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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 940774 times)
Tzupy
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March 09, 2018, 03:18:55 PM
Merited by STT (1)
 #5901

The market is oversold, so IMO a local bottom is in or will be in tomorrow, unless there's other unknown reason than TA for the dumping.
Daily MACD just crossed into negative, but this isn't too bearish if if will recover soon. On the contrary, it could provide a good entry point when it will cross back into positive.
I am expecting the market to build a triangle, that could take about a month to resolve up or down. If up, then slowly moving (at first) towards ~30 k$.
If it will break down, then probably we'll see a final bottom around 5,000 $.

Did you use RSI when you said "market is oversold" - because RSI hitting 20 doesn't mean it's goin back up immediately. It could be there for weeks

In the 24h and 12h time frames, the market is oversold. In BTC trading, unless a bear market is confirmed, it doesn't stay oversold for long.


Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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March 09, 2018, 03:35:26 PM
 #5902

The market is oversold, so IMO a local bottom is in or will be in tomorrow, unless there's other unknown reason than TA for the dumping.
Daily MACD just crossed into negative, but this isn't too bearish if if will recover soon. On the contrary, it could provide a good entry point when it will cross back into positive.
I am expecting the market to build a triangle, that could take about a month to resolve up or down. If up, then slowly moving (at first) towards ~30 k$.
If it will break down, then probably we'll see a final bottom around 5,000 $.

Did you use RSI when you said "market is oversold" - because RSI hitting 20 doesn't mean it's goin back up immediately. It could be there for weeks

In the 24h and 12h time frames, the market is oversold. In BTC trading, unless a bear market is confirmed, it doesn't stay oversold for long.





OK - how do you define a BTC bear market. Below 200d avg?
If Mt Gox keeps selling rest of holding at spot market I'm pretty sure it will be a bear market

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March 09, 2018, 05:06:37 PM
Merited by exstasie (2)
 #5903

Latest Lucif:

To me, this representative of the gax with billions of coins for sale - reminds the character with the nickname pirateat40.

I already conducted an analogy of the current market situation with August 2012. Then there was a similar wave and a similar triangle in correction. So, it was then that pirateat40 came out, honestly admitted that his bitcoin trust was a pyramid and threatened to pour a trillion of coins into the market.

Traders bucked and had a good correction. Yes, bitcoin then cost $ 10.

It's amazing how everything moves in a spiral ...

The forecasts have not changed. Kammenty closed.


Mнe этoт пpeдcтaвитeль гoкca c миллиapдaми мoнeт нa пpoдaжy - нaпoминaeт пepcoнaжa c никoм pirateat40.

Я пpoвoдил yжe aнaлoгию тeкyщeй pынoчнoй cитyaции c aвгycтoм 2012. Toгдa былa пoxoжaя вoлнa и пoxoжий тpeyгoльник в кoppeкции. Taк вoт, имeннo тoгдa вылeзлo pirateat40, чecтнo пpизнaлocь, чтo eгo биткoин тpacт пиpaмидa и пpигpoзилo вылить тpиллиoн кoинoв нa pынoк.

Tpeйдepы oбкaкaлиcь и былa xopoшaя кoppeкция. Дa, биткoин тoгдa cтoил $10.

Удивитeльнo кaк вce движeтcя пo cпиpaли...

Пpoгнoзы нe измeнилиcь. Кaммeнты зaкpыты.

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March 09, 2018, 06:57:02 PM
 #5904

The market is oversold, so IMO a local bottom is in or will be in tomorrow, unless there's other unknown reason than TA for the dumping.
Daily MACD just crossed into negative, but this isn't too bearish if if will recover soon. On the contrary, it could provide a good entry point when it will cross back into positive.
I am expecting the market to build a triangle, that could take about a month to resolve up or down. If up, then slowly moving (at first) towards ~30 k$.
If it will break down, then probably we'll see a final bottom around 5,000 $.

