Analysis

[cAPSLOCK]

Seems like he is reading these posts again?

Taм нeдeльнaя мa200 y нac нa 4000 cидит. Я дyмaю пocлe oтcкoкa мы тaки мoжeм ee нaвecтить. Hy и этo впиcывaeтcя в кapтинкy вышe.


There we have a weekly ma200 for 4000 sitting. I think after the bounce we can still visit her. Well, that fits into the picture above.

[exstasie]

Seems like he is reading these posts again?

Taм нeдeльнaя мa200 y нac нa 4000 cидит. Я дyмaю пocлe oтcкoкa мы тaки мoжeм ee нaвecтить. Hy и этo впиcывaeтcя в кapтинкy вышe.

There we have a weekly ma200 for 4000 sitting. I think after the bounce we can still visit her. Well, that fits into the picture above.

Another visit to the 200-MA, seriously!? That idea reminds me of early 2016 when all the late bulls thought they could buy the $200s again. They were all left behind.

Bizarre proportions on that triangle too. Did he stop practicing EW?

[Wexlike]

Seems like he is reading these posts again?

Taм нeдeльнaя мa200 y нac нa 4000 cидит. Я дyмaю пocлe oтcкoкa мы тaки мoжeм ee нaвecтить. Hy и этo впиcывaeтcя в кapтинкy вышe.

There we have a weekly ma200 for 4000 sitting. I think after the bounce we can still visit her. Well, that fits into the picture above.

Another visit to the 200-MA, seriously!? That idea reminds me of early 2016 when all the late bulls thought they could buy the $200s again. They were all left behind.

Bizarre proportions on that triangle too. Did he stop practicing EW?

That is the problem with Masterluc. Half of his predictions are so fucking on point one could think he can see the future, and the others are just so incredibly bad. Nevertheless, I still lvoe to read his analysis and thoughts.

[Bossian]

Seems like he is reading these posts again?

Taм нeдeльнaя мa200 y нac нa 4000 cидит. Я дyмaю пocлe oтcкoкa мы тaки мoжeм ee нaвecтить. Hy и этo впиcывaeтcя в кapтинкy вышe.


There we have a weekly ma200 for 4000 sitting. I think after the bounce we can still visit her. Well, that fits into the picture above.

A rally to 9.2k area is very possible in the short term (next few weeks).
4k-ish target should be reached or not very far next year with the zigzag ABC correction in action.

Signing in to this thread, very interesting even though Masterluc is no longer posting now, please update if you have new posts from him from Twitter or similar media.

[Andergriff]

New post:

Oтcкoк дyмaю зaкoнчилcя, мoжeм тaки нaвecтить нeдeльнyю мa200 @5261

I think the bounce is over, we can still visit the weekly ma200 @ 5261

[Wexlike]

I think the bounce is over, we can still visit the weekly ma200 @ 5261

When this:



turns into this:



you realize that everyone is just human.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/Ybv5PkjN-Almost-at-resistance/

[windjc]

I think the bounce is over, we can still visit the weekly ma200 @ 5261

When this:



turns into this:



you realize that everyone is just human.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/Ybv5PkjN-Almost-at-resistance/

Yeah, he has been off his game since 2015 really.

[kellrobinson]

In December 2018 masterluc wrote on his PentarhUdi trandingview account that bitcoin was
" leaving straight-style log trend while continue to grow in SQRT-style trend"

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/JSP3KDmy-New-long-term-prediction-as-I-see-it-now/


This is well worth pursuing.  But I don't think Tradingview has the right tools for it. Masterluc just glommed a couple of vague swoopy curved lines on the chart.  Yet we can do much better.

I went to bitcoincharts(dot)com to download the price history for Mt Gox and Bitstamp, and concatenated them in a LibreOffice Calc spreadsheet for a continuous price history going back to 2010.
Then I ran iterated quadratic regressions.  The parabola has a horizontal axis of course, which means treating time as a function of price.  Once you get the quadratic, easy enough to solve it, giving a conventional graph with price as a function of time.
results here

https://hardworkandlowpay.wordpress.com/charts/

After deriving the parabola for the line of support (red on the chart), I found that by shifting that curve 45 months in time, it just touched the last two big blow-off tops; you can see this line in green on the chart.  The two parabolas are essentially identical, sharing the same axis and focal length.  The nested parabolas never intersect.

