Analysis

[windjc]

The projected fib historical value would seem to have some merit after these corrections.

I agree.

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[Lady_Luck]

Yes Brisance, i also mention the fib .0764 earlier today, and the daily sma 20, as potential target (at least for today), I'm glad you confirm that.

[lebing]

Wow lebing. I thought that your honey badger don't give a shit.

Honey badger doesnt give a shit about the short term. Honey badger is all about the long term.

[oda.krell]

To be honest I don't know what half of you people are doing here.

One half bitches about master lucs projections the other half bitches about imaginary lines.

This thread is an analysis thread not a philosophical bitch thread. If you don't like "imaginary lines" if you don't like peoples projections fuck off. Plain and simple.

Take your female that time of the month period bullshit and fuck off.

This is meant to be a place where people share ideas about Bitcoin analysis, if you can't counter arguments here in a constructive manner showing your own talent for technical analysis then start your very own bitch thread where you can bitch all day to people who give a shit.

Plain and simple.

Dude?

Go fuck yourself.

You just lost a whole lot of respect I had for you after a number of decent TA posts.

[kryptopojken]

Brisance is right though. Why would you come to a TA thread if you don't believe in TA?

[oda.krell]

Brisance is right though. Why would you come to a TA thread if you don't believe in TA?

Read the part I put in bold. I also get annoyed by people coming here just to drop something like "TA doesn't work, don't you know that". Just as bad however: telling those people off by dropping some seriously dumb sexist one liner.

[ft73]

To be honest I don't know what half of you people are doing here.

One half bitches about master lucs projections the other half bitches about imaginary lines.

This thread is an analysis thread not a philosophical bitch thread. If you don't like "imaginary lines" if you don't like peoples projections fuck off. Plain and simple.

Take your female that time of the month period bullshit and fuck off.

This is meant to be a place where people share ideas about Bitcoin analysis, if you can't counter arguments here in a constructive manner showing your own talent for technical analysis then start your very own bitch thread where you can bitch all day to people who give a shit.

Plain and simple.

Dude?

Go fuck yourself.

You just lost a whole lot of respect I had for you after a number of decent TA posts.

Better to cool down? Both posts are disturbing to me.
Let's come back to our beloved "imaginary lines"

[Okurkabinladin]

Brisance is right though. Why would you come to a TA thread if you don't believe in TA?

Read the part I put in bold. I also get annoyed by people coming here just to drop something like "TA doesn't work, don't you know that". Just as bad however: telling those people off by dropping some seriously dumb sexist one liner.

I think your missing the point and it certainly isn't sexist.

There are a load of parasites here who simply wait for masterluc to come to this thread to start their little tirades on how ridiculous he is then there is the other half who come by to put everyone down on how TA is nothing but imaginary lines and unicorns, if you took my comments as being sexist I apologize to you it was made in jest and not with any intention at portraying females as being particularly bitchy.

I have nothing more to add to this subject.

Gentlemen, I would really appreciate, if you would put your extraordinary brains back to work  to hell with naysayers, they are the ones, who will keep losing money and respect, not you. And that´s all that matters.

[Lady_Luck]

To get back to it, with a bit of EW (which have been working pretty well up to now)

https://i.imgur.com/64tbmSM.png

We are definitely into 3 of 3 of c, it does show on macd, and the subminuette count confirm it. RSI still have some margin to go down before the next bounce.
I expect wave 5 to lack intensity, probably falling short and possibly to cause a double bottom. Too much selling pressure at the moment.
But let see where we going first.

[oda.krell]

Okay, back to BTC. Like I said before, I'm not much of a EW believer, so no wave counting from. Looking at my own (admittedly simple) tools, I have to say I am puzzled a bit: we broke through what I consider points of resistance at a speed I didn't expect. That said, one major point of resistance so far has been a 30 week average (I don't really believe in "hard" resistances, so what I look at is more 25,30,35 weeks). Which currently sits at around 355 (mtgox), 325 (bitstamp). If it breaks through that, I give it a high chance of bouncing up again.

[Grafzep]

It would really help (when trying to read so many posts) if people used "resistance" and "support" in the conventional way.

In the outside world price doesn't meet resistance on the way down, it finds support. People's points can be lost if you have to re-read several times because the language makes no apparent sense.

