Analysis

[600watt]

Here's a brand spanking new chart from the little fella who got this thread rolling in the first place all those years ago if you like that sort of thing.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/BiymtBy3-Some-short-term-thoughts/

He seems to be in a rather confident mood.

That's my point. No bull market until scam coins die. But hey just my 2 cents  

For better or worse you will make more money on the shitforks getting in now than you will on BTC in a bubbly scenario, and exiting at the right moment of course. That's not tasteful but it's almost certainly true. It's 'Bitcoin' but it's 'cheaper' and that shit never gets old for the waves of hungry newcomers. They will never die. They may fade over time but not this time.

wanted to merit your post because it seems rational but noticed that I just cannot do it. there are tiny traces of idealism left, lines that cannot be crossed...

[marcus_of_augustus]

whoa, masterluc delivers the goods.

This is so far outside most expectations ... so it could actually be right.

[drays]

Here's a brand spanking new chart from the little fella who got this thread rolling in the first place all those years ago if you like that sort of thing.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/BiymtBy3-Some-short-term-thoughts/

He seems to be in a rather confident mood.

Thanks for posting this. Sometimes I forget this thread is actually dedicated to masterluc's analysis. We're just hanging out here
Looks quite encouraging, especially after viewing an intimidating nightmare scenario posted by the second analyst I follow here.. Frankly speaking, I currently only follow those two, and when looked together, they provide somewhat strange view.. lets call it 'balanced' view

That's my point. No bull market until scam coins die. But hey just my 2 cents  

For better or worse you will make more money on the shitforks getting in now than you will on BTC in a bubbly scenario, and exiting at the right moment of course. That's not tasteful but it's almost certainly true. It's 'Bitcoin' but it's 'cheaper' and that shit never gets old for the waves of hungry newcomers. They will never die. They may fade over time but not this time.

Well, thats true... But I guess different people here mean different things saying 'shitcoins' or 'shitforks'... Wouldn't elaborate more on the topic, as "the little fella who got this thread rolling in the first place" is a prominent altcoin hater, so discussing alts might be not appropriate here.

[kellrobinson]

whoa, masterluc delivers the goods.

This is so far outside most expectations ... so it could actually be right.

Bitcoin will moon as it has done before.
Luc has the direction right, but as for the timing...  I think the corn needs to build up some momentum.  We'll see gainz this year but wait until 2021 for tha monster fomo bubble, if one comes, and crash in '22.

[exstasie]

This is a very bold prediction. I personally don't predict a new all time high this year. I also believe a big crash is ahead of us, next few weeks.

With the stock market running so high above the fast DMAs, I wouldn't be surprised at a scary and severe pullback. BTC would naturally follow.

"Crash" is probably an exaggeration. If panic hits hard I could see the weekly CME gap ~$9,600 getting filled on a wick, but ultimately I think the $10K area will be confirmed as support.

As long as Bitcoin price does not cross $13800 there is no reason to be a bull.

The market has held for 5+ weeks above the yearly resistance at $10.5K. That was the first higher high since October 2019. Pretty big deal. Could it be a bull trap? Technically yes, but I wouldn't count on it and I certainly wouldn't be shorting Bitcoin right now.

[kellrobinson]

I certainly wouldn't be shorting Bitcoin right now.

Safer to short on the downside of the four-year cycle.  Right now we're just coming off a time of consolidation following the bottom.  Leaving Kansas and entering the high plains of eastern Colorado, one feels the land rising and sees the Rocky Mountains in the distance.  Denver here we come, yippy-yi-yo-ki-ay!  Pikes Peak or bust!

[ssmc2]

Monthly close today is huge

[exstasie]

Monthly close today is huge

What do you make of it? It's almost a perfect spinning top doji. I take that to mean shorter term market indecision. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinning-top.asp

In the first half of 2017, we saw multiple similar dojis followed by severe shakeouts (March-April, June-July), even though the broader market trend was ultimately bullish. I wonder if we're looking at a similar situation now.

