Analysis

[shmadz]

I don't have such sophisticated methods, but previous 2 times we tested the 780 level *Gox* the price took swift downturn. What I see for short-term is that unless the price breaks and holds above 780  then this consolidation period will continue, with perhaps retracement as low as around 610-620? (more likely price will fluctuate above and below that 700 level for some time again.)

Sure a retracement is possible and it very well could turn around right at the SMA. But personally I dont think so. I think we will break it and consequently see a huge push up to somewhere above 900 before it evens out again. Anyway its all short term shenanigans. Long term is what matters.

I very much hope you are right, but please don't discount the importance of these "short term shenanigans". If one is able to pay close attention to these short term fluctuations and act accordingly, there is a great opportunity to increase your holdings much better than just sitting on your coins and waiting. (also much risk of course, but I'm certain that most in this thread are intimately aware of risk assessment.)

*edit* 780 level has now been well and truly pierced, if price can hold for more than just a few hours, then yes, I think "somewhere above 900" is a feasible target. I'm not loading the boat just yet though...

*final edit* price now broke 800, luckily at virtex is still at 755. I'm now loading the boat, and the train is leaving the station, CHOO CHOO!!!

lol

[1713860451]

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[1713860451]

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[molecular]

I understand bitcoin and I'm looking to get as many coins as I can with a given amount of fiat

Then put in orders @ $350 and wait what happens.

was looking for something more technical rather than glib

I was thinking about this.



At this moment a sell off enough to take some risk but uncertain whether we will get there soon (if ever). A main rule of trading is 'when in doubt, don't do anything'.

A lot of people here expect what you charted. Therefore it might not happen. Market tends to move in the direction of most pain.

A lot of people here expect > $1k and ATHs next month, and that the rocket will take off by the new year. So it's difficult to use this as an indicator of sentiment.

Many people were very sure that $576 was the bottom as well.

Yeah, that's true. We can't draw any reliable conclusion from that. Phoenix1 is right, though: we'll find out.

Looks like "most pain" was to be inflicted in upward direction.

[shmadz]

Looks like "most pain" was to be inflicted in upward direction.

Upward movements have always caused me "most pain" - It's kinda weird, but when the price drops just after I buy I feel like ("Whew, I still have time")

---

but when price spikes, I feel a series of feelings that range from ... (" WOOHOOO! to the moon baby -sell a bit- umm, wait a sec, shouldn't there be a correction or something? -sell a bit more- OMFG! WHAT IF IT DOESN'T STOP??")  <- usually in that order.

At least that's how I feel about the portion of BTC that I choose to risk.

"Never risk more than you can afford to lose" cuts both ways I think.

[samurai1200]

Alright, post-game analysis (today's game of testing $830 gox!):

Looking at the charts for a minute or so today I couldn't figure out why ~$830 was the magic resistance number. Eventually there were 3 references I could find, one on high volume and two on low(er) volume.



The left-most point makes sense, there was huge volume there. The other two feel like hopeful aftershocks (one order of magnitude less volume each).

I'm still a short-term bear, which really just means I'm making a lot of dumb and/or useless trades that are stressing me out.

[gandhibt]

Alright, post-game analysis (today's game of testing $830 gox!):

Looking at the charts for a minute or so today I couldn't figure out why ~$830 was the magic resistance number. Eventually there were 3 references I could find, one on high volume and two on low(er) volume.



The left-most point makes sense, there was huge volume there. The other two feel like hopeful aftershocks (one order of magnitude less volume each).

I'm still a short-term bear, which really just means I'm making a lot of dumb and/or useless trades that are stressing me out.

that line is not straight, those bots are at $840 and that top is at $830, just a remark, not necessarily important

[zby]

Looks like the correction down trendlines are broken:

(bitstamp)

Time for a bounce back? What do you think?

[Viceroy]

Yeah, whats the point of that ZH article? Nothing to do with Bitcoin.

Has a lot to do with bitcoin in my mind. Is Bitcoin like gold or like stocks. I think like gold, we might see.

I thought this too until a buddy pointed out that right now gold is HEAVILY manipulated as the major banks attempt to restock their coffers ahead of the Germans taking delivery of all that gold we took in WWII.  Poor Germans don't realize we don't actually have the gold to pay them back.

http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/who-is-manipulating-the-gold-price
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-13/deutsche-bank-investigated-gold-manipulation-probe

[JustAnotherSheep]

Speculation: The top of the major bulltrap has been reached based on fib retracement levels and top/trap-top ratio of previous bubble crash applied to this one, and now we should enter a period of decline. The same method worked for me to estimate bottom with relative accuracy, so I don't see why it shouldn't for this.

