Analysis

[gentlemand]

I imagine that you are basing that on the next halvening and also merely that kind of time frame gives bitcoin enough time to develop, expand, and perhaps prove itself on a more "spreading to the populace" basis?

Halvening of course, but I expect most of the crap that's blighted Bitcoin over the last few years to be resolved, or ignored, by then.

That goes for proper regulatory clarity, decreased media stupidity, scaling to be on its way to being settled and the traditional agitators mad or broke by that point. The weight of normal people and deeper pockets will be enough to drown out the people on the fringes who currently are too loud.

No doubt there'll be other drama, but the current batch will largely be over.

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[JayJuanGee]

I imagine that you are basing that on the next halvening and also merely that kind of time frame gives bitcoin enough time to develop, expand, and perhaps prove itself on a more "spreading to the populace" basis?

Halvening of course, but I expect most of the crap that's blighted Bitcoin over the last few years to be resolved, or ignored, by then.

That goes for proper regulatory clarity, decreased media stupidity, scaling to be on its way to being settled and the traditional agitators mad or broke by that point. The weight of normal people and deeper pockets will be enough to drown out the people on the fringes who currently are too loud.

No doubt there'll be other drama, but the current batch will largely be over.

I don't want to be insulting to you or your position, but really?  That seems so pie in the sky to believe that drama is going to end any time soon, whether it be from the incumbent drama makers or new ones. 

Don't get me wrong, I do kind of agree with your overall assessment that 2020 could be a decent time frame for bitcoin to really prove itself - but not for the seemingly "no more drama from incumbent drama-makers" that you seem to ascribe.

I don't want to go on and on about this point, but let's just say hypothetically that Ver and Wu and Wright and some of the other BIG blocker attack on bitcoin nutjobs are completely discredited and broken financially and psychologically (which is pie in the sky in and of itself), there are plenty of other potential deep pocket players who can move in and out of those attack on bitcoin positions, causing drama, disinformation and attempts at instability... so yeah, maybe bitcoin is going to surge and move on beyond the bullshit drama and attacks, but I doubt that such moving on is going to be a product of no more attacks and fairly land living happily ever after, but instead likely to be a demonstration that bitcoin remains resilient inspite of the various attacks and the ongoing creativity of attacks and the ongoing increased persistency of such attacks - and peeps gonna largely see through this (whether broad base of regular population peeps but also smart money is also gonna likely see past the attacks, too... but such seeing past does not just happen, it takes time and a process and we are going to have to suffer through ongoing volatility, drama, uncertainty and disinformation.. that is the part and parcel of a disruptive technology, such as bitcoin)

[windjc]

I imagine that you are basing that on the next halvening and also merely that kind of time frame gives bitcoin enough time to develop, expand, and perhaps prove itself on a more "spreading to the populace" basis?

Halvening of course, but I expect most of the crap that's blighted Bitcoin over the last few years to be resolved, or ignored, by then.

That goes for proper regulatory clarity, decreased media stupidity, scaling to be on its way to being settled and the traditional agitators mad or broke by that point. The weight of normal people and deeper pockets will be enough to drown out the people on the fringes who currently are too loud.

No doubt there'll be other drama, but the current batch will largely be over.

I don't want to be insulting to you or your position, but really?  That seems so pie in the sky to believe that drama is going to end any time soon, whether it be from the incumbent drama makers or new ones. 

Don't get me wrong, I do kind of agree with your overall assessment that 2020 could be a decent time frame for bitcoin to really prove itself - but not for the seemingly "no more drama from incumbent drama-makers" that you seem to ascribe.

I don't want to go on and on about this point, but let's just say hypothetically that Ver and Wu and Wright and some of the other BIG blocker attack on bitcoin nutjobs are completely discredited and broken financially and psychologically (which is pie in the sky in and of itself), there are plenty of other potential deep pocket players who can move in and out of those attack on bitcoin positions, causing drama, disinformation and attempts at instability... so yeah, maybe bitcoin is going to surge and move on beyond the bullshit drama and attacks, but I doubt that such moving on is going to be a product of no more attacks and fairly land living happily ever after, but instead likely to be a demonstration that bitcoin remains resilient inspite of the various attacks and the ongoing creativity of attacks and the ongoing increased persistency of such attacks - and peeps gonna largely see through this (whether broad base of regular population peeps but also smart money is also gonna likely see past the attacks, too... but such seeing past does not just happen, it takes time and a process and we are going to have to suffer through ongoing volatility, drama, uncertainty and disinformation.. that is the part and parcel of a disruptive technology, such as bitcoin)

Fundamentals aside, if we are in a historic 3, then the timeframes can be quite long and up to another 1100 days or so.

