Analysis

[BowieMan]

I wonder if things are looking this bearish, or at least slightly bearish / hidden bearish, why haven't we broken down by now? If everything's this volatile, I guess we could've gone down by now!

[1713955393]

1713955393

[windjc]

Is there not also hidden bullish between bottom #1 ($380) and #2 ($400), and regular bullish between #2 and #3 ($340)  

Maybe they counteract each other and we will go sideways forever

I think they already worked out

Any downside targets you are willing to share, masterluc? It's looking pretty bearish. Are we in for the full 3-year bear market?

That would make perfect sense.

What these charts are not accounting for are the flight of coins from exchanges and the massive increase of off exchange buying that is currently going on. Traders are trading fibs and EWs and other points of support and resistance. But underneath the skin of bitcoin, there's a volcano hidden that these charts cant show us.

A question - why, now that the price is so much higher than a year ago, is ask depth so very very much lower??
Yes bid depth is lower too, but that can be accounted for by the rise in price. Ask depth can't.

A large portion of that can be attributed to the hodl... Since off exchange trade doesn't influence price, I say it's irrelevant except that volumes on our charts are lower. Off-exchange trade won't magically make the price higher on-exchange, or spark the next Bull run, so who cares? The depth charts are not indicative of the amount of supply OR demand on the exchanges, so they don't matter either.

There is another reason why off-exchange trade even happens. There is of course the well known reason of zero counter party risk. However, when large buyers (ie supposed hedge funds) are buying off-exchange, it's because they want to avoid the regulation side. They don't need to verify with an exchange, therefore they cannot be reported for the amount of Fiat that they are moving around, they have no worries of capital gains since it cannot be proven how much was paid for said coins. The whole process stay a little bit more anonymous than going through an exchange. I would bet, that is equal at a minimum and possibly the biggest reason why the off-exchange trade is happening.

I disagree. The price is several times higher than it was a year ago. There is price wise less reason to HODL now. Unless you are suggesting that all bitcoin owners are conspiring.

I think the lack of sell pressure is because of an increase in off exchange buying. The miners are the ones that can put 3600 coins a day on the exchanges. Where are these coins? The miners have bills.

Also to assume that off exchange buying doesn't effect price, it certainly can effect supply. And if supply is less than demand, and demand is waiting off exchange looking for more supply, that is a combustible situation. It's exactly the situation capable of causing another bubble. "Patient" money suddenly forced to chase price.

[tarmi]

I am with masterluc on this one.

I see a lot of selling pressure on stamp. Someone is trying hard to keep the price above 580 $ mark, but someone is unloading big time.

I just cant see us breaking 620 any time soon.

[sumantso]

Is there not also hidden bullish between bottom #1 ($380) and #2 ($400), and regular bullish between #2 and #3 ($340) 

Maybe they counteract each other and we will go sideways forever

I think they already worked out

Any downside targets you are willing to share, masterluc? It's looking pretty bearish. Are we in for the full 3-year bear market?

Still wondering if the multi year bear scenario is going to play out. Any thoughts on these from our charters?

[oda.krell]

Is there not also hidden bullish between bottom #1 ($380) and #2 ($400), and regular bullish between #2 and #3 ($340)  

Maybe they counteract each other and we will go sideways forever

I think they already worked out

Any downside targets you are willing to share, masterluc? It's looking pretty bearish. Are we in for the full 3-year bear market?

Still wondering if the multi year bear scenario is going to play out. Any thoughts on these from our charters?

Depends on how you define 'bear scenario'. I can see us trading between 400 and 800 for another year (though I don't consider it very likely). That's "bearish" if you are part of the to da moon NOW crowd. On the other hand, I don't see much chance for a new correction low. Going back to low 500s: quite possible. High 400s: maybe. 300s: very unlikely imo, absent of some major news driven flash crash.

[oda.krell]

Hidden bearish MACD divergence on daily chart detected

Is there not also hidden bullish between bottom #1 ($380) and #2 ($400), and regular bullish between #2 and #3 ($340) 

Maybe they counteract each other and we will go sideways forever

More recent (hidden) bullish div on daily RSI, Fisher:

[molecular]

Since off exchange trade doesn't influence price, I say it's irrelevant except that volumes on our charts are lower.

It doesn't directly influence price.

However: a off-exchange deal influences the market indirectly: maybe the seller would've sold on market instead, so the supply is withheld. Maybe the seller re-buys coins on the market because he now has less coins. Same for the buyer.

It's most clear with a miner who has to sell to cover fiat cost: hadn't he managed to sell off-exchange, he would sell on on-exchange.