[Wexlike]

*skip*
https://hardworkandlowpay.wordpress.com/charts/
*skip*

Well done, enjoyable read!

Especially enjoyed your chart with the mapping on a possible bubble top for the next run-up after the halving:

[dragonvslinux]

In December 2018 masterluc wrote on his PentarhUdi trandingview account that bitcoin was
" leaving straight-style log trend while continue to grow in SQRT-style trend"

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/JSP3KDmy-New-long-term-prediction-as-I-see-it-now/


This is well worth pursuing.  But I don't think Tradingview has the right tools for it. Masterluc just glommed a couple of vague swoopy curved lines on the chart.  Yet we can do much better.

I went to bitcoincharts(dot)com to download the price history for Mt Gox and Bitstamp, and concatenated them in a LibreOffice Calc spreadsheet for a continuous price history going back to 2010.
Then I ran iterated quadratic regressions.  The parabola has a horizontal axis of course, which means treating time as a function of price.  Once you get the quadratic, easy enough to solve it, giving a conventional graph with price as a function of time.
results here

https://hardworkandlowpay.wordpress.com/charts/

After deriving the parabola for the line of support (red on the chart), I found that by shifting that curve 45 months in time, it just touched the last two big blow-off tops; you can see this line in green on the chart.  The two parabolas are essentially identical, sharing the same axis and focal length.  The nested parabolas never intersect.

I think the most relevant point is that the prediction has been very accurate (so far), regardless of the tools he used to make this TA. Sometimes the best analysis are the vague squiggly lines and random arrows pointing up and down - if the price follows that path that this. Kudos to PentarhUdi for getting things right so far, I haven't seen another publication that has been this accurate (regarding the lows, the highs, with the correct time-frame).



My only criticism is that they should of used smaller arrows to draw the lines 

[exstasie]

I think the most relevant point is that the prediction has been very accurate (so far), regardless of the tools he used to make this TA. Sometimes the best analysis are the vague squiggly lines and random arrows pointing up and down - if the price follows that path that this. Kudos to PentarhUdi for getting things right so far, I haven't seen another publication that has been this accurate (regarding the lows, the highs, with the correct time-frame).

I haven't either. It was an amazing prediction. For whatever reason, he has apparently abandoned it though, and is now predicting a return to the 200-week MA to build out this long term triangle.



I definitely prefer his December 2018 prediction.

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

I find it odd that masterluc no longer posts on this forum. TBH I find Enky Nakamura, Josh Olszewicz and John Bollinger more useful to follow at present.

[Leon83]

I think the most relevant point is that the prediction has been very accurate (so far), regardless of the tools he used to make this TA. Sometimes the best analysis are the vague squiggly lines and random arrows pointing up and down - if the price follows that path that this. Kudos to PentarhUdi for getting things right so far, I haven't seen another publication that has been this accurate (regarding the lows, the highs, with the correct time-frame).

I haven't either. It was an amazing prediction. For whatever reason, he has apparently abandoned it though, and is now predicting a return to the 200-week MA to build out this long term triangle.



I definitely prefer his December 2018 prediction.

Drawing a squeezing wedge on the linear chart on macro level is pretty meaningless in my opinion.

[dragonvslinux]

I think the most relevant point is that the prediction has been very accurate (so far), regardless of the tools he used to make this TA. Sometimes the best analysis are the vague squiggly lines and random arrows pointing up and down - if the price follows that path that this. Kudos to PentarhUdi for getting things right so far, I haven't seen another publication that has been this accurate (regarding the lows, the highs, with the correct time-frame).

I haven't either. It was an amazing prediction. For whatever reason, he has apparently abandoned it though, and is now predicting a return to the 200-week MA to build out this long term triangle.

Oh that's surprising to be honest I haven't reviewed the users TA to see how accurate it is, so I wouldn't put too much merit into another piece of analysis. Unless of course their TA is generally very accurate, or that this starts to become accurate. But by the looks of it, by the time it's accurate it'd be too late as it were (without there being an arrow for price to follow as with the in genius piece of TA). Then again, they predicted a move from $3K to $14K that no-one was expecting either, so who knows.

