Analysis

[jadenunderhill]

that was a $2500 drop today! this is what we get for writing off masterluc and his prophetic triangle eh?

he re-posted the idea on tradingview 8 hours ago with the following commentary:

Taking in mind this impressive fall I assume this is "surrender" phase and Bitcoin doomed now to rise to new highs.

My personal opinion - we'll never see such low numbers again, as price is at Weekly 200 SMA now.

But... If Weekly 200 SMA will be broken the music will fade...

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/iNSP9waV-Historical-IV-almost-completed/

We are under  200 SMA

So, according to his idea, the music fades..

Now we are going to sub 1000

[marcus_of_augustus]

that was a $2500 drop today! this is what we get for writing off masterluc and his prophetic triangle eh?

he re-posted the idea on tradingview 8 hours ago with the following commentary:

Taking in mind this impressive fall I assume this is "surrender" phase and Bitcoin doomed now to rise to new highs.

My personal opinion - we'll never see such low numbers again, as price is at Weekly 200 SMA now.

But... If Weekly 200 SMA will be broken the music will fade...

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/iNSP9waV-Historical-IV-almost-completed/

We are under  200 SMA

So, according to his idea, the music fades..

Now we are going to sub 1000

It would take a weekly close under the 200 SMA ... still Friday the 13th for the cavalry to arrive.

[El duderino_]

I'm curious where we actually are going at..... I'm not to much of a doom and gloom type and do thing some are trying to take advantage through the news, but still the corona hype got some real fear in many humans, hope it doesn't get the best of people in times where they should think things out and have a sober mind ....

[Pseudo-Random]

What's happening is Crypto is Internet Tech.

It has become Wall St, and will rise & fall according to what the stock markets do.

Ever since ETF's, hedge funds & "institutional investor entities" got in a few years ago, that was it. It was no longer able to be something that goes up when the traditional finance markets go down.

Peter Schiff & Andreas Antonopoulos are correct. Bitcoin is a risk-on asset, for a long while now.

In fact even gold/silver struggle to really be risk-off, "honey badger" -type assets. Too much all-infiltrating financialization by Wall St.

Weapons, ammo, tools, vehicles, land, food, water, seeds, humans, animals, skills.

^Those are the true risk-off assets.

[jadenunderhill]

that was a $2500 drop today! this is what we get for writing off masterluc and his prophetic triangle eh?

he re-posted the idea on tradingview 8 hours ago with the following commentary:

Taking in mind this impressive fall I assume this is "surrender" phase and Bitcoin doomed now to rise to new highs.

My personal opinion - we'll never see such low numbers again, as price is at Weekly 200 SMA now.

But... If Weekly 200 SMA will be broken the music will fade...

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/iNSP9waV-Historical-IV-almost-completed/

We are under  200 SMA

So, according to his idea, the music fades..

Now we are going to sub 1000

It would take a weekly close under the 200 SMA ... still Friday the 13th for the cavalry to arrive.

I think we all understand, that there will be no cavalry. All markets are in sellof stage.

[exstasie]

It would take a weekly close under the 200 SMA ... still Friday the 13th for the cavalry to arrive.

Not sure if we can rely on any indicators now. The goal is IMO to make hodlers puke their coins before the next bull. How low and how long it will take is anybody's guess.

The market has always historically respected the 200-week MA. Holding below it will indicate something has changed.

I agree with you but if they take it too far, they are playing with fire. Overlapping into pre-2017 ranges and destroying the 10 year bullish structure isn't something the market is likely to easily recover from. Like Masterluc said, "the music will fade."

If the $3,850 low can hold, especially with a V-bottom, then the triangle scenario looks good. The proportions look great at the moment.

[Wind_FURY]

I won't doubt this fucker anymore. /facepalm

Hahaha.

Oh no the bullish halving narrative was just a trap 

The halving might already be priced in.  BUT, use the crash to buy the dip, and HODL. Every crash is a transfer of coins from weak hands to strong.

