Analysis

[lucas.sev]

I'm glad as well, some great calls there, including the memorable 'I'm afraid we are going to the moon' at 145 breakout

[1713866064]

1713866064

[Tzupy]

A pure bear market of 1 year would be terrible, you guys should think twice before saying that.
From April to July 2013 there were 3 failed bull markets, followed by bear markets that ended in capitulation at 50$,
80$ and 67$, and after that a fully developed bull market was able to grow. So only about 3 months from 266$,
and from the current high prices it may take longer than 3 months. But a pure bear market of 1 year could drive the price to
single digits, and that would be terrible. I hope the upcoming failed bull markets / bear markets won't last longer than 6 months.

[ft73]

Disregard lucif at your peril.

I'm glad he still shares with us.

I'm glad too.

[lucas.sev]

A pure bear market of 1 year would be terrible, you guys should think twice before saying that.
From April to July 2013 there were 3 failed bull markets, followed by bear markets that ended in capitulation at 50$,
80$ and 67$, and after that a fully developed bull market was able to grow. So only about 3 months from 266$,
and from the current high prices it may take longer than 3 months. But a pure bear market of 1 year could drive the price to
single digits, and that would be terrible. I hope the upcoming failed bull markets / bear markets won't last longer than 6 months.

You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means

[RyNinDaCleM]

amazing how pissed people are  

I hope I didn't come around as pissed or ridiculing masterluc or bears in general. I am not pissed, I just have a different opinion. I wouldn't mind a bear market for a year or so,... shakes out the idiots that are in the boat "for the wrong reasons" very effectively.

I agree! And while it's hard to say for sure, where the top is, the end of the cycle is nearing.

For those who don't understand what is being talked about in this thread today:
5 waves up and 3 waves down. Here's a fractal of the 2010/11 rise


Now here is the whole history since Bitcoin' inception.


5 up, 3 down...
5 up, 3 down...
5 up, 3 down...
Back and to the left... Oh wait  

This coming Bear market CAN stop anywhere between the top and the lowest price ever traded. No, I'm not saying that it'll go that low, but a wave 2 (which happens to be the Bear market after the top we are waiting on) can retrace up to 100% of the preceding wave-1 (which is the entire Bitcoin history)

Now, lets see those horns!  

[sumantso]

A pure bear market of 1 year would be terrible, you guys should think twice before saying that.
From April to July 2013 there were 3 failed bull markets, followed by bear markets that ended in capitulation at 50$,
80$ and 67$, and after that a fully developed bull market was able to grow. So only about 3 months from 266$,
and from the current high prices it may take longer than 3 months. But a pure bear market of 1 year could drive the price to
single digits, and that would be terrible. I hope the upcoming failed bull markets / bear markets won't last longer than 6 months.

You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means

hah - great spot

[masterluc]

I know my count misses final sharp move up. But failed hourly sma200 was always unbeatable during bubbles and provided support for bubble EW count. And now it failed and don't want to backup. I assume here count is finished.

[Tzupy]

A pure bear market of 1 year would be terrible, you guys should think twice before saying that.
From April to July 2013 there were 3 failed bull markets, followed by bear markets that ended in capitulation at 50$,
80$ and 67$, and after that a fully developed bull market was able to grow. So only about 3 months from 266$,
and from the current high prices it may take longer than 3 months. But a pure bear market of 1 year could drive the price to
single digits, and that would be terrible. I hope the upcoming failed bull markets / bear markets won't last longer than 6 months.

You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means

I call the very bottom of wave C capitulation. If you have a better term for it, please enlighten me.

[zby]

amazing how pissed people are  

I hope I didn't come around as pissed or ridiculing masterluc or bears in general. I am not pissed, I just have a different opinion. I wouldn't mind a bear market for a year or so,... shakes out the idiots that are in the boat "for the wrong reasons" very effectively.

I agree! And while it's hard to say for sure, where the top is, the end of the cycle is nearing.

For those who don't understand what is being talked about in this thread today:
5 waves up and 3 waves down. Here's a fractal of the 2010/11 rise


Now here is the whole history since Bitcoin' inception.


5 up, 3 down...
5 up, 3 down...
5 up, 3 down...
Back and to the left... Oh wait  

This coming Bear market CAN stop anywhere between the top and the lowest price ever traded. No, I'm not saying that it'll go that low, but a wave 2 (which happens to be the Bear market after the top we are waiting on) can retrace up to 100% of the preceding wave-1 (which is the entire Bitcoin history)

Now, lets see those horns!  