Did you use RSI when you said "market is oversold" - because RSI hitting 20 doesn't mean it's goin back up immediately. It could be there for weeks

In the 24h and 12h time frames, the market is oversold. In BTC trading, unless a bear market is confirmed, it doesn't stay oversold for long.



uh? this is a bear market since a long time. didn't you see the crash from 20k? the bubble popped! this is no correction, this is a bear market!
Tzupy
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March 09, 2018, 08:31:40 PM
 #5905

...
OK - how do you define a BTC bear market. Below 200d avg?
If Mt Gox keeps selling rest of holding at spot market I'm pretty sure it will be a bear market

I would believe that we are in a bear market, if weekly MACD would cross into negative, but others may have a different TA.
The MtGox bankruptcy Trustee has no reasons to sell any more bitcoins soon, because he has secured the JPY for the bankruptcy proceedings.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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March 09, 2018, 11:04:28 PM
 #5906

Latest Lucif:

To me, this representative of the gax with billions of coins for sale - reminds the character with the nickname pirateat40.

I already conducted an analogy of the current market situation with August 2012. Then there was a similar wave and a similar triangle in correction. So, it was then that pirateat40 came out, honestly admitted that his bitcoin trust was a pyramid and threatened to pour a trillion of coins into the market.

Traders bucked and had a good correction. Yes, bitcoin then cost $ 10.

It's amazing how everything moves in a spiral ...

The forecasts have not changed. Kammenty closed.

Thank you for this! I agree with him. The bearishness is palpable and the correction is probably not over (which is good because most of us are still accumulating). But this is still looking like a corrective fractal from 2012 or 2013.

...
OK - how do you define a BTC bear market. Below 200d avg?
If Mt Gox keeps selling rest of holding at spot market I'm pretty sure it will be a bear market

I would believe that we are in a bear market, if weekly MACD would cross into negative, but others may have a different TA.

We haven't seen a death cross (200/50MA) on the 1-day chart since 2015. That would definitely indicate a long term winter incoming.

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March 09, 2018, 11:50:52 PM
 #5907

....which is good because most of us are still accumulating....

Not much left to accumulate...

Any buying in the last three months was wrong not because peeps are bad traders, but because there was that character...stupid is as stupid does.

Act2 would be some bulgarian gov dummy starting to do the same (they got like $1-2 bil).
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March 09, 2018, 11:56:57 PM
 #5908

OK - how do you define a BTC bear market. Below 200d avg?
If Mt Gox keeps selling rest of holding at spot market I'm pretty sure it will be a bear market
I dont think thats a good enough reason to call it a bear market, there might be other reasons but that supply coming onto an exchange alone is not enough.
Mt gox was a known negative over 4 years ago. I never heard of people believing these coins had been written off, no longer available. That supply was there, not apparent on an exchange perhaps but its part of the price previously if not the liquidity.

How I would read this news and price move as, mt gox regulators cashing out its assets and would be a temporary change to supply and demand.     It might not be perceivable as a trading signal but its fairly straight forward to call it a buying opportunity.  The weakness cause is known and accounted for, its also temporary and minor to the overall market movement.

Were the silk road coins a far larger amount at the time.   It wasnt really a good reason for the market to go down long term.  An actual shift to confidence has to occur for it to matter in market making terms I think.

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March 10, 2018, 09:39:12 AM
 #5909

Latest Lucif:

To me, this representative of the gax with billions of coins for sale - reminds the character with the nickname pirateat40.

I already conducted an analogy of the current market situation with August 2012. Then there was a similar wave and a similar triangle in correction. So, it was then that pirateat40 came out, honestly admitted that his bitcoin trust was a pyramid and threatened to pour a trillion of coins into the market.

Traders bucked and had a good correction. Yes, bitcoin then cost $ 10.

It's amazing how everything moves in a spiral ...

The forecasts have not changed. Kammenty closed.


Mнe этoт пpeдcтaвитeль гoкca c миллиapдaми мoнeт нa пpoдaжy - нaпoминaeт пepcoнaжa c никoм pirateat40.

Я пpoвoдил yжe aнaлoгию тeкyщeй pынoчнoй cитyaции c aвгycтoм 2012. Toгдa былa пoxoжaя вoлнa и пoxoжий тpeyгoльник в кoppeкции. Taк вoт, имeннo тoгдa вылeзлo pirateat40, чecтнo пpизнaлocь, чтo eгo биткoин тpacт пиpaмидa и пpигpoзилo вылить тpиллиoн кoинoв нa pынoк.

