Analysis

[arepo]

4 hour candles, how "short-term" are we talkin?

fair retort. i suppose "micro-term" is more appropriate here. i was responding to Bright in context, while assuming they were referring to the slide that just happened in response to the failure to break the resistance they mentioned.

all i mean to say is this small move down doesn't strengthen the bearish case if the doji marks a micro-term bottom. we're still being held up by the mid-term support as long as we don't move any lower, hence why this fairly small price movement is very significant.

--arepo

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[samurai1200]

4 hour candles, how "short-term" are we talkin?

fair retort. i suppose "micro-term" is more appropriate here. i was responding to Bright in context, while assuming they were referring to the slide that just happened in response to the failure to break the resistance they mentioned.

all i mean to say is this small move down doesn't strengthen the bearish case if the doji marks a micro-term bottom. we're still being held up by the mid-term support as long as we don't move any lower. hence why this fairly small price movement is very significant.

--arepo

got it, thanks for the explanation. in these times of high volatility, i think its fair to call a 1 day to 1 week time-frame 'short term.'

[arepo]

4 hour candles, how "short-term" are we talkin?

fair retort. i suppose "micro-term" is more appropriate here. i was responding to Bright in context, while assuming they were referring to the slide that just happened in response to the failure to break the resistance they mentioned.

all i mean to say is this small move down doesn't strengthen the bearish case if the doji marks a micro-term bottom. we're still being held up by the mid-term support as long as we don't move any lower. hence why this fairly small price movement is very significant.

--arepo

got it, thanks for the explanation. in these times of high volatility, i think its fair to call a 1 day to 1 week time-frame 'short term.'

yes, that is the general usage. i'm afraid i'm being a little optimistic here and referencing my bullishly notated charts (see my thread) if everything pans out, $775 will indeed hold for that time frame.

[T.Stuart]

4 hour candles, how "short-term" are we talkin?

fair retort. i suppose "micro-term" is more appropriate here. i was responding to Bright in context, while assuming they were referring to the slide that just happened in response to the failure to break the resistance they mentioned.

all i mean to say is this small move down doesn't strengthen the bearish case if the doji marks a micro-term bottom. we're still being held up by the mid-term support as long as we don't move any lower. hence why this fairly small price movement is very significant.

--arepo

got it, thanks for the explanation. in these times of high volatility, i think its fair to call a 1 day to 1 week time-frame 'short term.'

yes, that is the general usage. i'm afraid i'm being a little optimistic here and referencing my bullishly notated charts (see my thread) if everything pans out, $775 will indeed hold for that time frame.

On average we will go up $10-$20 per day for the next 10 days or so (with ups and downs of course). Then quite a fair chance of some steeper climbing before consolidation in a few months.

The current line is going to develop into the over-riding trend for next year, meaning we arrive at between $4,000 and $5,000 by the end of 2014 (catastrophic news or bubble at that time notwithstanding).

Sounds facile but despite the noise (media as much as as TA) most things are pointing that way.

[Mikcik]

Guys im newi n this thread didnt follow it until now (didnt know about it), may i have a question... was all the charts and company for something... did you predicted anything right...? I see a lot of charts here for price prediction, the thread has around 50+pages... So was your predictions accurate? How many of them? (above 50%)?

[lebing]

4 hour candles, how "short-term" are we talkin?

fair retort. i suppose "micro-term" is more appropriate here. i was responding to Bright in context, while assuming they were referring to the slide that just happened in response to the failure to break the resistance they mentioned.

all i mean to say is this small move down doesn't strengthen the bearish case if the doji marks a micro-term bottom. we're still being held up by the mid-term support as long as we don't move any lower. hence why this fairly small price movement is very significant.

--arepo

got it, thanks for the explanation. in these times of high volatility, i think its fair to call a 1 day to 1 week time-frame 'short term.'

yes, that is the general usage. i'm afraid i'm being a little optimistic here and referencing my bullishly notated charts (see my thread) if everything pans out, $775 will indeed hold for that time frame.

On average we will go up $10-$20 per day for the next 10 days or so (with ups and downs of course). Then quite a fair chance of some steeper climbing before consolidation in a few months.

The current line is going to develop into the over-riding trend for next year, meaning we arrive at between $4,000 and $5,000 by the end of 2014 (catastrophic news or bubble at that time notwithstanding).

Sounds facile but despite the noise (media as much as as TA) most things are pointing that way.

I've seen this prediction many times, but not sure why exactly people are choosing this number. In 2013, we went up 60x. Why would we only go up 7x next year? IMO if anything the curve gets steeper as the monkeys hope on board.

[molecular]

I've seen this prediction many times, but not sure why exactly people are choosing this number. In 2013, we went up 60x. Why would we only go up 7x next year? IMO if anything the curve gets steeper as the monkeys hope on board.