[ssmc2]

Monthly close today is huge

What do you make of it? It's almost a perfect spinning top doji. I take that to mean shorter term market indecision. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinning-top.asp

In the first half of 2017, we saw multiple similar dojis followed by severe shakeouts (March-April, June-July), even though the broader market trend was ultimately bullish. I wonder if we're looking at a similar situation now.

That wouldn't surprise me in the least 

[Wind_FURY]

Monthly close today is huge

What do you make of it? It's almost a perfect spinning top doji. I take that to mean shorter term market indecision. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinning-top.asp

In the first half of 2017, we saw multiple similar dojis followed by severe shakeouts (March-April, June-July), even though the broader market trend was ultimately bullish. I wonder if we're looking at a similar situation now.

That wouldn't surprise me in the least  

Plus if you view the situation from a fundamental standpoint, Bitcoin is still very small. How many actual, dedicated users does it have? Less than 1% of the global population, but it's priced at "only" a 5-figure valuation.

Bitcoin's price ceiling is VERY high in my opinion.

[Wexlike]

New post by masterluc: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/KF0wThdz-Regarding-current-market-actions/

As you can see, $10k level is very important for Bitcoin and was under siege multiple times in the past. From downside... Now the battle is going on from upside. It takes more time than I personally expected, but this doesn't surprise me much when I look backwards.

If Bitcoin hold $10k on weekly basis (i.e. weekly candle will not close below) - it will be a strong ground for further growth. And I'm sure it will.

You can also see blue trend escaping from giant consolidation triangle. As long as price didn't break it down - bullish development is fine. And as long as price is at bottom trend line - my suggestion is to buy.

[exstasie]

New post by masterluc: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/KF0wThdz-Regarding-current-market-actions/

As you can see, $10k level is very important for Bitcoin and was under siege multiple times in the past. From downside... Now the battle is going on from upside. It takes more time than I personally expected, but this doesn't surprise me much when I look backwards.

If Bitcoin hold $10k on weekly basis (i.e. weekly candle will not close below) - it will be a strong ground for further growth. And I'm sure it will.

You can also see blue trend escaping from giant consolidation triangle. As long as price didn't break it down - bullish development is fine. And as long as price is at bottom trend line - my suggestion is to buy.

I suspect he is correct about the weekly candle closing above $10K. That still leaves room for a panic wick into the $9,000s and a fill of the $9,600 CME gap from July.

The S&P 500 is still indecisive and hovering at mid-term support, threatening a breakdown of the 50-day MA. The index is at 3,338 and support is at 3,333. If it breaks down and holds below, it will probably represent a good buying opportunity as Masterluc suggested. A shakeout. The same goes for BTC.

[Bossian]

Bitcoin price and S&P500 index are not correlated, I read so many of similar posts last few months but they are not correlated, just because both crashed in March and recovered since does not mean there is a correlation whatsoever. Why would they suddenly become correlated when it wasn't the case in 2019, 2018 and of course 2017  

Wait for a few months and you will see both price trajectories will be very distinct.

[exstasie]

Bitcoin price and S&P500 index are not correlated, I read so many of similar posts last few months but they are not correlated, just because both crashed in March and recovered since does not mean there is a correlation whatsoever.

It does. Correlation is about dependency. When one goes up, does the other go up and vice versa? The correlation between stocks and BTC is not perfect but it's very obvious.

Why would they suddenly become correlated when it wasn't the case in 2019, 2018 and of course 2017  

They've always been positively correlated, all the way back to when BTC price discovery began in 2010. I've discussed this at length in my thread. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5196072.msg55178480#msg55178480

[drays]

Bitcoin price and S&P500 index are not correlated, I read so many of similar posts last few months but they are not correlated, just because both crashed in March and recovered since does not mean there is a correlation whatsoever.

It does. Correlation is about dependency. When one goes up, does the other go up and vice versa? The correlation between stocks and BTC is not perfect but it's very obvious.

Sure there is a correlation. Better to say BTC is correlated to S&P the same way all stocks (and even metal ETFs!!) are correlated to the common index. When S&P500 goes up or down being dragged by mega-cap movements, almost all stocks do the same, without any apparent reason. It is almost funny to watch them moving as a herd. Sure few stocks are moving in different direction at any given moment, some may wildly surge or plunge regardless of S&P trend, but the main mass is moving with the index...