Tpeйдepы oбкaкaлиcь и былa xopoшaя кoppeкция. Дa, биткoин тoгдa cтoил $10.

Удивитeльнo кaк вce движeтcя пo cпиpaли...

Пpoгнoзы нe измeнилиcь. Кaммeнты зaкpыты.



The forecasts have not changed ,,does means that the bitcoin is still on his $100k road?? making a big trianle like  august 2012?

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March 18, 2018, 08:27:46 AM
Merited by exstasie (1)
 #5910

New post and it is bad news:

As that sucks everything went. The scenario I proposed is on the verge of failure. To continue it, the price should immediately turn around. Or to turn sharply around $ 6000.

As we are:
- Under the daily sma200 (punching down)
- Under the weekly sma20
- Under daily sma20
- Under the long-term trend (punching down)

The most sad first and last fact.

This means that when the daily smash of 200 is broken down, the medium-term picture breaks down. And the next support is on the lower historical trend - $ 3000.

A bullish long-term picture breaks when it breaks down $ 3,000.

Taka fucking babies.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/PjYa65fU/

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March 19, 2018, 01:30:26 AM
 #5911

New post and it is bad news:

As that sucks everything went. The scenario I proposed is on the verge of failure. To continue it, the price should immediately turn around. Or to turn sharply around $ 6000.

As we are:
- Under the daily sma200 (punching down)
- Under the weekly sma20
- Under daily sma20
- Under the long-term trend (punching down)

The most sad first and last fact.

This means that when the daily smash of 200 is broken down, the medium-term picture breaks down. And the next support is on the lower historical trend - $ 3000.

A bullish long-term picture breaks when it breaks down $ 3,000.

Taka fucking babies.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/PjYa65fU/

everything is going to sink,including bitcoin ,let us come back 4 years  later when the next halving happens.

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March 19, 2018, 07:05:11 AM
 #5912

New post and it is bad news:

As that sucks everything went. The scenario I proposed is on the verge of failure. To continue it, the price should immediately turn around. Or to turn sharply around $ 6000.

As we are:
- Under the daily sma200 (punching down)
- Under the weekly sma20
- Under daily sma20
- Under the long-term trend (punching down)

The most sad first and last fact.

This means that when the daily smash of 200 is broken down, the medium-term picture breaks down. And the next support is on the lower historical trend - $ 3000.

A bullish long-term picture breaks when it breaks down $ 3,000.

Taka fucking babies.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/PjYa65fU/

everything is going to sink,including bitcoin ,let us come back 4 years  later when the next halving happens.

Not good news, but I am frankly most intrigued by the Google translate "fucking babies"  - anybody fluent in Russian here to help please?
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March 19, 2018, 11:37:51 AM
Merited by CosaNostra (1)
 #5913

We haven't seen a death cross (200/50MA) on the 1-day chart since 2015. That would definitely indicate a long term winter incoming.

The 200 daily moving average is still rising so I dont see this move as long term bearish yet.   It is part of an ongoing correction though, perhaps it moves this strongly because credit was introduced to the market by involvement of consumers and their credit cards.

This was sharply withdrawn leading to a reversal along with other factors.  However there is another dynamic which is not leverage but the reaction to the decline of the US Dollar.  Actual tranmission fees for BTC have fallen greatly and there is an uptrend in there somewhere to be found.   The speculation is where this line resides, I dont agree there is no uptrend just yet.

The current target right now would be the longer term 2017 dynamic which is around 9137 would be your upside target even if bearish medium term thats possible.   A proper decline should confirm the previous uptrend I expect

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CosaNostra
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March 19, 2018, 12:14:57 PM
Merited by STT (1)
 #5914

New post and it is bad news:

As that sucks everything went. The scenario I proposed is on the verge of failure. To continue it, the price should immediately turn around. Or to turn sharply around $ 6000.

As we are:
- Under the daily sma200 (punching down)
- Under the weekly sma20
- Under daily sma20
- Under the long-term trend (punching down)

The most sad first and last fact.

This means that when the daily smash of 200 is broken down, the medium-term picture breaks down. And the next support is on the lower historical trend - $ 3000.

A bullish long-term picture breaks when it breaks down $ 3,000.

