Analysis

[Wind_FURY]

Quoting masterluc/PentarhUdi's famous tradingview post of Dec 2, 2018

As the technology being adopted - it loosing its blowing popularity and leaving straight-style log trend while continue to grow in SQRT-style trend (green in picture) more smoothly. I had difficulties to draw this green trend using regular tools, so it is not really accurate.



Here's a SQRT-style trend.
Will honey badger stay in the chute; will she break red, will she break green?

It's practical. Because the liquidity required to push Bitcoin from $1 to $10,000 is magnitudes lesser than it would take to push Bitcoin from $10,000 to $100,000.

[Majormax]

My own gut feeling is that the strong overhead resistances of 10400 and 13500 will hold for an extended period. 7000 is reasonable support. Going to be a lot more boring than the 'herd' would like. If there is a new ATH, it may not be until 2021-2.

7000 not that far away now.  Hopefully the low comes in around that. That will be a higher low than the big 6400. The prospect of the halvening rise is receding now. Have to hope that this price action is not signalling a continuing long term bear market.

The problem (as has been very clear for 6 months), is that lower highs of 13500 and 10500 have held (the latter retested and lost again) and now they form very hard long term resistance.

I would guess this year will be a very long one (what with all the global issues).

[cAPSLOCK]

New post from Masterluc on Tradingview: Short term analysis: ending diagonal (SHORT)

Can't say I agree with him, but it's something to keep in mind.

I assume price traces giant triangle correction since ATH . It is interesting that B-waves inside have impulsive subcounts.

I think that's the first clue that we aren't in a big triangle.....

Another top called...  Nobody is perfect, but he certainly got this one right.  I just hope we don't have to go to 6k.

IMHO the fundamental environment is so crazy right now... who knows what will happen.

[gentlemand]

IMHO the fundamental environment is so crazy right now... who knows what will happen.

Yes. I would not be bothering with TA at present. There are already people saying it's back to business as usual. Let's revisit that in 2-3 more weeks when Donald is ranting through his ventilator and people are eating their own tootsies to survive.

It will be business as usual at some point. This point certainly isn't it.

[exstasie]

IMHO the fundamental environment is so crazy right now... who knows what will happen.

Yes. I would not be bothering with TA at present. There are already people saying it's back to business as usual. Let's revisit that in 2-3 more weeks when Donald is ranting through his ventilator and people are eating their own tootsies to survive.

It will be business as usual at some point. This point certainly isn't it.

Bottoms are only visible in hindsight. It's possible we are near (or have already seen) the bottom. That goes for both the stock market and BTC, both of which have a tendency towards overextended crashes and V-bottom recoveries that leave everyone chasing.

By the time sentiment is back to "business as usual" prices could be up 15-30% from here.

[kellrobinson]

IMHO the fundamental environment is so crazy right now... who knows what will happen.

Yes. I would not be bothering with TA at present. There are already people saying it's back to business as usual. Let's revisit that in 2-3 more weeks when Donald is ranting through his ventilator and people are eating their own tootsies to survive.

It will be business as usual at some point. This point certainly isn't it.

Bottoms are only visible in hindsight. It's possible we are near (or have already seen) the bottom. That goes for both the stock market and BTC, both of which have a tendency towards overextended crashes and V-bottom recoveries that leave everyone chasing.

By the time sentiment is back to "business as usual" prices could be up 15-30% from here.

It's business as usual right now,  People can't see it.

[Wind_FURY]

New post from Masterluc on Tradingview: Short term analysis: ending diagonal (SHORT)

Can't say I agree with him, but it's something to keep in mind.

I assume price traces giant triangle correction since ATH . It is interesting that B-waves inside have impulsive subcounts.

I think that's the first clue that we aren't in a big triangle.....

Another top called...  Nobody is perfect, but he certainly got this one right.  I just hope we don't have to go to 6k.

IMHO the fundamental environment is so crazy right now... who knows what will happen.

Why? That's very short-term thinking of you. If it crashes to $6,000 this year, to make new ATH on 2022 or 2023, wouldn't we be very thankful for the golden opportunity to buy another dip?

[cAPSLOCK]

New post from Masterluc on Tradingview: Short term analysis: ending diagonal (SHORT)

Can't say I agree with him, but it's something to keep in mind.

I assume price traces giant triangle correction since ATH . It is interesting that B-waves inside have impulsive subcounts.

I think that's the first clue that we aren't in a big triangle.....

Another top called...  Nobody is perfect, but he certainly got this one right.  I just hope we don't have to go to 6k.

IMHO the fundamental environment is so crazy right now... who knows what will happen.

Why? That's very short-term thinking of you. If it crashes to $6,000 this year, to make new ATH on 2022 or 2023, wouldn't we be very thankful for the golden opportunity to buy another dip?

Nothing short term in my thinking about Bitcoin.  I would like to see a higher low than what we saw in December.  That simple.

[Wind_FURY]

New post from Masterluc on Tradingview: Short term analysis: ending diagonal (SHORT)

Can't say I agree with him, but it's something to keep in mind.

I assume price traces giant triangle correction since ATH . It is interesting that B-waves inside have impulsive subcounts.

I think that's the first clue that we aren't in a big triangle.....

Another top called...  Nobody is perfect, but he certainly got this one right.  I just hope we don't have to go to 6k.

IMHO the fundamental environment is so crazy right now... who knows what will happen.

Why? That's very short-term thinking of you. If it crashes to $6,000 this year, to make new ATH on 2022 or 2023, wouldn't we be very thankful for the golden opportunity to buy another dip?

Nothing short term in my thinking about Bitcoin.  I would like to see a higher low than what we saw in December.  That simple.

