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g4c
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March 29, 2014, 09:22:34 PM |
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Log scale chart of complete bitstamp USD history.
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Why might the latest pennant be such a different beast to the previous ones?
well, we're currently resting on the bottom support in your figure. wouldn't this model be falsified if we broke below? I guess so, falsification being proportional to the break-below amount. It would also be falsified if it broke-above too much. |
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arepo
Sr. Member
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Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
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March 29, 2014, 09:28:29 PM |
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Log scale chart of complete bitstamp USD history.
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Why might the latest pennant be such a different beast to the previous ones?
well, we're currently resting on the bottom support in your figure. wouldn't this model be falsified if we broke below? I guess so, falsification being proportional to the break-below amount. It would also be falsified if it broke-above too much. falsification tends to be a binary option. the pennant shape relies on a moving or flat support which cannot be violated except by known outliers (e.g. 135 BTCUSD data from MtGox last month). if this support is broken, then the pennant model is falsified. in other words, the model you've presented suggests that this is a market bottom. however, if we move below the last low, this model will be falsified. |
this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz
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windjc
Legendary
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Activity: 2156
Merit: 1070
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March 29, 2014, 09:32:45 PM |
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Log scale chart of complete bitstamp USD history.
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Why might the latest pennant be such a different beast to the previous ones?
well, we're currently resting on the bottom support in your figure. wouldn't this model be falsified if we broke below? I guess so, falsification being proportional to the break-below amount. It would also be falsified if it broke-above too much. falsification tends to be a binary option. the pennant shape relies on a moving or flat support which cannot be violated except by known outliers (e.g. 135 BTCUSD data from MtGox last month). if this support is broken, then the pennant model is falsified. in other words, the model you've presented suggests that this is a market bottom. however, if we move below the last low, this model will be falsified. Technically, I disagree. You can see the April triangle spent some time below the lower line, but this did not invalidate the data. I think it would need to break down and then the triangle would have to become resistance before this was invalidated. |
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oda.krell
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Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
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March 29, 2014, 09:47:11 PM |
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Log scale chart of complete bitstamp USD history.  Why might the latest pennant be such a different beast to the previous ones? Because you can have independent, i.e. fundamental reasons to believe the long term log uptrend for BTC will continue to hold, but that assumption is should probably not be based on observing a pattern 4 times and concluding it will hold a 5th time. That's simply not enough of a sample size. @arepo: yes, that's the book. The results are due to some author named Bulkowski, but the way it looks it isn't really an academic study. Still, the Kirkpatrick/Dahlquist is a great book, in case you're wondering. |
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g4c
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March 29, 2014, 10:30:05 PM
Last edit: March 29, 2014, 10:53:24 PM by g4c |
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Log scale chart of complete bitstamp USD history.
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Why might the latest pennant be such a different beast to the previous ones?
well, we're currently resting on the bottom support in your figure. wouldn't this model be falsified if we broke below? I guess so, falsification being proportional to the break-below amount. It would also be falsified if it broke-above too much. falsification tends to be a binary option. the pennant shape relies on a moving or flat support which cannot be violated except by known outliers (e.g. 135 BTCUSD data from MtGox last month). if this support is broken, then the pennant model is falsified. in other words, the model you've presented suggests that this is a market bottom. however, if we move below the last low, this model will be falsified. So far as I understand, pennants are pairs of trendlines allowing one to form a binary decision. Admittedly the fact they are drawn with a hard boundary does not suggest this. The call as to when the price breaks outside of the pennant is left to the person analysing. The majority of pennants that get charted tend to have a few excursions in them as the chartist creates them:  If one were to sample the opinion of many technical analysts, their call on "falsification" will be a fuzzy spread around the pennant. |
CORTEX7 Multi exchange Bitcoin trading client for Win, Mac, Nix, Android.
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g4c
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March 29, 2014, 10:48:27 PM |
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Log scale chart of complete bitstamp USD history. Why might the latest pennant be such a different beast to the previous ones? Because you can have independent, i.e. fundamental reasons to believe the long term log uptrend for BTC will continue to hold, but that assumption is should probably not be based on observing a pattern 4 times and concluding it will hold a 5th time. That's simply not enough of a sample size. ... Just to note, I'm not concluding anything. I would think that a sample size of 4 is statistically very significant when the full set is 4 or 5. |
CORTEX7 Multi exchange Bitcoin trading client for Win, Mac, Nix, Android.
