Analysis

[kellrobinson]

I know y'all like pretty pictures



The weekly highs and lows are run through that quadratic on the left to render the traces.
The blue cyclic function follows a quadrennial cycle of bull and bear synchronous with halvings, the first one which occurred in 2012.

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[JollyGood]

There is nothing stopping people from using the opportunity afforded by the current economical crisis as a cover for participating in pump and dump strategies. It will be difficult if not impossible to ascertain the distinction between real regular long term investors transferring from stocks in to crypto versus those regularly investing in crypto but with a view to pump then dump therefore no graphical or statistical data can be cross-referenced.

Recent rallies of bankrupt companies stocks remind me of movements in altcoin markets, with their pump'n'dumps and trading of useless assets when there is basically nothing left behind them...

It kinda looks like the crypto traders have flooded the stock markets, or maybe just the same type of people who traded crypto, are now actively trading stocks . The traces of crypto trading mentality seem to be present in mainstream financial markets ATM.

This is just an impression though...

[Wind_FURY]

Recent rallies of bankrupt companies stocks remind me of movements in altcoin markets, with their pump'n'dumps and trading of useless assets when there is basically nothing left behind them...

It kinda looks like the crypto traders have flooded the stock markets, or maybe just the same type of people who traded crypto, are now actively trading stocks . The traces of crypto trading mentality seem to be present in mainstream financial markets ATM.

This is just an impression though...

This is why Bitcoin was invented by Satoshi. Do you remember his first message on the blockchain? It was to be an asset to be hedged against our current fraudulent system.

[JayJuanGee]

In other words, $10k has more likelihood of becoming the floor within the next two years rather than the ceiling.

Well. it will either become the floor or the ceiling, ( maybe both) that's TA.


Ceiling until 2021, floor after 2022 , maybe. I am inclined to think it might be longer in time, but I am always upgrading my future view as price evolves.

Fair enough that you upgrade your views with the passage of time and the changing dynamics of the market... Surely is a good thing, and no need to get paralyzed by these matters.. by adapting your theories.

Nonetheless, it is interesting to me (and maybe a bit frustrating too) that you seem to largely discount currently persuasive BTC price prediction models...

We will see.. carrying out the sub $10k until late 2021 is a long time in bitcoin, and as I mentioned several times, I think the odds are quite highly against such an outcome, so we will see how it plays out...

I am looking forward to pointing at you in the near future (and hopefully laughing), before late 2021 to show you that $10k has become the floor...    little dumb things like that in life give me many pleasures.  

Sure, I might be a little premature with this citttteeeeee post, but you gotta be feeling as if you had been a bit too bearish in mid-March, Majormax, no?  not that you had ever been too bearish, previously, right?        You can never be too bearish, right?  Ok... I am getting off topic.

Gotta get in my little digs, when I can.  

You can see that I am excited, right?  

Anyhow, I am not going to proclaim victory yet, but if we get above $13,880 in the near future (let's say less than 3 months), I am going to really start beginning to suggest a kind of feeling that 4 digits are over... even though we all can appreciate that nothing is really guaranteed in bitcoinlandia.

Furthermore, the next resistance after $13,880 seems to be about in the $17,250 arena.. and, yeah, I concede that we need to get past $13,880 before $17,250 becomes relevant... and sure.. we cannot even be sure that we are solidly above $10k, yet. I will concede that.

but I will also assert that we are not even close to 2021 or 2022 in terms of the kinds of timeline considerations that you were setting forth in your mid-March framing of the situation, Majormax.. AmiNOTrite?    

[JayJuanGee]

Recent rallies of bankrupt companies stocks remind me of movements in altcoin markets, with their pump'n'dumps and trading of useless assets when there is basically nothing left behind them...

It kinda looks like the crypto traders have flooded the stock markets, or maybe just the same type of people who traded crypto, are now actively trading stocks . The traces of crypto trading mentality seem to be present in mainstream financial markets ATM.

This is just an impression though...

This is why Bitcoin was invented by Satoshi. Do you remember his first message on the blockchain? It was to be an asset to be hedged against our current fraudulent system.

I guess it's the same for BSV since it's pumping along? BSV a safe heaven from the evil us dollar 

BSV is not the same, even if there might be some temporary pumpening of that crap scam coin and some of the other cryptos... .

You should realize that.   

guys should not be throwing around amorphous terms, such as crypto... and worse yet, if the various bcash scams such as bch and bsv trying to present themselves as if they were the same thing.. and people buying into those scams could end up getting screwed at any time.. or hoping to screw someone else with such smoke and mirrors nonsense.

