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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 941375 times)
Millionero
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September 29, 2018, 04:12:02 AM
 #6061

blah blah blah
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marcus_of_augustus
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October 02, 2018, 01:49:57 AM
 #6062

masterluc is still the master

ft73
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October 02, 2018, 09:14:46 AM
 #6063

Moving at a very slow pace.
Yet it's moving and we have a BB squeeze.

Global OBV:


Local OBV:


Few days left for (A).
Otherwise (B) which would be more historically "compliant".
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October 08, 2018, 11:56:35 AM
 #6064

Daily MACD still negative, but close to crossing into positive, so a pump can be expected.
If this will be a breakout or a fakeout, remains to be seen. It would be useful to see the evolution of the bid side / ask side on exchanges,
but coinsight.org has been down for some time, and I don't know where else to look for this piece of information... Sad

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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October 10, 2018, 01:45:28 AM
 #6065

I'm sensing a head fake coming before the real breakout occurs.

It's hard to believe we could be heading into another bull run so soon, but if the master says so, I won't write it off!

 
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cAPSLOCK
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October 11, 2018, 04:30:44 PM
 #6066

I'm sensing a head fake coming before the real breakout occurs.

It's hard to believe we could be heading into another bull run so soon, but if the master says so, I won't write it off!

I suppose we see soon if you are right.
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October 17, 2018, 10:37:53 AM
 #6067

Moving at a very slow pace.
Yet it's moving and we have a BB squeeze.

Global OBV:


Local OBV:
~snip~

Few days left for (A).
Otherwise (B) which would be more historically "compliant".


@ft73: how the OBV chart is looking now? Did we reach the levels marked in yellow?

... this space is not for rent ...
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October 17, 2018, 06:49:44 PM
Merited by Wekkel (1)
 #6068

Moving at a very slow pace.
Yet it's moving and we have a BB squeeze.

Global OBV:


Local OBV:
~snip~

Few days left for (A).
Otherwise (B) which would be more historically "compliant".


@ft73: how the OBV chart is looking now? Did we reach the levels marked in yellow?



No, see the 3 horizontal blue dashed lines.

Technically it's above resistance now on Bitstamp, but it does not look like that on Bitfinex yet.



Anyway, no volume no buy.

Take a look at this as well:



We need that support to hold in order to hope for a breakout without moving lower.

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October 23, 2018, 06:47:56 PM
Merited by Wekkel (1)
 #6069

New post @bitcoin_wanga from telegram

https://imgur.com/a/Zjq8Ksv

Quote
Cмoтpитe мeдвeжьи дивepгeнции кaкиe бeшeныe нa нeдeльныx cтoкax. Пo ocциллятopa.

Ho ecли cтoки yпaдyт, битoчeк зa ними в этoт paз нe пocлeдyeт.

Translated
Quote
See bearish divergences which are mad for weekly stocks. By oscillator.

But if stocks fall, bitcoin will not follow them this time.

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October 23, 2018, 08:24:17 PM
 #6070

someone got better translation?
Wekkel
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yes


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October 23, 2018, 09:38:32 PM
 #6071

A bad period for stocks would fit the thesis of Bitcoin staying down/muted for a few more months. If Bitcoin then also catches a cold from falling stocks (risk off), a scenario of $4,800 could materialise. But the master seems to have increasing faith in the medium term.

baseke
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October 23, 2018, 10:11:54 PM
 #6072

someone got better translation?


Look at this crazy bearish divergences on stocks on weekly. By oscillators.  But if stocks fall this time btc won't follow them.
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October 28, 2018, 01:21:54 PM
 #6073

In the 6h and 12h time frames, the Bollinger bands are very tight, also PSAR flip may happen very soon.
So a move can be expected very soon, with a bearish bias IMO (12h PSAR may flip to bearish), although the local EW structure looks a bit bullish.
It is very annoying that coinsight is down... In such times of decision, the bid / ask ratio could help predict the outcome... Roll Eyes

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
marcus_of_augustus
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October 28, 2018, 08:01:24 PM
 #6074

bakkt up the truck, the fun  is about to commence.

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October 28, 2018, 11:32:18 PM
 #6075

In the 6h and 12h time frames, the Bollinger bands are very tight, also PSAR flip may happen very soon.
So a move can be expected very soon, with a bearish bias IMO (12h PSAR may flip to bearish), although the local EW structure looks a bit bullish.
It is very annoying that coinsight is down... In such times of decision, the bid / ask ratio could help predict the outcome... Roll Eyes

short/long ratio on bitfinex is bullish. shorts are still much higher than longs, which means more fuel for an upside breakout. the ratio looked more bullish a week ago though.

as the master pointed out some time ago, the $6000-7000 range still looks like an accumulation level. between that and the commitment of traders, i'm slightly bullish. but from a TA standpoint, i'm pretty neutral. just waiting for a breakout. Lips sealed

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October 29, 2018, 12:14:56 AM
 #6076

In my opinion the stock market hasn't exactly crashed. Yes some stocks had bad -20% days or so but we are not entering a bearish recession just yet. If you look at this from a weekly or monthly chart, stocks are still bullish.

The only people who think there is going to be a stock market crash are retail new traders and places like CNBC or Bloomberg but the big hedge funds and Soros are all busy buying up everyone's stock which they are all selling at a loss.

If we do actually enter some type of recession, then there might appear to be some outflows of the stock market and into the crypto market. However until the stock markets break the 2018 lows which is support, its too early to say.

The stocks are a buy at the moment.

