Analysis

[RHCwebhosting]

I don't make trading decisions based on news )) Never, ever. News follow waves, not visa versa.

If you scroll back topic you will see first warning from me was previous higher high overlap from China on 01 Dec. Sold there about 70%. Second confirmation I got when price hit negative BB zone on China 05 Dec. This is outstanding. Sold all other coins on rebounce. Then hourly sma200 was failed on retest from bottom. This insured me completely. And I wrote about bubble end.

No  mystery here. TA and observance.

Wholeheartedly agree. As Lucif says, news follows waves. The predominant shapes found in speculative markets reveal themselves regardless of news, and news stories are but the tiny gusts of wind that knocks down the first domino. The chart patterns repeat themselves nearly perfectly regardless of the news that is the catalyst.

Coinbase lawsuit didn't cause the $140-$70 crash. It was due to happen. Gox ddos did not cause the $266-50 crash. It was building up for weeks. Only when the dominoes have been setting up in the correct position can they fall down perfectly from that gust of wind.

Ferdinand’s assassination was not the cause of WWI.


Due to waves I have bought back in at these beautiful $700 prices and await the final euphoric spike due to push us above $3000 in late January.

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[2017orso]

Where is the money gonna go then.  Markets crash, gold temporarily down and picks up quite quickly.  When markets crash and value starts flying into USD for a brief time then I guess, asking Im new to market behavior just studying the 2008 crash for info.  Then the funds go where, I cant see why they would stay in USD, metals rallying seems reasonable, or are we looking at a situation where people are going to be trying to find a way to buy something to eat, which is the only type of situation that would seem to warrant btc crashing over the next couple years.

Im quite bullish on btc but like to keep an open mind, its obviously POSSIBLE that bitcoin crashes, and I understand that news follows large market cycles, and EW to a lesser extent.  Still, retroactive EW application to these first few years of btc, EW failure rate has got to be quite high given the circumstances, or at least, likely to be a lot less reliable then if were looking at 70 years of gold pricing...

I dont want to dismiss anything outright, and Masterluc you obv dont have to defend anything, youre giving your opinion so thanks for doing that at least.  Do you not think you should dig a bit deeper into the possibility you may be wrong though.  Even if youre out of btc for now.

[cAPSLOCK]

Ferdinand’s assassination was not the cause of WWI.
Due to waves I have bought back in at these beautiful $700 prices and await the final euphoric spike due to push us above $3000 in late January.

What if WWI has already begun?

[JustAnotherSheep]

Due to waves I have bought back in at these beautiful $700 prices and await the final euphoric spike due to push us above $3000 in late January.

What makes you think this will happen? Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying you are incorrect, I would just like to know your reasons for drawing this assumption. I'm still very much learning TA (all thanks to lucif btw, I really appreciate you showing me the world of black magic that is technical analysis!), but by my accounts wave 5 should be past now, and what we are witnessing is a crash with an estimated bottom of $400-500 (or if lucif is correct, and we are in for a 2011-style prolonged bear-market, then I guess towards $50-100, but I won't even begin to speculate on that).

I originally expected wave 5 to spike to $2.4-3.6k, but as you say, news are the gusts of wind that bring the domino pieces down, and while this time of year the wind came a bit early it still seems to have succeeded in its task.

I also see a pennant forming right now, which from what I've learned of traditional TA should mean we go down more. But then again for all I know it could mean trend reversal in the world of bitcoin

[Bagatell]

Due to waves I have bought back in at these beautiful $700 prices and await the final euphoric spike due to push us above $3000 in late January.

What makes you think this will happen?

As another noob to TA I'd like to know as well.

I keep looking at this
https://www.tradingview.com/e/M1ZPd859/
and wondering what's wrong with it.

To me it says $3000 by Jan is too bullish but $3000 by July is too bearish..

[xephyr]

There was also a pennant formed 12/5 to 12/6 ending at 1000 on bitstamp just before the drop to 540. It would therefore seem likely that the pennant forming now could end in another drop. If so and 540 is taken out that would be three waves down, which according to EW as I read it would confirm a bear market has begun. Then expect two waves up ending in a bull trap. The longer we stabilize at ~700 the better outlook for bulls IMO. Thoughts?

[JustAnotherSheep]

As another noob to TA I'd like to know as well.