[cAPSLOCK]

that was a $2500 drop today! this is what we get for writing off masterluc and his prophetic triangle eh?

he re-posted the idea on tradingview 8 hours ago with the following commentary:

Taking in mind this impressive fall I assume this is "surrender" phase and Bitcoin doomed now to rise to new highs.

My personal opinion - we'll never see such low numbers again, as price is at Weekly 200 SMA now.

But... If Weekly 200 SMA will be broken the music will fade...

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/iNSP9waV-Historical-IV-almost-completed/

We are under  200 SMA

So, according to his idea, the music fades..

Now we are going to sub 1000

It would take a weekly close under the 200 SMA ... still Friday the 13th for the cavalry to arrive.

I think we all understand, that there will be no cavalry. All markets are in sellof stage.

Are you/have you sold then?  You seem pretty sure.  I am less so, so I am leaving my value on the table.  It's definitely a scary time.

[jadenunderhill]

that was a $2500 drop today! this is what we get for writing off masterluc and his prophetic triangle eh?

he re-posted the idea on tradingview 8 hours ago with the following commentary:

Taking in mind this impressive fall I assume this is "surrender" phase and Bitcoin doomed now to rise to new highs.

My personal opinion - we'll never see such low numbers again, as price is at Weekly 200 SMA now.

But... If Weekly 200 SMA will be broken the music will fade...

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/iNSP9waV-Historical-IV-almost-completed/

We are under  200 SMA

So, according to his idea, the music fades..

Now we are going to sub 1000

It would take a weekly close under the 200 SMA ... still Friday the 13th for the cavalry to arrive.

I think we all understand, that there will be no cavalry. All markets are in sellof stage.

Are you/have you sold then?  You seem pretty sure.  I am less so, so I am leaving my value on the table.  It's definitely a scary time.

Yes, I've sold 3 coins at 5500 today

[gentlemand]

Yes, I've sold 3 coins at 5500 today

And what are your plans now? Leave for good? Come back another day and buy back in lower?

If you're considering timing it that has plenty of space for it to go wrong. If you're gone for good then I hope you made a nice profit.

[figmentofmyass]

I think we all understand, that there will be no cavalry. All markets are in sellof stage.

Are you/have you sold then?  You seem pretty sure.  I am less so, so I am leaving my value on the table.  It's definitely a scary time.

it's scary as hell! i remember feeling a lot like this during those epic plunges in jan or aug 2015. hodlers finally capitulate and puke up their coins, then the market hammers back up leaving them nocoiners.

i'm trying to draw on those experiences now because it's tempting to capitulate with everyone else. i'm glad i managed to sell some coin in the $9000s and $10000s but fuck, i sure wish i sold more! i did not expect this epic crash at all.

it's gonna take some time to rebuild from here. the bubble (if it's still on the menu at all) has been obviously been postponed.

[marcus_of_augustus]

It would take a weekly close under the 200 SMA ... still Friday the 13th for the cavalry to arrive.

Not sure if we can rely on any indicators now. The goal is IMO to make hodlers puke their coins before the next bull. How low and how long it will take is anybody's guess.

The market has always historically respected the 200-week MA. Holding below it will indicate something has changed.

I agree with you but if they take it too far, they are playing with fire. Overlapping into pre-2017 ranges and destroying the 10 year bullish structure isn't something the market is likely to easily recover from. Like Masterluc said, "the music will fade."

If the $3,850 low can hold, especially with a V-bottom, then the triangle scenario looks good. The proportions look great at the moment.

Interesting. Who do you think "they" is this instance?

Are "they" bitcoin's friends or bitcoin enemies? If they are enemies perhaps the whole charade is orchestrated to get a close under the 200WMA and ultimately destroy bitcoin. Then they fight you.

[exstasie]

The market has always historically respected the 200-week MA. Holding below it will indicate something has changed.

I agree with you but if they take it too far, they are playing with fire. Overlapping into pre-2017 ranges and destroying the 10 year bullish structure isn't something the market is likely to easily recover from. Like Masterluc said, "the music will fade."