Taka fucking babies.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/PjYa65fU/

everything is going to sink,including bitcoin ,let us come back 4 years  later when the next halving happens.

Not good news, but I am frankly most intrigued by the Google translate "fucking babies"  - anybody fluent in Russian here to help please?


Actually that's not Russian, but Ukrainian famous phrase literally meaning "Such [fucking] shit, kids".

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bitcoin_is_here_to_stay_2
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March 19, 2018, 03:38:08 PM
 #5915


Not good news, but I am frankly most intrigued by the Google translate "fucking babies"  - anybody fluent in Russian here to help please?


Actually that's not Russian, but Ukrainian famous phrase literally meaning "Such [fucking] shit, kids".

Thanks!
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March 19, 2018, 04:51:25 PM
Merited by 600watt (1)
 #5916

The market found support lower than I expected, but the bullish scenario is not dead yet. This support will probably be tested tomorrow,
and a bullish scenario needs the test to be followed by strong buys for the next 5 days, reaching 10 k$, then correct and form a triangle.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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March 19, 2018, 08:22:36 PM
 #5917

The market found support lower than I expected, but the bullish scenario is not dead yet. This support will probably be tested tomorrow,
and a bullish scenario needs the test to be followed by strong buys for the next 5 days, reaching 10 k$, then correct and form a triangle.

My god you are completely delusional, did you sell your account? Old tzupy was sharper than that.  We've been in a bear market since months now, there wont be any bullish scenario before price is boring again and we go through a desperation period so market makers can accumulate and we get rid of all the guys who came here to get rich quick.

Right now price is bleeding slowly to keep people in the market until they get desperate and capitulate under 6K.

ML scenario of 3K seems the most appropriate to that effect.

It's possible we go towards 9200 or 10250 in the meantime but it'll just be an opportunity to short and break the 6K bottom with more ease.

megadeth
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March 19, 2018, 08:42:24 PM
 #5918

Sad to see one of the best permabears Tzupy turn bull.

bagholder since 2013
My sig space is not for sale.
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March 19, 2018, 09:34:06 PM
 #5919

The market found support lower than I expected, but the bullish scenario is not dead yet. This support will probably be tested tomorrow,
and a bullish scenario needs the test to be followed by strong buys for the next 5 days, reaching 10 k$, then correct and form a triangle.

My god you are completely delusional, did you sell your account? Old tzupy was sharper than that.  We've been in a bear market since months now, there wont be any bullish scenario before price is boring again and we go through a desperation period so market makers can accumulate and we get rid of all the guys who came here to get rich quick.

Right now price is bleeding slowly to keep people in the market until they get desperate and capitulate under 6K.

ML scenario of 3K seems the most appropriate to that effect.

It's possible we go towards 9200 or 10250 in the meantime but it'll just be an opportunity to short and break the 6K bottom with more ease.



Almost every "trader" is babbling the same shit like you, so I assume you are wrong -> Too many bears -> bullish
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March 19, 2018, 09:47:23 PM
 #5920

The market found support lower than I expected, but the bullish scenario is not dead yet. This support will probably be tested tomorrow,
and a bullish scenario needs the test to be followed by strong buys for the next 5 days, reaching 10 k$, then correct and form a triangle.

My god you are completely delusional, did you sell your account? Old tzupy was sharper than that.  We've been in a bear market since months now, there wont be any bullish scenario before price is boring again and we go through a desperation period so market makers can accumulate and we get rid of all the guys who came here to get rich quick.

Right now price is bleeding slowly to keep people in the market until they get desperate and capitulate under 6K.

ML scenario of 3K seems the most appropriate to that effect.

It's possible we go towards 9200 or 10250 in the meantime but it'll just be an opportunity to short and break the 6K bottom with more ease.



The scenario Tzupy presented resembles the mid-2013 correction in the middle of the bull run from $5 to $1k.

The scenario you are presenting resembles the 2014 capitulation from $1k to $100.

Either scenario is probable. Both are wrong because history may rhyme but doesn't repeat.

Schrodinger's TA.

There is a big difference between 2013/2014 and today. There are 1 to 2 orders of magnitude more of everything: exchanges, market cap, media, alts, regulation, whales, fools.
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