I keep looking at this
https://www.tradingview.com/e/M1ZPd859/
and wondering what's wrong with it.

To me it says $3000 by Jan is too bullish but $3000 by July is too bearish..

Interesting, thanks for posting

Looking at that chart and going from historical EW counts, couldn't it be argued that the summer 2012 event was too small/insignificant to be considered a wave 1, and thus the latest spike was of wave 3, meaning we will see yet another rally before everything goes to shit? Like so:



A noob's take on lucif's doomsday prediction, would really appreciate any input from the more experienced traders here

[sumantso]

As another noob to TA I'd like to know as well.

I keep looking at this
https://www.tradingview.com/e/M1ZPd859/
and wondering what's wrong with it.

To me it says $3000 by Jan is too bullish but $3000 by July is too bearish..

Interesting, thanks for posting

Looking at that chart and going from historical EW counts, couldn't it be argued that the summer 2012 event was too small/insignificant to be considered a wave 1, and thus the latest spike was of wave 3, meaning we will see yet another rally before everything goes to shit? Like so:



A noob's take on lucif's doomsday prediction, would really appreciate any input from the more experienced traders here

I have been thinking that too. Though I am not sure if I am seeing what I want to see. I found out about BTC during the April boom - don't want to be the guy who comes to the party while its at the end; still have dreams of becoming a millionaire

[windjc]

Due to waves I have bought back in at these beautiful $700 prices and await the final euphoric spike due to push us above $3000 in late January.

What makes you think this will happen? Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying you are incorrect, I would just like to know your reasons for drawing this assumption. I'm still very much learning TA (all thanks to lucif btw, I really appreciate you showing me the world of black magic that is technical analysis!), but by my accounts wave 5 should be past now, and what we are witnessing is a crash with an estimated bottom of $400-500 (or if lucif is correct, and we are in for a 2011-style prolonged bear-market, then I guess towards $50-100, but I won't even begin to speculate on that).

I originally expected wave 5 to spike to $2.4-3.6k, but as you say, news are the gusts of wind that bring the domino pieces down, and while this time of year the wind came a bit early it still seems to have succeeded in its task.

I also see a pennant forming right now, which from what I've learned of traditional TA should mean we go down more. But then again for all I know it could mean trend reversal in the world of bitcoin

I am still bothered by a lack of discussion with fundamentals. Of course this is a 100% technical discussion thread and the essence behind that is markets are moved by emotions and emotions can be tracked and estimated by TA. Thats true.

But what is also true is underlining fundamentals create success and failure too. Just ask Warren Buffet.

When I see the $120 rising tracking with the investments from Second Market is gives me pause. With the ETF and other high level investment capital likely to find its way into this market in 2014, I have a hard time believing that this will be a "car wreck in slow motion" over the next 12 months +.  And there are many other potential influences of capital into this market as well.

Is there not something to be said for mixing high level TA with deep fundamental data? It is so easy to dismiss bitcoin and crypto is just some highly speculative trading vehicle.  

I think this misses the entire picture.

Other commodities and futures are not technologies.  They dont really have fundamentals. I would argue that bitcion is more like a stock in that regard, it has fundamentals that can and should be tracked. This is hard to do, as it is hard to track the fundamental value of Twitter or Facebook or some new technology. But it shouldn't be ignored.

[waveaddict]

waveaddict, thanks for observations. Actually main trading decisions were on patterns you pointed to.

No problem. I'll always defend a fellow talented TA & EWer
It's truly amazing how often I have to explain basic market concepts and recall basic information in the speculation forum. Trying to educate people of the practicality of EW is the hardest because so many people misunderstand and misuse it. It's one of those ideas/theories that takes weeks to somewhat understand but years to fully appreciate and profit from. Most just quickly learn about it, without fully understanding it, and then fail at it and subsequently blame the idea instead of their own shortcomings. Anything that is worth doing/learning isn't easy! Moreover, it's insulting to have some of these same people argue with and insult you on something they haven't taken the time to understand, especially when you are trying to help them out.

[windjc]

waveaddict, thanks for observations. Actually main trading decisions were on patterns you pointed to.