[JayJuanGee]

Recent rallies of bankrupt companies stocks remind me of movements in altcoin markets, with their pump'n'dumps and trading of useless assets when there is basically nothing left behind them...

It kinda looks like the crypto traders have flooded the stock markets, or maybe just the same type of people who traded crypto, are now actively trading stocks . The traces of crypto trading mentality seem to be present in mainstream financial markets ATM.

This is just an impression though...

This is why Bitcoin was invented by Satoshi. Do you remember his first message on the blockchain? It was to be an asset to be hedged against our current fraudulent system.

I guess it's the same for BSV since it's pumping along? BSV a safe heaven from the evil us dollar  

BSV is not the same, even if there might be some temporary pumpening of that crap scam coin and some of the other cryptos... .

You should realize that.  

guys should not be throwing around amorphous terms, such as crypto... and worse yet, if the various bcash scams such as bch and bsv trying to present themselves as if they were the same thing.. and people buying into those scams could end up getting screwed at any time.. or hoping to screw someone else with such smoke and mirrors nonsense.

That's my point. No bull market until scam coins die. But hey just my 2 cents  

O.k.  It seems that I misread you.   Sorry about that.

Personally, I understand that there are a lot of scam coins but I doubt that bitcoin gives any shits about them in terms of whether it pumps or not.

We already had our BTC correction that lasted a bit more than 2.5 years so far... and the various scam coins are along for the ride for any pump..

A lot of the scam coins were purged between 2018 and 2019.. but surely some of them are still going to be able to have some pumpenings.. and surely many of us bitcoiners are not going to be fucking around with trying to figure them out, but there are still likely to be a decent amount of snot-nosed 14 year olds making money on those scamcoins, even if some of them get burnt along the way too.

I just don't buy the thesis that the shitcoins have to die first... but I would not complain if they did.    

[marcus_of_augustus]

I feel like mindrust read too much into this thread and lost the long term picture, which so far has been uniformly bullish.

[gentlemand]

Here's a brand spanking new chart from the little fella who got this thread rolling in the first place all those years ago if you like that sort of thing.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/BiymtBy3-Some-short-term-thoughts/

He seems to be in a rather confident mood.

That's my point. No bull market until scam coins die. But hey just my 2 cents  

For better or worse you will make more money on the shitforks getting in now than you will on BTC in a bubbly scenario, and exiting at the right moment of course. That's not tasteful but it's almost certainly true. It's 'Bitcoin' but it's 'cheaper' and that shit never gets old for the waves of hungry newcomers. They will never die. They may fade over time but not this time.

[600watt]

Here's a brand spanking new chart from the little fella who got this thread rolling in the first place all those years ago if you like that sort of thing.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/BiymtBy3-Some-short-term-thoughts/

He seems to be in a rather confident mood.

That's my point. No bull market until scam coins die. But hey just my 2 cents  

For better or worse you will make more money on the shitforks getting in now than you will on BTC in a bubbly scenario, and exiting at the right moment of course. That's not tasteful but it's almost certainly true. It's 'Bitcoin' but it's 'cheaper' and that shit never gets old for the waves of hungry newcomers. They will never die. They may fade over time but not this time.

wanted to merit your post because it seems rational but noticed that I just cannot do it. there are tiny traces of idealism left, lines that cannot be crossed...

[marcus_of_augustus]

whoa, masterluc delivers the goods.

This is so far outside most expectations ... so it could actually be right.

[drays]

Here's a brand spanking new chart from the little fella who got this thread rolling in the first place all those years ago if you like that sort of thing.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/BiymtBy3-Some-short-term-thoughts/

He seems to be in a rather confident mood.

Thanks for posting this. Sometimes I forget this thread is actually dedicated to masterluc's analysis. We're just hanging out here
Looks quite encouraging, especially after viewing an intimidating nightmare scenario posted by the second analyst I follow here.. Frankly speaking, I currently only follow those two, and when looked together, they provide somewhat strange view.. lets call it 'balanced' view

That's my point. No bull market until scam coins die. But hey just my 2 cents  

For better or worse you will make more money on the shitforks getting in now than you will on BTC in a bubbly scenario, and exiting at the right moment of course. That's not tasteful but it's almost certainly true. It's 'Bitcoin' but it's 'cheaper' and that shit never gets old for the waves of hungry newcomers. They will never die. They may fade over time but not this time.

Well, thats true... But I guess different people here mean different things saying 'shitcoins' or 'shitforks'... Wouldn't elaborate more on the topic, as "the little fella who got this thread rolling in the first place" is a prominent altcoin hater, so discussing alts might be not appropriate here.