If the $3,850 low can hold, especially with a V-bottom, then the triangle scenario looks good. The proportions look great at the moment.

Interesting. Who do you think "they" is this instance?

Are "they" bitcoin's friends or bitcoin enemies? If they are enemies perhaps the whole charade is orchestrated to get a close under the 200WMA and ultimately destroy bitcoin. Then they fight you.

Nothing so nefarious. By "they" I mean what Richard Wyckoff called "the Composite Man."

“…all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it.”

It ties into something called the maximum pain theory. In a nutshell, the market likes to go where it will inflict the most pain on the most traders and investors at once (that's max pain theory) and the Composite Man is the fictitious whale traders who are trading against us. He's the one accumulating our panic dumps and selling into public exuberance before a crash.

It doesn't matter if the Composite Man (or whales manipulating the price) really exist or not. It all ties into market sentiment. When longs heavily pile into the market deep into an uptrend, when everyone finally agrees the only possible direction is up, no one is left to buy. Max pain theory warrants a crash. It's the Composite Man who is selling to all these greedy top buyers.

The only time Coinbase has ever shown weekly volume this high, it was the week of the 2017 top. That tells a lot about the extreme levels of selling volume we just saw. Meanwhile, Bitmex interest rates are insanely in the negative and Bitfinex shorts have tripled.

That leads me to ask, which direction is maximum pain? Who was buying into all that panic selling the last 2 days? Who was selling into all the panic buying in December 2017? The Composite Man, and you always want to trade with him, not against him.

[Wind_FURY]

Yes, I've sold 3 coins at 5500 today

And what are your plans now? Leave for good? Come back another day and buy back in lower?

If you're considering timing it that has plenty of space for it to go wrong. If you're gone for good then I hope you made a nice profit.

He didn't reply. He might be very busy calling his/her exchange/bank to cancel his/her wire transfer, and trying to get all his fiat back to his/her exchange account, and buy Bitcoin again. Hahaha.

The path to FOMO.

[spiderbrain]

The market has always historically respected the 200-week MA. Holding below it will indicate something has changed.

I agree with you but if they take it too far, they are playing with fire. Overlapping into pre-2017 ranges and destroying the 10 year bullish structure isn't something the market is likely to easily recover from. Like Masterluc said, "the music will fade."

If the $3,850 low can hold, especially with a V-bottom, then the triangle scenario looks good. The proportions look great at the moment.

Interesting. Who do you think "they" is this instance?

Are "they" bitcoin's friends or bitcoin enemies? If they are enemies perhaps the whole charade is orchestrated to get a close under the 200WMA and ultimately destroy bitcoin. Then they fight you.

Nothing so nefarious. By "they" I mean what Richard Wyckoff called "the Composite Man."

“…all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it.”

It ties into something called the maximum pain theory. In a nutshell, the market likes to go where it will inflict the most pain on the most traders and investors at once (that's max pain theory) and the Composite Man is the fictitious whale traders who are trading against us. He's the one accumulating our panic dumps and selling into public exuberance before a crash.

It doesn't matter if the Composite Man (or whales manipulating the price) really exist or not. It all ties into market sentiment. When longs heavily pile into the market deep into an uptrend, when everyone finally agrees the only possible direction is up, no one is left to buy. Max pain theory warrants a crash. It's the Composite Man who is selling to all these greedy top buyers.

The only time Coinbase has ever shown weekly volume this high, it was the week of the 2017 top. That tells a lot about the extreme levels of selling volume we just saw. Meanwhile, Bitmex interest rates are insanely in the negative and Bitfinex shorts have tripled.

That leads me to ask, which direction is maximum pain? Who was buying into all that panic selling the last 2 days? Who was selling into all the panic buying in December 2017? The Composite Man, and you always want to trade with him, not against him.

Nice analysis.