No problem. I'll always defend a fellow talented TA & EWer
It's truly amazing how often I have to explain basic market concepts and recall basic information in the speculation forum. Trying to educate people of the practicality of EW is the hardest because so many people misunderstand and misuse it. It's one of those ideas/theories that takes weeks to somewhat understand but years to fully appreciate and profit from. Most just quickly learn about it, without fully understanding it, and then fail at it and subsequently blame the idea instead of their own shortcomings. Anything that is worth doing/learning isn't easy! Moreover, it's insulting to have some of these same people argue with and insult you on something they haven't taken the time to understand, especially when you are trying to help them out.

That's aimed at me. Fair enough.

But just because I doubt that EW can tell us everything we need to know about bitcoin markets moving forward, I do not think my assertion is unreasonable. There seems to be great consensus amongst this group that bitcoins best days are behind it (at least for years). And this is based on charts. If we are higher in price 1 year from now, I am interested to see if a more robust way of looking at this market might be taken into effect or if it will just be dismissed by "more EW waves" in a different order.  Short term analysis with this waves are great predictors, because they track the emotions of the market. But, in my opinion, bitcoins success moving forward mid to long term is going to be about fundamentals.

edit: and what is it with all the defensiveness in this thread? how many times must someone complement the OP until they can avoid the condescension of EW theory traders? Jess. I bought low and sold high too guys. I basically made the important buys and trades that most here did without staring at charts 24/7. It wasn't rocket science.

Maybe the one difference is I have a certain allocation in cold storage as a long term investment. Maybe I'm just naive enough to believe that Bitcoin has a place in the future of this world outside of a short term trade vehicle.

[masterluc]

[oda.krell]

From my side, much respect to waveaddict and masterluc.

It's really amazing how big greed is on human nature, lots of people are expecting to see +1100 prices by next week after droping from 1200 to 550. Sorry guys but is not going to happend in a short time, not a single good inversor/trader is going to panic buy or going long right now until waters calms down, in a few weeks at least.

This is time to take profits, but much people are still in denial phase.

Yeah... This is kind of bullshit. I would suggest not to throw around big words like "denial" and "greed", because exactly the same arguments were thrown around each step along the way to 1200 from the April low. Sometimes they were appropriate, most of the time, they weren't, as evidenced by the 1200 ATH.

Note: I'm not saying I think we're back on track immediately to a new ATH. But we just saw a halving of the ATH, and some (moderate) signs for support above 600. So another halving event like the one masterluc expects is dubios in my opinion. Not impossible, but not the most likely scenario either.

[windjc]

From my side, much respect to waveaddict and masterluc.

It's really amazing how big greed is on human nature, lots of people are expecting to see +1100 prices by next week after droping from 1200 to 550. Sorry guys but is not going to happend in a short time, not a single good inversor/trader is going to panic buy or going long right now until waters calms down, in a few weeks at least.

This is time to take profits, but much people are still in denial phase.

Yeah... This is kind of bullshit. I would suggest not to throw around big words like "denial" and "greed", because exactly the same arguments were thrown around each step along the way to 1200 from the April low. Sometimes they were appropriate, most of the time, they weren't, as evidenced by the 1200 ATH.

Note: I'm not saying I think we're back on track immediately to a new ATH. But we just saw a halving of the ATH, and some (moderate) signs for support above 600. So another halving event like the one masterluc expects is dubios in my opinion. Not impossible, but not the most likely scenario either.

Sorry but english is not my natural language, how should i call those emotions then? I was not saying this in a unrespectful way, and i don't want to offense anyone, of course not, i'm only calling names to emotions.

We are in a downtren, indicators says we are going down, this is not a normal correction don't you think?

ED: I wass bullish all the way since july at $95 since three days ago, count this as just my opinion.

Are you bullish long term after this correction/downtrend?

[oda.krell]

From my side, much respect to waveaddict and masterluc.

It's really amazing how big greed is on human nature, lots of people are expecting to see +1100 prices by next week after droping from 1200 to 550. Sorry guys but is not going to happend in a short time, not a single good inversor/trader is going to panic buy or going long right now until waters calms down, in a few weeks at least.

This is time to take profits, but much people are still in denial phase.

Yeah... This is kind of bullshit. I would suggest not to throw around big words like "denial" and "greed", because exactly the same arguments were thrown around each step along the way to 1200 from the April low. Sometimes they were appropriate, most of the time, they weren't, as evidenced by the 1200 ATH.