[ft73]

Okay, back to BTC. Like I said before, I'm not much of a EW believer, so no wave counting from. Looking at my own (admittedly simple) tools, I have to say I am puzzled a bit: we broke through what I consider points of resistance at a speed I didn't expect. That said, one major point of resistance so far has been a 30 week average (I don't really believe in "hard" resistances, so what I look at is more 25,30,35 weeks). Which currently sits at around 355 (mtgox), 325 (bitstamp). If it breaks through that, I give it a high chance of bouncing up again.

I'm looking at SMA100 and SMA200.
On Gox they're at 420$ and 263$, i'm positioning my buy orders in the lower half of this range.

[oda.krell]

It would really help (when trying to read so many posts) if people used "resistance" and "support" in the conventional way.

In the outside world price doesn't meet resistance on the way down, it finds support. People's points can be lost if you have to re-read several times because the language makes no apparent sense.

Nobody forces you to read someone else's  analysis

My analysis is based on tools that  are kind of simple and mostly self derived, so I'm sure I'm guilty of non standard terminology. To me it makes sense calling both resistance and support "resistance" because in my dumb little model, that is exactly what price encounters, the direction is implicit.

But I can try  to keep it mind, if it's really that confusing.

Anyway, seems like a bit of a recovery now. Wouldn't be surprised though if it's temporary. Testing 300 is well possible I think.

Question for the EW and fibbonacci guys : it seems most of you count from a peak of around 1000, while I look at 1200 as the top. What gives?

[sgbett]

I bought back in on $387, I'm happy as can be. I have now got half a bitcoin and now the 2 year wait for the next bubble. I noticed these bubbles tend to want to break through certain "milestone" numbers. $10, $50, $100, $1000, whats the next milestone?

next 5 milestones imho.

previous ATH, $2k, $5k, $10k, $20k

(if china u-turns there might be some yuan related oddball figures in there)

[wobber]

China is out. Bitcoin is not for pussies that listen to their government.

[Rampion]

Bitcoin is not for pussies that listen to their government.

Quoted for truth.

I would add that Bitcoins was never intended to be for pussies that get scared by a Gov. attack/ban.

Why did you think Satoshi made such an effort to remain anonymous?

Let's the real games begin.

[lebing]

If you rely on what masterluc said, the process of finding a bottom will be long and painful. Don't rush in too fast.

I feel bad for you if trust someone else more than yourself trading this market.

[oda.krell]

People, seriously. I understand some of you long term holders are riding this one out while staying more or less completely in BTC, but you need to lay off the brainless mantra's like "only the weak hands fear the government", and especially the uninformed bullshit about the Chinese people and China in general.

This is a market, get that into your heads. What we're doing here is price discovery. And if a huge driver of the former rally drops out for now because of changed legislation, there's abso-fucking-lutely nothing strange or unsavory about a major price drop.

China limiting BTC's usability = decreased value of BTC (for now)

Doesn't mean we'll never cross 1000 again. Doesn't mean China is completely out. Just that some of the things Chinese investors saw in BTC probably don't apply anymore.

So stop "arguing" with the market, and stop dividing investors and traders into "weak" vs."strong" hands, because you sound like cultists when you do.

* * *

Back on topic:

To me it looks like 1d SMA100 ~= 1d EMA150 (I prefer the latter version) held today and got some confirmation. It briefly dipped below on Bitstamp, but shot back above it with force.

So 400 (bitstamp) could be the preliminary bottom, in my opinion. Although I personally still watch out for 330 as the next level if we continue to go down. I see some small positive signs that we're reversing (mainly because of bid/ask ratio across exchanges), but it's not much yet to work with I admit :/

* * *

EDIT:  looked a bit more into the possibility that we've seen the worst of this correction... from my perspective, I look at 625 (bitstamp mtgox price) as a critical level. If we don't get there (and stay there) within the next day or two, I believe we're going to see another leg down, including a new post peak low most likely.

EDIT 2: made a mistake: mtgox, not bitstamp price

[N12]

So stop "arguing" with the market, and stop dividing investors and traders into "weak" vs."strong" hands, because you sound like cultists when you do.

They ARE cultists. Bitcoin cultists. They don't want to make money, they want to be right.

[samurai1200]

if we continue to go down.

We are in hourly oversold right now on mega volume, decreasing rapidly. 3 hours of tapping the underside of $600. High chance of heading back down to retest *something*... I think $330 is too aggressive. To me $400 is more likely (mid-November pit-stop). $450 is certain.

All prices gox.

Next up, me eating my words.

[edit] also, people, androids, sheep, this is an analysis thread. keep your petty e-arguments to PMs please. thanksies.