I agree, I doubt that bitcoin will cease to be the center of drama anytime soon. However, the more regulations that allow retirement and traditional investment money to flow into bitcoin, could certainly be a main catalyst for a rise to six figures.

[gentlemand]

Don't get me wrong, I do kind of agree with your overall assessment that 2020 could be a decent time frame for bitcoin to really prove itself - but not for the seemingly "no more drama from incumbent drama-makers" that you seem to ascribe.

Of course there'll still be drama, but the drama that's worked up until this point has been Bitcoin's imminent demise. People STILL believe that now despite everything.

That seemed more than possible at a $200 doldrum. It's still just about small enough for things like ETH and BCH to convince enough people that they're going to eat BTC's lunch.

If it's 5-10-20x bigger by then for starters there's no way a pretender can get anywhere close to flippening, there'll be that many more people involved and invested. China is done and dusted for now at least. Places like the US will be compelled to clarify where it all stands.

Bitcoin will be entrenched deeper in every possible way. You'll still be able to scare people but not in the full drama queen mode that works now.

It might be like comparing Apple in the late 90s to today. Back then it could've gone either way which gave certain fears to play on. These days the same fears are inconceivable.

[Millionero]

Let's please stay focused on the subject of Masterluc's predictions.

[Cherylstar86]

Let's please stay focused on the subject of Masterluc's predictions.

Definitely being focused is good but not all situations tou can rely always on predictions. The good predictions is more advantage to always hear nowdays, and for sure bitcoin is very promising and progressive as it always generate good results due to demand that's highly arising. For now it's good to wait than to sell and all I can advise is patiencw rather than panic.

[dmwardjr]

My current thoughts on BTCUSD:

Link to more details of what's pictured:  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/CCJdDKdE-BTCUSD-STAMP-Decided-to-Create-a-New-Publication-The-other/

[Odalv]

I'm sorry to inform you, than Lucif(Masterluc) was always bitcoin bear. And he extinct.
"BitcoinVanga" is allways bullish on Bitcoin. He(Vanga) is not your prophet(same person). You are wrong.

[btc4lifer]

I find in interested that masterluc see's the exponential trend but can't express it with elliott wave theory.

[RoadTrain]

By him btc will drive to 9000$ untill fork,than will be big correct,after correct btc may goes to 14 k but it will take months,long time period

I see from your history that you're Polish.  I guess you have some facility with Russian.
That thing about substituting under the hamster shorts:  I sounds like very slangy Russian.  Are you familiar with that saying?
 Пoд шopт xoмячьё видимo пoдcтaвляeтe.
It's incredibly funny when translated literally to English.  But what does it mean?

Xoмяк - hamster - inexperienced trader.
пoдcтaвлять - to set up - to trick someone in order to make them do something.

So, the translation is:

It seems like you are setting up hamsters to go short.

Whatever that means in the context.

[dmwardjr]

Update on the 2 Day TF:

I'm only posting to stir up conversation.  This is only my opinion and I'm the type that when I give an opinion it's, "I'm Sticking To It."  Then, try to get others to offer their thoughts [While investing same or more effort as I've put into it -[not bragging; only encouragement].]

Thread:  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/CCJdDKdE-BTCUSD-STAMP-Decided-to-Create-a-New-Publication-The-other/




7 Day TF: With Indicators:

[dmwardjr]

4 - Day TF With Indicators:

[dmwardjr]

Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #1:



Link to "some" of his teachings:http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method

One section Per that article in the previous link:

PSY—preliminary supply, where large interests begin to unload shares in quantity after a pronounced up-move. Volume expands and price spread widens, signaling that a change in trend may be approaching.