Note: I'm not saying I think we're back on track immediately to a new ATH. But we just saw a halving of the ATH, and some (moderate) signs for support above 600. So another halving event like the one masterluc expects is dubios in my opinion. Not impossible, but not the most likely scenario either.

Sorry but english is not my natural language, how should i call those emotions then? I was not saying this in a unrespectful way, and i don't want to offense anyone, of course not, i'm only calling names to emotions.

We are in a downtren, indicators says we are going down, this is not a normal correction don't you think?

(Sorry if I came across too aggressive)

It's clear we saw major correction, true. To be followed by another major correction (which is what lucif expects)? That would confirm we're probably going to see a longer lasting downtrend. But I'm not sure that'll happen... Come Monday, we're going down to 300? Are you sure about that? Because to me the market right now mainly looks the same way I feel: undecided. We're hovering precariously close to the 30d average (on all exchanges), the bottoms of the smaller waves since 576 are slowly rising, volume paints a pretty uncertain picture, order books across all 3 major exchanges are holding up quite nicely actually,... like I said, to me it looks like it could swing either way.

By the way, I wasn't against profit taking at all. I sold at 1000, and don't regret it for obvious reasons. the question is, have we seen the major part of this correction, or are we in for a long bear market.

[windjc]

From my side, much respect to waveaddict and masterluc.

It's really amazing how big greed is on human nature, lots of people are expecting to see +1100 prices by next week after droping from 1200 to 550. Sorry guys but is not going to happend in a short time, not a single good inversor/trader is going to panic buy or going long right now until waters calms down, in a few weeks at least.

This is time to take profits, but much people are still in denial phase.

Yeah... This is kind of bullshit. I would suggest not to throw around big words like "denial" and "greed", because exactly the same arguments were thrown around each step along the way to 1200 from the April low. Sometimes they were appropriate, most of the time, they weren't, as evidenced by the 1200 ATH.

Note: I'm not saying I think we're back on track immediately to a new ATH. But we just saw a halving of the ATH, and some (moderate) signs for support above 600. So another halving event like the one masterluc expects is dubios in my opinion. Not impossible, but not the most likely scenario either.

Sorry but english is not my natural language, how should i call those emotions then? I was not saying this in a unrespectful way, and i don't want to offense anyone, of course not, i'm only calling names to emotions.

We are in a downtren, indicators says we are going down, this is not a normal correction don't you think?

(Sorry if I came across too aggressive)

It's clear we saw major correction, true. To be followed by another major correction (which is what lucif expects)? That would confirm we're probably going to see a longer lasting downtrend. But I'm not sure that'll happen... Come Monday, we're going down to 300? Are you sure about that? Because to me the market right now mainly looks the same way I feel: undecided. We're hovering precariously close to the 30d average (on all exchanges), the bottoms of the smaller waves since 576 are slowly rising, volume paints a pretty uncertain picture, order books across all 3 major exchanges are holding up quite nicely actually,... like I said, to me it looks like it could swing either way.

By the way, I wasn't against profit taking at all. I sold at 1000, and don't regret it for obvious reasons. the question is, have we seen the major part of this correction, or are we in for a long bear market.

I feel exactly the same way as you. Short term going down makes sense. But a prolonged bear market does not.

I think sometime traders feel like the market is driven by traders. Just like investors think the market is driven by purists that will follow bitcoin to the end. I think it falls somewhere in the middle. But I just do not see how, barring worldwide economic collapse, that the prospects for bitcoin are not very bullish over the next 12 months. We are just now seeing the budding of a true eco-system. Up until now, bitcoin WAS a truly speculative vehicle.  So this rally/crash/depression scenario that has played out twice before - I am a little skeptical of now.

That doesn't mean we couldn't go lower to the 400s and snap out of it fairly quickly though. Although that might violate a wave, I'm not sure.

[windjc]

From my side, much respect to waveaddict and masterluc.

It's really amazing how big greed is on human nature, lots of people are expecting to see +1100 prices by next week after droping from 1200 to 550. Sorry guys but is not going to happend in a short time, not a single good inversor/trader is going to panic buy or going long right now until waters calms down, in a few weeks at least.