[kellrobinson]

whoa, masterluc delivers the goods.

This is so far outside most expectations ... so it could actually be right.

Bitcoin will moon as it has done before.
Luc has the direction right, but as for the timing...  I think the corn needs to build up some momentum.  We'll see gainz this year but wait until 2021 for tha monster fomo bubble, if one comes, and crash in '22.

[exstasie]

This is a very bold prediction. I personally don't predict a new all time high this year. I also believe a big crash is ahead of us, next few weeks.

With the stock market running so high above the fast DMAs, I wouldn't be surprised at a scary and severe pullback. BTC would naturally follow.

"Crash" is probably an exaggeration. If panic hits hard I could see the weekly CME gap ~$9,600 getting filled on a wick, but ultimately I think the $10K area will be confirmed as support.

As long as Bitcoin price does not cross $13800 there is no reason to be a bull.

The market has held for 5+ weeks above the yearly resistance at $10.5K. That was the first higher high since October 2019. Pretty big deal. Could it be a bull trap? Technically yes, but I wouldn't count on it and I certainly wouldn't be shorting Bitcoin right now.

[kellrobinson]

I certainly wouldn't be shorting Bitcoin right now.

Safer to short on the downside of the four-year cycle.  Right now we're just coming off a time of consolidation following the bottom.  Leaving Kansas and entering the high plains of eastern Colorado, one feels the land rising and sees the Rocky Mountains in the distance.  Denver here we come, yippy-yi-yo-ki-ay!  Pikes Peak or bust!

[ssmc2]

Monthly close today is huge

[exstasie]

Monthly close today is huge

What do you make of it? It's almost a perfect spinning top doji. I take that to mean shorter term market indecision. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinning-top.asp

In the first half of 2017, we saw multiple similar dojis followed by severe shakeouts (March-April, June-July), even though the broader market trend was ultimately bullish. I wonder if we're looking at a similar situation now.

[ssmc2]

Monthly close today is huge

What do you make of it? It's almost a perfect spinning top doji. I take that to mean shorter term market indecision. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinning-top.asp

In the first half of 2017, we saw multiple similar dojis followed by severe shakeouts (March-April, June-July), even though the broader market trend was ultimately bullish. I wonder if we're looking at a similar situation now.

That wouldn't surprise me in the least 

[Wind_FURY]

Monthly close today is huge

What do you make of it? It's almost a perfect spinning top doji. I take that to mean shorter term market indecision. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinning-top.asp

In the first half of 2017, we saw multiple similar dojis followed by severe shakeouts (March-April, June-July), even though the broader market trend was ultimately bullish. I wonder if we're looking at a similar situation now.

That wouldn't surprise me in the least  

Plus if you view the situation from a fundamental standpoint, Bitcoin is still very small. How many actual, dedicated users does it have? Less than 1% of the global population, but it's priced at "only" a 5-figure valuation.

Bitcoin's price ceiling is VERY high in my opinion.

[Wexlike]

New post by masterluc: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/KF0wThdz-Regarding-current-market-actions/

As you can see, $10k level is very important for Bitcoin and was under siege multiple times in the past. From downside... Now the battle is going on from upside. It takes more time than I personally expected, but this doesn't surprise me much when I look backwards.

If Bitcoin hold $10k on weekly basis (i.e. weekly candle will not close below) - it will be a strong ground for further growth. And I'm sure it will.

You can also see blue trend escaping from giant consolidation triangle. As long as price didn't break it down - bullish development is fine. And as long as price is at bottom trend line - my suggestion is to buy.

[exstasie]

New post by masterluc: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/KF0wThdz-Regarding-current-market-actions/

As you can see, $10k level is very important for Bitcoin and was under siege multiple times in the past. From downside... Now the battle is going on from upside. It takes more time than I personally expected, but this doesn't surprise me much when I look backwards.

If Bitcoin hold $10k on weekly basis (i.e. weekly candle will not close below) - it will be a strong ground for further growth. And I'm sure it will.

You can also see blue trend escaping from giant consolidation triangle. As long as price didn't break it down - bullish development is fine. And as long as price is at bottom trend line - my suggestion is to buy.

I suspect he is correct about the weekly candle closing above $10K. That still leaves room for a panic wick into the $9,000s and a fill of the $9,600 CME gap from July.

The S&P 500 is still indecisive and hovering at mid-term support, threatening a breakdown of the 50-day MA. The index is at 3,338 and support is at 3,333. If it breaks down and holds below, it will probably represent a good buying opportunity as Masterluc suggested. A shakeout. The same goes for BTC.