Analysis

[masterluc]

Bah, nobody understands me =) It is so habitually, so I'm bored

[1714040800]

1714040800

[1714040800]

1714040800

[1714040800]

1714040800

[oda.krell]

What's not to understand? Close below weekly lower BB = bad, with no precedent in trading history.

Or are you saying it's a bullish sign? :D

[Pruden]

Why are so many of you speaking of it as if it had happened? The price stayed just above lower BB.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Why are so many of you speaking of it as if it had happened? The price stayed just above lower BB.

So far...

[Wary]

There is nothing special about BTC closing price, since BTC trades 24h. It's just price at random time.

But even price at random time going below 1w BB is sad. Doest it mean incoming 20x rally down? IMO, it doesn't.

We had 10x/year uptrend with 8-month bubbles on top of it. Because of the uptrend price was above EMA and therefore at beginning of bubbles it crossed higher BB.
Now [IMO] we have (slight) downtrend with dumped bubbles on top of it. Because of the downtrend price is below EMA and therefore between bubbles it crosses lower BB. Bad, but not end-of-the world. Next bubble is on schedule. Maybe dumped one (we had 2 dumped bubbles in a row in 2011-12), maybe on top of continuing downtrend. But still a bubble.  

[RyNinDaCleM]

There is nothing special about BTC closing price, since BTC trades 24h. It's just price at random time.

But even price at random time going below 1w BB is sad. Doest it mean incoming 20x rally down? IMO, it doesn't.

We had 10x/year uptrend with 8-month bubbles on top of it. Because of the uptrend price was above EMA and at beginning of bubbles it crossed higher BB.
Now [IMO] we have (slight) downtrend with dumped bubbles on top of it. Because of the downtrend price is below EMA and between bubbles it crosses lower BB. Bad, but not end-of-the world. Next bubble is on schedule. Maybe dumped one (we had 2 dumped bubbles in a row in 2011-12), maybe on top of continuing downtrend. But still a bubble. 

Except it's not a random time. It's 00:00 UTC EVERY time. Sure it's an arbitrary timezone, but as long as there is a standard that everyone uses, it is consistent and gives you the information needed between 00:00:00 and 23:59:59 every day, every week, always. The significance is that over the course of 7 days (equally spaced) we had enough selling to threaten the lower BB. No it doesn't mean 20x down if broken, but it does strengthen the bear market, and while we are held down by it, we could see very deep selling.

It didn't happen yet. It may not, but there is a very good possibility that it will. So, for now, the Bitcoin depression has been held off. This could turn into a nice bounce here, but there is still time for it to happen next week, or the week after that...

[Wary]

There is nothing special about BTC closing price, since BTC trades 24h. It's just price at random time.

But even price at random time going below 1w BB is sad. Doest it mean incoming 20x rally down? IMO, it doesn't.

We had 10x/year uptrend with 8-month bubbles on top of it. Because of the uptrend price was above EMA and at beginning of bubbles it crossed higher BB.
Now [IMO] we have (slight) downtrend with dumped bubbles on top of it. Because of the downtrend price is below EMA and between bubbles it crosses lower BB. Bad, but not end-of-the world. Next bubble is on schedule. Maybe dumped one (we had 2 dumped bubbles in a row in 2011-12), maybe on top of continuing downtrend. But still a bubble.  

Except it's not a random time. It's 00:00 UTC EVERY time. Sure it's an arbitrary timezone, but as long as there is a standard that everyone uses, it is consistent and gives you the information needed between 00:00:00 and 23:59:59 every day, every week, always. The significance is that over the course of 7 days (equally spaced) we had enough selling to threaten the lower BB. No it doesn't mean 20x down if broken, but it does strengthen the bear market, and while we are held down by it, we could see very deep selling.

It didn't happen yet. It may not, but there is a very good possibility that it will. So, for now, the Bitcoin depression has been held off. This could turn into a nice bounce here, but there is still time for it to happen next week, or the week after that...

I agree, it is exact time, but it's random in other sense. In stock trade closing time does matter because it's followed by non-trading period and during that period anything affecting the price can happen but you won't be able to react. So, to reduce risk exposure, daytraders try to close their positions by that time. That's why the closing time matters. It fixes results of the day and expected changes of the night. But in BTC trade nothing special happens at 23:59:59, there is no reasons to close your positions by that time.  It that sense this time is random and as such carries less significance than stock trading one.

[HeliKopterBen]

I am bullish on bitcoin but I will admit the charts look a bit ominous.  This is more or less what a crash fractal would look like if it were to happen with downside acceleration.  Excuse my drawing skills.  Also, this is a crashy time of year through October.  If we can make it into November and above that upper trendline, then it would negate this pattern and the waters may be safe again. 

[Zarathustra]

Just realized that bitcoin price has never closed below weekly lower bb in history. More than, price never hit lower-equal than -1 deviation on weekly timescale.

Hey Master! Bitcoin exchanges never close! They are open all the time. That's the difference to the old world.

[oda.krell]

I think a lot of people in here are under the misconception that closing price is completely uninformative in a market that is traded 24/7. It is not.

It might carry a bit less weight than in a traditional market with actual closing times of trading, but it still carries information on where the market moved, or stopped moving, towards the end of the candle time range. That alone makes close informative, even if the market never actually closes.

[h3speros]

sense in TA comes from how past affect people who makes decisions about future, UTC closing price surely can be one thing that affect people decisions

there's no point trying to find "traditional" or "nature" reason from TA, you have to understand its own social/psychological mode of action

im not native english speaker/writer so bare with my choice of words

[Void_80]

how're there Lucif's shorts i wonder....
both of them....

[Wary]

I think a lot of people in here are under the misconception that closing price is completely uninformative in a market that is traded 24/7. It is not.

It might carry a bit less weight than in a traditional market with actual closing times of trading, but it still carries information on where the market moved, or stopped moving, towards the end of the candle time range. That alone makes close informative, even if the market never actually closes.

After thinking it over I have to agree with you and h3speros. Closing price carries more info than I thought. Especially considering that in TA whatever people believe to be true becomes true.

[masterluc]

Don't hurry to bury hehe ;-)

[h3speros]

Don't hurry to bury hehe ;-)

i have to admit that i don't know what you mean with this sentence?=)

[hdbuck]

Don't hurry to bury hehe ;-)

i have to admit that i don't know what you mean with this sentence?=)

thats on purpose. he is never wrong. ^^

[h3speros]

Don't hurry to bury hehe ;-)

i have to admit that i don't know what you mean with this sentence?=)

thats on purpose. he is never wrong. ^^

based on sentences that i do understand, he has made some very good calls

[windjc]

Don't hurry to bury hehe ;-)

My interpretation is that he is simply saying that the market is in no hurry to drop below the weekly lower BB and thus "bury" the market.

I dont necessarily interpret this to mean its not going to happen. Just that, its not in a hurry to today.

[vanobe]

Do you think bitcoin's still going down in the long run then?

[Wary]

Don't hurry to bury hehe ;-)

My interpretation is that he is simply saying that the market is in no hurry to drop below the weekly lower BB and thus "bury" the market.
I dont necessarily interpret this to mean its not going to happen. Just that, its not in a hurry to today.

My interpretation is that he was probably answering to "how're there Lucif's shorts i wonder.... Huh Kiss both of them...." and the answer probably means "Don't hurry to bury me, I'm not hurt by the shorts". Which, in turn can mean that
a) either shorts were small or that
b) he had covered them or that
c) market will still go down, just wait.

Pick your version.