This is time to take profits, but much people are still in denial phase.

Yeah... This is kind of bullshit. I would suggest not to throw around big words like "denial" and "greed", because exactly the same arguments were thrown around each step along the way to 1200 from the April low. Sometimes they were appropriate, most of the time, they weren't, as evidenced by the 1200 ATH.

Note: I'm not saying I think we're back on track immediately to a new ATH. But we just saw a halving of the ATH, and some (moderate) signs for support above 600. So another halving event like the one masterluc expects is dubios in my opinion. Not impossible, but not the most likely scenario either.

Sorry but english is not my natural language, how should i call those emotions then? I was not saying this in a unrespectful way, and i don't want to offense anyone, of course not, i'm only calling names to emotions.

We are in a downtren, indicators says we are going down, this is not a normal correction don't you think?

(Sorry if I came across too aggressive)

It's clear we saw major correction, true. To be followed by another major correction (which is what lucif expects)? That would confirm we're probably going to see a longer lasting downtrend. But I'm not sure that'll happen... Come Monday, we're going down to 300? Are you sure about that? Because to me the market right now mainly looks the same way I feel: undecided. We're hovering precariously close to the 30d average (on all exchanges), the bottoms of the smaller waves since 576 are slowly rising, volume paints a pretty uncertain picture, order books across all 3 major exchanges are holding up quite nicely actually,... like I said, to me it looks like it could swing either way.

By the way, I wasn't against profit taking at all. I sold at 1000, and don't regret it for obvious reasons. the question is, have we seen the major part of this correction, or are we in for a long bear market.

I feel exactly the same way as you. Short term going down makes sense. But a prolonged bear market does not.

I think sometime traders feel like the market is driven by traders. Just like investors think the market is driven by purists that will follow bitcoin to the end. I think it falls somewhere in the middle. But I just do not see how, barring worldwide economic collapse, that the prospects for bitcoin are not very bullish over the next 12 months. We are just now seeing the budding of a true eco-system. Up until now, bitcoin WAS a truly speculative vehicle.  So this rally/crash/depression scenario that has played out twice before - I am a little skeptical of now.

That doesn't mean we couldn't go lower to the 400s and snap out of it fairly quickly though. Although that might violate a wave, I'm not sure.

Gold and silver have been in a bear market since their respective bubbles popped in 2011. Why should it be different for bitcoin?

I think your question is in a nutshell exactly why I think EW theory is not the be all and end all.

If you can't see the difference between Bitcoin and Gold/Silver then I do not know where to start. I don't mean to condescend, because we probably just fundamentally disagree, but the basic fact that bitcoin is a disruptive technology and the other two are established precious metals is only the beginning of their fundamental differences.

If bitcoin is in bear market for the next 2 years, I believe it will die.  For bitcoin to succeed it must follow more closely the growth curve of a new rising technology, not a commodity.

[waveaddict]

edit: and what is it with all the defensiveness in this thread? how many times must someone complement the OP until they can avoid the condescension of EW theory traders? Jess. I bought low and sold high too guys. I basically made the important buys and trades that most here did without staring at charts 24/7. It wasn't rocket science.

As long as you stay away from trying to discredit TA, EW, or its practitioners, I'm pretty sure this whole fiasco will go down as a giant misunderstanding. Just try to keep an open mind, listen, and be respectful, especially when you are posting on someone else's thread. 

[windjc]

edit: and what is it with all the defensiveness in this thread? how many times must someone complement the OP until they can avoid the condescension of EW theory traders? Jess. I bought low and sold high too guys. I basically made the important buys and trades that most here did without staring at charts 24/7. It wasn't rocket science.

As long as you stay away from trying to discredit TA, EW, or its practitioners, I'm pretty sure this whole fiasco will go down as a giant misunderstanding. Just try to keep an open mind, listen, and be respectful, especially when you are posting on someone else's thread. 

I hope it was a misunderstanding as I have no ill will. That is why I complement OP on his work.

I do think there is a healthy discussion to be had with EW traders about the fundamentals of bitcoin away from the charts themselves. As I think it is important to have a healthy discussion with "to the moon" purists about the benefits of TA.

[Wekkel]

Trend is down. It is possible to see a form of a wedge. For me, these two things combined mean danger.