The volume on Bitstamp yesterday wasn't that amazing, although I feel like we're warming up for a bottom, and perhaps it's happened already. After every bubble the bottom has been around the peak of the previous bubble, so I imagine there are a lot of old school buy orders waiting around 1100-1500. At those prices it won't need much fiat to make a floor there, and once there's a floor then it''ll likely just ping back up to these kinds of prices again.

[Majormax]

It would take a weekly close under the 200 SMA ... still Friday the 13th for the cavalry to arrive.

Not sure if we can rely on any indicators now. The goal is IMO to make hodlers puke their coins before the next bull. How low and how long it will take is anybody's guess.

The market has always historically respected the 200-week MA. Holding below it will indicate something has changed.

I agree with you but if they take it too far, they are playing with fire. Overlapping into pre-2017 ranges and destroying the 10 year bullish structure isn't something the market is likely to easily recover from. Like Masterluc said, "the music will fade."

If the $3,850 low can hold, especially with a V-bottom, then the triangle scenario looks good. The proportions look great at the moment.

Agree. The technicals of this move are bad.  At the very worst moment of carnage , the 7000 level should have provided support to remain bullish. at the very least 6400 to remain neutral. The very last line is that 3850, below that, price is never going to recover.

The 10 year bullish structure has been nearly destroyed according to the chart. Selling now would be the technical traders unquestioned response. Anything near 6000 would be a chance to get out.

The volume wasn't high enough for a panic low either. That could be expected at around 100% market cap in  a day.

Cautionary note : this is merely TA, but it is a very classic case.

[Majormax]

The volume on Bitstamp yesterday wasn't that amazing, although I feel like we're warming up for a bottom, and perhaps it's happened already. After every bubble the bottom has been around the peak of the previous bubble, so I imagine there are a lot of old school buy orders waiting around 1100-1500. At those prices it won't need much fiat to make a floor there, and once there's a floor then it''ll likely just ping back up to these kinds of prices again.

That is a good point as well.  The true bottom of each bear market has actually been quite a way above the top of the previous bull , only very close if you consider the transitory spikes.

A second thought to my post above :   Likely the bear market of 2018-202x is not yet over. A slow consolidation above 3800, or a spike down to sub-2000 might be the end. ...but then we would have to go through crypto winter, and it would be a long one.  Possible 2025 before full recovery. That is not so far out of line with the lengthening cycles.

The alternative is not good and best not to discuss.

[jadenunderhill]

Yes, I've sold 3 coins at 5500 today

And what are your plans now? Leave for good? Come back another day and buy back in lower?

If you're considering timing it that has plenty of space for it to go wrong. If you're gone for good then I hope you made a nice profit.

No, I have some more coins in stash. But I'll try to sell more. It would be great to see short bounce to 7K or so. . IMHO there will be 2500-2800 in the end of this year. So, I'll buy som back. Also I'll keep few coins for better times..
PS: Sold another 2 coins just now.

[jadenunderhill]

Yes, I've sold 3 coins at 5500 today

And what are your plans now? Leave for good? Come back another day and buy back in lower?

If you're considering timing it that has plenty of space for it to go wrong. If you're gone for good then I hope you made a nice profit.

He didn't reply. He might be very busy calling his/her exchange/bank to cancel his/her wire transfer, and trying to get all his fiat back to his/her exchange account, and buy Bitcoin again. Hahaha.

The path to FOMO.

Good guess, but no))

[exstasie]

The volume on Bitstamp yesterday wasn't that amazing, although I feel like we're warming up for a bottom, and perhaps it's happened already.

I would look at Coinbase, much bigger market. The week isn't even done and this is the second highest on record. On Bitstamp, it was the biggest daily volume since the February 2018 v-bottom so not inconsequential.

A second thought to my post above :   Likely the bear market of 2018-202x is not yet over. A slow consolidation above 3800, or a spike down to sub-2000 might be the end. ...but then we would have to go through crypto winter, and it would be a long one.  Possible 2025 before full recovery. That is not so far out of line with the lengthening cycles.

Here's an idea based on Masterluc's triangle: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5196072.msg54020305#msg54020305