This inability to rally may be due to weak demand, substantial supply or both. LPSYs represent exhaustion of demand and the last waves of large operators’ distribution before markdown begins in earnest.

UTAD—upthrust after distribution. A UTAD is the distributional counterpart to the spring and terminal shakeout in the accumulation TR. It occurs in the latter stages of the TR and provides a definitive test of new demand after a breakout above TR resistance. Analogous to springs and shakeouts, a UTAD is not a required structural element: the TR in Distribution Schematic #1 contains a UTAD, while the TR in Distribution Schematic #2 does not.




Phase A: Phase A in a distribution TR marks the stopping of the prior uptrend. Up to this point, demand has been dominant and the first significant evidence of supply entering the market is provided by preliminary supply (PSY) and the buying climax (BC). These events are usually followed by an automatic reaction (AR) and then a secondary test (ST) of the BC, often upon diminished volume. However, the uptrend may also terminate without climactic action, instead demonstrating exhaustion of demand with decreasing spread and volume, and with less upward progress made on each rally before significant supply emerges.

In a redistribution TR within a larger downtrend, phase A may look more like the start of an accumulation TR (e.g., with climactic price and volume action to the downside). However, phases B through E of a re-distribution TR can be analyzed in a similar manner to the distribution TR at the market top.

Phase B: The function of phase B is to build a cause in preparation for a new downtrend. During this time, institutions and large professional interests are disposing of their long inventory and initiating short positions in anticipation of the next markdown. The points about phase B in distribution are similar to those made for phase B in accumulation, except that the large interests are net sellers of shares as the TR evolves, with the goal of exhausting as much of the remaining demand as possible. This process leaves clues that the supply/demand balance has tilted toward supply instead of demand. For instance, SOWs are usually accompanied by significantly increased spread and volume to the downside.

Phase C: In distribution, phase C may reveal itself via an upthrust (UT) or UTAD. As noted above, a UT is the opposite of a spring. It is a price move above TR resistance that quickly reverses and closes in the TR. This is a test of the remaining demand. It is also a bull trap—it appears to signal the resumption of the uptrend but in reality is intended to “wrong-foot” uninformed break-out traders. A UT or UTAD allows large interests to mislead the public about the future trend direction and to sell additional shares at elevated prices to such break-out traders and investors before the markdown begins. In addition, a UTAD may induce smaller traders in short positions to cover and surrender their shares to the larger interests who have engineered this move.

Aggressive traders may wish to initiate short positions after a UT or UTAD. The risk/reward ratio is often quite favorable. However, the “smart money” repeatedly stops out traders who initiate such short positions with one UT after another, so it is often safer to wait until phase D and an LPSY.

Often demand is so weak in a distribution TR that price does not reach the level of the BC or initial ST. In this case, phase C's test of demand may be represented by a UT of a lower high within the TR.

Phase D: Phase D arrives after the tests in phase C show us the last gasps of demand. During phase D, price travels to or through TR support. The evidence that supply is clearly dominant increases either with a clear break of support or with a decline below the mid-point of the TR after a UT or UTAD. There are often multiple weak rallies within phase D; these LPSYs represent excellent opportunities to initiate or add to profitable short positions. Anyone still in a long position during phase D is asking for trouble.

Phase E: Phase E depicts the unfolding of the downtrend; the stock leaves the TR and supply is in control. Once TR support is broken on a major SOW, this breakdown is often tested with a rally that fails at or near support. This also represents a high-probability opportunity to sell short. Subsequent rallies during the markdown are usually feeble. Traders who have taken short positions can trail their stops as price declines. After a significant down-move, climactic action may signal the beginning of a re-distribution TR or of accumulation.


I'll stop posting some of it's writings to keep from spamming the thread too much.  Only wanted to provide enough to get you interested.

Follow me on Trading View for excellent signals in Bitcoin/US dollar - Bitstamp - https://www.tradingview.com/u/ProwdClown/.  Will be on a paid subscription website soon with trading signals and technical education using Wyckoff Method in conjunction with Godmode and Stochastic RSI indicators for many more crypto currency pairs besides BTCUSD.
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November 08, 2017, 07:16:08 PM
 #5317

https://www.coindesk.com/2x-called-off-bitcoin-hard-fork-suspended-lack-consensus/
2x Called Off: Bitcoin Hard Fork Suspended for Lack of Consensus

How will this event affect Vanga's forecasts?

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WALLET




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ft73
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November 08, 2017, 09:17:57 PM
 #5318

https://www.coindesk.com/2x-called-off-bitcoin-hard-fork-suspended-lack-consensus/
2x Called Off: Bitcoin Hard Fork Suspended for Lack of Consensus

How will this event affect Vanga's forecasts?

You're wrong.
It's actually "Vanga's" forecasts driving events.

He's like Chuck Norris.
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November 08, 2017, 11:01:50 PM
 #5319

Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #1:



Link to "some" of his teachings:http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method

One section Per that article in the previous link:

PSY—preliminary supply, where large interests begin to unload shares in quantity after a pronounced up-move. Volume expands and price spread widens, signaling that a change in trend may be approaching.

BC—buying climax, during which there are often marked increases in volume and price spread. The force of buying reaches a climax, and heavy or urgent buying by the public is being filled by professional interests at prices near a top. A BC often occurs coincident with a great earnings report or other good news, since the large operators require huge demand from the public to sell their shares without depressing the stock price.

