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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 923512 times)
prophetx
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March 28, 2018, 03:59:53 AM
 #5981

price went way higher then it should have - as always...

imho there are 2 scenarios:

1) slow grinding death spiral for at least 12-18 months, capitulation will be in the 1-2k range... then many years to get back to 10k...

2) the same as #1 but the global financial system experiences a system shock, liquidity dries to near nothing momentarily then crypto rockets
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MNDan
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March 28, 2018, 04:54:58 AM
 #5982

price went way higher then it should have - as always...

imho there are 2 scenarios:

1) slow grinding death spiral for at least 12-18 months, capitulation will be in the 1-2k range... then many years to get back to 10k...

2) the same as #1 but the global financial system experiences a system shock, liquidity dries to near nothing momentarily then crypto rockets

Have you ever been right before? Not being a dick - I just can't find any posts where one of your scenarios played out as predicted...
Wekkel
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March 28, 2018, 08:43:07 PM
Merited by MNDan (1)
 #5983

There are many more scenario's, but in bear times most though of scenario's are .... surprisingly .... bearish.

I tend to have a more positive outlook and think that, although price can remain in this zone for a long time, the bullishness is still too strong to warrant a brutal and long bear market towards $2k. In an absolute helicopter view, I consider this a long term 'correction' period as a pause until new ATHs.

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DeepOnion
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mymenace
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March 29, 2018, 12:06:16 PM
 #5984






its just so neat, coooool.


Grin
drays
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March 31, 2018, 04:33:52 PM
 #5985


I agree. Things happen much slower now. We went on a bull run in slow motion and now we are correcting in slow motion. We could still be doing a correction that April '13 did in a matters of days - now its taking months.

Those of us that have been around a long time - I think most will agree the sentiment at the top of this bull run was more bullish than April
13 but less bullish than Nov. 13. I figure this correction will split the difference between the two.

i also have the feeling that the chart movements are slowing down so much, that it is hard to grasp it. funny though that there are people who think movements are speeding up.

Sorry for replying to old post, I am wondering who those people are? I also have such feeling, and would like to read some of their analysis.

... this space is not for rent ...
Gab0
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March 31, 2018, 10:59:04 PM
Merited by Wekkel (1)
 #5986


I agree. Things happen much slower now. We went on a bull run in slow motion and now we are correcting in slow motion. We could still be doing a correction that April '13 did in a matters of days - now its taking months.

Those of us that have been around a long time - I think most will agree the sentiment at the top of this bull run was more bullish than April
13 but less bullish than Nov. 13. I figure this correction will split the difference between the two.

i also have the feeling that the chart movements are slowing down so much, that it is hard to grasp it. funny though that there are people who think movements are speeding up.

Sorry for replying to old post, I am wondering who those people are? I also have such feeling, and would like to read some of their analysis.

Here is someone:



https://twitter.com/CryptoHornHairs/status/972192134915747840
drays
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March 31, 2018, 11:44:37 PM
 #5987

Thanks a lot Gab0!

This lines up with my view, though according to my observations, it actually goes even faster than the analysis above shows. We seem to be in around mid-August 2014 state imho.

Though of course, those charts are only mind games... for me, at least - just a way to entertain oneself during the bear market, as I am not willing to play in it, and don't want to short Bitcoin even if a decline is expected. Not sure how to explain that... to me shorting Bitcoin is unacceptable and is something akin to betrayal. I don't want to play against what I like and what I want to succeed, even if that could be profitable.
Yes, that may be stupid, but that way I feel better Smiley. So the only thing remaining during that market - is to entertain oneself with graphs... Or better - keep oneself busy with unrelated interesting work and forget about crypto for some time.

... this space is not for rent ...
machouno
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April 02, 2018, 12:47:11 PM
Merited by 600watt (1)
 #5988

Кaк я пиcaл, цeнa мoжeт oтcкoчить oт ypoвня ~6000, нapиcoвaв двoйнoe днo. Этo былo бы пacxaльным чyдoм. Texничecки жe цeнa нaxoдитcя в пpoгpeccиpyющeй мeдвeжьeй зoнe, нижe вaжнeйшиx кpивыx, пoтeнциaл пaдeния (тeopeтичecки дo $3000) coвceм eщe нe иcчepпaн. Cитyaция нa Уoлл cтpит тoжe пoкa нe paдyeт.


B дoлгocpoчнoй пepcпeктивe пoкyпaть нa тeкyщиx ypoвняx oчeнь выгoднo я cчитaю.


Кaк-тo тaк.

Google Translate:
As I wrote, the price can rebound from the level of ~ 6000, drawing a double bottom. It would be a Paschal miracle. Technically, however, the price is in the progressing bearish zone, below the most important curves, the fall potential (theoretically up to $ 3000) has not yet been exhausted. The situation on Wall Street is also not encouraging.


In the long run, buying at current levels is very profitable, I believe.


Something like this.
Wekkel
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April 02, 2018, 04:29:12 PM
 #5989

God enough for me. I will just patiently await where this is going.

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DeepOnion
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keystroke
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April 02, 2018, 04:36:52 PM
 #5990

Tempting to use some dry powder to scoop up more coins...