Either way, I don't like the lines. I'm OK with the resistance trend-line as enough speculators have identified it as relevant (even the bearish Tone agree breaking through would be fully bullish), but the support trend-line with two "sets" of touch-points looks like it's on a pivot form $3K that could be angled in many different ways. Personally, when looking at a longer-term support trend-line, I prefer connecting 2016 & 2019 on a log chart, that is a lot steeper, but I feel holds more relevance. This referenced chart's 2017 support point doesn't even connect with the lows either.

I definitely prefer his December 2018 prediction.

I also prefer accurate TA, the older the better 

Drawing a squeezing wedge on the linear chart on macro level is pretty meaningless in my opinion.

Couldn't agree more to be honest. There are times when linear charts makes sense, macro Weekly/Monthly views aren't those times.
Bookmarked +1.

[cAPSLOCK]

I find it odd that masterluc no longer posts on this forum. TBH I find Enky Nakamura, Josh Olszewicz and John Bollinger more useful to follow at present.

"FlibFlib" and "Dave the Wave" on Twitter also offer very good analysis.

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

I find it odd that masterluc no longer posts on this forum. TBH I find Enky Nakamura, Josh Olszewicz and John Bollinger more useful to follow at present.

"FlibFlib" and "Dave the Wave" on Twitter also offer very good analysis.

Elliott Wave is not that useful for trading cryptos IMO. Too many alternate wave counts. You are better off just waiting for a strong trend, buying on a pullback and using your judgment as a trader on where to set your stop losses and when to take profits. During the last bull run Fibonacci extensions were quite useful in setting profit targets, as was the 3 day RSI. Spend some time learning point and figure charting rather than Elliott Wave you will be rewarded.

Really the simple indicators can be all you need in a strong bull market. Take a look at the weekly BTC/USD Bitstamp chart and put up 50 and 200 simple moving averages. Look at the last bull market. That was a strong bull run and just trading the moving averages you would have gone long at $300 and exited at $9000. Now few expected a blow off top at $19666 but if you also monitored the 3 day RSI you could have held your position until 3 day RSI was over 92 and got out close to the top. You had warning to exit on the following dead cat bounce. Experienced traders went short then.

Again just following weekly 3 day RSI when that indicator dropped below 23 in January 2015 that was a clear signal to start opening longs. Anyone who did has been well rewarded. That ended the bear market. We are currently in a bull market but sentiment right now is neutral. You should have already bought thousands of dollars ago. If you want to go long now just dollar cost average or watch the 3 day RSI and start buying when that indicator is oversold at 30.

Don't follow anyone blindly you will likely get burnt. Learn to analyze markets yourself and make your own trading decisions. Input from other technicians is useful but take responsibility for your own trades. Stay away from day trading because the pros who actually do it for a living will eat you for a light snack. Concentrate on longer time frames. If you are too lazy to do the work just buy and hold.

[Gyrsur]

but Fibonacci retracements do work with Bitcoin. probably also extensions and expansions.

https://forums.babypips.com/t/fibonacci-extension-vs-fibonacci-expansion/128495/7

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

but Fibonacci retracements do work with Bitcoin.  

Of course, I never implied they did not. I have been using Fibonacci extensions and retracements for many years. They are much more useful than Elliott Wave. That is an example of an indicator that has a good track record with bitcoin, like 3 day RSI. Elliott Wave is dismal for bitcoin. PnF is very good as is Ichimoku.

[exstasie]

It would be an interesting scenario indeed. The max pain scenario. Everybody gets excited about the halving and instead price drops like a rock creating a wave of despair.

I don't think that's the max pain scenario. Too many people are bearish. Too many are saying things like "the halving is already priced in." I've seen a bunch of people claiming the stock-to-flow model has failed too.

People sound just like they did in early 2016. Remember what happened 2 months before the 2016 halving? (Hint: the price doubled!)

Drawing a squeezing wedge on the linear chart on macro level is pretty meaningless in my opinion.

I didn't want to be the one to call that out, but yes. I don't know what he's thinking.

Elliott Wave is not that useful for trading cryptos IMO. Too many alternate wave counts.

This isn't specific to crypto. Multiple alternative wave counts are necessary when analyzing any instrument.

[exstasie]

New post from Masterluc on Tradingview: Short term analysis: ending diagonal (SHORT)

Can't say I agree with him, but it's something to keep in mind.

I assume price traces giant triangle correction since ATH . It is interesting that B-waves inside have impulsive subcounts.

I think that's the first clue that we aren't in a big triangle.....