Maybe it's not so clear-cut with early adopters: maybe they wouldn't have sold had they not been contacted with a good offer to sell a sizable chunk, maybe even invisibly to the tax man.

So I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle: off-exchange trades do influence the price on the exchanges indirectly, but probably not to the full extent.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Is there not also hidden bullish between bottom #1 ($380) and #2 ($400), and regular bullish between #2 and #3 ($340)  

Maybe they counteract each other and we will go sideways forever

I think they already worked out

Any downside targets you are willing to share, masterluc? It's looking pretty bearish. Are we in for the full 3-year bear market?

That would make perfect sense.

What these charts are not accounting for are the flight of coins from exchanges and the massive increase of off exchange buying that is currently going on. Traders are trading fibs and EWs and other points of support and resistance. But underneath the skin of bitcoin, there's a volcano hidden that these charts cant show us.

A question - why, now that the price is so much higher than a year ago, is ask depth so very very much lower??
Yes bid depth is lower too, but that can be accounted for by the rise in price. Ask depth can't.

A large portion of that can be attributed to the hodl... Since off exchange trade doesn't influence price, I say it's irrelevant except that volumes on our charts are lower. Off-exchange trade won't magically make the price higher on-exchange, or spark the next Bull run, so who cares? The depth charts are not indicative of the amount of supply OR demand on the exchanges, so they don't matter either.

There is another reason why off-exchange trade even happens. There is of course the well known reason of zero counter party risk. However, when large buyers (ie supposed hedge funds) are buying off-exchange, it's because they want to avoid the regulation side. They don't need to verify with an exchange, therefore they cannot be reported for the amount of Fiat that they are moving around, they have no worries of capital gains since it cannot be proven how much was paid for said coins. The whole process stay a little bit more anonymous than going through an exchange. I would bet, that is equal at a minimum and possibly the biggest reason why the off-exchange trade is happening.

I disagree. The price is several times higher than it was a year ago. There is price wise less reason to HODL now. Unless you are suggesting that all bitcoin owners are conspiring.

I think the lack of sell pressure is because of an increase in off exchange buying. The miners are the ones that can put 3600 coins a day on the exchanges. Where are these coins? The miners have bills.

Also to assume that off exchange buying doesn't effect price, it certainly can effect supply. And if supply is less than demand, and demand is waiting off exchange looking for more supply, that is a combustible situation. It's exactly the situation capable of causing another bubble. "Patient" money suddenly forced to chase price.

Not conspiring, but you can't tell me that a huge amount of people here don't chant "HODL HODL HODL". Now, I know there is more to Bitcoin than just this forum, but I'm sure it could be considered representative of the whole.

The miners have never put every coin on the exchanges. Before the reward drop to 3600/day, there was no way we were seeing 7200/day of freshly mined coins. Plus, the volume on exchanges would easily swallow that up anyway. I don't think this is entirely the issue we're seeing. I would think it's more along the lines of the collective of the three. Half the reward, off-exchange buying and the hodl that is lessening the total supply on exchanges. This is IF there is actually less on exchanges. This is an unknown except by exchange operators. Shallow depth doesn't necessarily mean less available, because they might not be in an order at that moment.

This "patient" money won't chase because they don't use exchanges. They may offer more to the entity they are buying from, but that isn't directly (that was for molecular ) causing a price rise on the exchanges since they use the exchange price and offer a few % more. The exchange price dictates what they are willing to pay, not the other way around. I get your point that lowered supply on exchanges causes an excess demand situation, so it's the exchange participants that make the price rise and then the off-exchange price will rise. This also assumes that buyers aren't lessened by off-exchange buying.

Every coin that is sold, was also bought. There are plenty of coins waiting to be sold, but just haven't hit their selling point yet. Whether that is their personal profit zone, or their personal panic zone, they haven't hit it yet. Enough rise as well as enough drop will bring these coins out at some point.

[windjc]

Is there not also hidden bullish between bottom #1 ($380) and #2 ($400), and regular bullish between #2 and #3 ($340)  

Maybe they counteract each other and we will go sideways forever

I think they already worked out

Any downside targets you are willing to share, masterluc? It's looking pretty bearish. Are we in for the full 3-year bear market?

That would make perfect sense.

What these charts are not accounting for are the flight of coins from exchanges and the massive increase of off exchange buying that is currently going on. Traders are trading fibs and EWs and other points of support and resistance. But underneath the skin of bitcoin, there's a volcano hidden that these charts cant show us.

A question - why, now that the price is so much higher than a year ago, is ask depth so very very much lower??
Yes bid depth is lower too, but that can be accounted for by the rise in price. Ask depth can't.