BC—buying climax, during which there are often marked increases in volume and price spread. The force of buying reaches a climax, and heavy or urgent buying by the public is being filled by professional interests at prices near a top. A BC often occurs coincident with a great earnings report or other good news, since the large operators require huge demand from the public to sell their shares without depressing the stock price.

AR—automatic reaction. With intense buying substantially diminished after the BC and heavy supply continuing, an AR takes place. The low of this selloff helps define the lower boundary of the distribution TR.

ST—secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the BC to test the demand/supply balance at these price levels. If a top is to be confirmed, supply will outweigh demand, and volume and spread should decrease as price approaches the resistance area of the BC. A ST may take the form of an upthrust (UT), in which price moves above the resistance represented by the BC and possibly other STs, then quickly reverses to close below resistance. After a UT, price often tests the lower boundary of the TR.

SOW—sign of weakness, observable as a down-move to (or slightly past) the lower boundary of the TR, usually occurring on increased spread and volume. The AR and the initial SOW(s) indicate a change of character in the price action of the stock: supply is now dominant.

LPSY—last point of supply. After testing support on a SOW, a feeble rally on narrow spread shows that the market is having considerable difficulty advancing. This inability to rally may be due to weak demand, substantial supply or both. LPSYs represent exhaustion of demand and the last waves of large operators’ distribution before markdown begins in earnest.

UTAD—upthrust after distribution. A UTAD is the distributional counterpart to the spring and terminal shakeout in the accumulation TR. It occurs in the latter stages of the TR and provides a definitive test of new demand after a breakout above TR resistance. Analogous to springs and shakeouts, a UTAD is not a required structural element: the TR in Distribution Schematic #1 contains a UTAD, while the TR in Distribution Schematic #2 does not.



Phase A: Phase A in a distribution TR marks the stopping of the prior uptrend. Up to this point, demand has been dominant and the first significant evidence of supply entering the market is provided by preliminary supply (PSY) and the buying climax (BC). These events are usually followed by an automatic reaction (AR) and then a secondary test (ST) of the BC, often upon diminished volume. However, the uptrend may also terminate without climactic action, instead demonstrating exhaustion of demand with decreasing spread and volume, and with less upward progress made on each rally before significant supply emerges.

In a redistribution TR within a larger downtrend, phase A may look more like the start of an accumulation TR (e.g., with climactic price and volume action to the downside). However, phases B through E of a re-distribution TR can be analyzed in a similar manner to the distribution TR at the market top.

Phase B: The function of phase B is to build a cause in preparation for a new downtrend. During this time, institutions and large professional interests are disposing of their long inventory and initiating short positions in anticipation of the next markdown. The points about phase B in distribution are similar to those made for phase B in accumulation, except that the large interests are net sellers of shares as the TR evolves, with the goal of exhausting as much of the remaining demand as possible. This process leaves clues that the supply/demand balance has tilted toward supply instead of demand. For instance, SOWs are usually accompanied by significantly increased spread and volume to the downside.

Phase C: In distribution, phase C may reveal itself via an upthrust (UT) or UTAD. As noted above, a UT is the opposite of a spring. It is a price move above TR resistance that quickly reverses and closes in the TR. This is a test of the remaining demand. It is also a bull trap—it appears to signal the resumption of the uptrend but in reality is intended to “wrong-foot” uninformed break-out traders. A UT or UTAD allows large interests to mislead the public about the future trend direction and to sell additional shares at elevated prices to such break-out traders and investors before the markdown begins. In addition, a UTAD may induce smaller traders in short positions to cover and surrender their shares to the larger interests who have engineered this move.

Aggressive traders may wish to initiate short positions after a UT or UTAD. The risk/reward ratio is often quite favorable. However, the “smart money” repeatedly stops out traders who initiate such short positions with one UT after another, so it is often safer to wait until phase D and an LPSY.

Often demand is so weak in a distribution TR that price does not reach the level of the BC or initial ST. In this case, phase C's test of demand may be represented by a UT of a lower high within the TR.

Phase D: Phase D arrives after the tests in phase C show us the last gasps of demand. During phase D, price travels to or through TR support. The evidence that supply is clearly dominant increases either with a clear break of support or with a decline below the mid-point of the TR after a UT or UTAD. There are often multiple weak rallies within phase D; these LPSYs represent excellent opportunities to initiate or add to profitable short positions. Anyone still in a long position during phase D is asking for trouble.

