Analysis

[Wekkel]

MasterLuc May 17 : Just dropping some stones into short term bearish pan. Hidden bearish divergences on daily chart.

On the other hand, the weekly close was a bullish engulfing. Given the quick rebound to $10K, I'm not putting too much faith into that bearish divergence until we break last week's lows, or at least the daily lower BB (currently $8,330).

I also think the divergence is weak. But a breakdown downwards would not be unexpected. For now, we're still in limbo.

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[Bossian]

Latest update https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/iNSP9waV-Historical-IV-almost-completed/
I like this trader, seems like very level-headed which is the best quality in the field.

[Bossian]

A key price for the bulls is 9.4k. If I was a bull I would be praying Bitcoin price can close this month at 9.4k (or over), but as the above chart shows, the chances of this happening are quite slim.

Still confident we go down from there, only fear I have at the moment is there seems to be (almost) a consensus among traders that Bitcoin price will go down for the whole year, and I hope the whales won't play with us and wreck our stop losses  

[Millionero]

a consensus among traders that Bitcoin price will go down for the whole year

Bullish!

[exstasie]

a consensus among traders that Bitcoin price will go down for the whole year

Bullish!

Yep, bullish if true.

There are however plenty of bulls in my feed, more than a few of whom are planning out the next parabolic bubble. Swap interest has remained positive for quite a while so Bitmex traders aren't heavily shorting. Bitfinex BTC short levels are low and still dropping, longs dropping too though. ETH longs are very high.

Sentiment seems mixed at best, and probably actually bullish.

[leyton11]

a consensus among traders that Bitcoin price will go down for the whole year

Bullish!

Yep, bullish if true.

There are however plenty of bulls in my feed, more than a few of whom are planning out the next parabolic bubble. Swap interest has remained positive for quite a while so Bitmex traders aren't heavily shorting. Bitfinex BTC short levels are low and still dropping, longs dropping too though. ETH longs are very high.

Sentiment seems mixed at best, and probably actually bullish.

Yes, I still have a medium to long-term bullish view. because there's no reason for the price of crypto to go down. Although the disease was still there, the stocks were still skyrocketing in the US. That shows that big investors are sniffing the potential of financial market in the future. I think if I just buy ETH now and hold it for 1 year, our profits could be double.

[chunglam]

masterluc May 29 comment : All right, price doesn't respect short term trend line. I see it likes triangles now. Okay. Hit or miss. Resolution is close.

[Wind_FURY]

masterluc May 29 comment : All right, price doesn't respect short term trend line. I see it likes triangles now. Okay. Hit or miss. Resolution is close.

I believe that last "triangle" that looks like this current "triangle" was the forerunner of a crash that went to $5,000.

Be ready? Buy the dip, and HODL?

[Majormax]

masterluc May 29 comment : All right, price doesn't respect short term trend line. I see it likes triangles now. Okay. Hit or miss. Resolution is close.

The pennant formation is a classic leader to resolution. The end of the pennant often seems to take longer than it should.

That overhead resistance is very strong, with 10 months of lower highs and classic failures at 13500, 10500 (twice) and 10000 (twice). It should worry potential long traders.

If there is a breakout to 11k+ that would be the first bullish sign. 14k cleared would negate the bear trend. An alternative likely scenario is a breakdown towards 6500, which should hold for at least the rest of the year, to build proper support.

As far as consensus goes, yes, I feel the bulls are most hopeful atm, but that could be changed by a decent breakdown from here, as the hopes of 10k+ are very strong.

[JayJuanGee]

masterluc May 29 comment : All right, price doesn't respect short term trend line. I see it likes triangles now. Okay. Hit or miss. Resolution is close.

The pennant formation is a classic leader to resolution. The end of the pennant often seems to take longer than it should.

That overhead resistance is very strong, with 10 months of lower highs and classic failures at 13500, 10500 (twice) and 10000 (twice). It should worry potential long traders.

This kitty cat is not worried, because he knows that resistance looks strong until it is not, then the kitty cat ends up laughing all the way to the bank (as has happened several times previously.. and no real reason to believe that history is not going to come close to repeating itself in some kind of financially meaningful way).  We have seen such doom and gloom fearing of resistance scenarios play out many times in bitcoinlandia...  so should HODLers be taking any chances to NOT making sure that they are adequately stacked, stocked and ready for UP?

If there is a breakout to 11k+ that would be the first bullish sign.

What are the odds of breaking above $11k on this particular run?  Maybe in your more bearish view you put the odds at less than 35%, and I might be approaching the 40% arena because I am more bullish, but still the difference in our outlook might not be very different, and hopefully our actions (of stacking and stocking up) are not much different, either... but I conjecture that both you (and people who follow your doom and gloom pronouncements) might end up erring too much in terms of failing and refusing to materially and sufficiently act in the stacking and stocking up direction.. just in case.   

14k cleared would negate the bear trend.

After $14k-ish, I am expecting some resistance in the $17k to $17.3k arena... but gosh, who knows in bitcoin?  Do you have a next resistance level that you are considering above $14k-ish?

An alternative likely scenario is a breakdown towards 6500, which should hold for at least the rest of the year, to build proper support.

I could see that... but of course, going down that far could also lead to a certain number of attempts at strong challenges to support.. but surely $6.5k is more than reasonable as a tentative assertion of a likely bottom for the coming 7 months or so.

As far as consensus goes, yes, I feel the bulls are most hopeful atm, but that could be changed by a decent breakdown from here, as the hopes of 10k+ are very strong.