A large portion of that can be attributed to the hodl... Since off exchange trade doesn't influence price, I say it's irrelevant except that volumes on our charts are lower. Off-exchange trade won't magically make the price higher on-exchange, or spark the next Bull run, so who cares? The depth charts are not indicative of the amount of supply OR demand on the exchanges, so they don't matter either.

There is another reason why off-exchange trade even happens. There is of course the well known reason of zero counter party risk. However, when large buyers (ie supposed hedge funds) are buying off-exchange, it's because they want to avoid the regulation side. They don't need to verify with an exchange, therefore they cannot be reported for the amount of Fiat that they are moving around, they have no worries of capital gains since it cannot be proven how much was paid for said coins. The whole process stay a little bit more anonymous than going through an exchange. I would bet, that is equal at a minimum and possibly the biggest reason why the off-exchange trade is happening.

I disagree. The price is several times higher than it was a year ago. There is price wise less reason to HODL now. Unless you are suggesting that all bitcoin owners are conspiring.

I think the lack of sell pressure is because of an increase in off exchange buying. The miners are the ones that can put 3600 coins a day on the exchanges. Where are these coins? The miners have bills.

Also to assume that off exchange buying doesn't effect price, it certainly can effect supply. And if supply is less than demand, and demand is waiting off exchange looking for more supply, that is a combustible situation. It's exactly the situation capable of causing another bubble. "Patient" money suddenly forced to chase price.

Not conspiring, but you can't tell me that a huge amount of people here don't chant "HODL HODL HODL". Now, I know there is more to Bitcoin than just this forum, but I'm sure it could be considered representative of the whole.

The miners have never put every coin on the exchanges. Before the reward drop to 3600/day, there was no way we were seeing 7200/day of freshly mined coins. Plus, the volume on exchanges would easily swallow that up anyway. I don't think this is entirely the issue we're seeing. I would think it's more along the lines of the collective of the three. Half the reward, off-exchange buying and the hodl that is lessening the total supply on exchanges. This is IF there is actually less on exchanges. This is an unknown except by exchange operators. Shallow depth doesn't necessarily mean less available, because they might not be in an order at that moment.

This "patient" money won't chase because they don't use exchanges. They may offer more to the entity they are buying from, but that isn't directly (that was for molecular ) causing a price rise on the exchanges since they use the exchange price and offer a few % more. The exchange price dictates what they are willing to pay, not the other way around. I get your point that lowered supply on exchanges causes an excess demand situation, so it's the exchange participants that make the price rise and then the off-exchange price will rise. This also assumes that buyers aren't lessened by off-exchange buying.

Every coin that is sold, was also bought. There are plenty of coins waiting to be sold, but just haven't hit their selling point yet. Whether that is their personal profit zone, or their personal panic zone, they haven't hit it yet. Enough rise as well as enough drop will bring these coins out at some point.

I still disagree on the "patient" money won't chase. Fortress chased in 2013. Institutional money is NOT as smart as everyone thinks its is. Some players are smart, but not most perhaps. Its kinda like VCs. A lot of VCs aren't that smart. Look how much money is getting thrown into stupid bitcoin projects and start ups. And its like that with every fad - and by fad I do not mean useless - just popular in the VC world.

Patient money will absolutely buy on exchange. They just dont want to. But if/when it becomes their only choice - they will go to Coinbase.

[masterluc]

Bitcoin is on one step from long dramatic selloff imho.

Global stocks are about to crash. This monopoly game is almost over and all money and property will be returned back to the box.

[everbox]

 Thanks for your analysis I will hold and be patient, waiting for the higher price 

[Hfleer]

Bitcoin is on one step from long dramatic selloff imho.

Global stocks are about to crash. This monopoly game is almost over and all money and property will be returned back to the box.

And what do you suggest? Holding fiat can not be the solution

[Wekkel]

Bitcoin is on one step from long dramatic selloff imho.

Global stocks are about to crash. This monopoly game is almost over and all money and property will be returned back to the box.

And what do you suggest? Holding fiat can not be the solution

Holding real money thus.

[N12]

Bitcoin is on one step from long dramatic selloff imho.

Global stocks are about to crash. This monopoly game is almost over and all money and property will be returned back to the box.

And what do you suggest? Holding fiat can not be the solution

If you see a deflationary collapse like 2008 coming where, you know, everything collapses vs. fiat currency ... Why not? Is the point of speculation to preserve and increase purchasing power or is it some sort of feel good mentality?

[Ozziecoin]

Bitcoin is on one step from long dramatic selloff imho.

