Analysis

[Odalv]

I think it should reach $2k-$4k in near future in a final push, especially if it will draw a triangle now 7-14 days long.

But I don't want to take a part in further market actions. I reached all my targets, dreams and so on. And now I cashed out for 80%. Thanks China. Thanks US Senate. Thanks uncle Ben, I like your Franklins in my hands.

I think selling in wave 4 of final historical 5 is not bad. I left 20% coins for final wave.

^

$2k - $4k is far from final push. Final push is $50k+ or ZERO( but Bitcoin is ANTI-fragile).

edit: but 20% is enough to hold.

[1713592064]

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[Odalv]

You don't make extra coins by holding you make extra coins by selling at the right moment and buying back in at the right moment. If you bought say 300 coins at $13.5 as you say and held till now you would only have 300 coins but if you sold at the highs and bought at the lows your accumulation could be infinite. wtf is your trading?

There is something to be said about a person like you who tries to give lessons to another when talking in hindsight.

wtf are you doing in an analysis thread giving advice if your whole strategy revolves around buy and hold anyway?

If you would have read my other posts you would have seen I spotted 1240 as being my sell point which was 100% accurate and I now have more coins than if I hadn't sold and just held per your advice. If I took your advice my wallet would be much thinner.

I was trying to warn you. Usually one MINUTE trader cannot predict $945 - $576  crash (or $75-$1200 bubble). I hope you are well.

[molecular]

Big is relative word )

And "they just press BUY/SELL" is an oversimplification to make towards such a range of sizes.

Great analysis btw. I stand corrected on the part where I said around $800 would be bottom.

[waveaddict]

Because the institutions that I consider big money - like Goldman Sachs - dont even own bitcoin. Yet.

I have different information about GS and Bitcoin.

Ok. So where are we going from here?  Did you call $400 as the bottom of this down cycle? Or are you really holding fiat to 2016?

dude just stop, understand there people will have money and they need to lose a large portion of that money so the market can move on

Ok, I fear i am coming across of some sort of random antagonist in this thread. So let me clarify...

I have read back on all of masterluc's analysis and for the most part its highly impressive, cohesive and has tracked my sentiments much more time than not. So mad respect there.

However, his latest prediction that we are entering a multi-year bear market is based on the EW theory that he is extrapolating on a logarithmic chart since the beginning of BTC on the markets.

Luc's short term predictions are awesome.

But here is what I believe is happening with this long term prediction. First, we have to suppose that the EW theory is the correct theory to judge BTC long term growth chart. It very well may not be. In fact, there is a really good chance that its not. There is a strong argument that the EW theory for BTC and the S-curve adoption graph are incompatible with each other.

So, I think what is happening with masterluc, is that he is stuck to a EW theory. Now that theory says we are going down for a long time. This flies in the face of the adoption curve and what we are seeing in the REAL world with adoption, eco-system, etc. So Luc has to justify a possible scenario that would make this seemingly ridiculous theory seem plausible. So he answers to this that the stock market is a bubble and when that pops it will spiral effect BTC to the downside. Although this statement flies in the face of what we have seen from investment commodities during stock market down turns.

Now, I guess if the entire US system failed then BTC could be down for several years.

But suggesting that the US economy and/or the stock market will create the EW theory scenario is, in my opinion, simply a concoction of masterlucs imagination.

EW theory is a speculative theory which works for every market. The S-curve is not even even in the same category, so there really isn't a strong argument that they are incompatible.

Commodities almost always fall during stock market declines so your second point doesn't really make sense.

I suggest that you take the time to understand market dynamics and EW before you claim that materlucs is imagining a relationship which isn't there.

[windjc]

EW works very good for every market? false. People make false EW readings ALL THE TIME. Even the founder of EW theory says it does not work all the time.

And if you think Gold prices go up when there is confidence in the economy and stock market and goes down during times of fear, then YOU need to read history a little bit more.

[windjc]

I think it should reach $2k-$4k in near future in a final push, especially if it will draw a triangle now 7-14 days long.

But I don't want to take a part in further market actions. I reached all my targets, dreams and so on. And now I cashed out for 80%. Thanks China. Thanks US Senate. Thanks uncle Ben, I like your Franklins in my hands.

I think selling in wave 4 of final historical 5 is not bad. I left 20% coins for final wave.

^

I missed that quote from earlier. Well, if Masterluc is definitely out of bitcoin forever, then I will miss his day to day analysis. Fortunately, being great at short term trends does not preclude knowledge on long term trends. Or, if it does, then I guess we will all see each other at $0 and this thread can be the historical evidence of everything that happened.

[waveaddict]

EW works very good for every market? false. People make false EW readings ALL THE TIME. Even the founder of EW theory says it does not work all the time.

And if you think Gold prices go up when there is confidence in the economy and stock market and go down during times of fear, then YOU need to read history a little bit more.

Making false EW readings does not mean that EW failed. If EW was straight forward and precise, it wouldn't be a theory.

Your second statement isn't even worth a response because you clearly have not looked at a commodity chart in a long time. People flee commodities and stocks and flock towards cash and bonds during market downturns. The only exception would be during a highly inflationary period which we are not in.

[windjc]

EW works very good for every market? false. People make false EW readings ALL THE TIME. Even the founder of EW theory says it does not work all the time.

And if you think Gold prices go up when there is confidence in the economy and stock market and go down during times of fear, then YOU need to read history a little bit more.

Making false EW readings does not mean that EW failed. If EW was straight forward and precise, it wouldn't be a theory.

I'm not even going to respond to your second statement because you clearly have not looked at a commodity chart in a long time. People flee commodities and stocks and flock towards cash and bonds during market downturns. The only exception would be during a highly inflationary period which we are not in.