It looks like BTC is also somewhat correlated to this herd (today's movements are just another example), which could probably mean there is a big number of traders who consider BTC as just 'yet another stock', alas. I cannot be sure, but I assume that's probably the ones who entered in 2017-2020 period.

[exstasie]

Bitcoin price and S&P500 index are not correlated, I read so many of similar posts last few months but they are not correlated, just because both crashed in March and recovered since does not mean there is a correlation whatsoever.

It does. Correlation is about dependency. When one goes up, does the other go up and vice versa? The correlation between stocks and BTC is not perfect but it's very obvious.

Sure there is a correlation. Better to say BTC is correlated to S&P the same way all stocks (and even metal ETFs!!) are correlated to the common index. When S&P500 goes up or down being dragged by mega-cap movements, almost all stocks do the same, without any apparent reason. It is almost funny to watch them moving as a herd. Sure few stocks are moving in different direction at any given moment, some may wildly pump or dump regardless of S&P trend, but the main mass is moving with the index...

It looks like BTC is also somewhat correlated to this herd (today's movements are just another example), which could probably mean there is a big number of traders who consider BTC as just 'yet another stock', alas. I cannot be sure, but I assume that's probably the ones who entered in 2017-2020 period.

I think so too. The fact is that BTC is only a decade old, and it's a brand new asset class. That sort of by definition makes it a speculative, risk asset that is going to behave like stocks as people speculate about its long term growth prospects.

Institutions are the next wave of traders who plan to treat BTC as just another stock. As institutional involvement in the Bitcoin market increases, maybe the correlation will even strengthen.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Why would they suddenly become correlated when it wasn't the case in 2019, 2018 and of course 2017  

...  manipulation via leverage of cash futures makes it inevitable that powerful (government money) forces who would rather BTC didn't present a haven for fast money looking for uncorrelated assets in times of crises.

... they've been doing this with gold and silver since LTCM derivatives implosion and the Asian financial crises circa 1998

[JayJuanGee]

Why would they suddenly become correlated when it wasn't the case in 2019, 2018 and of course 2017  

...  manipulation via leverage of cash futures makes it inevitable that powerful (government money) forces who would rather BTC didn't present a haven for fast money looking for uncorrelated assets in times of crises.

... they've been doing this with gold and silver since LTCM derivatives implosion and the Asian financial crises circa 1998

I agree that government and even traditional banking institutional systems have a lot of incentives to create and to use a variety of financial tools (new ones at their disposal) to manipulate BTC in such a way that causes BTC to NOT appear any different from any other kind of investment (meaning that bitcoin is not necessarily correlated even though they are attempting to make BTC look as if it were correlated), and sure they are going to try and sure they are going to give it every last boyscout effort to accomplish - but are they going to succeed?  

That is the million dollar question.  What do you believe Marcus?

I am thinking that you can keep the BTC price within a range, until you can't.

We have witnessed those same kinds of "keeping BTC within a range" issue several times in the past with BTC... at around $500 in early 2016 and at around $2k in mid 2017.. and surely there are other historical BTC price examples of the bearwhales losing control of the situation and unable to keep BTC prices down any lower for any longer.

Bearwhales tried as fuck to keep BTC prices as low as they can and for as long as they can and below certain threshold points, but they lost control... over and over.. This time is different?  

Sure, they will try again, and they likely are trying as we post these message.  

Concededly, these days bearwhales have more tools that they can attempt to play to push the BTC price down, and if they are attempting to print BTC that they do not have, they make  well find themselves on the wrong side of a trade, too, which could be quite costly, and sure there is also more money in bitcoin now, too, including some BIGGER players like Microstrategy and some other folks who come from the traditional financial sector and who are taking various degrees of long BTC positions.  Are some of those traditional financial players just going to roll over if attempts at BTC manipulation are out of control or based on fractional reserve BTC (rehypothication), and are some of those folks who are investing into BTC continuing to buy BTC behind the scenes, after they have already taken a stake in BTC.   Have the HODLers and buyers of BTC run out of money to buy MOAR BTC?  Are they able, or not, to push BTC prices up and/or to stop BTC prices from being manipulated down, staying flat or going below certain price points... ?