Phase E: Phase E depicts the unfolding of the downtrend; the stock leaves the TR and supply is in control. Once TR support is broken on a major SOW, this breakdown is often tested with a rally that fails at or near support. This also represents a high-probability opportunity to sell short. Subsequent rallies during the markdown are usually feeble. Traders who have taken short positions can trail their stops as price declines. After a significant down-move, climactic action may signal the beginning of a re-distribution TR or of accumulation.

I'll stop posting some of it's writings to keep from spamming the thread too much.  Only wanted to provide enough to get you interested.

[Andergriff]

https://www.coindesk.com/2x-called-off-bitcoin-hard-fork-suspended-lack-consensus/
2x Called Off: Bitcoin Hard Fork Suspended for Lack of Consensus

How will this event affect Vanga's forecasts?

[ft73]

https://www.coindesk.com/2x-called-off-bitcoin-hard-fork-suspended-lack-consensus/
2x Called Off: Bitcoin Hard Fork Suspended for Lack of Consensus

How will this event affect Vanga's forecasts?

You're wrong.
It's actually "Vanga's" forecasts driving events.

He's like Chuck Norris.

[Pab]

Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #1:



Link to "some" of his teachings:http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method

One section Per that article in the previous link:

PSY—preliminary supply, where large interests begin to unload shares in quantity after a pronounced up-move. Volume expands and price spread widens, signaling that a change in trend may be approaching.

BC—buying climax, during which there are often marked increases in volume and price spread. The force of buying reaches a climax, and heavy or urgent buying by the public is being filled by professional interests at prices near a top. A BC often occurs coincident with a great earnings report or other good news, since the large operators require huge demand from the public to sell their shares without depressing the stock price.

AR—automatic reaction. With intense buying substantially diminished after the BC and heavy supply continuing, an AR takes place. The low of this selloff helps define the lower boundary of the distribution TR.

ST—secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the BC to test the demand/supply balance at these price levels. If a top is to be confirmed, supply will outweigh demand, and volume and spread should decrease as price approaches the resistance area of the BC. A ST may take the form of an upthrust (UT), in which price moves above the resistance represented by the BC and possibly other STs, then quickly reverses to close below resistance. After a UT, price often tests the lower boundary of the TR.

SOW—sign of weakness, observable as a down-move to (or slightly past) the lower boundary of the TR, usually occurring on increased spread and volume. The AR and the initial SOW(s) indicate a change of character in the price action of the stock: supply is now dominant.

LPSY—last point of supply. After testing support on a SOW, a feeble rally on narrow spread shows that the market is having considerable difficulty advancing. This inability to rally may be due to weak demand, substantial supply or both. LPSYs represent exhaustion of demand and the last waves of large operators’ distribution before markdown begins in earnest.

UTAD—upthrust after distribution. A UTAD is the distributional counterpart to the spring and terminal shakeout in the accumulation TR. It occurs in the latter stages of the TR and provides a definitive test of new demand after a breakout above TR resistance. Analogous to springs and shakeouts, a UTAD is not a required structural element: the TR in Distribution Schematic #1 contains a UTAD, while the TR in Distribution Schematic #2 does not.



Phase A: Phase A in a distribution TR marks the stopping of the prior uptrend. Up to this point, demand has been dominant and the first significant evidence of supply entering the market is provided by preliminary supply (PSY) and the buying climax (BC). These events are usually followed by an automatic reaction (AR) and then a secondary test (ST) of the BC, often upon diminished volume. However, the uptrend may also terminate without climactic action, instead demonstrating exhaustion of demand with decreasing spread and volume, and with less upward progress made on each rally before significant supply emerges.

In a redistribution TR within a larger downtrend, phase A may look more like the start of an accumulation TR (e.g., with climactic price and volume action to the downside). However, phases B through E of a re-distribution TR can be analyzed in a similar manner to the distribution TR at the market top.