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JayJuanGee
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October 29, 2018, 06:28:12 AM
 #6077

In the 6h and 12h time frames, the Bollinger bands are very tight, also PSAR flip may happen very soon.
So a move can be expected very soon, with a bearish bias IMO (12h PSAR may flip to bearish), although the local EW structure looks a bit bullish.
It is very annoying that coinsight is down... In such times of decision, the bid / ask ratio could help predict the outcome... Roll Eyes

Call me ignoramus, but I am having some difficulties understanding any proposition that "something has to happen" in terms of BTC price moving either UP or DOWN.  Why can't bitcoin price stay sideways for another 6 months or longer? 

Why does up or down price movement "have to be imminent" based on current tightening of BTC's price range?

Seems to me that a more accurate statement would be something like:

"Based on analysis of historical price trends, odds are 70% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 3 weeks, and if such UP or DOWN movement does not happen in the next 3 weeks then odds are 75% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 6 weeks, and if such UP or DOWN movement does not happen in the next 6 weeks then odds are 80% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 12 weeks, etc etc etc... "


Just seems a bit presumptuous to be asserting that BTC UP or DOWN has to happen "soon"TM

1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
ft73
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October 29, 2018, 09:46:16 AM
 #6078

In the 6h and 12h time frames, the Bollinger bands are very tight, also PSAR flip may happen very soon.
So a move can be expected very soon, with a bearish bias IMO (12h PSAR may flip to bearish), although the local EW structure looks a bit bullish.
It is very annoying that coinsight is down... In such times of decision, the bid / ask ratio could help predict the outcome... Roll Eyes

short/long ratio on bitfinex is bullish. shorts are still much higher than longs, which means more fuel for an upside breakout. the ratio looked more bullish a week ago though.

as the master pointed out some time ago, the $6000-7000 range still looks like an accumulation level. between that and the commitment of traders, i'm slightly bullish. but from a TA standpoint, i'm pretty neutral. just waiting for a breakout. Lips sealed

AND we got a falling wedge on Bitfinex + Keltner channel squeeze.



BUT Weekly volume is close to historical low for the last 2 years.

No volume = no signal.

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October 29, 2018, 11:46:30 AM
Last edit: October 29, 2018, 12:56:41 PM by Tzupy
 #6079

In the 6h and 12h time frames, the Bollinger bands are very tight, also PSAR flip may happen very soon.
So a move can be expected very soon, with a bearish bias IMO (12h PSAR may flip to bearish), although the local EW structure looks a bit bullish.
It is very annoying that coinsight is down... In such times of decision, the bid / ask ratio could help predict the outcome... Roll Eyes

Call me ignoramus, but I am having some difficulties understanding any proposition that "something has to happen" in terms of BTC price moving either UP or DOWN.  Why can't bitcoin price stay sideways for another 6 months or longer?  

Why does up or down price movement "have to be imminent" based on current tightening of BTC's price range?

Seems to me that a more accurate statement would be something like:

"Based on analysis of historical price trends, odds are 70% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 3 weeks, and if such UP or DOWN movement does not happen in the next 3 weeks then odds are 75% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 6 weeks, and if such UP or DOWN movement does not happen in the next 6 weeks then odds are 80% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 12 weeks, etc etc etc... "


Just seems a bit presumptuous to be asserting that BTC UP or DOWN has to happen "soon"TM.  

Well, the start of the expected move just happened, lets see where it will find support. However, the 12h PSAR flip to bearish put the starting point high, so 12h PSAR won't flip back to bullish soon.
This move had to happen soon, because there were both bullish and bearish possibilities, and a such low volatility and tight BB can't last too long.

PS. This also (just now) flipped the daily PSAR to bearish. Time to buy when daily will leave oversold, it's just entering now.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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October 29, 2018, 02:17:09 PM
 #6080

In the 6h and 12h time frames, the Bollinger bands are very tight, also PSAR flip may happen very soon.
So a move can be expected very soon, with a bearish bias IMO (12h PSAR may flip to bearish), although the local EW structure looks a bit bullish.
It is very annoying that coinsight is down... In such times of decision, the bid / ask ratio could help predict the outcome... Roll Eyes

Call me ignoramus, but I am having some difficulties understanding any proposition that "something has to happen" in terms of BTC price moving either UP or DOWN.  Why can't bitcoin price stay sideways for another 6 months or longer?  

Why does up or down price movement "have to be imminent" based on current tightening of BTC's price range?

Seems to me that a more accurate statement would be something like:

"Based on analysis of historical price trends, odds are 70% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 3 weeks, and if such UP or DOWN movement does not happen in the next 3 weeks then odds are 75% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 6 weeks, and if such UP or DOWN movement does not happen in the next 6 weeks then odds are 80% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 12 weeks, etc etc etc... "


Just seems a bit presumptuous to be asserting that BTC UP or DOWN has to happen "soon"TM.  

Well, the start of the expected move just happened, lets see where it will find support. However, the 12h PSAR flip to bearish put the starting point high, so 12h PSAR won't flip back to bullish soon.
This move had to happen soon, because there were both bullish and bearish possibilities, and a such low volatility and tight BB can't last too long.

PS. This also (just now) flipped the daily PSAR to bearish. Time to buy when daily will leave oversold, it's just entering now.

I'm not sure, actually.

Volume is increased, but uninpressive so far.
Cannot rule out a fakeout.

To go further down on Bitstamp price should pierce through MACD /12H dynamic support



Otherwise rebound expected.

On Bitfinex support did hold so far.
Moreover still within BB and Keltner.
Still squeezing.

I wouldn't bet on direction till squeeze is released.



We'll see.
At least we've got some action.
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