But from my standpoint, why care where it goes today, and how/why, if we already know it's on its path to 6 digits? I HOPE we have to go to $6,000, shake out the weak-hands, and honey-badger don't care.

[exstasie]

But from my standpoint, why care where it goes today, and how/why, if we already know it's on its path to 6 digits?

Because 6 digits isn't guaranteed. Building and maintaining a bullish structure strengthens the fundamentals-based argument for BTC investment. Stock to flow, Metcalfe's law, network effect and all that are great, but bullish trends and Wyckoff structures really bring it all together.

With BTC back in the $6Ks, the entire bull trend from last December is now in question. Hats off to Masterluc on this one.......

[Wexlike]

I won't doubt this fucker anymore. /facepalm

[somac.]

But from my standpoint, why care where it goes today, and how/why, if we already know it's on its path to 6 digits?

Because 6 digits isn't guaranteed. Building and maintaining a bullish structure strengthens the fundamentals-based argument for BTC investment. Stock to flow, Metcalfe's law, network effect and all that are great, but bullish trends and Wyckoff structures really bring it all together.

With BTC back in the $6Ks, the entire bull trend from last December is now in question. Hats off to Masterluc on this one.......

And what did he say would happen after 6k

[exstasie]

With BTC back in the $6Ks, the entire bull trend from last December is now in question. Hats off to Masterluc on this one.......

And what did he say would happen after 6k

I don't know if he said explicitly. Based on how he drew his triangle bounds and his use of Elliott Wave, I assume he expects something along these lines:

[Wilhelm]

With BTC back in the $6Ks, the entire bull trend from last December is now in question. Hats off to Masterluc on this one.......

And what did he say would happen after 6k

I don't know if he said explicitly. Based on how he drew his triangle bounds and his use of Elliott Wave, I assume he expects something along these lines:

In about a month everyone has recovered from the panic.

Upward from the triangle seems a legit conclusion.

[Bossian]

New post from Masterluc on Tradingview: Short term analysis: ending diagonal (SHORT)

Can't say I agree with him, but it's something to keep in mind.

I assume price traces giant triangle correction since ATH . It is interesting that B-waves inside have impulsive subcounts.

I think that's the first clue that we aren't in a big triangle.....

Another top called...  Nobody is perfect, but he certainly got this one right.  I just hope we don't have to go to 6k.

IMHO the fundamental environment is so crazy right now... who knows what will happen.

Amazing call.

But there is bad news, I would like to have masterluc's opinion about this: how about the 6.4k support? His nice chart doesn't show what's next but I have a personal opinion that breaking below 6.4k means breaking below 5k eventually (probably for second semester).

Would also be glad to have a long term analysis on years 2022 and further. Trading can be a little tiresome, sometimes it's nice to sit back and do nothing for a few years.

[cAPSLOCK]

New post from Masterluc on Tradingview: Short term analysis: ending diagonal (SHORT)

Can't say I agree with him, but it's something to keep in mind.

I assume price traces giant triangle correction since ATH . It is interesting that B-waves inside have impulsive subcounts.

I think that's the first clue that we aren't in a big triangle.....

Another top called...  Nobody is perfect, but he certainly got this one right.  I just hope we don't have to go to 6k.

IMHO the fundamental environment is so crazy right now... who knows what will happen.

Amazing call.

But there is bad news, I would like to have masterluc's opinion about this: how about the 6.4k support? His nice chart doesn't show what's next but I have a personal opinion that breaking below 6.4k means breaking below 5k eventually (probably for second semester).

Would also be glad to have a long term analysis on years 2022 and further. Trading can be a little tiresome, sometimes it's nice to sit back and do nothing for a few years.

Hmm... there's your answer on the 6.4k support. :/

But like I said.  Fundamentals, or whatever we call the market Armageddon we are in right now are certainly causing a fairly extreme situation to unfold rather quickly... 

I really wish I were a trader... this is a traders dream market.

[cAPSLOCK]

Oh no the bullish halving narrative was just a trap 

I have thought all along that it almost HAS to follow a different path this time around.  But I did not imagine it would be the four horsemen of the apocalypse driving it all...

How does that Chinese curse go about interesting times?

[gentlemand]

Oh no the bullish halving narrative was just a trap 

Still is.

In the long run.

You can't have a change like that without an effect however you do need some demand and usage in place. I don't think we're going to see that for a while but it'll be back some day.

[figmentofmyass]

that was a $2500 drop today! this is what we get for writing off masterluc and his prophetic triangle eh?

he re-posted the idea on tradingview 8 hours ago with the following commentary:

Taking in mind this impressive fall I assume this is "surrender" phase and Bitcoin doomed now to rise to new highs.

My personal opinion - we'll never see such low numbers again, as price is at Weekly 200 SMA now.

But... If Weekly 200 SMA will be broken the music will fade...

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/iNSP9waV-Historical-IV-almost-completed/

[Majormax]

But from my standpoint, why care where it goes today, and how/why, if we already know it's on its path to 6 digits?

Because 6 digits isn't guaranteed. Building and maintaining a bullish structure strengthens the fundamentals-based argument for BTC investment. Stock to flow, Metcalfe's law, network effect and all that are great, but bullish trends and Wyckoff structures really bring it all together.

With BTC back in the $6Ks, the entire bull trend from last December is now in question. Hats off to Masterluc on this one.......

Looks like a full scale bear market now. If there is a bounce up to 6.5k, and it fails, then new lows (sub 3k) are possible this year. Already down to 4.8k.

Another low probability scenario is that the whole BTC project is failing, but lets not go there !

Anyway, the halving effect will not be as anticipated this time.