Nice - but my bet is that what you mark 3 and 5 is only i and iii

The waves are just like those leading to 1 only bigger - because we have more people trading and more bitcoins now.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Nice - but my bet is that what you mark 3 and 5 is only i and iii Smiley

The waves are just like those leading to 1 only bigger - because we have more people trading and more bitcoins now.

It is possible! Which is why you don't trade solely based on EW.

[ElectricMucus]

Now here is the whole history since Bitcoin' inception.

Nice, but please post this chart in a new extra thread.

I want to laugh at the hate filled responses!

[accord01]

amazing how pissed people are  

I hope I didn't come around as pissed or ridiculing masterluc or bears in general. I am not pissed, I just have a different opinion. I wouldn't mind a bear market for a year or so,... shakes out the idiots that are in the boat "for the wrong reasons" very effectively.

I agree! And while it's hard to say for sure, where the top is, the end of the cycle is nearing.

For those who don't understand what is being talked about in this thread today:
5 waves up and 3 waves down. Here's a fractal of the 2010/11 rise


Now here is the whole history since Bitcoin' inception.


5 up, 3 down...
5 up, 3 down...
5 up, 3 down...
Back and to the left... Oh wait  

This coming Bear market CAN stop anywhere between the top and the lowest price ever traded. No, I'm not saying that it'll go that low, but a wave 2 (which happens to be the Bear market after the top we are waiting on) can retrace up to 100% of the preceding wave-1 (which is the entire Bitcoin history)

Now, lets see those horns!  

Nice - but my bet is that what you mark 3 and 5 is only i and iii

The waves are just like those leading to 1 only bigger - because we have more people trading and more bitcoins now.

I don't necessarily disagree with this analysis, but wouldn't the fact that MTGOX's cashout issues effect the bottom (as in making the bottom higher than anticipated, because people have money stuck on exchanges and have no choice but to buy back at low prices)

[Chaz]

Forgive my ignorance, but the first pic shows "C" never going below "4"... so could you say ~$500 is the bottom?

[lucas.sev]

Forgive my ignorance, but the first pic shows "C" never going below "4"... so could you say ~$500 is the bottom?

No, he said 'but a wave 2 (which happens to be the Bear market after the top we are waiting on) can retrace up to 100% of the preceding wave-1 (which is the entire Bitcoin history)'

[accord01]

This is what I am kind of seeing, hope it doesn't come to fruition.  For the 30 day charts, double top on both stamp and gox, and a triple top / head and shoulders on BTC china.

[oda.krell]

I know my count misses final sharp move up. But failed hourly sma200 was always unbeatable during bubbles and provided support for bubble EW count. And now it failed and don't want to backup. I assume here count is finished.

Not that I'm feeling particularly bullish right now, but: sma200 was also crossed in May 2011 (price more than doubled afterwards, after a short dip), and even now, in October (though less pronounced than the dip below now).

Meh. I'm still 60% sure we're seeing consolidation rather than a big pop, but that's not exactly a comfortingly high confidence I have  :D

[fontas]

lucif you genius.

Cautious when everyone else is greedy.

You sold the top last bubble, you sell the top this bubble.

One of the best traders out there. I pay my respect to you.

[Ozymandias]

Now here is the whole history since Bitcoin' inception.

Forgive my ignorance, but where is wave v in that graph? I absolutely differ to masterluc and have been a fan of his analysis for a while, but could not the 266 bubble have been said wave v making this top be the historic 3 of 5 and we are just entering wave 4?

[sumantso]

Now here is the whole history since Bitcoin' inception.

Forgive my ignorance, but where is wave v in that graph? I absolutely differ to masterluc and have been a fan of his analysis for a while, but could not the 266 bubble have been said wave v making this top be the historic 3 of 5 and we are just entering wave 4?

Thats what I was thinking too. Another big wave up left.

[wobber]

Now here is the whole history since Bitcoin' inception.

Forgive my ignorance, but where is wave v in that graph? I absolutely differ to masterluc and have been a fan of his analysis for a while, but could not the 266 bubble have been said wave v making this top be the historic 3 of 5 and we are just entering wave 4?

Thats what I was thinking too. Another big wave up left.

Please forgive my ignorance, but why does it have do go so much down? This chart implies sub $10 prices. I doubt this will happen.