Global stocks are about to crash. This monopoly game is almost over and all money and property will be returned back to the box.

And what do you suggest? Holding fiat can not be the solution

If you see a deflationary collapse like 2008 coming where, you know, everything collapses vs. fiat currency ... Why not? Is the point of speculation to preserve and increase purchasing power or is it some sort of feel good mentality?

Or sections of society have no money and switch to using digital currencies. Would be more efficient than bartering.

[HarmonLi]

Bitcoin is on one step from long dramatic selloff imho.

Global stocks are about to crash. This monopoly game is almost over and all money and property will be returned back to the box.

And what do you suggest? Holding fiat can not be the solution

If you see a deflationary collapse like 2008 coming where, you know, everything collapses vs. fiat currency ... Why not? Is the point of speculation to preserve and increase purchasing power or is it some sort of feel good mentality?

What are you saying is collapsing then? The stock market, the FIAT currencies, governments? Or do you also think that Bitcoin collapses? Wouldn't bitcoin be a perfect haven against a collapsing 'traditional' economy?

[hdbuck]

Bitcoin is on one step from long dramatic selloff imho.

Global stocks are about to crash. This monopoly game is almost over and all money and property will be returned back to the box.

And what do you suggest? Holding fiat can not be the solution

If you see a deflationary collapse like 2008 coming where, you know, everything collapses vs. fiat currency ... Why not? Is the point of speculation to preserve and increase purchasing power or is it some sort of feel good mentality?

What are you saying is collapsing then? The stock market, the FIAT currencies, governments? Or do you also think that Bitcoin collapses? Wouldn't bitcoin be a perfect haven against a collapsing 'traditional' economy?

thats what they want you to think but there is no hiding actually... 

[HeliKopterBen]

Bitcoin is on one step from long dramatic selloff imho.

Global stocks are about to crash. This monopoly game is almost over and all money and property will be returned back to the box.

And what do you suggest? Holding fiat can not be the solution

If you see a deflationary collapse like 2008 coming where, you know, everything collapses vs. fiat currency ... Why not? Is the point of speculation to preserve and increase purchasing power or is it some sort of feel good mentality?

It would be easy to agree with this but the only caveat is fiat creation by central banks and the potential for future fiat creation by central banks.  Frankly, I don't think anybody knows how this will affect markets going forward.  A deflationary collapse would have to be swift and powerful, which is definitely possible.  I believe we will see volatility increasing in fiat currencies with wild swings on both the deflationary and inflationary sides.  The aftermath will leave bitcoin and possibly a select few other chains emerge as dominant money and global finance and gold as a last resort backup storage of wealth imho.

[oda.krell]

Bitcoin is on one step from long dramatic selloff imho.

Global stocks are about to crash. This monopoly game is almost over and all money and property will be returned back to the box.

Doom and gloom, baby. Doom and gloom.

The problem with predictions like that is they're almost impossible to falsify... "dramatic selloff" implies a real crash. A new capitulation low. Say, going back to $300, maybe even lower.

Or maybe not. Let's say price is going down another leg, hitting $500, maybe even high $400s. The prediction will "sound" right as well afterwards, or at least some will claim it does (while I would hardly call it "dramatic").

Same for the stock markets. "About to crash", or "entering a longer bear market"? The two are not the same, but a vague enough statement can afterwards be claimed to have "predicted" it.

[windjc]

Bitcoin is on one step from long dramatic selloff imho.

Global stocks are about to crash. This monopoly game is almost over and all money and property will be returned back to the box.

Doom and gloom, baby. Doom and gloom.

The problem with predictions like that is they're almost impossible to falsify... "dramatic selloff" implies a real crash. A new capitulation low. Say, going back to $300, maybe even lower.

Or maybe not. Let's say price is going down another leg, hitting $500, maybe even high $400s. The prediction will "sound" right as well afterwards, or at least some will claim it does (while I would hardly call it "dramatic").

Same for the stock markets. "About to crash", or "entering a longer bear market"? The two are not the same, but a vague enough statement can afterwards be claimed to have "predicted" it.

Good kings all around. Luc has been prescient several times before and we should give him props for that.

In addition, it doesn't take a rocker scientist to suggest stocks are way overbought. And it's entirely possible that if the stock market goes down I a big way that bitcoin could too - although there is no real historical precedent got this.

However, we also should consider, reading over Lucs most recent posts, that there is a certain amount of regional stress he is currently over involving where he resides. This may be causing him to have a less than well rounded and objective view of the current world financial markets.

It seems like doom and bloomers have been around forever and they, for several reasons, will always be.