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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 923598 times)
Queeq
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April 12, 2014, 08:33:07 AM
 #1481

What about this scenario? Critics are welcome.



Graph itself: https://www.tradingview.com/e/1QcTgU9a/

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lebing
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April 12, 2014, 01:34:58 PM
 #1482

What about this scenario? Critics are welcome.



Graph itself: https://www.tradingview.com/e/1QcTgU9a/

looks pretty solid to me.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
oda.krell
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April 12, 2014, 02:50:02 PM
 #1483

I just wait this shit to resolve in either direction. But indicators sjow very bearish picture
solved

nope.

How? It's a triangle. It broke to the downside. That means it's solved. What that means for further price action is another question, but at least in the immediate aftermath of the downwards breakout, we saw a new low, so waiting for the triangle to resolve was the right choice.

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rudius
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April 12, 2014, 03:14:50 PM
 #1484

I just wait this shit to resolve in either direction. But indicators sjow very bearish picture
solved

nope.

How? It's a triangle. It broke to the downside. That means it's solved. What that means for further price action is another question, but at least in the immediate aftermath of the downwards breakout, we saw a new low, so waiting for the triangle to resolve was the right choice.

we had a huge rejection of the downside of the triangle with volume. Sometimes there are false breakouts and retests. there are no such things as certainty.

Actually, i think we will have an exit to the upside. The test of sub 400 was market manipulation to shake off weaks hands but not by the chinese as everybody think. BTC-E was a big leader to the downside. ( just my thoughts, again no such things as certainty Wink )
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April 12, 2014, 03:16:08 PM
 #1485

nope.
yep is solved

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
lebing
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April 12, 2014, 05:38:11 PM
 #1486

I just wait this shit to resolve in either direction. But indicators sjow very bearish picture
solved

nope.

How? It's a triangle. It broke to the downside. That means it's solved. What that means for further price action is another question, but at least in the immediate aftermath of the downwards breakout, we saw a new low, so waiting for the triangle to resolve was the right choice.

we had a huge rejection of the downside of the triangle with volume. Sometimes there are false breakouts and retests. there are no such things as certainty.


Yep, took the words right from my hands. The triangle lives on.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
JustAnotherSheep
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April 15, 2014, 10:32:32 AM
 #1487

I have absolutely no idea what to make of this Huh



The triangle has been pierced on both sides, however I feel the volume for the drop was far too low to indicate a bottom, and volume for the rally is almost nonexistent. Perhaps the triangle has been rendered obsolete, and this is a retrace of the still-relevant downtrend?

Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
masterluc
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April 15, 2014, 10:42:52 AM
 #1488

340 bottom could be the end of flat correction. Plus I see some bullish divs on daily MACD.

But price is still in very negative territory on weekly chart and also far bellow daily 200 sma.

So I think no resolution yet.

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April 15, 2014, 10:49:00 AM
 #1489

hope there will be no big ping again, but.. there is no pong without ping? still...
devphp
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April 15, 2014, 10:51:52 AM
 #1490

waiting for a ping  Grin
igorr
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April 15, 2014, 12:43:36 PM
 #1491

it is just manipulation with price the same as 2.mart 2014 year

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April 15, 2014, 03:13:59 PM
 #1492

it is just manipulation with price the same as 2.mart 2014 year

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$0 by september eh igorr? Cheesy

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zimmah
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April 15, 2014, 04:27:50 PM
 #1493

I have absolutely no idea what to make of this Huh



The triangle has been pierced on both sides, however I feel the volume for the drop was far too low to indicate a bottom, and volume for the rally is almost nonexistent. Perhaps the triangle has been rendered obsolete, and this is a retrace of the still-relevant downtrend?


i'm no market expert or anything, but couldn't the low volumes at the bottom be fuel for an even bigger rush?

Consider this:

For months a lot of people have been patiently waiting for the price to drop. and it did drop to $340ish eventually. If for a week or so the price seems to be stable at $400+ or even rising (even if it rises with 1% a day) all these people who were waiting for cheap coins may lose faith that the price will ever reach sub-340 again and will panicbuy, as soon as some of them buy, the price wil rise even more, triggering a chain reaction of panicbuys and therefore a new rush with a very high volume.

Is this a plausible scenario? I think so, but like i said, i'm not an expert.
rudius
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April 15, 2014, 04:42:08 PM
 #1494

I have absolutely no idea what to make of this Huh



The triangle has been pierced on both sides, however I feel the volume for the drop was far too low to indicate a bottom, and volume for the rally is almost nonexistent. Perhaps the triangle has been rendered obsolete, and this is a retrace of the still-relevant downtrend?


i'm no market expert or anything, but couldn't the low volumes at the bottom be fuel for an even bigger rush?

Consider this:

For months a lot of people have been patiently waiting for the price to drop. and it did drop to $340ish eventually. If for a week or so the price seems to be stable at $400+ or even rising (even if it rises with 1% a day) all these people who were waiting for cheap coins may lose faith that the price will ever reach sub-340 again and will panick buy, as soon as some of them buy, the price wil rise even more, triggering a chain reaction of panicbuys and therefore a new rush with a very high volume.

Is this a plausible scenario? I think so, but like i said, i'm not an expert.

this is quite possible. There is 2 trendline to break in order to trigger panick buying. (linear ang log trendline).

And for the volume, i find it very good. Price was rejected violently (sub 400 level) in a market where every body was on the line except sellers.we will see more end more volume as we will make it to 1000$

But of course, to keep it interesting, we will have flash crashes to shake off weak holder along the way.
cbutters
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April 15, 2014, 08:33:31 PM
 #1495

Here is what you are all missing....
The charts don't matter unless they are the leading exchange's charts:



China never broke down on the triangle, they broke up... thus we follow like the blind sheep we are right now.

EDIT: I'm not complaining.... lets go to the moon.
g4c
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April 15, 2014, 08:48:31 PM
 #1496

as were talking about charts, here's the whole data set on a log scale.

the first trade being around 5c on good ol' MtGox:



I predict (I ask nobody to believe me and I do not claim 100% certainty) it will stay above the lower trend until at least 2016 by which time the price will be >$20k/BTC and then the volatility will be much less, no more bubbles. It will then slowly transition into linear growth and then rise to an asymptote of saturation >$50k/BTC and then trade like a "stable" forex.

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cbutters
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April 15, 2014, 09:00:35 PM
 #1497

as were talking about charts, here's the whole data set on a log scale.

the first trade being around 5c on good ol' MtGox:



I predict (I ask nobody to believe me and I do not claim 100% certainty) it will stay above the lower trend until at least 2016 by which time the price will be >$20k/BTC and then the volatility will be much less, no more bubbles. It will then slowly transition into linear growth and then rise to an asymptote of saturation >$50k/BTC and then trade like a "stable" forex.

This is a lovely chart... thank you very much for it.
g4c
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April 15, 2014, 09:19:42 PM
 #1498

This is a lovely chart... thank you very much for it.

You're welcome, glad you like it Smiley

Here's an extrapolation of the same chart:


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lebing
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April 21, 2014, 09:09:21 AM
Last edit: April 21, 2014, 09:41:23 AM by lebing
 #1499

Just need some volume for confirmation and then the end of the bear?  Shocked



http://imgur.com/XAlilkl

(edited because for some reason imgur is blocked today...)

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
segeln
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April 21, 2014, 09:50:07 AM
 #1500

sorry TA-Guys (some of them are noobs):
an intraday Violation ist not considered to be a breach of a line.
It should last more than 1 day, then we can say the trend is broken (except of "false breakouts")
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