"The difference between a castle and a prison is only a question of who holds the keys."
Tzupy
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April 02, 2018, 06:06:18 PM
 #5991

...
The market was weak and didn't reach the 10 k$ I was hoping for (and more importantly, push the 6h, 12h and 24h MACD higher), and now the correction is worsening the indicators.
I compared the current movements (from 6th February) with those of September 15th - 25th 2017, and if the bullish scenario will still win, the market moves about 6x slower
and should start pumping strongly 5 - 6 days from now (but given the current weakness, the pump could fail). If this fails, then the bearish scenario becomes quite probable.

The triangle didn't even form properly and broke down, oh well...

Bearish scenario: that the whole 20 k$ to 6 k$ correction was wave A, we had the wave B to 12 k$ and now C could reach as low as 3 k$, but I am not convinced yet.
The market is oversold in 12h and 24h time frames, but there are signs of exiting the oversold condition, like the possible (tomorrow?) flip of 6h and 12h PSAR to bullish.
The bid side has also recovered somewhat on both GDAX and Bitfinex, so there is ammo to pump, traders just wait for improved indicators to join a pump.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
windjc
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April 02, 2018, 06:15:48 PM
 #5992

...
The market was weak and didn't reach the 10 k$ I was hoping for (and more importantly, push the 6h, 12h and 24h MACD higher), and now the correction is worsening the indicators.
I compared the current movements (from 6th February) with those of September 15th - 25th 2017, and if the bullish scenario will still win, the market moves about 6x slower
and should start pumping strongly 5 - 6 days from now (but given the current weakness, the pump could fail). If this fails, then the bearish scenario becomes quite probable.

The triangle didn't even form properly and broke down, oh well...

Bearish scenario: that the whole 20 k$ to 6 k$ correction was wave A, we had the wave B to 12 k$ and now C could reach as low as 3 k$, but I am not convinced yet.
The market is oversold in 12h and 24h time frames, but there are signs of exiting the oversold condition, like the possible (tomorrow?) flip of 6h and 12h PSAR to bullish.
The bid side has also recovered somewhat on both GDAX and Bitfinex, so there is ammo to pump, traders just wait for improved indicators to join a pump.

I agree. My spidey sense says that we might have found a local bottom or real soon.
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April 06, 2018, 04:20:09 PM
 #5993

Despite the recovery of the bid side, action remained weak, and some indicators kept worsening, like 12h PSAR flipping to bearish.
Price is still close to the 6h, 12h and 24h lower BB, and if we won't see strong buys soon, the weekly MACD could cross into negative.
Maybe we are just scraping the bottom, or we will see major dumps soon, this will be decided next week.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
marcus_of_augustus
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April 11, 2018, 10:49:00 AM
 #5994

Despite the recovery of the bid side, action remained weak, and some indicators kept worsening, like 12h PSAR flipping to bearish.
Price is still close to the 6h, 12h and 24h lower BB, and if we won't see strong buys soon, the weekly MACD could cross into negative.
Maybe we are just scraping the bottom, or we will see major dumps soon, this will be decided next week.

.... and now?

Tzupy
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April 11, 2018, 05:14:24 PM
 #5995

Despite the recovery of the bid side, action remained weak, and some indicators kept worsening, like 12h PSAR flipping to bearish.
Price is still close to the 6h, 12h and 24h lower BB, and if we won't see strong buys soon, the weekly MACD could cross into negative.
Maybe we are just scraping the bottom, or we will see major dumps soon, this will be decided next week.

.... and now?

Weekly MACD crossed into negative some days ago, but it's not deep yet. If we'll go sideways for long enough, the 12h MACD will be close to cross into positive and a pump could be attempted.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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April 11, 2018, 06:02:57 PM
Merited by ImI (10)
 #5996

So basically up, down, or sideways. I love TA.
exstasie
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April 11, 2018, 09:06:13 PM
Merited by Globb0 (4)
 #5997

So basically up, down, or sideways. I love TA.

I've heard that markets trend 20% of the time. The other 80% of the time, they chop and consolidate. In my experience that's correct. With that in mind, "up, down, or sideways" is the best approach until the market has decisively trapped either bulls or bears on the wrong side of a consolidation. Humans tend to hold through (and double down on) losses, so once a significant trading range is broken, it's worth taking note and following the trend.

We're in the middle of a 2-week consolidation, tight range. There should be gas in the tank once we have a breakout. Fingers crossed for > $7,500 but this is a bearish consolidation until proven otherwise.

harvw
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April 12, 2018, 10:29:43 PM
Last edit: April 12, 2018, 10:40:34 PM by harvw
 #5998

Any updates from masterluc? Does he have a Telegram group?

The beginning of a new era.
DimaKHV
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April 13, 2018, 12:51:38 AM
 #5999

Any updates from masterluc? Does he have a Telegram group?
https://t.me/bitcoin_wanga/7
Bpoдe клин cpaбoтaл!
snowdropfore
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April 13, 2018, 01:37:46 AM
 #6000

what does the new update mean??

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DeepOnion




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