ORLY? So gold did not go up during the last stock downturn and financial banking crisis? And it hasn't been going down for a while now as the stock market hits ATHs?

I obviously wasn't talking about oil or corn or toothpaste. I was talking about precious metals.

And your explanation of EW not working is priceless. Since it has all these different waves there can be 1500 examples of how it fits or doesn't, leaving us to cherry pick which ones we give it credit for.

But that aside, I ask only this --> if we hit new ATHs for bitcoin within the next year, what does that say about Luc's wave theory?

[waveaddict]

EW works very good for every market? false. People make false EW readings ALL THE TIME. Even the founder of EW theory says it does not work all the time.

And if you think Gold prices go up when there is confidence in the economy and stock market and go down during times of fear, then YOU need to read history a little bit more.

Making false EW readings does not mean that EW failed. If EW was straight forward and precise, it wouldn't be a theory.

I'm not even going to respond to your second statement because you clearly have not looked at a commodity chart in a long time. People flee commodities and stocks and flock towards cash and bonds during market downturns. The only exception would be during a highly inflationary period which we are not in.

ORLY? So gold did not go up during the last stock downturn and financial banking crisis?

No, gold fell from ~1000 to ~650 during the 2008 banking crisis.

Oil went from $150 to $40

Copper went from 4.2 to 1.2

etc...

"But that aside, I ask only this --> if we hit new ATHs for bitcoin within the next year, what does that say about Luc's wave theory?"

Nothing. EW helps traders gauge risk. All Luc is saying is that a very large motive count could be considered complete and that it would be foolish to not take, at least, some profit from a longer term viewpoint. Profiting from EW is all about expanding gains and limiting loses from likely and unlikely scenarios. EW is not about figuring out an absolute EW count and sticking with it no matter what. If a wave movement that contradicted lucs scenario occurred, luc would obviously change his analysis.  

[Okurkabinladin]

Because the institutions that I consider big money - like Goldman Sachs - dont even own bitcoin. Yet.

I have different information about GS and Bitcoin.

Ok. So where are we going from here?  Did you call $400 as the bottom of this down cycle? Or are you really holding fiat to 2016?

dude just stop, understand there people will have money and they need to lose a large portion of that money so the market can move on

Ok, I fear i am coming across of some sort of random antagonist in this thread. So let me clarify...

I have read back on all of masterluc's analysis and for the most part its highly impressive, cohesive and has tracked my sentiments much more time than not. So mad respect there.

However, his latest prediction that we are entering a multi-year bear market is based on the EW theory that he is extrapolating on a logarithmic chart since the beginning of BTC on the markets.

Luc's short term predictions are awesome.

But here is what I believe is happening with this long term prediction. First, we have to suppose that the EW theory is the correct theory to judge BTC long term growth chart. It very well may not be. In fact, there is a really good chance that its not. There is a strong argument that the EW theory for BTC and the S-curve adoption graph are incompatible with each other.

So, I think what is happening with masterluc, is that he is stuck to a EW theory. Now that theory says we are going down for a long time. This flies in the face of the adoption curve and what we are seeing in the REAL world with adoption, eco-system, etc. So Luc has to justify a possible scenario that would make this seemingly ridiculous theory seem plausible. So he answers to this that the stock market is a bubble and when that pops it will spiral effect BTC to the downside. Although this statement flies in the face of what we have seen from investment commodities during stock market down turns.

Now, I guess if the entire US system failed then BTC could be down for several years.

But suggesting that the US economy and/or the stock market will create the EW theory scenario is, in my opinion, simply a concoction of masterlucs imagination.

It´s funny, that you are trying to deconstruct thinking of another person to prove him wrong, when he was repeatedly proven right by the market. Unlike you.

[masterluc]

waveaddict, thanks for observations. Actually main trading decisions were on patterns you pointed to.

[windjc]

waveaddict, thanks for observations. Actually main trading decisions were on patterns you pointed to.

Masterluc,

I think I derailed the thread a bit. It was not my intention. My real intention was to get clarification on your long term projections for btc. Any you care to share in more detail?

edit:  I am also curious why you dont short on the downtrend. Especially if you believe it is a short/mid term trend?

[masterluc]

Long and painful decline. Are you happy?

[windjc]

Long and painful decline. Are you happy?

I am indifferent. Are you just a trader? Or do you have a belief in the long term viability of btc? Why, not at least short the downtrend?

[Wekkel]

This will be the hardest days of Bitcoin. It must proof itself to become mainstream worthy or sink into the dustbin. Its going to be more about fundamentals the next period than speculation.

[masterluc]

I am indifferent. 

Then just GTFO.

[windjc]

I am indifferent.  

Then just GTFO.

Don't be angry at me. You asked me if I was happy. I said I was indifferent. Meaning, your answer wasn't going to upset me.

All I asked for was a little clarification. I guess, from you answer, you don't have it or want to share it. Fine. Your choice. I wont ask again.

[2017orso]

Masterluc.  I've never followed your trading advice and don't trade bitcoin, people here seem to enjoy you.

Just wondering, as someone who enjoys the mental exercise of the interplay, esp with bitcoin now in the fray, disregarding the EW count etc, fundamentally, why would you think bitcoin will sink with the markets when they inevitably crash likely in 2014, why wouldn't that have the opposite effect, and take bitcoin along with gold and silver potentially?

[N12]

Have a look at 2008. Gold DOWN, stocks DOWN.

[windjc]

Have a look at 2008. Gold DOWN, stocks DOWN.

Sigh. Gold was down temporarily on the initial shock of the crisis. Gold did not fall anywhere close to the rate the stock market did. Gold corrected more quickly and then went up much more rapidly.

Later as the stock market improved steadily Gold reached it's top and started going back down.

How anyone can suggest precious metals are not an investment hedge against economic crisis is amazing.