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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 924475 times)
lebing
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March 29, 2014, 05:11:11 PM
 #1461

What do others think of Luc's inverted cup and handle suggestion?

Its a dream. No fucking way is that going to happen.
Worst case scenarios is another dip into the low 500s, but we will not be seeing sub 500 again.



 Roll Eyes

Should have known that China would be China. Nothing is for sure in bitcoin. If it does come true that on the 15th its banned in China then 400 probably wont hold. Otherwise I would very surprised if we broke the bottom of the pennant (at 400).

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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RyNinDaCleM
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March 29, 2014, 07:55:03 PM
 #1462

If a descending triangle is bearish, stocks' ascending triangle above is bullish?  Huh

No! That's called an ending diagonal or a wedge. A triangle has either flat top/ascending bottom, flat bottom/descending top, or a more symmetrical descending top/ascending bottom.
If both lines are ascending or descending and not parallel, then it's a wedge.

masterluc
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March 29, 2014, 08:05:24 PM
 #1463

Guys. price is in negative weekly BB territory, in negative daily BB territory and additionaly bellow daily sma 200.

It could be a bullish pennant (with horizontal triangle?!) - I don't exclude. But I stay very bearish.

However this question will be resolved very soon.

PS. My pic with inverted cup and handle was invalidated of course.

arepo
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this statement is false


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March 29, 2014, 08:14:32 PM
 #1464

it's interesting to see trading sites and others say that "pattern X is generally bullish/bearish" as if they were citing a statistical study that showed this result >50% of the time. triangle continuation patterns are only continuation patterns until they break counter-trend Wink

from my own work in Bitcoin, it seems that these patterns are very sensitive to their price environments (that is if they occurred within an uptrend or dowtrend; near, below, or above the previous high/low; and if the previous movement pushed the price into overbought or oversold territory).

once the environment has been factored in, i think that there is something to these patterns having a consistent "context-sensitive" bias. but it is ridiculous to make a blanket statement about them, not only because of context-sensitivity but also because i imagine the behavior is different in different markets (stocks vs Bitcoin).

--arepo

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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oda.krell
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March 29, 2014, 08:59:03 PM
 #1465

it's interesting to see trading sites and others say that "pattern X is generally bullish/bearish" as if they were citing a statistical study that showed this result >50% of the time. triangle continuation patterns are only continuation patterns until they break counter-trend Wink

from my own work in Bitcoin, it seems that these patterns are very sensitive to their price environments (that is if they occurred within an uptrend or dowtrend; near, below, or above the previous high/low; and if the previous movement pushed the price into overbought or oversold territory).

once the environment has been factored in, i think that there is something to these patterns having a consistent "context-sensitive" bias. but it is ridiculous to make a blanket statement about them, not only because of context-sensitivity but also because i imagine the behavior is different in different markets (stocks vs Bitcoin).

--arepo

Interestingly enough, the Kirkpatrick/Dahlquist TA book has a (smallish) section on empirical studies that were done about patterns. I'll have to look up the details, but the continuation patterns flag and pennant seemed by far the most reliable ones *however* they were (IIRC) all short to midterm patterns, i.e. way shorter duration than what was proposed above (spanning from December to now).

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g4c
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March 29, 2014, 09:05:39 PM
 #1466

Log scale chart of complete bitstamp USD history.



Why might the latest pennant be such a different beast to the previous ones?

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arepo
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this statement is false


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March 29, 2014, 09:09:34 PM
 #1467

Log scale chart of complete bitstamp USD history.



Why might the latest pennant be such a different beast to the previous ones?

well, we're currently resting on the bottom support in your figure. wouldn't this model be falsified if we broke below?

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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arepo
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this statement is false


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March 29, 2014, 09:11:42 PM
 #1468

it's interesting to see trading sites and others say that "pattern X is generally bullish/bearish" as if they were citing a statistical study that showed this result >50% of the time. triangle continuation patterns are only continuation patterns until they break counter-trend Wink

from my own work in Bitcoin, it seems that these patterns are very sensitive to their price environments (that is if they occurred within an uptrend or dowtrend; near, below, or above the previous high/low; and if the previous movement pushed the price into overbought or oversold territory).

once the environment has been factored in, i think that there is something to these patterns having a consistent "context-sensitive" bias. but it is ridiculous to make a blanket statement about them, not only because of context-sensitivity but also because i imagine the behavior is different in different markets (stocks vs Bitcoin).

--arepo

Interestingly enough, the Kirkpatrick/Dahlquist TA book has a (smallish) section on empirical studies that were done about patterns. I'll have to look up the details, but the continuation patterns flag and pennant seemed by far the most reliable ones *however* they were (IIRC) all short to midterm patterns, i.e. way shorter duration than what was proposed above (spanning from December to now).

thanks for the reference. is this the book you're talking about?

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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g4c
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March 29, 2014, 09:22:34 PM
 #1469

Log scale chart of complete bitstamp USD history.
...
Why might the latest pennant be such a different beast to the previous ones?

well, we're currently resting on the bottom support in your figure. wouldn't this model be falsified if we broke below?

I guess so, falsification being proportional to the break-below amount.

It would also be falsified if it broke-above too much.