There's only so many monkeys. While I tend to "predict" a higher increase for 2014 also, it's not in any way a given that the rate of fresh monkey inflow is going to increase forever. It might well be that the bulk is over already (although I highly doubt that).

It all boils down to the question: "how many monkeys is it going to be in the end?".

I'm hoping for roughly 7 billion.

[T.Stuart]

... the curve gets steeper as the monkeys hope on board...

But the monkeys are already hoping on board aren't they?  

[Bitcoin BEAR]

4 hour candles, how "short-term" are we talkin?

fair retort. i suppose "micro-term" is more appropriate here. i was responding to Bright in context, while assuming they were referring to the slide that just happened in response to the failure to break the resistance they mentioned.

all i mean to say is this small move down doesn't strengthen the bearish case if the doji marks a micro-term bottom. we're still being held up by the mid-term support as long as we don't move any lower. hence why this fairly small price movement is very significant.

--arepo

got it, thanks for the explanation. in these times of high volatility, i think its fair to call a 1 day to 1 week time-frame 'short term.'

yes, that is the general usage. i'm afraid i'm being a little optimistic here and referencing my bullishly notated charts (see my thread) if everything pans out, $775 will indeed hold for that time frame.

On average we will go up $10-$20 per day for the next 10 days or so (with ups and downs of course). Then quite a fair chance of some steeper climbing before consolidation in a few months.

The current line is going to develop into the over-riding trend for next year, meaning we arrive at between $4,000 and $5,000 by the end of 2014 (catastrophic news or bubble at that time notwithstanding).

Sounds facile but despite the noise (media as much as as TA) most things are pointing that way.

I've seen this prediction many times, but not sure why exactly people are choosing this number. In 2013, we went up 60x. Why would we only go up 7x next year? IMO if anything the curve gets steeper as the monkeys hope on board.

This is because your s-curve theory is pulled out of a bulls ass! It's only believed here because it supports the permabulls bias. There is no basis for such an assumption.
You believe this crap, and yet you discredit TA/EW?

Bitcoin is the linux of currencies. Even though it has some better qualities, the learning curve is just too steep for many people to ever fully adopt it, when it's easier to just use windows (Fiat). General public is lazy!

[T.Stuart]

Even though it has some better qualities, the learning curve is just too steep for many people to ever fully adopt it...

Come on... People will use it with a password with their private keys stored by the wallet provider with traditional security.

Not difficult.

[Bitcoin BEAR]

Even though it has some better qualities, the learning curve is just too steep for many people to ever fully adopt it...

Come on... People will use it with a password with their private keys stored by the wallet provider with traditional security.

Not difficult.

I am assuming you are talking about an online wallet!?
This is no better than the banks that are trying to be undermined. Except you have less recourse if they decide to close up shop and take account funds with them.

[JustAnotherSheep]

I've seen this prediction many times, but not sure why exactly people are choosing this number. In 2013, we went up 60x. Why would we only go up 7x next year? IMO if anything the curve gets steeper as the monkeys hope on board.

I see a possible trend of weakened bubbles. In 2011 we went up 40x. In April 20x. Now it was 10x. The number is seemingly halving every time (not counting the micro-bubbles in-between), and so 5x for the next ride isn't entirely unreasonable.

However I also see the possibility of a repeat of the 2010-2011 cycle, which should mean the biggest and most profound rally is yet to come, followed by luc's doomsday scenario.





I personally believe in the latter but maybe I'm too optimistic  

[T.Stuart]

I am assuming you are talking about an online wallet!?
This is no better than the banks that are trying to be undermined. Except you have less recourse if they decide to close up shop and take account funds with them.

At the moment online wallets have some bad press but they are the future of Bitcoin for most people. They will also be regulated of course and be required to insure deposits.

[RyNinDaCleM]

I've seen this prediction many times, but not sure why exactly people are choosing this number. In 2013, we went up 60x. Why would we only go up 7x next year? IMO if anything the curve gets steeper as the monkeys hope on board.

I see a possible trend of weakened bubbles. In 2011 we went up 40x. In April 20x. Now it was 10x. The number is seemingly halving every time (not counting the micro-bubbles in-between), and so 5x for the next ride isn't entirely unreasonable.

However I also see the possibility of a repeat of the 2010-2011 cycle, which should mean the biggest and most profound rally is yet to come, followed by luc's doomsday scenario.





I personally believe in the latter but maybe I'm too optimistic  

I think you're missing a couple of waves in there. This is the most optimistic I can be (though there are other ridiculous counts possible on the overly optimistic side).

[Miz4r]

This is because your s-curve theory is pulled out of a bulls ass! It's only believed here because it supports the permabulls bias. There is no basis for such an assumption.
You believe this crap, and yet you discredit TA/EW?

Bitcoin is the linux of currencies. Even though it has some better qualities, the learning curve is just too steep for many people to ever fully adopt it, when it's easier to just use windows (Fiat). General public is lazy!