Phase B: The function of phase B is to build a cause in preparation for a new downtrend. During this time, institutions and large professional interests are disposing of their long inventory and initiating short positions in anticipation of the next markdown. The points about phase B in distribution are similar to those made for phase B in accumulation, except that the large interests are net sellers of shares as the TR evolves, with the goal of exhausting as much of the remaining demand as possible. This process leaves clues that the supply/demand balance has tilted toward supply instead of demand. For instance, SOWs are usually accompanied by significantly increased spread and volume to the downside.

Phase C: In distribution, phase C may reveal itself via an upthrust (UT) or UTAD. As noted above, a UT is the opposite of a spring. It is a price move above TR resistance that quickly reverses and closes in the TR. This is a test of the remaining demand. It is also a bull trap—it appears to signal the resumption of the uptrend but in reality is intended to “wrong-foot” uninformed break-out traders. A UT or UTAD allows large interests to mislead the public about the future trend direction and to sell additional shares at elevated prices to such break-out traders and investors before the markdown begins. In addition, a UTAD may induce smaller traders in short positions to cover and surrender their shares to the larger interests who have engineered this move.

Aggressive traders may wish to initiate short positions after a UT or UTAD. The risk/reward ratio is often quite favorable. However, the “smart money” repeatedly stops out traders who initiate such short positions with one UT after another, so it is often safer to wait until phase D and an LPSY.

Often demand is so weak in a distribution TR that price does not reach the level of the BC or initial ST. In this case, phase C's test of demand may be represented by a UT of a lower high within the TR.

Phase D: Phase D arrives after the tests in phase C show us the last gasps of demand. During phase D, price travels to or through TR support. The evidence that supply is clearly dominant increases either with a clear break of support or with a decline below the mid-point of the TR after a UT or UTAD. There are often multiple weak rallies within phase D; these LPSYs represent excellent opportunities to initiate or add to profitable short positions. Anyone still in a long position during phase D is asking for trouble.

Phase E: Phase E depicts the unfolding of the downtrend; the stock leaves the TR and supply is in control. Once TR support is broken on a major SOW, this breakdown is often tested with a rally that fails at or near support. This also represents a high-probability opportunity to sell short. Subsequent rallies during the markdown are usually feeble. Traders who have taken short positions can trail their stops as price declines. After a significant down-move, climactic action may signal the beginning of a re-distribution TR or of accumulation.

I'll stop posting some of it's writings to keep from spamming the thread too much.  Only wanted to provide enough to get you interested.

Thanks for sharing

[exstasie]

I find in interested that masterluc see's the exponential trend but can't express it with elliott wave theory.

On the scale of the historic/primary count, it's impossible. Day-to-day or even week-to-week price movements can be too granular.

And if you'll recall, Lucif did attempt to draw a wave count a couple months back, predicting that we might fall to the lower $2000s in a local Wave 4. I believe that count was wrong and that we need to see considerably more consolidation (months of sideways congestion) before attempting to draw a Wave 4 onto the chart.

[masterluc]

Hi. We approach final phase of this 4yr of waiting. Thanks for cross postings.

I didnt beleived but knew.

Bitcoin borned new universe where time counted in blocks. And it is only Level 1 of new financial system OSI model. Are you concerned in block size? Then you should know that Ethernet has Maximum Transfer Unit of a packet of only 1500 bytes. But TCP/IP doesnt care about this. Long live Lightening!

[dmwardjr]

Thanks for sharing

Sure, appreciate others sharing as well.

The "Age of Information," Hey?  ;-)

An update mandatory since recent developments.  Just as suggested with the Black text bubble and the aqua blue circles I pointed out in regards to a repeated pattern in a previous post.  Looks like it did leg up a wee bit.  Is it done yet?  Not sure... Would have to go to lower TF.  Anyway, here's the much needed update WITHOUT INDICATORS / ONLY FIBS and a little Wyckoff.

[birr]

Hi. We approach final phase of this 4yr of waiting. Thanks for cross postings.

I didnt beleived but knew.

Bitcoin borned new universe where time counted in blocks. And it is only Level 1 of new financial system OSI model. Are you concerned in block size? Then you should know that Ethernet has Maximum Transfer Unit of a packet of only 1500 bytes. But TCP/IP doesnt care about this. Long live Lightening!

Thanks for coming back.  It's been a long time!