AR—automatic reaction. With intense buying substantially diminished after the BC and heavy supply continuing, an AR takes place. The low of this selloff helps define the lower boundary of the distribution TR.

ST—secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the BC to test the demand/supply balance at these price levels. If a top is to be confirmed, supply will outweigh demand, and volume and spread should decrease as price approaches the resistance area of the BC. A ST may take the form of an upthrust (UT), in which price moves above the resistance represented by the BC and possibly other STs, then quickly reverses to close below resistance. After a UT, price often tests the lower boundary of the TR.

SOW—sign of weakness, observable as a down-move to (or slightly past) the lower boundary of the TR, usually occurring on increased spread and volume. The AR and the initial SOW(s) indicate a change of character in the price action of the stock: supply is now dominant.

LPSY—last point of supply. After testing support on a SOW, a feeble rally on narrow spread shows that the market is having considerable difficulty advancing. This inability to rally may be due to weak demand, substantial supply or both. LPSYs represent exhaustion of demand and the last waves of large operators’ distribution before markdown begins in earnest.

UTAD—upthrust after distribution. A UTAD is the distributional counterpart to the spring and terminal shakeout in the accumulation TR. It occurs in the latter stages of the TR and provides a definitive test of new demand after a breakout above TR resistance. Analogous to springs and shakeouts, a UTAD is not a required structural element: the TR in Distribution Schematic #1 contains a UTAD, while the TR in Distribution Schematic #2 does not.




Phase A: Phase A in a distribution TR marks the stopping of the prior uptrend. Up to this point, demand has been dominant and the first significant evidence of supply entering the market is provided by preliminary supply (PSY) and the buying climax (BC). These events are usually followed by an automatic reaction (AR) and then a secondary test (ST) of the BC, often upon diminished volume. However, the uptrend may also terminate without climactic action, instead demonstrating exhaustion of demand with decreasing spread and volume, and with less upward progress made on each rally before significant supply emerges.

In a redistribution TR within a larger downtrend, phase A may look more like the start of an accumulation TR (e.g., with climactic price and volume action to the downside). However, phases B through E of a re-distribution TR can be analyzed in a similar manner to the distribution TR at the market top.

Phase B: The function of phase B is to build a cause in preparation for a new downtrend. During this time, institutions and large professional interests are disposing of their long inventory and initiating short positions in anticipation of the next markdown. The points about phase B in distribution are similar to those made for phase B in accumulation, except that the large interests are net sellers of shares as the TR evolves, with the goal of exhausting as much of the remaining demand as possible. This process leaves clues that the supply/demand balance has tilted toward supply instead of demand. For instance, SOWs are usually accompanied by significantly increased spread and volume to the downside.

Phase C: In distribution, phase C may reveal itself via an upthrust (UT) or UTAD. As noted above, a UT is the opposite of a spring. It is a price move above TR resistance that quickly reverses and closes in the TR. This is a test of the remaining demand. It is also a bull trap—it appears to signal the resumption of the uptrend but in reality is intended to “wrong-foot” uninformed break-out traders. A UT or UTAD allows large interests to mislead the public about the future trend direction and to sell additional shares at elevated prices to such break-out traders and investors before the markdown begins. In addition, a UTAD may induce smaller traders in short positions to cover and surrender their shares to the larger interests who have engineered this move.

Aggressive traders may wish to initiate short positions after a UT or UTAD. The risk/reward ratio is often quite favorable. However, the “smart money” repeatedly stops out traders who initiate such short positions with one UT after another, so it is often safer to wait until phase D and an LPSY.

Often demand is so weak in a distribution TR that price does not reach the level of the BC or initial ST. In this case, phase C's test of demand may be represented by a UT of a lower high within the TR.

Phase D: Phase D arrives after the tests in phase C show us the last gasps of demand. During phase D, price travels to or through TR support. The evidence that supply is clearly dominant increases either with a clear break of support or with a decline below the mid-point of the TR after a UT or UTAD. There are often multiple weak rallies within phase D; these LPSYs represent excellent opportunities to initiate or add to profitable short positions. Anyone still in a long position during phase D is asking for trouble.

Phase E: Phase E depicts the unfolding of the downtrend; the stock leaves the TR and supply is in control. Once TR support is broken on a major SOW, this breakdown is often tested with a rally that fails at or near support. This also represents a high-probability opportunity to sell short. Subsequent rallies during the markdown are usually feeble. Traders who have taken short positions can trail their stops as price declines. After a significant down-move, climactic action may signal the beginning of a re-distribution TR or of accumulation.


I'll stop posting some of it's writings to keep from spamming the thread too much.  Only wanted to provide enough to get you interested.


Thanks for sharing

 
 

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exstasie
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November 08, 2017, 11:20:30 PM
 #5320

I find in interested that masterluc see's the exponential trend but can't express it with elliott wave theory.

On the scale of the historic/primary count, it's impossible. Day-to-day or even week-to-week price movements can be too granular.

And if you'll recall, Lucif did attempt to draw a wave count a couple months back, predicting that we might fall to the lower $2000s in a local Wave 4. I believe that count was wrong and that we need to see considerably more consolidation (months of sideways congestion) before attempting to draw a Wave 4 onto the chart.

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