BTC's 200 week moving average, for example, has been going up nearly $200 per week in recent times, and currently it is at about $6,700.  
It was at about $5,500 during the March 12, 2020 crash(dipped below $5,500 for fewer than 8 days).
It was at about $3,100 in December 2018, during the lowest BTC price point on that correction (did not get broken).
It was at nearly $1,200 in December 2017 during the most recent ATH of $19,666.
It was less than $300 in October 2015, at the start of the 2017 bullrun (that largely took two years to play out with a culmination of a blow off top from October to December 2017).

So, sure, the powers that be could attempt to manipulate BTC prices down, keep them sideways, or disallow them from going up to cause such BTC prices to appear as if they were correlated to traditional asset classes, such as equities and gold.  

Surely, I am not ruling out the possibility that they could continue to have short term success.. but how long can they keep it up? 1 year?  2 years?  4 years?  Is it possible?

Personally, I doubt that they are going to be successful to continue to argue that correlation actually exists beyond having some evidence to make short-term claims and for those failing and refusing to zoom out or to actually see BTC's actual price performance rather than what they wish it to be based on short-term charts.

[drays]

It all comes down to whether you believe the markets are free and are moving according to how traders actually feel about each particular asset; or you believe markets are conspiratorially manipulated by some super-powered entities. As to me, I don't have enough convincing evidence to prefer either view. It seems to me we might never know the answer.

Mostly unrelated offtopic generalization: its like everything else - one could think things in life depend on the actions of a man, others prefer fatalistic approach and think everything is determinated, while some believe things are defined by a powerful supervising force... And there is basically no way to prove either theory, everything could be explained based on either belief, so almost any kind of belief or religion (including atheism) exists indefinitely, coexisting with hundreds of other beliefs.

Though of course in case of markets there is at least some chance we might find the truth - only if appropriate internal documents leak out.

My level of my English isn't quite enough for complex topics... so I'd stop here..

[JayJuanGee]

It all comes down to whether you believe the markets are free and are moving according to how traders actually feel about each particular asset; or you believe markets are conspiratorially manipulated by some super-powered entities. As to me, I don't have enough convincing evidence to prefer either view. It seems to me we might never know the answer.

Mostly unrelated offtopic generalization: its like everything else - one could think things in life depend on the actions of a man, others prefer fatalistic approach and think everything is determinated, while some believe things are defined by a powerful supervising force... And there is basically no way to prove either theory, everything could be explained based on either belief, so almost any kind of belief or religion (including atheism) exists indefinitely, coexisting with hundreds of other beliefs.

Though of course in case of markets there is at least some chance we might find the truth - only if appropriate internal documents leak out.

My level of my English isn't quite enough for complex topics... so I'd stop here..

Why not both?



You cannot appreciate a situation, drays, in which there is both manipulation of the market and difficulties to manipulate going on at the same time?

I would argue that BTC had much more of a free-market reaction to and recovery from the March 12, 2020 liquidation event than did traditional markets such as equities, gold and fiat systems - however, BTC does NOT live in a vacuum, either.

It's not like BTC is not or cannot be affected by various governments printings of trillions of more dollars on an ongoing basis this year, and seeming injecting those dollars in a variety of ways that are purported to be strategic, but are likely fucking things up more than they are fixing things, especially with the level of non free-market reaction to an overall market correction that was likely needed but at the same time various non free-market reactions that are aimed at saving folks and institutions that likely do not deserve to be saved.

I would argue that BTC is much less attached from those many shenanigans than people like to argue it to be, but of course, in the short term, we are going to see some levels of synchronized price movements... and so my point remains that it seems to me that we can have both manipulation and non-manipulation going on at the same time including ONLY so far that manipulation can happen before free market forces are likely going to cause various explosions in one direction or another and hopefully, each of us is able to adequately prepare for such possible (and likely) explosions, even if we cannot have considerable certainty regarding how they are going to play out with any kind of precision.