I can see that, too... hahahahahaaha  Even though we have been largely bouncing in the lower to mid $9ks in the past 10 days or so, this battle is really likely to be trying to keep BTC prices sufficiently below $10k in order that retail does not start to FOMO buy too much in the event that we get too close to $10k, again... so sure, we will see... we will see.. nail biting.. and even difficult to say how long BTC prices can be kept in this range.. and like I said in several other posts in the past couple of weeks, I am not going to get too excited about any BTC prices that bounce between about $7,800 and $10,200... even though when the BTC price gets close to either end of the range, sure, I might start getting excited, even though I said that I wasn't going to .... call me a liar, if you will....   

[exstasie]

masterluc May 29 comment : All right, price doesn't respect short term trend line. I see it likes triangles now. Okay. Hit or miss. Resolution is close.

Yep, it's beginning to show the hallmarks of a triangle. Until the D wave is confirmed, $10K and $8.6K are the crucial pivots to break. Coincidentally, that's exactly where the daily upper and lower BBs are, respectively.

Get ready for a very powerful move within the next week or so!

Sentiment is feeling a little too bullish: Bitfinex shorts are dropping and already low, longs are rising, and generally there seems to be strong expectations for breaking $10K. On the other hand you might call it a bullish triangle given that it's a sideways consolidation following a larger uptrend. Furthermore the weekly and monthly uptrends still look quite strong. As I said in my thread I'm pretty neutral, somewhere on the spectrum of 60/40 bullish to 50/50.

At least the breakout range is getting tighter and tighter.

[JayJuanGee]

masterluc May 29 comment : All right, price doesn't respect short term trend line. I see it likes triangles now. Okay. Hit or miss. Resolution is close.

Yep, it's beginning to show the hallmarks of a triangle. Until the D wave is confirmed, $10K and $8.6K are the crucial pivots to break. Coincidentally, that's exactly where the daily upper and lower BBs are, respectively.

Get ready for a very powerful move within the next week or so!

Sentiment is feeling a little too bullish: Bitfinex shorts are dropping and already low, longs are rising, and generally there seems to be strong expectations for breaking $10K. On the other hand you might call it a bullish triangle given that it's a sideways consolidation following a larger uptrend. Furthermore the weekly and monthly uptrends still look quite strong. As I said in my thread I'm pretty neutral, somewhere on the spectrum of 60/40 bullish to 50/50.

At least the breakout range is getting tighter and tighter.

Yeah.. its going to break up all the way to $9,900, and then it will break back down all the way to $8,200, which ends up being a BIG SO WHAT.  At least for me.  But hey, not like any of this can be rushed unless someone might have an extra $50million lying around to try to prod matters, and that might not even be enough.

[Wind_FURY]

masterluc May 29 comment : All right, price doesn't respect short term trend line. I see it likes triangles now. Okay. Hit or miss. Resolution is close.

The pennant formation is a classic leader to resolution. The end of the pennant often seems to take longer than it should.

That overhead resistance is very strong, with 10 months of lower highs and classic failures at 13500, 10500 (twice) and 10000 (twice). It should worry potential long traders.

This kitty cat is not worried, because he knows that resistance looks strong until it is not, then the kitty cat ends up laughing all the way to the bank (as has happened several times previously.. and no real reason to believe that history is not going to come close to repeating itself in some kind of financially meaningful way).  We have seen such doom and gloom fearing of resistance scenarios play out many times in bitcoinlandia...  so should HODLers be taking any chances to NOT making sure that they are adequately stacked, stocked and ready for UP

NO, the smart HODLers SHOULD have bought the dip already, and ARE stacked, stocked, and ready.

I don't know honestly how I can continue buying the dip though under $10,000, it might be the last one. COVID-19 changed my monthly budget.

[Bossian]

Looks like we will again get rejected at 10.5k?

Or... go to 11.9k because there is a CME gap at this price?   previous gap at 9.8k was filled, so you never know, 11.9k could be achieved before filling another gap at a much lower price, 3.5k   would mean 12k is the top for 2020 even though I am still confident we will not get past 10.5k, could be wrong though, wait and see.

[chunglam]

masterluc new comment: (2/6/20)

Trade closed: target reached: The target of local short-term triangle is above $11000. Which will trigger break of long term resistance line at around $10000. And this will trigger break of giant long term triangle with target well above all time high.

This is a start of long term bull run. It probably will take around 4 years. After that world will see 10 years of bearish activity.

[cAPSLOCK]

Aaaaand...

[exstasie]

The target of local short-term triangle is above $11000. Which will trigger break of long term resistance line at around $10000. And this will trigger break of giant long term triangle with target well above all time high.

This is a start of long term bull run. It probably will take around 4 years. After that world will see 10 years of bearish activity.

He spoke prematurely. This is why I focus on horizontal resistance (monthly, yearly pivots at $10.5K) rather than trend lines. Trend line breaks are not reliable. Pivot breaks are everything. Here's a look at that short term triangle. Breakout failed:



I still agree with his long term idea that we are near the end of a Historical Wave IV. It could still be months before it's complete though.

[John999]

Bitcoin is just a trainwreck right now. Waiting for big daddy SP500 to tell him in which direction to go 

[gentlemand]

Waiting for big daddy SP500 to tell him in which direction to go 

Big daddy has now become a shitcoin in itself. I wonder how this is going to affect crypto when reality has left the room in supposedly 'real world' markets too. Everyone appears to have decided it's a number they want to keep going up no matter what's staring them in the face. Either this is a brief spasm or things are going to get way weirder. 

[John999]

Waiting for big daddy SP500 to tell him in which direction to go 

Big daddy has now become a shitcoin in itself. I wonder how this is going to affect crypto when reality has left the room in supposedly 'real world' markets too. Everyone appears to have decided it's a number they want to keep going up no matter what's staring them in the face. Either this is a brief spasm or things are going to get way weirder. 

Couldn't agree more. Weird times indeed.