Analysis

[devphp]

$400 should be able to hold. However, the pessimistic scenario seems to be unfolding, which means we probably won't see $1000 for another 12 months.

[1714020463]

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[Schickeria]

I feel 400 will be start of something not good

My personal Maya doomster (jailed in my basement) is saying something similar. When begging him to precise his prophesy he's only muttering something inarticulately. Maybe you could precise yourself. Give us some scenarios, some numbers, something that is not so murky.

[thefiniteidea]

I would buy here at the bottom $480-$490 for the short term.

[JustAnotherSheep]

I would buy here at the bottom $480-$490 for the short term.

Indeed, if this level holds a while longer and MACD is allowed to cross we'll have confirmed bullish div on the hourly, which would most likely signal a spike, at least short term as you say.



But of course this is not yet certain and for all I know we could still have a last minute massive drop

[thefiniteidea]

A massive drop here would in fact be a very massive drop to sub $300...

Here's the support I am referring to:

[elebit]

Here's the support I am referring to:

How are we supposed to see any support in that picture?

[RyNinDaCleM]

Here's the support I am referring to:

How are we supposed to see any support in that picture?

Perhaps a better question would be; What is the significance of the horizontal support at ~$275? Where did it come from?

[lebing]

Here's the support I am referring to:

How are we supposed to see any support in that picture?

I think he is referring to the MA that the candle is bouncing off of in that pic.

[thefiniteidea]

Here's the support I am referring to:

How are we supposed to see any support in that picture?

I think he is referring to the MA that the candle is bouncing off of in that pic.

Lebing's got it.

Here's an updated pic with just the support I was referring to...

[masterluc]

Although ma365 showed great support in April - this was the first time this ma was useful. So i'd not trust this curve until price reacts with it  several times in a row.

[FattyMcButterpants]

Although ma365 showed great support in April - this was the first time this ma was useful. So i'd not trust this curve until price reacts with it  several times in a row.

i'd agree -- doesn't seem like enough data yet to draw much conclusion from it. are you still bearish, masterluc? it looks like there is a chance that reversal off $480 could be, but seems to lack strength to the upside now.

leaning bearish myself for now.

[masterluc]

I see bearish development so far. I don't say it may not inverse, but bearish odds rising since d/ma200 inflection.

- Under daily ma200
- Daily ma200 inflection on 6-10 June (actually first big warning sign)
- Coiled weekly BB(20) suggests development of a big move and price is moving into its negative zone
- Weekly macd bearish cross
- Strong hidden bearish divergence on daily chart mentioned few pages above

[masterluc]

I am not sure I wrote correctly "inflection" (not naturally english spoken).

I mean this - in June ma200 stopped rising and began to fall.

[thefiniteidea]

Although ma365 showed great support in April - this was the first time this ma was useful. So i'd not trust this curve until price reacts with it  several times in a row.

To be fair, I don't think this support is strong enough to hold past 6 months. However, for the short term (until October at least) I think it will hold.

Overall, I am also bearish long term (thanks to the Fed). 

[oda.krell]

I am not sure I wrote correctly "inflection" (not naturally english spoken).

I mean this - in June ma200 stopped rising and began to fall.

"Inflection point" is correct imo.

Here's the comparable 2011 view.

[Pruden]

What you two call "inflection" are relative tops and bottoms.

The inflection point is where a slope that keeps getting more and more steep starts levelling off. In masterluc's chart that would be around the 5th of February in a positive slope. In oda.krell's we have an example where he put the sign "acceleration": For a brief time the line goes down fast and suddenly (in this case) starts going down slower.

It is not needed for the slope to be zero later, though that's the case in both charts.

[oda.krell]

What you two call "inflection" are relative tops and bottoms.

The inflection point is where a slope that keeps getting more and more steep starts levelling off. In masterluc's chart that would be around the 5th of February in a positive slope. In oda.krell's we have an example where he put the sign "acceleration": For a brief time the line goes down fast and suddenly (in this case) starts going down slower.

It is not needed for the slope to be zero later, though that's the case in both charts.

Jup, you're right. Didn't really think that one through.

Edit : the observation  about the price / ma relation remains, though, but the terms were wrong.

[thefiniteidea]

There goes that support. I didn't think it would hold, but damn that was quick.

Very very bearish IMO now...

[Bimmerhead]

There goes that support. I didn't think it would hold, but damn that was quick.

Very very bearish IMO now...

What does very very bearish look like to you?  Under $400?  Under $300??

[Rampion]

There goes that support. I didn't think it would hold, but damn that was quick.

Very very bearish IMO now...

What does very very bearish look like to you?  Under $400?  Under $300??

Under $300 would definitely be extremely bearish... Around $400 is not a big deal IMO. During the April 2013 bubble the price deflated from $266 to $50 - that's a depreciation of 80%, on the contrary $400ish would only be a 65-70% depreciation compared to the $1242 top. I don't see much real drama happening if $300 is not broken on the downside, and I honestly don't see it happening.