So far the bulls have been in the right camp though. People like you were calling every bull crazy and delusional when they said bitcoin would ever go to $1000 a coin, and yet the bulls were right and you were wrong. To use your OS analogy, Bitcoin is actually more like DOS right now. And soon someone will come in and create 'windows' to bring bitcoin to the general public. There is also a chance a serious competitor will seize that space first, but looking at the current competition that doesn't look very likely to me at the moment.

[Bitcoin BEAR]

I am assuming you are talking about an online wallet!?
This is no better than the banks that are trying to be undermined. Except you have less recourse if they decide to close up shop and take account funds with them.

At the moment online wallets have some bad press but they are the future of Bitcoin for most people. They will also be regulated of course and be required to insure deposits.

FDIC or the like would make it a different story, but it all costs (and good luck getting the Fed to insure BTC deposits). Private insurance will likely be uneconomical for such a use unless those funds are available to lend or invest to produce revenue for the wallet site.
If some form of insurance can be had, then great!

[T.Stuart]

do you think 700ish is our new favorite number for the time being? its looking quite resilient, every time the price charges towards the 600's on bitstamp it gets scared and hides in the $730 price range like a scared child.

$700 has shown much strength several times post the high point.

But it looks to me like we won't be heading back to $700. There is no panic either way any more.

I think everyone and his dog is content to sit tight until early January. Then we will see what happens.

[Bitcoin BEAR]

This is because your s-curve theory is pulled out of a bulls ass! It's only believed here because it supports the permabulls bias. There is no basis for such an assumption.
You believe this crap, and yet you discredit TA/EW?

Bitcoin is the linux of currencies. Even though it has some better qualities, the learning curve is just too steep for many people to ever fully adopt it, when it's easier to just use windows (Fiat). General public is lazy!

So far the bulls have been in the right camp though. People like you were calling every bull crazy and delusional when they said bitcoin would ever go to $1000 a coin, and yet the bulls were right and you were wrong. To use your OS analogy, Bitcoin is actually more like DOS right now. And soon someone will come in and create 'windows' to bring bitcoin to the general public. There is also a chance a serious competitor will seize that space first, but looking at the current competition that doesn't look very likely to me at the moment.

Hey, I never said never! I just expected a deeper correction rather than sideways... So yes I was wrong on that part, but I knew $1k was very possible. I just underestimated the over-exuberance of the sheeple in this market.
I bought at $2 two years ago, and I was trading at $12 one year ago, so I don't think this price is exactly justified. I know, I know.. "All this 'stuff' has happened" or "it's a different market now" but NO, it's not! I still can't buy anything worthwhile with it and I still can't pay any utility bills or my mortgage, or car payment, or any insurance using it. No big name stores (whether online or brick and mortar) accept it directly either. The current price is all speculation based on what is possible to do with BTC at some point
If even a few of those last points happen, I would turn so fast and buy with both fists... But until then, I just trade, ride the waves, skim profits from those unsuspecting/undeserving and bask in money while amounting a larger and larger pile of coins.

[T.Stuart]

This is because your s-curve theory is pulled out of a bulls ass! It's only believed here because it supports the permabulls bias. There is no basis for such an assumption.
You believe this crap, and yet you discredit TA/EW?

Bitcoin is the linux of currencies. Even though it has some better qualities, the learning curve is just too steep for many people to ever fully adopt it, when it's easier to just use windows (Fiat). General public is lazy!

So far the bulls have been in the right camp though. People like you were calling every bull crazy and delusional when they said bitcoin would ever go to $1000 a coin, and yet the bulls were right and you were wrong. To use your OS analogy, Bitcoin is actually more like DOS right now. And soon someone will come in and create 'windows' to bring bitcoin to the general public. There is also a chance a serious competitor will seize that space first, but looking at the current competition that doesn't look very likely to me at the moment.

Hey, I never said never! I just expected a deeper correction rather than sideways... So yes I was wrong on that part, but I knew $1k was very possible. I just underestimated the over-exuberance of the sheeple in this market.
I bought at $2 two years ago, and I was trading at $12 one year ago, so I don't think this price is exactly justified. I know, I know.. "All this 'stuff' has happened" or "it's a different market now" but NO, it's not! I still can't buy anything worthwhile with it and I still can't pay any utility bills or my mortgage, or car payment, or any insurance using it. No big name stores (whether online or brick and mortar) accept it directly either. The current price is all speculation based on what is possible to do with BTC at some point
If even a few of those last points happen, I would turn so fast and buy with both fists... But until then, I just trade, ride the waves, skim profits from those unsuspecting/undeserving and bask in money while amounting a larger and larger pile of coins.

Generally speaking things move faster and faster with this kind of Internet technology these days. Just be ready to ride some more waves soon!

[T.Stuart]

Looks like when I bought back at $370 per BTC on the 18th I got the drop at precisely the right nanosecond. yep, looking forward to the next development.

No doubt in my mind that you did exactly that. Congratulations!