Time for me to take profit, see you all when we reach floor again

[windjc]

Speculation: The top of the major bulltrap has been reached based on fib retracement levels and top/trap-top ratio of previous bubble crash applied to this one, and now we should enter a period of decline. The same method worked for me to estimate bottom with relative accuracy, so I don't see why it shouldn't for this.

Time for me to take profit, see you all when we reach floor again

Yes. Except for the little fact that various market conditions are always dynamic. That is why every major run up and sell off has not followed the same pattern. Expecting the market to behave like it did 6 months ago is probably going to disappoint.

[molecular]

Yeah, whats the point of that ZH article? Nothing to do with Bitcoin.

Has a lot to do with bitcoin in my mind. Is Bitcoin like gold or like stocks. I think like gold, we might see.

I thought this too until a buddy pointed out that right now gold is HEAVILY manipulated as the major banks attempt to restock their coffers ahead of the Germans taking delivery of all that gold we took in WWII.  Poor Germans don't realize we don't actually have the gold to pay them back.

http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/who-is-manipulating-the-gold-price
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-13/deutsche-bank-investigated-gold-manipulation-probe

We do realize it. It's plain to see they don't have the gold. What should we do? Start a war against the US?

With Bitcoin being "like gold", of course I didn't mean "manipulated", I meant: be used as a flight-to-safety asset.

[Viceroy]

lol, what good would a war do.. I told you we spent your money.  breaking our legs isn't going to make it reappear...  I mean it's not like we can just go dig it up somewhere...

www.airphotona.com/image.asp?imageid=5133&catnum=0&catname=All%20Categories&keyword=&country=&state=&pagenum=504

[arepo]

Speculation: The top of the major bulltrap has been reached based on fib retracement levels and top/trap-top ratio of previous bubble crash applied to this one, and now we should enter a period of decline. The same method worked for me to estimate bottom with relative accuracy, so I don't see why it shouldn't for this.

Time for me to take profit, see you all when we reach floor again

based on the shape of the last bubble, we've still got some ways up to go before another reversal..

the ratios are going to be different because of different market conditions (hint, investors were a little more rational this time around and formed a sensible double-top formation as opposed to bubble-top cusp). the shape of the pattern is scarily identical, however.

--arepo

[T.Stuart]

Looks like the correction down trendlines are broken:

(bitstamp)

Time for a bounce back? What do you think?

It will take people a few days to get used to the idea but I think it's good.

[JustAnotherSheep]

based on the shape of the last bubble, we've still got some ways up to go before another reversal..

Yeah, it's still possible we'll make a final reach to 900-ish before going down but I see the ratios more as consistent approximations, and the top pinged nicely on fib level 0.5. I'd rather sell at 800 and risk missing some potential profit than hold if it does start to go down after that.

the ratios are going to be different because of different market conditions (hint, investors were a little more rational this time around and formed a sensible double-top formation as opposed to bubble-top cusp). the shape of the pattern is scarily identical, however.

--arepo

If lucif taught me anything it's that the market is incredibly static in its predictability to the point where it defies common sense The condition for the pop was also different (we had not yet reached the parabolic spike of terminal fifth wave) yet the top-bottom turned out to have (approximately) the same ratio regardless.

But this is nothing more than guesswork from a noob sheep, we'll just have to wait and see if it holds true. If it does I will make sacrifice to the market gods for allowing me a glimpse of their infinite wisdom!

[T.Stuart]

based on the shape of the last bubble, we've still got some ways up to go before another reversal..

--arepo

It depends on more factors now, but if you simply want to keep with the ratios of the last bubble the low ($450) has clearly been touched.

[BrightAnarchist]

$830 is continuing to act as massive resistance. This is good news for the bearish case.

[Voodah]

$830 is continuing to act as massive resistance. This is good news for the bearish case.

If we are going for new lows, 800~ is also the perfect number to double your coins.

[arepo]

$830 is continuing to act as massive resistance. This is good news for the bearish case.

no dice. high-volume doji marks the short-term bottom:



we're still being held up by the mid-term moving support.

--arepo

[samurai1200]

$830 is continuing to act as massive resistance. This is good news for the bearish case.

no dice. high-volume doji marks the short-term bottom:



we're still being held up by the mid-term moving support.

--arepo

4 hour candles, how "short-term" are we talkin?

[T.Stuart]

$830 is continuing to act as massive resistance. This is good news for the bearish case.

no dice. high-volume doji marks the short-term bottom:



we're still being held up by the mid-term moving support.

--arepo

4 hour candles, how "short-term" are we talkin?

Most likely scenario is a break through $825 by the end of the week then consolidation at this price