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arepo
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this statement is false


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March 29, 2014, 09:28:29 PM
 #1470

Log scale chart of complete bitstamp USD history.
...
Why might the latest pennant be such a different beast to the previous ones?

well, we're currently resting on the bottom support in your figure. wouldn't this model be falsified if we broke below?

I guess so, falsification being proportional to the break-below amount.

It would also be falsified if it broke-above too much.

falsification tends to be a binary option. the pennant shape relies on a moving or flat support which cannot be violated except by known outliers (e.g. 135 BTCUSD data from MtGox last month). if this support is broken, then the pennant model is falsified.

in other words, the model you've presented suggests that this is a market bottom. however, if we move below the last low, this model will be falsified.

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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windjc
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March 29, 2014, 09:32:45 PM
 #1471

Log scale chart of complete bitstamp USD history.
...
Why might the latest pennant be such a different beast to the previous ones?

well, we're currently resting on the bottom support in your figure. wouldn't this model be falsified if we broke below?

I guess so, falsification being proportional to the break-below amount.

It would also be falsified if it broke-above too much.

falsification tends to be a binary option. the pennant shape relies on a moving or flat support which cannot be violated except by known outliers (e.g. 135 BTCUSD data from MtGox last month). if this support is broken, then the pennant model is falsified.

in other words, the model you've presented suggests that this is a market bottom. however, if we move below the last low, this model will be falsified.

Technically, I disagree. You can see the April triangle spent some time below the lower line, but this did not invalidate the data. I think it would need to break down and then the triangle would have to become resistance before this was invalidated.
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March 29, 2014, 09:47:11 PM
 #1472

Log scale chart of complete bitstamp USD history.



Why might the latest pennant be such a different beast to the previous ones?

Because you can have independent, i.e. fundamental reasons to believe the long term log uptrend for BTC will continue to hold, but that assumption is should probably not be based on observing a pattern 4 times and concluding it will hold a 5th time. That's simply not enough of a sample size.


@arepo: yes, that's the book. The results are due to some author named Bulkowski, but the way it looks it isn't really an academic study. Still, the Kirkpatrick/Dahlquist is a great book, in case you're wondering.

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g4c
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March 29, 2014, 10:30:05 PM
Last edit: March 29, 2014, 10:53:24 PM by g4c
 #1473

Log scale chart of complete bitstamp USD history.
...
Why might the latest pennant be such a different beast to the previous ones?

well, we're currently resting on the bottom support in your figure. wouldn't this model be falsified if we broke below?

I guess so, falsification being proportional to the break-below amount.

It would also be falsified if it broke-above too much.

falsification tends to be a binary option. the pennant shape relies on a moving or flat support which cannot be violated except by known outliers (e.g. 135 BTCUSD data from MtGox last month). if this support is broken, then the pennant model is falsified.

in other words, the model you've presented suggests that this is a market bottom. however, if we move below the last low, this model will be falsified.

So far as I understand, pennants are pairs of trendlines allowing one to form a binary decision.

Admittedly the fact they are drawn with a hard boundary does not suggest this.

The call as to when the price breaks outside of the pennant is left to the person analysing.

The majority of pennants that get charted tend to have a few excursions in them as the chartist creates them:



If one were to sample the opinion of many technical analysts, their call on "falsification" will be a fuzzy spread around the pennant.



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g4c
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March 29, 2014, 10:48:27 PM
 #1474

Log scale chart of complete bitstamp USD history.



Why might the latest pennant be such a different beast to the previous ones?

Because you can have independent, i.e. fundamental reasons to believe the long term log uptrend for BTC will continue to hold, but that assumption is should probably not be based on observing a pattern 4 times and concluding it will hold a 5th time. That's simply not enough of a sample size.
...

Just to note, I'm not concluding anything.

I would think that a sample size of 4 is statistically very significant when the full set is 4 or 5.



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igorr
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March 30, 2014, 03:24:03 PM
 #1475




Cлaвьcя, Oтeчecтвo нaшe cвoбoднoe,
Бpaтcкиx нapoдoв coюз вeкoвoй,
Пpeдкaми дaннaя мyдpocть нapoднaя!
Cлaвьcя, cтpaнa! Mы гopдимcя тoбoй!
odin.dillinger
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March 31, 2014, 10:51:40 AM
 #1476

God damn, I wish my itchy trigger fingers would have listened more to Master Luc(all hail). Seems like this dude is calling it correctly every single time.

Hats off and thumbs up to you.

Now, back to those TA books.

btw, can you reccomend some reading material for understanding this stuff better?

Thanks.
masterluc
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March 31, 2014, 10:56:30 AM
 #1477

I just wait this shit to resolve in either direction. But indicators sjow very bearish picture


myself
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chaos is fun...…damental :)


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April 03, 2014, 03:54:36 AM
 #1478

@masterluc some trivia btcusd never went under weekly lower BB band if wee get under 400 wee make history

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
myself
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chaos is fun...…damental :)


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April 12, 2014, 05:09:23 AM
 #1479

I just wait this shit to resolve in either direction. But indicators sjow very bearish picture


solved

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
lebing
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April 12, 2014, 05:18:43 AM
 #1480

I just wait this shit to resolve in either direction. But indicators sjow very bearish picture


solved

nope.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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