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igorr
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March 30, 2014, 03:24:03 PM |
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Cлaвьcя, Oтeчecтвo нaшe cвoбoднoe,
Бpaтcкиx нapoдoв coюз вeкoвoй,
Пpeдкaми дaннaя мyдpocть нapoднaя!
Cлaвьcя, cтpaнa! Mы гopдимcя тoбoй!
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odin.dillinger
Newbie
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Activity: 43
Merit: 0
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March 31, 2014, 10:51:40 AM |
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God damn, I wish my itchy trigger fingers would have listened more to Master Luc(all hail). Seems like this dude is calling it correctly every single time.
Hats off and thumbs up to you.
Now, back to those TA books.
btw, can you reccomend some reading material for understanding this stuff better?
Thanks.
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masterluc (OP)
Legendary
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Activity: 938
Merit: 1013
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March 31, 2014, 10:56:30 AM |
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I just wait this shit to resolve in either direction. But indicators sjow very bearish picture  |
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myself
Legendary
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Activity: 938
Merit: 1000
chaos is fun...…damental :)
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April 03, 2014, 03:54:36 AM |
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@masterluc some trivia btcusd never went under weekly lower BB band if wee get under 400 wee make history
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Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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myself
Legendary
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Activity: 938
Merit: 1000
chaos is fun...…damental :)
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April 12, 2014, 05:09:23 AM |
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I just wait this shit to resolve in either direction. But indicators sjow very bearish picture solved |
Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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lebing
Legendary
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Activity: 1288
Merit: 1000
Enabling the maximal migration
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April 12, 2014, 05:18:43 AM |
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I just wait this shit to resolve in either direction. But indicators sjow very bearish picture solved nope. |
Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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lebing
Legendary
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Merit: 1000
Enabling the maximal migration
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April 12, 2014, 01:34:58 PM |
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looks pretty solid to me. |
Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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oda.krell
Legendary
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Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
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April 12, 2014, 02:50:02 PM |
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I just wait this shit to resolve in either direction. But indicators sjow very bearish picture
solved nope. How? It's a triangle. It broke to the downside. That means it's solved. What that means for further price action is another question, but at least in the immediate aftermath of the downwards breakout, we saw a new low, so waiting for the triangle to resolve was the right choice. |
Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure. Download the source or executables for Windows/OSX/Linux/Android from, and only from, the official Electrum homepage.
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rudius
Member
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Activity: 84
Merit: 10
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April 12, 2014, 03:14:50 PM |
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I just wait this shit to resolve in either direction. But indicators sjow very bearish picture
solved nope. How? It's a triangle. It broke to the downside. That means it's solved. What that means for further price action is another question, but at least in the immediate aftermath of the downwards breakout, we saw a new low, so waiting for the triangle to resolve was the right choice. we had a huge rejection of the downside of the triangle with volume. Sometimes there are false breakouts and retests. there are no such things as certainty. Actually, i think we will have an exit to the upside. The test of sub 400 was market manipulation to shake off weaks hands but not by the chinese as everybody think. BTC-E was a big leader to the downside. ( just my thoughts, again no such things as certainty  ) |
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myself
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 938
Merit: 1000
chaos is fun...…damental :)
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April 12, 2014, 03:16:08 PM |
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Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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lebing
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1288
Merit: 1000
Enabling the maximal migration
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April 12, 2014, 05:38:11 PM |
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I just wait this shit to resolve in either direction. But indicators sjow very bearish picture
solved nope. How? It's a triangle. It broke to the downside. That means it's solved. What that means for further price action is another question, but at least in the immediate aftermath of the downwards breakout, we saw a new low, so waiting for the triangle to resolve was the right choice. . Sometimes there are false breakouts and retests. there are no such things as certainty. Yep, took the words right from my hands. The triangle lives on. |
Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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JustAnotherSheep
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April 15, 2014, 10:32:32 AM |
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I have absolutely no idea what to make of this   The triangle has been pierced on both sides, however I feel the volume for the drop was far too low to indicate a bottom, and volume for the rally is almost nonexistent. Perhaps the triangle has been rendered obsolete, and this is a retrace of the still-relevant downtrend? |
Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
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masterluc (OP)
Legendary
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Activity: 938
Merit: 1013
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April 15, 2014, 10:42:52 AM |
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340 bottom could be the end of flat correction. Plus I see some bullish divs on daily MACD.
But price is still in very negative territory on weekly chart and also far bellow daily 200 sma.
So I think no resolution yet.
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